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PoliGAF 2016 |OT6| Delete your accounts

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T

teiresias

Member
Certainly this is just because Sanders supporters didn't know about or care about the primary . . . yeah, that's the ticket.

Officerrob said:
Gotta love how they bother to hold two actual events, and the one with more votes (by far) is ignored
Click to expand...

I'm not really sure why a state would hold both at all, but I think it's up to the parties themselves how they use the two. Republicans decided to use the primary results and the democrats decided to use the caucus results (the SoS site says the parties could also devise some way to use the results of both to assign delegates). So, the Dem side ignoring the primary is completely on DWS.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
A blog post from Garth Turner, for the Canadians. Always love this guy's writing even if I don't agree with all of what he says. lol at the bolded

http://www.greaterfool.ca/

So, the TV reporter with the nice hair asked the guy-in-the-street, why ya voting for Arnold Schwarzenegger?

The guy looked at him like that was the lamest question ever. “To see what’ll happen,” he said.

It was 2003 and the Hollywood actor with no political experience and ubiquitous name recognition went on to become the governor of California. Seven years later the state was spending $20 billion more than it took in, and technically bankrupt. Ultimately the Terminator was found to be a political failure who spent copious time with a second family, and paid his mistress ten grand a month.

So now the entire country looks like it might just trundle down the same path, to see what happens if Donald Trump becomes president. Against the odds and predictions (including mine) he’ll win the Republican nomination and currently is running neck-&-neck with a damaged Hilary Clinton in the polls. Her inability to bury that leftie nutbar Bernie Sanders has seriously assailed her image as unbeatable. She’s not. Now the woman looks like an Establishment shill, with the coming Trump-Clinton slugfest promising to be one of the ugliest in memory.

So what’s it mean?

First, yes, he could win. There may be an army of mouth-breathing rednecks behind him, but you don’t get to 40% in nationals just appealing to people who think their cousin’s hot. Politics is about communications, and he’s winning. Lots of Americans believe Clinton’s best-before date was sometime last Century, that her husband’s a dufus, and she’ll be a spend-and-tax, hopey-changey liberal at a time when the economy needs just the opposite.

Okay, so what does this bode for us?

President Trump could be tough on the Canadian economy if he makes good on his promise to rip up the North American Free Trade Agreement. He’s a wall-building and tariff-imposing America-firster who wants the US to be energy independent, somewhat immigrant-free, cut taxes, and spend a trillion more a year on defence and other hard stuff. It’ll be war in terms of trade with China, Japan, Mexico and Korea. Tariffs as high as 45%. Trump says he thinks the American economy’s in a bubble that he expects to pop, leading to a recession, likely in 2017.

Sigh. Just when maple was looking more tasty again. This is a growing reason to be cautious, which means you should probably keep your Canadian content where it is (hopefully) – less than one-third of your growth assets.

Second, cutting US tax brackets and lowering the business rate (as Trump vows to do) would likely goose consumer spending, be bullish for car manufacturers, retailers and the real estate industry. This accounts for 70% of the American economy, so that recession he’s expecting might be a big non-starter. Stock markets will like that after, of course, they react with alarm and volatility to the events of Tuesday night, November 8th.

Third – but if history’s any guide, Clinton would be way better for investors than Trump. During the most recent 15 years when Republicans have been in office, the Dow went up 42%. But with Dems in office, markets soared 609% – more than fourteen times the advance. Over the last three decades, same pattern – Republicans 166% vs the Democrats’ 1,900%.

f8bp0Bh.png


Fourth, markets hate surprises. Right now nobody seems to be seriously factoring in a Trump presidency because it’s too wingy and out there. That will change in two months after the nominating conventions, and when there’s just five months left until the general election. Combined with two Fed rate increases now expected during 2016 – one in June or July and the other in the autumn – that could make for a wild few months in the bond market. Ditto for commodities, since the US dollar will rally and the price of stuff like oil likely drop as a result.

So the only thing you really need to know about is uncertainty. It’s out there now and every week it stands a good chance of increasing.
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H

Holmes

Member
teiresias said:
Certainly this is just because Sanders supporters didn't know about or care about the primary . . . yeah, that's the ticket.
Click to expand...
This is a really weak argument. Ballots are mailed to every registered voter, and Washington always has a higher than the national average voter turnout (as do the other states with mail voting).
 
T

tenchir

Member
Will Nebraska and Washington voters number be counted in popular votes? Or do they only count for binding caucuses/primaries?
 
C

Crocodile

Member
It funny how much Trump and Sanders complained that the system was rigged when it was rigged in their favor (Winner take all/most States & Caucuses). Not that there aren't legit criticisms or ways the nominating process could have been made better or that some states did some weird things (and the GOP elite were kind of openly conspiring against Trump) but it shows you how little teeth those arguments had. At the very least I feel the Democratic process with its proportional system is better than the GOP's weird melange of rules.
I better not hear anymore "the system is rigged" shit from Sanders. The "system could be improved" would be a fair rally cry though.

teiresias said:
Certainly this is just because Sanders supporters didn't know about or care about the primary . . . yeah, that's the ticket.
Click to expand...

Isn't Washington a mail-in-state? Like they straight up mail you a ballot? You have to REALLY not give a shit to not vote I'd feel.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
tenchir said:
Will Nebraska and Washington voters number be counted in popular votes? Or do they only count for binding caucuses/primaries?
Click to expand...
The Wiki count doesn't include vote totals from the primaries.

I mean someone could vote in both so it seems silly to count both.

