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PoliGAF 2016 |OT6| Delete your accounts
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
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Wait, are you saying that Donald Trump is a racist and most of the people who support him are also racists?
WHAT A SHOCK
edit: One of the really interesting things about this graph is that views on immigration don't correlate at all. This is a pretty clear statement that people understand Trump's wall-building and Muslim-banning policies for what they are -- pure statements of xenophobia and anger, rather than actual policy suggestions aimed at solving any problems.
I don't believe it! It just can't be true!
Orbis Tabula
Member
Who cares about California? The morons on CNN will argue over how it's "a big delegate" state, ignoring the fact that a close race there makes it basically a wash. We're talking a spread of a dozen or two delegates at most. Meanwhile, Clinton will clean up in delegate rich New Jersey and, after spending months teasing Californians about how "their vote totally matters this year, honest", Clinton will yank it away from them and clinch the nomination before people there have even finished voting.
Then Bernie Sanders will ride on to DC while everyone shouts "Go Home, Goober!"
Then Bernie Sanders will ride on to DC while everyone shouts "Go Home, Goober!"
Hope you enjoy the ads for the next 5 months.
User 463088
Banned
A few pages ago I posted that I really didn't have time to do it, and ampere said that he would take it.
Is that still the case, ampere? If not, I can try and throw something together tonight/tomorrow if I have time.
vox said:/cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/6583469/trumpcablechyron.jpg)
Vox is calling this a new step forward in cable media covering Trump -- put the fact that he's a liar right in the story summary.
This is kind of what I expect to happen going forward. "The guy running for President is horrendously unqualified, a huge liar, and crazy" is just a better story than "look at how close this race is."
http://www.vox.com/2016/6/2/11841074/trump-cnn-chyron
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
"Pick a president that has only lost 38 lawsuits."
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/738407796606013444
Well, it looks like cable news finally figured out how to cover Trump. This should be good, let's see if he complains about the banners.
Sirpopopop
Member
I'm going to wait for the Hillary stocks on PredictIt for California to drop further before plowing some cash into it.
Already got a nice windfall from the polling ones.
Already got a nice windfall from the polling ones.
Honestly, that kind of is a big and good step forward. Just straight up say it. He's gonna accuse them of being "Liberal MSM" anyway. At least go down being honest.
Orbis Tabula
Member
I'm also expecting this. I think the media will take a certain amount of abuse from politicians, as that's part of the job. But I think people are realizing that 1) you don't need to coddle Trump to get him to talk to your reporters. He probably wants it even more than you do, it's his only strategy, 2) Trump is gonna be a dick to you no matter how nicely you treat him, 3) Clinton is gonna win this anyway, and Trump will blame the media and the RNC in the end, and 4) It's soon going to be impossible to portray this as a close race unless a third party shows up, so this is the only interesting story.
Maybe. But maybe they'll do that for a while, just long enough that the "Close Race" narrative becomes fresh again, and then we'll be back to normal. Who can tell?
soundscream
Member
Looking at my sample NJ ballot Bernie is the first candidate listed #rigged
Box of Kittens
Banned
Benchmark is really bringing this on themselves with their constant self-promotion. Where I really started to notice this, as well as problems with their model in general, was with Indiana.
My first cause for skepticism was their benchmark in Morgan County, which anyone who is familiar with Indiana politics should have known would be a very strong county for Trump. Their benchmark had Trump winning by a 6.5 point margin over Cruz, which struck me as too low. Indeed he won Morgan by 28.4 points, which is not only a large overperformance in an absolute sense, but also in a relative sense (i.e., he outperformed his benchmarks all over the state, but by more than average in Morgan). They also stated that Allen County (Fort Wayne) would be the key county on both sides. The actual result: Cruz won Allen County but lost the state by over 170K votes. They completely whiffed on the Republican side that night.
What was their response? To brag about their performance on the Democratic side. But even then their benchmarks had a 3 point Clinton victory and the actual result was a 5 point Sanders victory. So what was there to brag about? Well, you see, their model uses a mix of demographics and polling and their demographic model alone was favorable to Sanders (no mention that their Republican demographic model underestimated Trump even more than once polls were added). I find this kind of thing akin to a sports betting "tout" who digs through their performance to find something positive ("I'm on a 12-7 current run on 10* rated plays, subscribe to my newsletter!"). It's fundamentally dishonest.
Frankly though I find their Twitter conversation with Cohn and Wasserman to be even more damning. When Cohn points out that their Kentucky county level results weren't particularly good, they responded first by defending their results in such a way to reveal fundamental misunderstandings about the statistics they were using. When this was pointed out, they retreated to arguing the accuracy of their state level results, which is pretty unconvincing when you accompany your projections with the following note:
To make a long story short, I think what Benchmark is doing is conceptually worthwhile (understanding how to interpret county level results is a big help in following an election) and I initially had high hopes for them, but they're looking more and more like another Tyler.
