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PoliGAF 2016 |OT6| Delete your accounts

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Crocodile

Member
No, I very much understand that, my point is not that there is no racism in the Democratic Party, which is very obviously untrue, more that I don't see how someone who was racist would be influenced either way in this election: both candidates are pretty actively in favour minority rights, have a number of minority surrogates, and have campaigned on minority issues. It's not like you have a simple black person/white person coding like in '08, so I'm just puzzled as to how racism is supposedly one of the primary reasons behind Sanders support in West Virginia, I don't think it adds up.

Honestly, I think Clinton has mentioned intersectionality like twice in this campaign and Sanders once. I don't think it has ever been a prominent issue except amongst relatively engaged people like ourselves. Certainly, I'd be willing to bet the majority of voters in West Virginia had never even heard of the term. Given that Sanders supporters also overwhelmingly like Obama, and a lot of Sanders' tactics have been around trying to disassociate Clinton from Obama, I don't think that people are somehow voting Sanders to get back at Obama, I don't think that makes much sense. I think the more likely reason for Sanders voters in WV wanting to vote Trump in the general is because they don't actually intend to vote Trump but want to scare the bejeesus out of the Clinton campaign - i.e., same reason that national polling right now is so close between Clinton and Trump right now. It'd be interesting to see some data on this, but my guess is that if you go back and poll WV primary voters after the convention has finished, you'll see that Trump figure has subsided hugely, down to the same approximately 10% level of Clinton supporters who said they'd vote Trump if Sanders won.

A) Simply put, Clinton has represented herself as "Obama Term 3". If you don't like Obama, for whatever reason, you probably aren't voting for her. There are an non-insignificant number of Democrats, especially in certain states, who aren't super keen on Obama. It's as simple as that.

B) Regarding the bolded, I honestly don't think you can apply Occam's Razor and come to that conclusion at the same time. We know how states like West Virginia and Kentucky and etc. vote in the general and in past primaries. People aren't playing game theory here - they are voting Democrat because they have to (closed primary) or because there are local Democratic elections they care about. That doesn't mean they are Obama (and all he represents) fans.

I think she's probably right re: Sanders being the future of the party. Well, not Sanders himself, he'll be done by July, but outsider candidates are only going to become more popular - particularly because I think the US' economic fundamentals don't look good, and my best guess would be Clinton losing in 2020 following an economic downturn and a lot of "I told you so"-ism for what we'll call the "Sanderite" wing.

I'm not super convinced. At least not yet - especially given a lot of the data we have out there (that for example Black Mamba touched upon). The ideology between Clinton and Sanders isn't that large. It's more about the methodology, the degree and the depth of policy. I feel confident that the vast majority of Democrats want higher wages, more and better healthcare, better and more affordable education, stronger protection for all racial/gender/sexual classes, etc. However there is more than one way to achieve those goals and some ways are easier/better given the make up of the country. I also don't think the left-most version or interpretation of a policy is always the best or most practical. We'll see how the next years play out. I just pray it remains civil and don't get a "Green Tea" movement started. I think what has happened on the Right has me shook.

This reminds me. People keep saying all those Sanders voters who preferred Trump to Clinton are lazy lapsed Democrats who never changed their affiliation, but then they're still motivated enough to go out and vote in a primary? That rationale hasn't really made sense to me.

I've never bought the "too lazy to change" rationale. The "there are other things on a primary ballot aside from presidential candidates" rationale makes complete sense to me though.
 
This reminds me. People keep saying all those Sanders voters who preferred Trump to Clinton are lazy lapsed Democrats who never changed their affiliation, but then they're still motivated enough to go out and vote in a primary? That rationale hasn't really made sense to me.

Sometimes changing voter reg can be a lot harder than voting if you live in a small town. One might require you to travel far to go to the DMV or something. Your voting booth is within walking distance.

Also, the local politics are very different. You can still vote for Dem in local politics but trust me, they look nothing like a national Democrat.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Exactly. My point about moderates was about how there's no discernible difference among ideology within the party. Which is surprising because Bernie is supposed to be a socialist or extremely liberal and Hillary is supposed to be Republican light! you'd think the differences would be larger!

The differences relate mostly to age, sex, and race!

Uhhh.....if I'm reading that right (and as pigeon said, I want to murder that chart for the terrible way it is set up), I don't think that's actually true?

