PoliGAF 2016 |OT6| Delete your accounts

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If Johnson is taking away from Hillary more than Trump, doesn't that imply that it is disaffected Bernie supporters being stubborn when answering polls?

When they come home it should give Hillary a boost. They seem to hate Trump, they just need to realize that Johnson is also right wing and voting for him is voting for Trump.
 
pompidu said:
She should bring that up and then ask bernie why her husband signed that bill into law.
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I'm sorry, I forgot Bill and Hillary were a two-headed homunculus. Also, even in that exchange Bernie would have come out looking far far worse since he helped make the deal and push it through Congress.
 
nature boy said:
You think Romney hit peak white voters? C'mon.
I'm assuming, hypothetically that if Kasich was the nominee you think he couldn't win PA either?



Let's give Rasmussen the benefit of the doubt for this election cycle. At least for the time being.


That doesn't include a 3rd party candidate.
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It's still a 3 point swing from their last two-candidate poll.

Adding Johnson seems rather silly at this point except as a gauge of grumpiness toward both candidates I suppose.
 
The GOP has no white knight. Anybody that steals it from Trump will lose even bigger than he would have. He wouldn't be seem as legitimate by the GOP base, meanwhile Trump would spend 4 months shitting on him daily on Twitter and call in news shows.
 
johnsmith said:
The GOP has no white knight. Anybody that steals it from Trump will lose even bigger than he would have. He wouldn't be seem as legitimate by the GOP base, meanwhile Trump would spend 4 months shitting on him daily on Twitter and call in news shows.
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Spot on. The news would happily have Trump on every day to hear him shit on the new nominee.

Hell, CNN would probably give him his own show.
 
Emarv said:
Spot on. The news would happily have Trump on every Dayton hear him shit on the new nominee.

Hell, CNN would probably give him his own show.
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I could hear him now.. "Y'know what, folks? The first Clinton Era wasn't all that bad, was it? I made a ton of money, and it seemed like everyone was doing okay. Punish the Republicans - they lie like dogs! Sad!"
 
There is no way the GOP will replace Trump. The backlash would be immense and it would definitely blow up in their face.

They're just going to keep doing what we've already been seeing; accepting the presidency is a lost cause and trying to secure the Senate instead.
 
GUISE, WHAT IF HE USES HIS RALLY TO DROP OUT?

Is Obama going to address the press after his meeting with Bernie concludes? Can we expect him to walk out and say something like "I know Hillary got dis busta." and drop the mic, for his endorsement?
 
HylianTom said:
I could hear him now.. "Y'know what, folks? The first Clinton Era wasn't all that bad, was it? I made a ton of money, and it seemed like everyone was doing okay. Punish the Republicans - they lie like dogs! Sad!"
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"At least the Clintons were strong. Not like these weak Republicans. No backbones. Very weak!"
 
BiggNife said:
There is no way the GOP will replace Trump. The backlash would be immense and it would definitely blow up in their face.

They're just going to keep doing what we've already been seeing; accepting the presidency is a lost cause and trying to secure the Senate instead.
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Would cost them the White House, but the sooner they dump Trump, the better their chances of keeping the House and Senate.
 
The GOP also has their excuses ready when they lose in November. Trump wasn't a real Republican, he insulted a lot of people, we can do better, blah blah blah. If they put up one of their own guys, he loses, and the party fractures in the process it would be terrible. The second they capitulated, it was too late to go back unless Trump does something truly horrific.
 
Paskil said:
GUISE, WHAT IF HE USES HIS RALLY TO DROP OUT?

Is Obama going to address the press after his meeting with Bernie concludes? Can we expect him to walk out and say something like "I know Hillary got dis busta." and drop the mic, for his endorsement?
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I know you're joking, but I can't see him dropping out in front of a giant crowd of his most devout supporters. You don't want the news story to be 'Bernie Sanders booed by massive crowd of his former supporters' if you're Bernie Sanders.
 
BiggNife said:
There is no way the GOP will replace Trump. The backlash would be immense and it would definitely blow up in their face.

They're just going to keep doing what we've already been seeing; accepting the presidency is a lost cause and trying to secure the Senate instead.
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Not convinced that replacing Trump if he becomes unviable to them would create the backlash people think. They want to win. plan A is to domesticate Trump, plan B is throw him under the bus if he doesn't and save the House and Senate.
 
DrForester said:
Would cost them the White House, but the sooner they dump Trump, the better their chances of keeping the House and Senate.
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That depends, right? I have to imagine of a lot of the Trump supporters are Tea Party types, and a lot of the current congressional republicans were put in by the Tea Party. Wouldn't that betrayal hurt those Congressmen they helped put in?
 
I don't agree. Republicans allllwwwwaaayys fall in line. They'd vote for a literal sack of shit to block Hillary Clinton.
 
Pennsylvania is the classic Republican trap. It looks close enough to be worth going after, but it's an inelastic state with just enough of a Democratic lean to be out of reach in a competitive election. That having been said, the Democrats have done well in the last six presidential elections (Kerry's performance was the worst and he still got over 48%) so there are a number of states that haven't gone Republican since 1988 that nonetheless only have a small Democratic lean.