Orbis Tabula
Member
I live in northern Virginia. I was never not going to get ads. I welcome it. Whoever decides to advertise during the Nationals choking in the playoffs will have my full attention.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
They also posted a story flat-out calling him out on it:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/02/politics/donald-trump-nuclear-weapons-japan/index.html
Ha, I didn't realize the jackass even proposed it *twice*.
RastaMentality
Banned
Lol they basically destroyed any chance of Benchmark getting any more money.
Ah well egg on my face then, I assumed the NPP ballot would include whatever choice they had set up for prior since they get to pick.
Also Trump getting blasted on his stance for Japanese nuclear armament is wild. GE's gonna be fun.
metalslimer
Member
Yeah I really liked following Benchmark Shame.
Box of Kittens
Banned
The thing that really got me to go from "this needs some work" to "this is Tyler-tier" was running a regression of county level results on their benchmarks and using the R^2 value to defend their accuracy, and then when it's pointed out that R^2 is the wrong measure, saying they weren't sure why it was wrong.
Veritigo_X
Member
And they're in the middle of a Kickstarter campaign too. Ouch.
+2 for Hillary in CA as of a few weeks ago, wife and I both voted for her. I love vote by mail.
HanShotFirst
Member
lol thats John Oliver, nice try.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I mean that's virtually all he has going for him anymore. Still wild to see though.
Dude lost tremendously with white women though, I don't see the white vote happening similar to Romney without women.
Well he does love the poorly educated.
metalslimer
Member
I really wish I could empathize with their plight but I do wonder if white males are going to become more and more polarized as they become less and less important in elections.
Edit: Its easier to buy into Trumps vision of how America is falling apart if you see how much harder it has become for non college educated people to get a job. If he wasn't so racist maybe he might be able to tap into minority struggles as well but then he probably wouldn't have even won the primary without that racism
Edit: Its easier to buy into Trumps vision of how America is falling apart if you see how much harder it has become for non college educated people to get a job. If he wasn't so racist maybe he might be able to tap into minority struggles as well but then he probably wouldn't have even won the primary without that racism
Aaron Strife
Banned
Less educated = more likely to buy into "I want to have a beer with him" stupidity and willingness to believe people who brag about how smart and amazing they are
Um this is insensitive, no?
No degree = more likely to be unemployed, disaffected, or displaced by trade liberalization. This is the same appeal sanders has to white men, is it not? It's not a stupidity or foolhardiness thing.
Also racism.
my name is ed
Banned
Hmm all the white guys I know without a degree are trump supporters. I only know like 3 and theyre all in laws. Worst offender is my bum ass brother in law.
Daniel B·;205286380 said:WTF, on the "Police treat whites much better" question! Perhaps Bernie's stump speech comment, that police officers are "honest, hard-working people trying to do a difficult job" is really getting through.
He of course follows up with "But let us be clear, if a police officer breaks the law, like any public official, that officer must be held accountable", and I seriously doubt that less Bernie supporters believe whites are treated way better, plus, we are gravely concerned with the universe in which Eric Garner can have his life tragically cut short, for the high crime of selling "loosies" (for fuck's sake!), by a police officer openly using an illegal choke hold restraint, without another officer immediately intervening...
So when Cariol Horne does exactly the right thing (as I suggested), she is harangued out of the police force. Fucking sad, and unless Bernie becomes our President, I see little changing...
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
"Telling it like it is" is really popular among people who have no idea what "it" is.
I think the general answer (in every election) is that people who don't have or need college degrees are far more likely to live in rural areas where the government's presence is seen as intrusive and negative.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Man I kind of don't care what's going on in the mind of someone who's voting for Trump. And as mentioned I've seen plenty of people supporting Trump because he "tells it like it is" more than any real support for policy.
Orbis Tabula
Member
I only have one friend who is a white male without a college degree. Although, he has some post high school education, but no college degree, to my knowledge. I'm curious about his leanings. I know he's conservative, and he's a super Libertarian, but at the same time, he's also really into these notions of "classical masculinity" and machoness and manliness. I doubt he would support Trump, though. He's always been he kind of guy who would prefer and R to a D, but votes Libertarian when the time comes.
However, I do have one friend who is a white male with a college degree that supports Trump. In a sort of "I'm joking about it, but I'm only treating it like a joke because I'm embarrassed to admit my support is sincere" kind of way.
However, I do have one friend who is a white male with a college degree that supports Trump. In a sort of "I'm joking about it, but I'm only treating it like a joke because I'm embarrassed to admit my support is sincere" kind of way.
What's going on in Colorado? I thought smoking pot made you want to skip class.
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