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PoliGAF 2016 |OT6| Delete your accounts

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Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Hot take:

The Republicans can't win another Presidential election without the party entirely revamping. The only base they continue to focus on is white people and yes, white people are dwindling in vote share.

They'll keep winning a lot of Congressional seats and level elections, but it looks demographically impossible for them to win the big house again

Yeah, and the longer they take the more left the Supreme Court will shift.
 
Hot take:

The Republicans can't win another Presidential election without the party entirely revamping. The only base they continue to focus on is white people and yes, white people are dwindling in vote share.

They'll keep winning a lot of Congressional seats and level elections, but it looks demographically impossible for them to win the big house again

Honestly, I agree. Romney's numbers were as good as it'll get for the GOP in their current state, and those numbers are progressively worse for the GOP moving forward (since Romney's share of the white vote was worth more in 2012 than it would be in 2016, even if Trump could hit such a high mark).

Until the GOP can chip into their demographic problems, they're done for. Hell, they're already pretty much perma-cooked in the minds of black voters. If Hispanic voters end up so heavily skewed to the left (and Trump gives me a lot of reasons to think they will be), then they're really done for. I don't see how that would even be fixable.

If the Dems can go easier in presidential races, then they can focus and shore up a bunch of down-ticket support too. The Senate has always been easily flipped (as is its nature), but the House could become the new battleground for ideology. If the GOP ever lost it, they would lose all connections to the federal government since the Senate, Supreme Court, and Presidency would all be likely controlled by Dems.

Truly an interesting time to be alive.
 
This also oddly describes a certain other political figure running right now:

hmm
I'd like to add on something anecdotal-- The test of precise what makes you "pure" might change without notice, and will often be entirely illogical. As a quick example, think of Sanders supporters and their relationships with Supers. You were establishment scum for talking about their support back in March, but almost overnight (it was around the FL/NC/VA bloodbath, I think?) it became vital to convince them all of following Bernie's grand leadership. Things went from 100% evil condemnation of them even existing to 100% absolute admiration that technically they're not counted until the convention floor and can thus change their minds at any time.

A box of contradictions, but you're also kicked out for ever mentioning that any of it is a contradiction. Has the question of "they should/shouldn't count" ever actually been resolved? Like, once even? By anyone? Without opening up another contradiction?

The tea party rising was full of similar twists and still has them regarding leadership and seemingly random support or opposition to what look like benign bills. Gamergate, the same. Hell, super mega purity testing and shifting forced them to move forum and imageboard hubs a number of times. Sometimes because they refused to bend to site policies (like doxxing) and other times just because an admin said something they didn't like.

Surely this sort of behavior is common enough, but in the internet outrage era of ultra-skewed signal-to-noise ratios things risk an actual cultural confrontation at some point that could be dangerous and violent at some point. The era of needing huge masses of millions of people to work together and march in the streets time and time again is mostly over. Trump's new consolidation of "any white male with any complaints about any other group for any reason ever" under the same banner is troubling. They were always racist as hell, but previously not outright hostile to specific other cultures or philosophies.
 

hawk2025

Member
I've come to the conclusion that the most annoying position in political debates is "yeah, but you don't know that for sure".

No shit.
 

TyrantII

Member
Yeah, people keep saying "Texas will be a swing state in a decade" but actually, that's Georgia. The Virginia/North Carolina/Georgia/Florida corridor has promising demographic trends for Democrats. They just need to turn out in midterms.

Why not both?

Add in Arizona
 
I'd like to add on something anecdotal-- The test of precise what makes you "pure" might change without notice, and will often be entirely illogical. As a quick example, think of Sanders supporters and their relationships with Supers. You were establishment scum for talking about their support back in March, but almost overnight (it was around the FL/NC/VA bloodbath, I think?) it became vital to convince them all of following Bernie's grand leadership. Things went from 100% evil condemnation of them even existing to 100% absolute admiration that technically they're not counted until the convention floor and can thus change their minds at any time.

