nature boy
Member
"Dopey Clinton News Network says I'm behind Crooked Hilary! No way! Pathetic!"
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
- Start date
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"Dopey Clinton News Network says I'm behind Crooked Hilary! No way! Pathetic!"
A) I'm annoyed at a second big polling miss this season
B) I'm unhappy this race has not accelerated on the Dem side like it has on the R side. Trump "picked up momentum" as time went on and he way overperformed in Indiana. Clinton still is not consolidating whites. Obviously this is because Bernie is a better and less "regional" candidate than Cruz is, but it's weird she hasn't shifted the numbers in any significant way.
C) I don't care if Bernie stays in but at this point the whattaboutism on Clinton should be curtailed. She had really shifted her messaging and rhetoric by the end of April. He should do the same.
D) The media IS treating it as a big win for him. NYT Headline is "Sanders rebounds" instead of "Sanders narrow win means nothing, praise Queen"
E) Clinton still seems to struggle in open primaries, which is not abnormal but becoming difficult to understand why all the pollsters aren't getting turnout right.
B) I'm unhappy this race has not accelerated on the Dem side like it has on the R side. Trump "picked up momentum" as time went on and he way overperformed in Indiana. Clinton still is not consolidating whites. Obviously this is because Bernie is a better and less "regional" candidate than Cruz is, but it's weird she hasn't shifted the numbers in any significant way.
C) I don't care if Bernie stays in but at this point the whattaboutism on Clinton should be curtailed. She had really shifted her messaging and rhetoric by the end of April. He should do the same.
D) The media IS treating it as a big win for him. NYT Headline is "Sanders rebounds" instead of "Sanders narrow win means nothing, praise Queen"
E) Clinton still seems to struggle in open primaries, which is not abnormal but becoming difficult to understand why all the pollsters aren't getting turnout right.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Indiana tough to poll due to robocalling law. Part of it is also Clinton not investing in Indiana. Every campaign invested in Indiana except Clinton, so that accounts for lackluster GOTV for her campaign too. You aren't reaching that many more voters without money in state, on TV, on ground, in mail.
Part of it is how Dem primaries work. Even Kerry didn't clinch nomination with just pledged delegates. While on GOP side, that's not the case. So white people keep believing in this false hope that Bernie can be the nominee. And Trump is helping Bernie because people are going Bernie can beat Trump too.
Clinton needs 200 more delegates to clinch nomination. Yes, I included Supers.
Bernie won't shift. He is an idiot. Asshole. Senile. Grandpa. The sooner he goes back to being a do-nothing Senator from Vermont with no achievements the happier I will be.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Nothing is impossible in Politics.
The good news is his chances are slim. The bad news is they're not zero. That in itself is terrifying.
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
plagiarize
Banned
If you're on the ticket, there's absolutely a chance.
benjipwns
Banned
A competitive and unified Libertarian Party.
Isn't Bernie staying in solid insurance against a potential indictment?
Technically no, but Hillary is a risky proposition. Terrible favorable numbers (mainly among Republicans, but Independents are a tough sell as well), and an ongoing criminal investigation.
I'm somewhat nervous, but tentatively confident we won't see a Trump Presidency.
His path right now looks about as likely as Bernie Sanders chance of winning the democratic nomination. Unfortunatly he's only an october surprise away from the presidency.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
There's no risk of indictment
I asked about the investigation yesterday and I got sarcastic responses. Any current information?
The only source I could find was a Fox News Pundit that made a leap of logic to say a criminal ruling will be coming down rather than a security investigation.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Not to give a snark response, but because it's an active investigation the answer is no
So there is a risk of indictment, however small.
QuiteWhittle
Member
Not really...? If she gets indicted then the DNC could rally behind Sanders or Biden or whoever. No one needs to be actively campaigning for that.
The biggest blow an indictment could give is during the GE proper.
Christie.
No, in the event of an indictment, they will nominate Biden. This is the conventional wisdom of most analysts, including Charlie cook.
Bernie is eliminated using pledged delegates, so if the super delegates vote for someone else, you actually would have a contested convention.
FloydtheFathead
Member
Gingrich?
Ironic that we are the party trying to kill voter ID laws and partisan gerrymandering.
plagiarize
Banned
Honest question, but if things were looking bad, do you think the FBI would fail to communicate that to the campaign and the DNC? It would be a very bad look for them to nuke a nomination for either party.
I honestly don't know if something like that is advised or legal, or what have you. So it's an honest question.
But I also feel that Clinton and the DNC would not be all in on her as they are, if indeed there was a real risk of indictment.
Not really. Under the GOP rules Clinton would have romped to official victory already.
