Orbis Tabula
Member
You're probably right. My point is that people aren't going to check. Or at least, they're less likely to. If Rasmussen polls that show Trump up are worth disecting, so should be Rasmussen polls showing Trump down.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT6| Delete your accounts
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You're probably right. My point is that people aren't going to check. Or at least, they're less likely to. If Rasmussen polls that show Trump up are worth disecting, so should be Rasmussen polls showing Trump down.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
What reality are you living in?
12 days and they will become endangered, pissed off, species.
It will probably be weeks before most of them either see the reality of the situation, or give up posting.
There will still be that very few who just don't give it up.
That being said, I won't gloat to most of his supporters. But there are a few here that it will be tempting, lol.
Sanders himself, i'll throw a party for him going back to Vermont. He was always the best candidate for president of Vermont.
Every cycle there's bumps and every cycle people lose their shit over them. Is there a PredictIt market for if this thread and the OT lose their shit when Trump gets a bump out of the convention?
Sirpopopop
Member
I'm going to save my gloating for election night.
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Yeah, I don't quite understand why some of those events have such an influence in polls.
But it's a pretty well established phenomenon.
Oh, I finally watched the first Hunger Games and now get all the references in the Colbert skit.
For me, I'm going to gloat against Trump's chances knowing Hillary has nomination. No way do I want to be rude to Bernie supporters. A great majority of them are sensible people.
Makes sense, we're clearly on the darkest timeline.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
My God this CNN interview view with the Trump press rep.
MESS
MESS
MESS
MESS
MESS
MESS
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Trump will have to self destruct for the Dems to take back the house. Although, amusingly, that is a feasible scenario.
I think the Senate is inevitable at this point.
theprodigy
Member
Orbis Tabula
Member
BAH GOD WHAT HAVE I DONE
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
So Hillary by 10 points, then.
You also have finals tomorrow and forgot to study.
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
Link / Description?
its going to be hard to not gloat to a certain few supporters.
That's not worth your time.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/utah-man-alleges-assault-daughter-walmart-bathroom
What a year we're having.
blah blah blah
Orbis Tabula
Member
"Forgot". Like I as gonna study anyways.
Brah, try the interview with the RNC comm director Sean Spicer. Dude was LIT THE FUCK UP by my team Berman and Bolduan. To quote Trump, Spicer was acting like a soft little baby.
I had a final today and I didn't sleep but I wasn't studying I was writing a paper that I've known about for months .I studied for the final for a whopping one hour, mostly on the bus.
Oh, Crayons. Why do you do this to yourself? And I have another big paper due tomorrow too and I still haven't slept
Oh, Crayons. Why do you do this to yourself? And I have another big paper due tomorrow too and I still haven't slept
Ok, I understand that. I agree with a lot of what you said, just not sure I'm ready to go full decriminalization for everything. But thanks for responding that's definitely a different perspective that I'll have to look into
Box of Kittens
Banned
Agreed. I mean, it's Rasmussen and we know it sucks, but I don't like watching people see a poll that gives an unfavorable result and respond by looking for ways to discredit it. That's how you end up with Unskewed Polls. The aggregates are what matters.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Niiiice. So much for that meme (for now)
Guess who's viewed more favorably than unfavorably among this group? Obama, Bill Clinton, Sanders. Two of those will come out swinging for Hillary. Possibly three. Even if Hillary herself isn't a great candidate, she'll have amazing surrogates.
E: Bernie fundraisers for Feingold
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...rs-fundraises-for-feingold-in-wis-senate-race
Could be a snarky asshole and throw $1 bills at him, but whatever, I appreciate it.
Box of Kittens
Banned
I'm sure glad I went to bed early and missed all the diablosing over a stupid tweet in response to something said on Jimmy Kimmel.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
And this is an insane powder keg that's a bit dangerous. Remember, that wacko that attacked this dad and his kids is also likely a huge 2nd Amendment nut, and if he'd had a gun, who knows what happens. This shit is abhorrent.
Again, though, while I prefer aggregates, it's perfectly fair to think about outliers. I get it, the numbers from Ras aren't as extreme sounding as 90-10 Trump, but that's what stats are for! It's possible (and after 2012, probable) that Ras is just a plain old shitty pollster. I haven't looked to see if that's true, but there's nothing wrong with looking.
I can throw off an aggregate pretty easily. But unskewing can be bad. The better words of wisdom is to check both since it's not that hard
You fucked up.
Third Strike
Member
The best case scenario is about ten seats, if Trump is completely blown out by Hillary. Realistically, probably six or so.
For the House? Still gerrymandered to hell and back, but a couple of states have changed their maps because of litigation, not to mention demographics have changed in the past six years, so some Republican strongholds might be more competitive this year. In 2012, after redistricting and a presidential election, Democrats had 201 seats. Optimistically, I hope we're able to match that number, or at least gain a couple more seats.
I really think Bernie deserves credit for helping fundraise for Feingold. It is certainly late in the game, but better late than never. Even if Sanders is a lackluster surrogate for Clinton, he'd do a lot of good using his donor list to fundraise for down ballot races in the general.
BlastProcessing
Member
You look at polling like this and it becomes obvious why Trump would want to pick a fight with Sanders. He needs to constantly be taking swings or he loses all momentum.
Winning early is going to prove to be a big negative for him I think.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
The issue with Ras--and the reason I do discount them in polls and poll aggregates--is not only have they been provably shitty but they were so prolific that they really threw off the aggregate. So until they actually poll an election well I'm taking them out. All the other sucky pollsters (Zogby etc.) work like outliers should--they wash out of the poll average over time.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I think if Clinton did pick Warren that would do great things for getting Sanders totally on board.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Again, though, while I prefer aggregates, it's perfectly fair to think about outliers. I get it, the numbers from Ras aren't as extreme sounding as 90-10 Trump, but that's what stats are for! It's possible (and after 2012, probable) that Ras is just a plain old shitty pollster. I haven't looked to see if that's true, but there's nothing wrong with looking.
I can throw off an aggregate pretty easily. But unskewing can be bad. The better words of wisdom is to check both since it's not that hard
I like the approach of weighting polls based on track record. If you want to exclude some polls from the aggregates I'd just say to make sure you develop objective criteria for doing so in advance.
Retromelon
Member
There were 8 pages from 1 am last night until now. RIP Sea Manky (he claims to read every post)
I get this feeling, but why wouldn't he? Its like free marketing for him, and he can just tee off on hillary.
21% undecided. They aren't pushing very hard lol
It's a moot point whether Trump will actually debate or not, if the Sanders campaign is actively engaging with and planning with the Trump campaign, then the DNC needs to come down hard as hell on this BS. Lock Sanders out of the convention completely, give nothing on the platform, and strip him of any power when he returns to the Senate.
I mean... I kind of agree but they can't do that. Philly would get berned to the ground.
I'm agreeing with you that I don't think he'll do it. I just don't understand really what he has to lose by getting on stage with Bernie.
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