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PoliGAF 2016 |OT6| Delete your accounts

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H

HylianTom

Banned
Fox318 said:
Is it really that shocking?

Frankly I'm not shocked its higher.
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I've dreamed of that level, but it seems like other polling had the gap around mid/upper teens. Twenties would be amazing. (I think she can do it, especially as the race comes into focus.)
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Jonny Favs supplying us with a nice dose of HOPIUM!
https://theringer.com/barack-obama-...-clinton-donald-trump-7f130c7a08f0#.n7je6g6iz

Either way, Clinton’s primary victory will allow her to assemble a Democratic Dream Team of political talent to rally the party and take on Trump. She’ll have Bill Clinton, a popular ex-president who can testify to her character and defend her record better than anyone (his speech defending President Obama’s at the 2012 convention is the stuff of legend); Elizabeth Warren, a liberal icon in the Senate who has already begun to prosecute the party’s sharpest case against Trump; Joe Biden, a beloved vice president with a working-class, tell-it-like-it-is, God-knows-what-he’ll-say kind of appeal; and a running mate — whether it’s someone like Warren, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, Labor Secretary Tom Perez, or Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown — who will be well suited for the traditional role of attack dog.

Clinton will also have by her side the best political player in the game: Barack Obama.
In a few months, my old boss will hit the trail for the last time as president. He’ll do so with an approval rating that has been north of 50 percent nearly every week since March, a high he’d previously reached only in the months after his first and second elections. Political scientists point to a strong historical correlation between an outgoing president’s popularity and the final vote share of his party’s candidate. (You can read the full University of Virginia study here, but the upshot is this: If Obama is at 50 percent, Clinton is predicted to win 50.1 percent of the vote; at 45 percent, she gets 49.2 percent.)

Obama’s recent surge in popularity has been driven largely by independents, young people, women, and Latinos — four groups most likely to tip the election toward Clinton. He has an 82 percent approval rating among Sanders supporters, whom he’ll work to persuade as America’s most famous Clinton convert — someone who also waged a brutal primary against her, but eventually became a friend, partner, and champion.

I don’t want to overestimate the Obama effect. No one can win this for Clinton but Clinton. Even the UVA study stipulates that election outcomes ultimately depend on the quality of the campaigns and the popularity of the candidates on the ballot.

But I suspect that the president will give this campaign all that he has and more — for Clinton, for his own legacy, and for the vision of America that he’s asked us to believe in since the night he stepped onto the national stage in Boston and delivered his 2004 convention speech, a hopeful, bighearted vision that is the antithesis of everything that Trump represents.

The truth is, Obama has understood better than most the forces that gave rise to a candidacy like Trump’s. Since his earliest days in public life, he’s been focused on the hollowing out of the middle class in a global economy, and America’s ability to embrace its growing diversity. He ran for president as an outsider who grasped people’s frustration with Washington’s broken politics and the politicians who exploit fear and anger to incite suspicion and division. As he said in his announcement speech, “We’ve been told that climate change is a hoax, and that tough talk … can replace diplomacy. … We’ve been told that our crises are somebody else’s fault … and told to blame the other party, or gay people, or immigrants.” That was nearly 10 years ago.

Obama, contrary to what some might think, was never so naive or arrogant as to believe that his election would solve these problems. He knew that it would take time. He knew that he would make mistakes and disappoint some people. He knew that he would face a wall of opposition. He may even have sensed that parts of that opposition would have darker, conspiratorial roots — roots that led to the president’s very legitimacy as an American citizen being seriously questioned, the original lie upon which the entire fraud that is the Trump candidacy was built.

The difference with Trump is that everything is about I. I’m the best. I’m rich. I’m right. I can fix it. I can win. I can handle those other people. I can make those other countries pay. As he said the other day, “I will give you everything. I will give you what you’ve been looking for for 50 years. I’m the only one.”

It’s not just a maddeningly vague and moronic way to run for office, but a recipe for perpetual discontent, since even strong, brilliant leaders cannot bend the world to their will. It’s a fundamental misunderstanding of how our democracy works. Because it’s not democracy. It’s what places ruled by demagogues and tyrants look like.