Bernie's not in the question at all. The assumption you're making is that negative favorability against Clinton implies positive favorability towards Sanders. You could have a much higher percentage of Sanders' favorables come from the more liberal end of the spectrum, versus Clinton having a higher percentage of her favorables coming from the more moderate / conservative end of Democrat - but to do it right you'd want to have polled those same people on their feelings towards Sanders.

As an ex-academic, I'm quite aware, and probably often make the same mistake!

Hopefully nowhere near Abramson's article, though.

Noooooooooooooooooot even close, lol.
 
I don't think the future of the Democratic party looks all that much like Sanders, tbh. From a policy perspective, perhaps, but the outsider appeal isn't really all that strong compared to the Republicans, as evidenced by how he's getting his ass kicked.

Someone with similar policy positions to Sanders but with more establishment support and technocratic leanings? That I could see.

That was Obama, without having to moderate his positions as much. A slightly further left Obama is what future wildly successful Democrats will look like. Sanders doesn't even come into it. I have no idea why I bothered to type up the unspoilered part of this post.
 

hawk2025

Member
The "right" Sanders for the future:


1) I'm really mad at all these issues: Income Inequality, Wall Street, Higher Education, Health Care

2) I'm a politician with clout and am considering running for president. Let's do this!

3) Since these issues are important, I'm gonna talk to a few researchers at the forefront of them. How do they feel about Health Care policy and tackling Income Inequality? Who researched the 2008 crisis, and what should we do about Wall Street? How? What are the different opinions on education debt? What can we do about it, and how?

4) Those are my main points. What else do I need to actually win an election? Time to hire someone that understands the demographics of the country and can build a comprehensive strategy!

5) "Here's my platform. Let's do this!"



Bernie utterly failed in doing (3) and (4), jumped right into (5), and decided that he would latch to anyone that agreed with his preconceived notions.

His lack of intellectual curiosity is his doom IMO. As a candidate (4) and as a potential president (3).
 
I don't think the future of the Democratic party looks all that much like Sanders, tbh. From a policy perspective, perhaps, but the outsider appeal isn't really all that strong compared to the Republicans, as evidenced by how he's getting his ass kicked.

Someone with similar policy positions to Sanders but with more establishment support and technocratic leanings? That I could see.

That was Obama, without having to moderate his positions as much. A slightly further left Obama is what future wildly successful Democrats will look like. Sanders doesn't even come into it. I have no idea why I bothered to type up the unspoilered part of this post.

Yeah, I agree. Obama is going down like left-wing Reagan, because to ever succeed as a Dem (or period, honestly), you're going to have to run into the question, "What are your views on the Obama presidency? Yay or nay?" Answering that you didn't care for it in any way is going to go over terribly.

Obama is the future of the Democratic Party.

Sometimes changing voter reg can be a lot harder than voting if you live in a small town. One might require you to travel far to go to the DMV or something. Your voting booth is within walking distance.

Also, the local politics are very different. You can still vote for Dem in local politics but trust me, they look nothing like a national Democrat.

To add to this, look at Mississippi's state legislature. The MS state legislature in 2011 flipped from D to R for the first time since Reconstruction. There's no way you can say that MS was a pro-Clinton state though. It's just a lot of local traditions that facilitated the stay for conservative Dems. They aren't ever going to vote for a Democrat nationally; they just do locally, where there are Democrats they like (who look more like Republicans than Baker or Hogan do, tbh).
 
I'm not actually at all clear what her foreign policy views are at the moment after she 180'd on Syria. That was a pretty egregious flip-flop; although I'll give her the credence of the doubt if she sticks to such a stance in the long run. The trouble is right now it's hard to tell if this is part of her gradual political conversion or a piece of opportunism.

It opportunism

And sanders isn't the future of the party. If anything he's a harbringer of changes 20-30 years down the road.

Clinton's supporters aren't going anywhere. If anything he's a mcgovern who was 30 years too early
 
Uhhh.....if I'm reading that right (and as pigeon said, I want to murder that chart for the terrible way it is set up), I don't think that's actually true?

Bernie's not in the question at all. The assumption you're making is that negative favorability against Clinton implies positive favorability towards Sanders. You could have a much higher percentage of Sanders' favorables come from the more liberal end of the spectrum, versus Clinton having a higher percentage of her favorables coming from the more moderate / conservative end of Democrat - but to do it right you'd want to have polled those same people on their feelings towards Sanders.

uh, yes, negative towards clinton means positive towards Bernie. I mean, sure, there are some people who view both negatively within the party/leaners but it's insignificant, I'd imagine.