I'd count the primaries just because more people participated in both cases, but whatever, it's not a big deal.

Will be funny to see people like Shaun King keep pushing the "But Washington has like 7 million people and they all supported Bernie!" argument in light of this.
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
Suikoguy said:
Yeah, but the cost is the primary reason why states won't do one. If they are already doing one...
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Because fuck logic. The whole Primary\Caucus system really needs to be streamlined and the parties just need to impose a blanket solution for every state. I propose semi-closed primaries (I get them mixed up some times, is that the one where you can register day of but only vote in 1 parties?) for everyone and let the states decide which day they want it on. Caucuses are shit, closed primaries with registration dates 6 months before the primary are shit, and I'm tired of hearing about people complaining about voter suppression during a caucus--which were basically designed to suppress votes.
 
A

ampere

Member
Suikoguy said:
I don't get it, have there been any justifications for it?
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B-Dubs said:
They probably do all the down ballot stuff today.
Click to expand...

Yup, down ballot stuff

Basically the state wants to be earlier for the presidential stuff, so they hold a caucus, but the downticket races don't want to be that early and the state doesn't want to hold two primaries

Georgia actually has two separate primaries. Presidential one with no downticket in March, and today was the primary for downticket Georgia stuff. Probably costs more to do it that way
 
E

excelsiorlef

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
Googling my user name and apparently I'm on a list of "confirmed Correct the Record Accounts"

neat

I also found a hilarious archive of some dumb site I made when I was 15 that I forgot existed and still don't remember it, but it's my user name and about something I was into when I was 15.
Click to expand...

Awwww I'm not on the list. :(

Did find that that anti NeoGAF subreddit that got axed has moved to Voat and they've posted about me! Telling me to get a life and called me a faggot. Fun times lol.

To think people took the time more than once to bitch about me in some Voat site lol. Charming
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Ah thanks, that makes sense, but it's still really stupid. The format of letting the states choose the order lends itself to one upping each other's date.
 
I

itschris

Member
The Hill: Dems discuss dropping Wasserman Schultz

Democrats on Capitol Hill are discussing whether Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz should step down as Democratic National Committee (DNC) chairwoman before the party’s national convention in July.

Democrats backing likely presidential nominee Hillary Clinton worry Wasserman Schultz has become too divisive a figure to unify the party in 2016, which they say is crucial to defeating presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump in November.

Wasserman Schultz has had an increasingly acrimonious relationship with the party’s other presidential candidate, Bernie Sanders, and his supporters, who argue she has tilted the scales in Clinton’s favor.

“There have been a lot of meetings over the past 48 hours about what color plate do we deliver Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s head on,” said one pro-Clinton Democratic senator.

The lawmaker said senators huddled on the chamber floor last week to talk about Wasserman Schultz’s future and estimated that about a dozen have weighed in during private conversations.

“I don’t see how she can continue to the election. How can she open the convention? Sanders supporters would go nuts,” said the lawmaker, who requested anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the discussions.

There is no indication Wasserman Schultz, who is also a Florida congresswoman, has any plans to leave her post. And Senate sources stress that a final decision won’t be made until Clinton and Sanders negotiate some type of deal aimed at healing the party. President Obama, who selected Wasserman ­Schultz as chairwoman in 2011, is expected to play a major role in any such talks.
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U

User 463088

Banned
Can you imagine if the Washington results were reversed? Also I ate an entire pie? Mainly because my boss said I was aggressively gay..... And idk what to do with that information.
 
F

FloydtheFathead

Member
eBay Huckster said:
speaking of the bay, i'm really digging this basketball game happening right now
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I can't believe the Warriors are going to piss it away.

And I can't believe that the fucking Cavs are going to piss it away if they don't get their shit together because they actually could beat fucking OKC.

Cleveland: A Story of Almosts :(

adam387 said:
Can you imagine if the Washington results were reversed? Also I ate an entire pie? Mainly because my boss said I was aggressively gay..... And idk what to do with that information.
Click to expand...
Yusef Islam has the answer Adam
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Yeah, like I anticipated, the price of Sanders is to name Tulsi the new DNC head.

If he can also get some distancing from Israel into the party platform I'll consider the whole thing a net victory.
 
R

royalan

Member
I am actually really surprised Hillary won this primary. Even erasing Bernie's caucus advantage, the demographics of Washington heavily favor him, right.

Goes to show that if it weren't for caucuses, Bernie wouldn't have even been worth taking seriously.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
No way in hell the Hillary people would allow it to be Tulsi. Switching this close to the election is pointless and symbolic. But they will not let a hand-picked Bernie partisan lead the convention.
 
R

royalan

Member
On one hand, DWS sucks at this, and she likely wants to step down anyway...

On the other, what's the risk that caving in to demands for DWS to step down only legitimizes the conspiracy theories to this primary has been rigged, and makes the Bernie crowd even louder?
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
Remember when Sanders won the caucus in Washington, and there was a massive campaign to get super delegates in the state to support him, specifically targeting them and trying to shame them etc?

Well looks like they just lost that line of attack eh?
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
plagiarize said:
Remember when Sanders won the caucus in Washington, and there was a massive campaign to get super delegates in the state to support him, specifically targeting them and trying to shame them etc?

Well looks like they just lost that line of attack eh?
Click to expand...

Maybe it's just me, but it seems like the "superdelegates should vote with their state" talk has almost completely died down, both from the campaign itself and from supporters. Now it's 100% "superdelegates should vote for whoever has the best GE polls."

I can't imagine why they aren't using that talking point anymore.
 
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