Democracy is not about I or us vs. them. Democracy, as Obama often says, is about the word we. It is big, messy, and noisy. It is inclusive, welcoming, and tolerant. It’s about a willingness to compromise and assume good faith in others. It’s about a belief that America is not the project of any one person, party, race, or religion — that we all have a responsibility to find a way forward, together, even if we don’t get everything we want, even if we don’t always win the argument, even if sometimes we take two steps back.
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ONE MORE WEEK, THEN BAMS CAN ENDORSE AND THE FUN CAN REALLY BEGIN.
giphy.gif
 
D

Diablos

Member
Plinko said:
Generally with that many undecided I would say Trump still has a shot, but I'm guessing many of those undecideds are Bernie supporters that will eventually come around.
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Well if nothing else it definitely plays into the narrative that Trump has more potential with the blue collar/rust belt/etc. vote than any other Republican has in eons.

Remains to be seen how the Bernie cult deals with his loss.
 
C

catbird

Neo Member
Hi PoliGAF.

How can Bernie not see that his *repeated* answer of "I don't know, I'm too busy running for President" is a terrible look?

I sent the links to a friend of mine who leans Bernie (we're in NJ so we haven't cast our primary votes yet) and I think he might be voting Hillary next week instead.
 
T

thezerofire

Banned
catbird said:
Hi PoliGAF.

How can Bernie not see that his *repeated* answer of "I don't know, I'm too busy running for President" is a terrible look?

I sent the links to a friend of mine who leans Bernie (we're in NJ so we haven't cast our primary votes yet) and I think he might be voting Hillary next week instead.
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I'm not convinced he knows how to self reflect
 
Kite

Kite

Member
backslashbunny said:
I just want to bitch about something here.

Not only did my dad tell me he's voting for Trump, he implored me to not vote for Hillary.
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lol mine is doing the same thing.. is this an Asian dad thing? Mine supports Trump cus he is a hardcore capitalist and businessman, the Democrats = Socialists thing is very effective on him.. especially since he was in the KMT.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Plinko said:
Generally with that many undecided I would say Trump still has a shot, but I'm guessing many of those undecideds are Bernie supporters that will eventually come around.
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Yes, Trump would've to campaign a lot in Michigan to stand a chance. But the good news (hopefully) is Sanders understands the threat and doesn't be a dick.

The most concerning data this week however is Hispanic support is growing for Trump (NBC/SurveyMonkey).
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
If you didnt realize with Bernie switching to a Democrat. Vermont now has two Democratic Senators for the first time in its history.
 
B

benicillin

Banned
studyguy said:
I assume he was swapping back to Independent considering he had filed as an IND for the 2018 senate elections.
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It's strange because I've heard both - that he filed for running as an Independent but also in April he said that he was going to stay a Democrat for the rest of his life.
 
S

studyguy

Member
We'll see I guess. Post primary whatever he does aside from rallying on the campaign trail is pretty irrelevant though. Post general I have a hard time believing anyone will care what he does.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
catbird said:
Hi PoliGAF.

How can Bernie not see that his *repeated* answer of "I don't know, I'm too busy running for President" is a terrible look?

I sent the links to a friend of mine who leans Bernie (we're in NJ so we haven't cast our primary votes yet) and I think he might be voting Hillary next week instead.
Click to expand...

To be honest, he doesn't have that level of awareness. Sanders is nothing if not incredibly idealistic, and that means he doesn't really care about issues that aren't in his wheelhouse.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
AntraxSuicide said:
I said it awhile back, but these memes actively hurt his appeal. That Robert Byrd one was laughably bad, and I personally know a few people who switched candidates after seeing it.
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The problem is it only appeals to the cult members.
 
D

Daniel B·

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Berners care a great deal about climate change so it's going to be reallllly hard for them not to come home.
imrs.php
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WTF, on the "Police treat whites much better" question! Perhaps Bernie's stump speech comment, that police officers are "honest, hard-working people trying to do a difficult job" is really getting through ;).

He of course follows up with "But let us be clear, if a police officer breaks the law, like any public official, that officer must be held accountable", and I seriously doubt that less Bernie supporters believe whites are treated way better, plus, we are gravely concerned with the universe in which Eric Garner can have his life tragically cut short, for the high crime of selling "loosies" (for fuck's sake!), by a police officer openly using an illegal choke hold restraint, without another officer immediately intervening...
 
A

ampere

Member
thezerofire said:
Much easier to read gaf at work
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I totally understand this, but man I am so used to recognizing posters by avatars I just couldn't do it.