TheChocoboCadet
Banned
How in the world is Trump winning the general election at 40c on the betting markets? Should I really start to worry that this may become reality, or are people just really that statistically stupid?
Hillary could get revenge for the shit he pulled in the 90's.
Not making a comment on whether it makes sense or not. However has anyone else notice just how much of an attack dog Warren has been?
I'm not sure Warren would balance the ticket in the way that might be needed, however I do think she is a good attack dog who has proven to be quick as a whip and knows where the jugular is.
I think there is too much emphasis places on Clinton needing to put an Hispanic on the ticket. Why? She's going to get those voters anyway.
I think reaching out to the populist left might be a better move.
I'm not sure Warren would balance the ticket in the way that might be needed, however I do think she is a good attack dog who has proven to be quick as a whip and knows where the jugular is.
I think there is too much emphasis places on Clinton needing to put an Hispanic on the ticket. Why? She's going to get those voters anyway.
I think reaching out to the populist left might be a better move.
40c is a huge landslide!
Roland_Gunner
Member
Rather than coming out and saying that 'Bernie voters, go support Clinton,' Warren is using these attacks to rally the base. Given how emotionally invested the Sanders supporters are its a good strategy, and I think re-enforces how valuable she is in the Senate and not part of the ticket.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Here is my assumption
Someone would leak if Clinton was about to be indicted before that bomb dropped, and I would assume it would have happened earlier in the investigation.
I've been following PredictIt pretty heavily since last fall, and it seems whoever just scored a touchdown gets overfavored momentarily. For example after Cruz won Wisconsin he briefly overtook Trump that night even though everyone knew Trump was about to win big in New York in one week. Then over the next week Trump slowly gained 30 points on Cruz even though no new information was revealed in between the Wisconsin win and the New York primary.
So from what I've seen people are momentarily overestimating Trump's chances on PredictIt because he just had a really good play, even though nothing much has changed in regards to whether he can still win the game. He'll likely be back to 32c within a week. Shorting momentary irrational exuberance like this has been good to scalp some nice profits on PredictIt.
FloydtheFathead
Member
That would be very entertaining.
benjipwns
Banned
What are the Democratic Party's rules on nominations at the convention?
Assume for arguments sake that Hillary was indicted and released all her delegates. Or died. Or just gave up knowing she couldn't beat the Trump/Sanders ticket.
Now, in the RNC we know that under current rules only candidates who won at least eight states can be placed in nomination. Which means Trump and Cruz. So if one of those were to back down, only the other can be placed in nomination.
Does anyone know if the DNC has a similar set of rules? Or can literally anyone have their name placed in nomination at the convention by the delegates?
A basic Google search got me nothing of value regarding non-primary candidates.
A viable third party in the US system.
She's running up the numbers because of Trump, but Latinos otherwise would split more.
Plus, I think it makes more sense to pick someone young to groom for 2024 (When the demos will be even more lopsided). That's not Warren.
shinra-bansho
Member
House of Cards tells me that anything goes.
Lord Fagan
Junior Member
Gonna be a lot of fun when the former federal prosecutor from New Jersey weighs in on that mob ties oppo. Can't think of a better expert on the topic.
gutter_trash
Banned
see what you did there?
blackaroni
Member
Do you think that there will be a lot of Republicans changing their affiliation to Democrat to get Bernie some extra delegates in the upcoming primaries?
Manmademan
Member
No, because that race is over.
At this point I don't see any way that it could make a tangible difference.
Have there ever been any studies into how much strategic voting of this nature even occurs? It seems like something that gets thrown out a lot, but I've never seen any evidence it makes a tangible impact/enough people do it to move the needle.
FloydtheFathead
Member
It didn't happen in 2008. Despite Limbaugh begging.
The Lamonster
Member
Called it. And some of you guys didn't believe me
Really disappointed that Bernie won last night. Now more than ever, we need this thing to be over.
Orbis Tabula
Member
Man, I am hitting election burnout, I think. Maybe I need a vacation from it. I'm the guy who was going into this saying "I live for election years!" It's the most exciting thing there is. But geez oh man am I getting burned out. Quick. Someone talk policy or something cool. Anything! Hit me up with some of that sweet, sweet political trivia. Anything but more Bernie or Trump hand-wringing.
The Lamonster
Member
Geez oh man! How many states will vote to legalize medical marijuana in November? What about recreational? When does the federal levee break?
HUELEN10
Member
Okay...
Did you know that my man, Dr. Ben Carson, has a shrine dedicated to just him, and a painting of him chilling with Jesus. Also instead of Proverbs, he has Poverbs.
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...en-carson-house-homage-to-himself-in-pictures
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