I can think of no better way to disenfranchise minorities who voted 2:1 against Bernie than to flip the nomination away from the popular vote with superdelegates.

But that's OK. Privileged white independent liberals give no fucks.
 
I can think of no better way to disenfranchise minorities who voted 2:1 against Bernie than to flip the nomination away from the popular vote with superdelegates.

But that's OK. Privileged white independent liberals give no fucks.
There's another common paradox. The expression of "doing it for the people" or "for everyone" or to "make the world a better place," or whatever. Doing it via your own very specific script that you've written without any input from the people you're trying to help, nor demanding any answers from the people proposing the stuff in the first place. Sometimes accepting help from people with zero skin in the game at all (international phonebankers, as one example).

I've had to use the term "Berniesplain" too many times this year, but every single time I do, the person 100% gets what I'm trying to express about the hardcore Sanders crowd. It clicks that, wait, they're white, educated and live in a renowned liberal bastion city and no matter who gets elected president they're going to be fine in the immediate term. They have talents for a new job market, actual retirement accounts, equity, decent health care, etc. White people typically just enjoy our lovely privilege. Our trying to enforce what we think are its benefits onto all other people is new. (Vast oversimplifications of white people and Sanders supporters, of course)
 
Queen of money.
So, basically his burn rate hasn't dropped much at all while his fundraising has slowed a lot more.

He had $17.5M at the end of March.
So he spent around $38.6M in April.

Any hope of translating that pool of cash into something for downticket or some sort of grassroots NFP flew out the window I imagine.
 
So, basically his burn rate hasn't dropped much at all while his fundraising has slowed a lot more.

He had $17.5M at the end of March.
So he spent around $38.6M in April.

Any hope of translating that pool of cash into something for downticket or some sort of grassroots NFP flew out the window I imagine.

How much does he have to give back from illegal contributions?

I guess only Hillary can have a system smart enough to cut people off at $2700 per donor for some reason.

Maybe IT workers aren't donating their time to Bernie. Or maybe he just waves them off and doesn't use them.
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Low energy establishment neoliberalism
That's like saying liquid wet water, fam.

She said it was too vague, i'd imagine they just have to change some wording around and she would sign it. But yeah, i was shocked when i received that news alert.
Not shocked at all. Depriving Hillary of a wedge issue and hoping against hope they can just try again after a president Trump nominated Scalia's replacement.
 
How much does he have to give back from illegal contributions?

I guess only Hillary can have a system smart enough to cut people off at $2700 per donor for some reason.

Maybe IT workers aren't donating their time to Bernie. Or maybe he just waves them off and doesn't use them.

I think estimates for the most recent numbers were $750k-$1 million. It's not a small chunk of change, but it's probably not campaign ending, to be honest.

Also, Zootopia is AMAZING.
 
I'm curious whether his campaign ends in debt like Clinton's did in 2008, despite the massive amounts raised. It took her like 5 years to clear those.

If I recall ad buys are back on in California. Because that's clearly a good use of money.
 
This is Matt Bruenig's best bro:

Ci4N41oUUAAcuN6.jpg


Ci4N40zUoAI_wNu.jpg
 
Hmmm

Jacobin Magazine published a piece by Amber A'Lee Frost on Saturday denouncing the "troubling new trend in younger leftist circles" of ascribing all sexism to "bros". The article hung all of its critical extrapolation on what amounted to two tweets, one by Aaron Bady, and a second by Al Jazeera English writer Sarah Kenzior. Kendzior objected to the use of her tweet, a reply to a friend in which she characterized someone sending her rape threats as a "brocialist," particularly since it was used by Frost as a finger-wagging example of how one ought not to use the word "bro." In fact, Frost later* writes "Give me a card-carrying brocialist over one of these oily “allies” any day," which it's hard to interpret any way other than explicit support for the person sending Kendzior rape threats, so what's that about?

Give me a Socialist even if they're sending rape threats to woman.

Jacobin.com

http://www.newsweek.com/today-tabs-ready-left-254155
 

royalan

Member
How much in the way of ad buys could 5 million get him in such a large, diverse and competitive market like California? And it's not like he could use all or even most of that money. He's still got a campaign to sustain...
 