Brinbe said:
Jonny Favs supplying us with a nice dose of HOPIUM!
https://theringer.com/barack-obama-...-clinton-donald-trump-7f130c7a08f0#.n7je6g6iz

ONE MORE WEEK, THEN BAMS CAN ENDORSE AND THE FUN CAN REALLY BEGIN.
https://media.giphy.com/media/yoJC2tmhwwe4ZWcg8M/giphy.gif[IMG][/QUOTE]

Good read. I can't believe I didn't know about Favreau until Keepin' in 1600 talk in this thread, the dude is great.

Loved this quote at the end:
[QUOTE]Such is the path of progress in America — slow, difficult, collective, and always unfinished. It doesn’t come from sudden revolutions or charismatic strongmen. It comes from the quiet, persistent effort of citizens and leaders who are flawed and fallible human beings, but nevertheless press on, believing that for all the days filled with setbacks and disappointments, there will be some days when, to paraphrase the president’s favorite King quote, we have bent the long arc of the moral universe ever slightly toward justice.[/QUOTE]
"Yes we can" was how you do a political revolution, but even with overwhelming support from the people you can only get so much done.
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N

NeoXChaos

Member
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 10m10 minutes ago Elgin, IL
I remember on 3/15, for ex, that the big ? was whether Clinton would win the Midwest. The story should have been Clinton winning FL by *30*

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 17m17 minutes ago Elgin, IL
I think toss-up bias has hurt Clinton. She won by huge margins in many big states, but no one cared bc they weren't competitive.
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.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
NeoXChaos said:
.
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The bias towards reporting a close race has definitely helped us down the path we've traveled. That said Bernie still deserves a lot of blame, had he and his team actually controlled for that bias during their strategy sessions we might not be here now.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
B-Dubs said:
The bias towards reporting a close race has definitely helped us down the path we've traveled. That said Bernie still deserves a lot of blame, had he and his team actually controlled for that bias during their strategy sessions we might not be here now.
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It's amusing/sad because people argue that the opposite is true, that the media has argued that Sanders has no chance, in particular because of superdelegates.
 
H

Holmes

Member
NeoXChaos said:
.
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The schedule also hurt her (in terms of narrative) and helped Sanders' "rigged" narrative. She won many more states and contests than him, but most of them were on dates multiple of them were voting. Sanders won many more states that were alone in voting (Wisconsin, Indiana, West Virginia), making it "seem" like he was winning more.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Suikoguy said:
It's amusing/sad because people argue that the opposite is true, that the media has argued that Sanders has no chance, in particular because of superdelegates.
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A lot of it is people having little to no experience following a presidential election in the media. Most political reporters have also done a horrible job explaining how delegates work.

All that said, the rise of echo chamber news sources is really that's to blame for that. The internet is a great tool for spreading information, but it's also a great tool for spreading misinformation. If there was no money in telling people what we want to hear then we'd be better off and sites like usuncut and TYT wouldn't exist. Also places like Huffington Post and Forbes need to take a lot of blame for lending legitimacy, and their name, to random bloggers who just make shit up.
 
D

Daniel B·

Banned
nature boy said:
Poll: Clinton, Sanders lead Trump in Michigan match-ups
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton holds a small lead over businessman Donald Trump in new Michigan poll that shows the unpopularity of both leading presidential candidates could create an opportunity for a third-party candidate to pick off votes.

In a head-to-head general election match-up, presumptive Democratic nominee Clinton led presumptive Republican nominee Trump 43 percent to 38.5 percent, according to the poll released exclusively to The Detroit News and WDIV-TV. The survey of 600 likely voters found 4 percent saying they’ll vote for someone else and 12 percent remaining undecided.
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So when Bernie's mentioned it suddenly becomes hypothetical? LOL (the FBI are polishing their shoes as I write ;) ).

When Trump was matched against U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who trails Clinton for the Democratic nomination, Sanders led the New York businessman by nearly 19 percentage points [Yeah, baby!].

The telephone survey found Clinton and Trump are both equally unpopular in Michigan. Nearly 60 percent of polled voters view Trump unfavorably, and Clinton is not much better with 57 percent having an unfavorable view of her.

By contrast, Sanders has a slim popularity edge, with 43 percent viewing the democratic socialist favorably and 41 percent unfavorably.
...
In a hypothetical head-to-head match-up, Sanders led Trump 52 percent to 33 percent, according to the poll.
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