Regarding 2004 I was under no illusions about everyone going for Kerry. Living in Indiana I knew the state was a lost cause. What I did buy into was the idea that polls showing Bush under 50% were bad for him even if he had the lead because the undecideds were going to break for Kerry. That was kind of the 2004 version of 2012's "Romney's winning independents, ignore the toplines." Between that and seeing the leaked exit polls I was feeling pretty good going into the night. I still remember that feeling as the early numbers weren't coming in the way I expected to and I kept waiting for them to improve and finally it dawned on me that they weren't going to. That night sucked. I did read the voting machine conspiracy theories, but thankfully I didn't buy into them. I really didn't like that Bush got re-elected, but I was willing to accept reality.

I don't actually think Kerry was that bad a candidate though. Given the circumstances of that election, Bush would be favored against a generic Democrat. Kerry wasn't great but he did fine considering. Gore on the other hand was a weak candidate. 2000 absolutely should have been a Democratic victory.
 
DrForester said:
Would cost them the White House, but the sooner they dump Trump, the better their chances of keeping the House and Senate.
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dumping Trump loses them lots of down ticket races too.

The choice is, keep Trump and lose the election, lose some seats... but avoid pissing off Registered republicans, or dump Trump, piss off a lot of registered republicans, still lose the elections and lose some seats.

I think the GOP feel that moderates won't hold Trump against them once he's out of the picture, and that the harm done to the system, the process by doing that would be worse.

We all knew the GOP was racist already even before they started (temporarily) lining up behind Trump. Yes, the last thing they needed right now was a racist, but they have shown zero indication of being ready to quit relying on the votes of bigots even before he got involved.
 
I think the thing that people overlook when discussing whether the GOP would dump Trump is whether they're even organized enough to do so. Any attempt would probably have a dozen different factions going off in different directions and fall apart when they can't agree.
 
B-Dubs said:
I'm sorry, I forgot Bill and Hillary were a two-headed homunculus. Also, even in that exchange Bernie would have come out looking far far worse since he helped make the deal and push it through Congress.
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Uh huh LOL.

If Bill's legacy was shit, she would've had zero chance as a president.
 
I don't think the GOP is going to dump Trump but keep him isolated at the top of the ticket. I think they are going to spend all this time decrying him but will "respect" the will of their voters.
 
Who even are the white knight choices? Every one of them would decline because they're not stupid and know the better choice is a campaign they could actually win in 2020.
 
Box of Kittens said:
I think the thing that people overlook when discussing whether the GOP would dump Trump is whether they're even organized enough to do so. Any attempt would probably have a dozen different factions going off in different directions and fall apart when they can't agree.
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Right. Who is the obvious person they can all line up behind? There's going to be at least 4 people who think they're the obvious person... and it's just not going to happen.
 
pompidu said:
Uh huh LOL.

If Bill's legacy was shit, she would've had zero chance as a president.
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Oh right, Bill was the one who told the people of Sierra Blanca to screw off when they visited his office to ask if he would visit their town and reconsider. He was also the one that fought to get the amendment to the bill that would allow the people of Sierra Blanca to overturn the decision if they could prove racial discrimination removed. Bill was also the one who cut the deal to put the waste there in the first place.

Oh wait, none of that is true. It was all Bernie!

EDIT: And he's still getting paid as a part of the deal!

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/4/16/1516075/-Sanders-are-still-profiting-from-Sierra-Blanca-nuclear-waste-dump-per-their-2014-tax-return
 
I think there will come a time when the polling gap starts to widen where more GoP members try to distance themselves from Trump, but it might be too late! I wonder when they will try to run away from him
 
ampere said:
I think there will come a time when the polling gap starts to widen where more GoP members try to distance themselves from Trump, but it might be too late! I wonder when they will try to run away from him
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It's tricky for them. On one hand, they may lose votes by endorsing, on the other they may lose votes for declining to. Come November the Ryan dance will not work anymore.
 
Box of Kittens said:
Between that and seeing the leaked exit polls I was feeling pretty good going into the night. I still remember that feeling as the early numbers weren't coming in the way I expected to and I kept waiting for them to improve and finally it dawned on me that they weren't going to. That night sucked. .
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This is exactly what I remember too. Ugh. Bush was picking up a bunch of states as the polls closed and I was getting this sinking feeling even as I told myself they were all states he was supposed to win (which they were)... but there was just nothing encouraging for Kerry coming in from the results and it all just petered out over the course of the night. Ugh.
 
Joe Shlabotnik said:
This is exactly what I remember too. Ugh. Bush was picking up a bunch of states as the polls closed and I was getting this sinking feeling even as I told myself they were all states he was supposed to win (which they were)... but there was just nothing encouraging for Kerry coming in from the results and it all just petered out over the course of the night. Ugh.
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That was probably the saddest party I've ever been to in my lifetime. And I'm including funeral gatherings in that distinction.
 
Box of Kittens said:
I think the thing that people overlook when discussing whether the GOP would dump Trump is whether they're even organized enough to do so. Any attempt would probably have a dozen different factions going off in different directions and fall apart when they can't agree.
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Yeah.