Drakeon

Member
How much in the way of ad buys could 5 million get him in such a large, diverse and competitive market like California? And it's not like he could use all or even most of that money. He's still got a campaign to sustain...

SF & LA are two of the highest priced TV markets in the country, so not much.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Well May has been kind to him, though the fact they haven't said anything does imply donations are down.

But honestly it's getting to the point in the semester where I used to run low on meal points so I had to conserve my dollars when I was in college.

Gosh, rationing. What a horrible feeling to have to not have what you want whenever you want it.
 

Paskil

Member
Well May has been kind to him, though the fact they haven't said anything does imply donations are down.

But honestly it's getting to the point in the semester where I used to run low on meal points so I had to conserve my dollars when I was in college.

Gosh, rationing. What a horrible feeling to have to not have what you want whenever you want it.

Sanders could use one those bread lines right about now, except with money instead of bread.
 
Well May has been kind to him, though the fact they haven't said anything does imply donations are down.

But honestly it's getting to the point in the semester where I used to run low on meal points so I had to conserve my dollars when I was in college.

Gosh, rationing. What a horrible feeling to have to not have what you want whenever you want it.
It's usually the end of the month that the campaigns make any announcements about fundraising.

Although I guess there haven't been any "We raised X million in one night!" email blasts.

Besides these aren't just any college kids that are True Bernievers. You need a special sort of privilege to be #bernieorbust.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
It's usually the end of the month that the campaigns make any announcements about fundraising.

Although I guess there haven't been any "We raised X million in one night!" email blasts.

Besides these aren't just any college kids that are True Bernievers. You need a special sort of privilege to be #bernieorbust.

no they always said after a big win or a loss OMG WE RAISED 8 MILLION FROM POORS or whatever

oh u said that in the second sentence but i stopped reading after the fifth word lol
 

johnsmith

remember me
Poor Megyn. Her interview flopped in viewers, and was panned by the media.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/05/whats-next-for-megyn-kelly.html

Megyn Kelly’s much-publicized broadcast special with Donald Trump was supposed to launch the Fox News star into the stratosphere of television anchordom. Instead, the widely panned show seems to have achieved the opposite result: It exposed the extent of her limited mainstream appeal. Kelly drew just 4.8 million viewers on Tuesday night, a number television executives say is a disappointment by any measure. Three senior executives I spoke with say an audience of 9 million would have been a success. "Not good for her at all," was how one insider put it.

In the days since, Kelly has been working to contain the fallout. She took aim at critics on her cable show Wednesday night by deploying an age-old Fox News tactic: claiming the backlash was a result of liberal media bias. But behind the scenes, she is said to be worried about the response. “She’s very upset with the show reaction, and in hindsight with how it was produced,” one Fox veteran told me.

The question for Kelly and her agents at CAA is where to go from here. Before the special, she had maneuvered herself into a position of significant leverage over her boss Roger Ailes and seemed poised to land either a new deal from Fox with a salary in the $25 million range or a plum job at another network. Industry sources said Ailes couldn’t afford to lose Kelly. Now her advantage looks smaller — a turn of events that surely pleases Ailes. According to one Fox insider, Ailes was heard “snickering” in a meeting yesterday when the topic of Kelly’s special came up in conversation. (Ailes's spokesperson Irena Briganti did not respond to a request for comment.)

For their part, Kelly's team doesn't seem eager to talk about the program. When I called her CAA agent Matt DelPiano to ask him about the special, he hung up.

Her defense is hilarious, MEDIA BIAS!
http://video.foxnews.com/v/49004727...s-interview-with-donald-trump/?#sp=show-clips
 
https://shiksappeal.wordpress.com/2016/05/18/berned-by-bernie-sanders/

I know this is anecdotal but it is a very interesting read from someone who was very supportive of Bernie and transitioned to queen based on his shit campaign team.