But I'm looking at Hillary's unfavorables and assuming those people are voting mostly for Bernie. Yes, that was not polled, but common sense can take over.

There are a bunch of people who view Hillary favorable and also Bernie and support Bernie. But I'm fairly confident to say if they find Hillary unfavorable, they support Bernie 9 out of 10 times. I don't need a separate poll for that information.

Having said that, they did poll those same people about Bernie's favorables an they are basically identical among Demo/leaners as Hillary's. Also, same breakdown among liberal and moderate/cons dems/leaners. The only reason Bernie's favorables are overall higher is Republicans. 3% like Hillary versus 17% Bernie.

So ideology within the Dem/leaners is irrelevant. Hillary and Bernie are the same in terms of support. It comes down to age, race, and sex.

edit: interestinly, Bernie's favorables in urban cities is identical to Hillary. It's the suburban and rural areas that change things. Rural in particular.

Now, we all know urban Dems are more liberal...

I'm sorry, but Bernie's policies are not what are resonating with his supporters that much.
 

ampere

Member
Heh

kLtDIE5.png

/bow

She is a total waifu material. Goddam I hate Weiner so much.

He's literally the worst.

He was the chosen one, could have maybe been pres, the whole shebang.

Dick picks? Dick picks bro?! That's how you end it?!
 
bkvWF20.png


Come on guys, think of the children!

Anyone who favors Jill Stein over Clinton is a maniac. And anyone who thinks Clinton being a women can't be a reason to vote for her can kiss my ass.

Sorry, stuck at work for three hours longer than I should be. I'm not feeling too charitable.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
uh, yes, negative towards clinton means positive towards Bernie. I mean, sure, there are some people who view both negatively within the party/leaners but it's insignificant, I'd imagine.

But I'm looking at Hillary's unfavorables and assuming those people are voting mostly for Bernie. Yes, that was not polled, but common sense can take over.

There are a bunch of people who view Hillary favorable and also Bernie and support Bernie. But I'm fairly confident to say if they find Hillary unfavorable, they support Bernie 9 out of 10 times. I don't need a separate poll for that information.

Having said that, they did poll those same people about Bernie's favorables an they are basically identical among Demo/leaners as Hillary's. Also, same breakdown among liberal and moderate/cons dems/leaners. The only reason Bernie's favorables are overall higher is Republicans. 3% like Hillary versus 17% Bernie.

So ideology within the Dem/leaners is irrelevant. Hillary and Bernie are the same in terms of support. It comes down to age, race, and sex.

I don't think those are accurate assumptions to make, and I think because Sanders and Clinton are not being directly compared to each other, any assumptions and analysis based on those assumptions are confirmation of pre-existing beliefs rather than actual facts.

That said - if you have direct links to both of the polls I'd be interested in digging deeper.
 
Hillary is thick yo.

Also, can a political cartoonist not label every damn thing in sight for once? Aside from Bernie looking way thinner and fit than he does in real life (and standing up straighter than real life), there are no labels on him. We know who he is. Everything else is written on. To be honest, if you just had Wall Street, and no caption or labels, the point would have made.

Also also: the cartoonist is a horrible person.
 
Cybit, I don't understand why you're arguing here.

Democrat/leaners who view Clinton unfavorably are going to vote for Bernie in the primary.

We don't need to poll bears if they shit in the woods, yo. We know.
 
I love that these people are super up-in-arms about never changing your stances and purity, and I bet none of them know that Liz Warren was a damn Republican until the mid 90s.

Don't worry about that. I'm sure they'll bring it up at every turn to prove how much of a unprincipled $hill she is once she throws her full support behind Clinton.
 

ampere

Member
Hillary is thick yo.

Also, can a political cartoonist not label every damn thing in sight for once? Aside from Bernie looking way thinner and fit than he does in real life (and standing up straighter than real life), there are no labels on him. We know who he is. Everything else is written on. To be honest, if you just had Wall Street, and no caption or labels, the point would have made.

Also also: the cartoonist is a horrible person.

Did they really not realize how horribly sexist that was as they were drawing it? I guess not
 

Hazmat

Member
Hillary is thick yo.

Also, can a political cartoonist not label every damn thing in sight for once? Aside from Bernie looking way thinner and fit than he does in real life (and standing up straighter than real life), there are no labels on him. We know who he is. Everything else is written on. To be honest, if you just had Wall Street, and no caption or labels, the point would have made.

Also also: the cartoonist is a horrible person.