If the GOP were organized enough to dump Trump, they would have been organized enough not to nominate him in the first place.

Remember, the big lesson of Trump is that the GOP is completely incapable of even identifying and communicating what it wants, much less achieving it. That's what happens when your coalition fractures.
 
What kind of cracks me up is that Trump is forced to use over 40% of his twitter characters on "Goofy Elizabeth Warren, sometimes referred to as Pocahontas," every time he tweets about her because he thinks he's making a sick burn.
 
I can't get a read on Warren yet. I feel like if she wants the Veep slot it's hers. I think party pressures would gently push Hillary in that direction. It certainly seems as though she's interviewing for the job. I wonder if they have vetted her...
 
NYCmetsfan said:
This is the biggest problem I'm seeing with the young left and a lot of Bernie supporters. They literally lack the ability to understand (I'm not saying agree) that someone might not hold their views on college, foreign policy, health care.

They KNOW they are right and everyone agrees with them so when they face the reality that they're wrong they tend to come up with all these reasons why they're actually not: rigging, media blackout, slander, stupid.
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I agree but I don't really think it's about the young left. When I was the young left I thought the same thing until 2004 forced me to reconsider my understanding of American politics.

I think it's endemic to, you know, youth and growing up in a politically segregated country.

adam387 said:
I can't get a read on Warren yet. I feel like if she wants the Veep slot it's hers. I think party pressures would gently push Hillary in that direction. It certainly seems as though she's interviewing for the job. I wonder if they have vetted her...
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Warren is too politically savvy to visibly ask for something she might not be offered. Hillary just needs to decide what she needs to accomplish with her pick.
 
pigeon said:
Speaking of the 2000s, a decade so terrible there isn't even a useful abbreviation for it, one thing that the Bernie folks remind me of right now is the intense conviction, which I still see in my peer group, that Bush must have stolen the elections in 2000 and 2004 with Diebold's voting machines.

I find it a little embarrassing how many otherwise pretty rational people are still completely convinced that this national fraud happened and all the evidence was perfectly suppressed, because they can't believe that people would just vote for George W. Bush.
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Funny you should mention 2000. Since this once hits close to home, I've become a bit of an evangelist for this bit of forgotten history. Remember all the hubbub about South Florida and the hanging chads? The court handing Bush a victory by a margin of 537 votes? While the Nations' attention was riveted to South Florida, the more devastating blow to the Gore campaign came from North Florida. How bad? 10% of the 292,000 total votes of Duval County were nullified. 27,000 votes total. 5,000 overvotes and 22,000 undervotes. Interestingly, the majority of these undervotes came from predominantly minority, Democratic neighborhoods.
Truth is, Democrats are the ones outraged about Duval. They’re angry because close to half the voided ballots — nearly 12,000 votes — came from just four of Duval County’s 14 city districts. The four districts cover predominantly African-American areas of Jacksonville, where Vice President Al Gore won handily.
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Errors occur every election. Couldn't this just be par for the course?
What’s so unusual, according to election experts such as Bob Naegele, who certifies voting machines for the Federal Election Commission, is that the normal rate of overvoting when punch-card ballots are used is roughly 0.1 percent. In Duval County last Tuesday, the rate ballooned to 7.5 percent. “That kind of percentage is just outrageous,” he says. Even in Palm Beach County, where some residents say confusion reigned on Election Day and 29,000 ballots were dismissed, the overvote rate climbed to only 4.1 percent.
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But why didn't Gore contest these votes, the way his campaign did in South Florida? Here's where things get a little interesting.
Langton claims that a day after the election he asked Republican county supervisor of elections John Stafford how many ballots were nullified. “He said, ‘Oh, not that many, two or three hundred.’ I asked him, ‘When can I get exact numbers?’ He said, ‘I can’t get you that until Monday.’ But he sent those specifics to Tallahassee last Wednesday. I don’t have any reason to believe why he’d purposely misled me, but he did.”

Neither Stafford, nor his spokeswoman, returned calls for comment.
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According to Gore's Northeast Florida campaign chairman, he didn't learn of the inconsistency until a local reporter called with the information. By then it was too late. While it's easy to dismiss claims of fraud as conspiracy theory, the 2000 Florida debacle had more than enough inconsistencies to warrant a hard look. Unfortunately, upon recount George W. Bush won the popular vote, 5-4.
 
adam387 said:
I can't get a read on Warren yet. I feel like if she wants the Veep slot it's hers. I think party pressures would gently push Hillary in that direction. It certainly seems as though she's interviewing for the job. I wonder if they have vetted her...
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It depends on how the Sanders issue is resolved.

If it's a positive outcome, then they don't need to put her on the ticket to please the more progressive side of the party.
 
No, I know she won't ask for it. I mean I doubt know if she wants it or not. I feel like you could read the tea leaves either way. If she wanted it, agreed all through surrogates who have Queens ear. I get that she hates Trump, but she's been really upping her attacks and visibility in the last few months.
 
Sanders speaking now, surprisingly praising Obama and Biden for being fair this election.

edit: Lmao, can he ever not give a stump speech, lol.
 
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