Also the part what the only on the record thing was Bernie's belief that people with chronic pain should focus on yoga and meditation is fucking bullshit
As someone who lives wiith chronic eye pain (you know how it feels to have a hair in your eyes? Welcome to my world 24 hours a day....) I'd cut off my left arm to be pain free for a week. get out of here with that bullshit

Running against and losing spectacularly to Obama made Hillary a 100 times better candidate today then she was in 2008. Hey campaign has been on point from day one. On the other side Bernie is simply Amateur hour.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
They'll kick Megan Kelly out of Fox to make amends with Super Trump, their new favorite guy, and get his supporters back.
 

royalan

Member

Who's surprised? She sold herself out even agreeing to do the interview. The ass-kissing fest it ended up being was obvious from the moment it was announced. Everyone knew what this was. No way would Trump intentionally submit himself to being grilled the way Kelly probably actually wanted to grill him. A complete waste of the capital she gained from Trump attacking her.

And THIS is why Trump is impervious to the media and why he KNOWS it: their desire to maintain access to him will trump all pretense of integrity.
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Hot take:

The Republicans can't win another Presidential election without the party entirely revamping. The only base they continue to focus on is white people and yes, white people are dwindling in vote share.

They'll keep winning a lot of Congressional seats and level elections, but it looks demographically impossible for them to win the big house again
Hotter take:

All they need to take the White House is a struggling economy or medium scandal ahead of a midterm.
 

royalan

Member
I just want Hillary to bury Trump in a debate. Goad him on abd nake him at something so awful he gets wrecked.

Frankly, I think Hillary needs to do a little of that now.

Reading through my news feed, one criticism I see of Hillary's campaign when it comes to taking on Trump that I find myself starting to agree with is that she needs to be bit more proactive and less reactive. She doesn't have to go full dopey like him, but I do think she needs a bigger strategy than "wait for Trump to do something stupid then pounce." Even if it's with his idiocy, this tactic still allows him to control the narrative.

I dunno...thoughts?
 
Hot take:

The Republicans can't win another Presidential election without the party entirely revamping. The only base they continue to focus on is white people and yes, white people are dwindling in vote share.

They'll keep winning a lot of Congressional seats and level elections, but it looks demographically impossible for them to win the big house again

I still think the business cycle and economy ensure they can still win elections before the party re-adjusts. A recession or prolonged low growth period could hand republicans the White House. Not to mention the danger of Hillary not getting much of anything accomplished in her first term, assuming republicans keep the House. Bad economy, lack of keeping promises, and the inevitable petty Clinton scandals could create a climate for republicans to exploit.

The battle for the republican party's future is going to continue after Trump's loss. I'd imagine that we'll get more lip service about moderation but as we get closer and closer to 2018 the same extremism will rear its head. The establishment basically presented their "best" shot this year and failed with multiple candidates (Bush/Rubio/Kasich/Walker). I could see Walker returning and doing better next time but I'm not sold on him being the guy to unite the party. In fact I'd expect another insurgent type candidate to win again unless the RNC significantly alters the primary rules/schedule.
 
It seems like she is reactive so often because trump will say something controversial and win the news cycle, prompting her to respond. She could try proposing some bold policy, instead of being all "I'm the sane one" all the time
 
Frankly, I think Hillary needs to do a little of that now.

Reading through my news feed, one criticism I see of Hillary's campaign when it comes to taking on Trump that I find myself starting to agree with is that she needs to be bit more proactive and less reactive. She doesn't have to go full dopey like him, but I do think she needs a bigger strategy than "wait for Trump to do something stupid then pounce." Even if it's with his idiocy, this tactic still allows him to control the narrative.

I dunno...thoughts?

I think she's still holding back because of the primary not being over. It's a fucking headline when she says "I'm going to be the nominee" right now so going big on Trump wouldn't be s effective.
 
I can't believe that >=40% of America is going to look at a guy who thinks vaccines cause autism and think "I could vote for this guy to lead the country and control thousands of nuclear weapons."

It's not like Hillary or Jeb or the rest even think it's worth attacking because people don't care. And that's just incredibly sad.
 
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