That's such a flattering drawing of Sanders he should use it as his official senate portrait. It's just missing a ray of light shining down on him and that goddamn bird.
 
This doesn't follow. Sanders' policies are strongly more redistributive.

I think you missed the point. Many of Sanders' policies would indeed redistribute wealth to a broad base racially but the perception of democrat wealth redistribution is that the money goes to minorities, and hard working whites (whether they're lower or high class) foot the bill.
 

johnsmith

remember me
So apparently Ben Garrison is either a white supremacist, or the victim of a 4chan led smear campaign. My gut tells me it's the former.
 

Crayons

Banned
So apparently Ben Garrison is either a white supremacist, or the victim of a 4chan led smear campaign. My gut tells me it's the former.

Actually it's the latter. 4chan would edit his cartoons and the edits of the cartoons became way more popular than his actual cartoons

But my gut tells me he's a sexist and racist on the downlow anyway so
He's still a shitty person
 
How can you tell how concerned Hillary supporters (currently, 99% of PoliGAF posters) are about Bernie's infectious popularity, as the Golden State's primary surfs into view?

Cenk introducing Bernie at a CA rally, plus, crowd gathers outside restaurant to #FeelTheBern:



Easy! It's in inverse proportion to the volume and weight of anti-Bernie posts on PoliGAF ;).

Well, I feel us few true-Bernie supporters (no, not the ones who claim they once supported Bernie, but then say he's run a terrible campaign, despite the yuge obstacles he's overcome and only being behind ~8% in pledged delegates, and then reel off Hillary's policy positions), need an antidote for all this negativity:

How about Dick Van Dyke introducing Bernie in Santa Monica, CA :):

 
Daniel B·;204570490 said:
Cenk introducing Bernie at a CA rally, plus, crowd gathers outside restaurant to #FeelTheBern:

I hope it was everything he wanted it to be.

I wonder if HA Goodman is there thinking about how he will break into Bernie's hotel room with a box of wine.
 

Crayons

Banned
Daniel B·;204570490 said:
How can you tell how concerned Hillary supporters (currently, 99% of PoliGAF posters) are about Bernie's infectious popularity, as the Golden State's primary surfs into view?

Cenk introducing Bernie at a CA rally, plus, crowd gathers outside restaurant to #FeelTheBern:



Easy! It's in inverse proportion to the volume and weight of anti-Bernie posts on PoliGAF ;).

Well, I feel us few true-Bernie supporters (no, not the ones who claim they once supported Bernie, but then say he's run a terrible campaign, despite the yuge obstacles he's overcome and only being behind 4% in pledged delegates, and then reel off Hillary's policy positions), need an antidote for all this negatively:

How about Dick Van Dyke introducing Bernie in Santa Monica, CA :):


Daniel, right?

Can I call you Dan?

Listen, Dan. It's over. Unless Hillary gets on TV right now and takes a shit live on TV, she is going to clench the nomination. Fact. It won't even matter if Bernie had a huge upset and won California (which he won't). He may have won many smaller states but he lost big in bigger states. He gave it a good fighting shot, but hell, even when I met his wife, after he lost New York, I'm pretty sure she knew that all the math was against her.

It's all ogre now.
 
a
Don't worry - it's a post-modern comment! (I'm not saying that you are ignorant, if that's an actual question). It's more of a snarky comment towards academia (the missus is one and is ready to strangle all of them due to the condescension / pretension involved) and how sometimes they are just very good at sounding intellectual and yet being completely stupid.
hey this statement perfectly encapsulates what Notre Dame stands for.
 
Daniel B·;204570490 said:
How can you tell how concerned Hillary supporters (currently, 99% of PoliGAF posters) are about Bernie's infectious popularity, as the Golden State's primary surfs into view?

Cenk introducing Bernie at a CA rally, plus, crowd gathers outside restaurant to #FeelTheBern:



Easy! It's in inverse proportion to the volume and weight of anti-Bernie posts on PoliGAF ;).

Well, I feel us few true-Bernie supporters (no, not the ones who claim they once supported Bernie, but then say he's run a terrible campaign, despite the yuge obstacles he's overcome and only being behind 4% in pledged delegates, and then reel off Hillary's policy positions), need an antidote for all this negativity:

How about Dick Van Dyke introducing Bernie in Santa Monica, CA :):


Uh, he's behind by a lot more than 4% of the delegates. I believe it's like 9-10% which is insurmountable.

Bernie math is like seth abramson writing.
 
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