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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour

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Bowdz

Member
New Marist polls:

Colorado:

Hillary: 43
Trump: 35

Florida:

Hillary: 44
Trump: 37

North Carolina:

Hillary: 44
Trump: 38

Virginia:

Hillary: 44
Trump: 35

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/753801297665617920

But Murphy is still losing and Ross is getting dominated.

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/753802026723663872

Come on, Ross :(

Ross losing the NC Senate race by 8 points while Hillary wins NC by 6 seems... unlikely?

OH SHIT! TRUMP IS NOW OUR PRESIDENT! FUCK FUCK FUCK FUCK!
Am I doing this right?

Just wait until the general gets underway in full. I'd bet money on the NC Senate race tightening once Bams and Hilldawg start swinging through regularly and making the case for Ross and against Burr.
 
Look at the surprise on my face.

image.php
 

kess

Member
Also, Truman was massively unpopular. Like, Dubya in 2008 unpopular.

That reminds me of this Wikipedia page that reads as apologia for MacArthur. Gotta love how Samuel "excess of democracy" Huntington is called out there.

There's a road in my town that was named after MacArthur in the wake of his dismissal.

Trump is a major beliver in the clash of civilization idea, even if he hasn't reached it academically, so perhaps there's less difference between him and the mindset of Republicans in the 50s that anyone would care to admit.
 

Bowdz

Member
Look at the surprise on my face.

Indeed.

Clinton wants someone who will help her get things done and she doesn't want to have to worry about Warren publicly breaking with her when she gets a pragmatic streak and decides to start cutting deals with the GOP.
 

Iolo

Member
Just remembered Pence has a noon deadline tomorrow to declare for re-election. Would be hilarious if Trump doesn't make a decision in time.
 

royalan

Member
I haven't seen anything approaching excitement or even interest in Kaine post rally. Even before the tragedy in Nice took over the news cycle.

Warren's one rally generated a week's worth of excitement.

The lesson Hillary should take from that is, if not Warren, SOMEONE not Kaine.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
This only further twists the knife if true

Obama got lucky with Biden. He needed a big legislative and foreign policy dick and Biden was swinging pipe. I'm not sure either of them saw themselves becoming so close. I can definitely see why Clinton would want someone she already along with though, just makes things easier.
 

itschris

Member
What happened to the Latino picks, Perez, Castro, and Becerra?

Well, this CNN article from a week ago said that Castro and Becerra were "no longer thought to be in serious contention", but that Perez was still an option. There's also this article on Politico from a few days ago about Perez:

Unlike the other people being speculated about as running mate picks, Perez has actually gotten to know the Clintons, and they’ve both taken a shine to him after the year he spent putting his own progressive credentials on the line to knock back Bernie Sanders. Arguing forcefully that she’s a change agent—the former president’s made clear he’s particularly sensitive when people say otherwise—appears to have made an impression, too.

Clinton’s inner circle is debating whether entrenched opinions about both her and Donald Trump leaves them free to pick a running mate without having to worry about moving the needle in a state or a particular demographic or political agenda, wondering if the focus should be fully on the potential partnership of the next eight years.

It certainly won’t be decided on long personal relationships, since with the exception of Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, who’s not seen as in deep contention, Clinton doesn’t know well any of the people being talked about as her pick.

So perhaps Perez is still in contention, even though he wasn't one of the five people on the list in that more recent CNN article. Of course, who knows, Hillary could surprise everyone and pick someone completely out of left field!
 

Magni

Member
Well, this CNN article from a week ago said that Castro and Becerra were "no longer thought to be in serious contention", but that Perez was still an option. There's also this article on Politico from a few days ago about Perez:



So perhaps Perez is still in contention, even though he wasn't one of the five people on the list in that more recent CNN article. Of course, who knows, Hillary could surprise everyone and pick someone completely out of left field!

Thanks for the link, I'd missed it.

Another question re: VPs

Why did Trump "have to" pick first? How is the ordering of the conventions decided? Does it rotate every election or something?
 

Grief.exe

Member
Local NBC affiliate just showed the Senate poll for Colorado. Forget what the Republican was at, but the Bennett was at 53%
Republican is at 38, Bennett is going to win.

I don't understand why they are running these far right wing conservatives in Colorado anyways, are they not paying attention to demographics?

Yes, there is a rural population to the east and a military base to the south, that does not supersede the massive amount of minorities and educated whites flooding to the metropolitan area.
 
I haven't seen anything approaching excitement or even interest in Kaine post rally. Even before the tragedy in Nice took over the news cycle.

Warren's one rally generated a week's worth of excitement.

The lesson Hillary should take from that is, if not Warren, SOMEONE not Kaine.

Yeah.. I'm on the "we can't play it safe" boat and Hillary really needs someone who will help energize her and the voters..

but our inability to win gubernatorial races is killing our pool right now.

I understand not choosing Warren but gughghhh.. How are we at the point where Kaine is like the only guy who won't cost us a senate seat.

Booker or Brown would have been great :/
 

itschris

Member
Why did Trump "have to" pick first? How is the ordering of the conventions decided? Does it rotate every election or something?

Interesting question, I hadn't thought of that before. I found this article on Slate from 2012:

What decides whether the Republican or Democratic National Convention goes first in an election year?

For now, incumbency. There’s no hard-and-fast rule governing the convention calendar, but since 1956, when Dwight D. Eisenhower held office, the party in control of the White House has traditionally gone second. Between 1864 and 1952, the Democrats routinely followed the Republicans. The one exception was in 1888, when POTUS Grover Cleveland’s Democratic Party preceded the GOP, which would nominate Benjamin Harrison. Before that, starting with the two parties’ first nominating conventions in 1832, it was a bit of a toss-up.

So it's just become a tradition for the party in the White House to go last - if they wanted to, one of the parties could break with that tradition.
 
At this point I'm pretty close to saying the party of Trump (which isn't to say the former GOP) has pretty much only one unifying ideology. And that's white supremacy.
it's a good thing you're close to saying it and not saying it, because that statement would be inflammatory and incorrect
 
We'll see how many votes he gets in November.
that does not concern me. The republican party of today retains its slavish devotion to unfettered capitalism, gun worship, and passive acceptance of the surveillance state to "prevent" "terrorism". There is more going on than hating minorities.
 
If she's relying on the VP pick to maintain "excitement" in her campaign through to November, she may as well just pack it up.

I cannot for the life of me figure out this premium people are putting on being personally excited by the running mate. It's supposed to be the post presumptive nominee pre pick news cycle. It's not supposed to be the continuing story. Example of when your running mate becomes the ongoing story Sarah ducking Palin.

Middle America Ohio soccer mom or Florida Hispanic granny isn't going to be excited for any of these picks anyway.
 

royalan

Member
that does not concern me. The republican party of today retains its slavish devotion to unfettered capitalism, gun worship, and passive acceptance of the surveillance state to "prevent" "terrorism". There is more going on than hating minorities.

It can be argued that a hatred/fear of brown people girds all those points you just mentioned.
 

pigeon

Banned
that does not concern me. The republican party of today retains its slavish devotion to unfettered capitalism, gun worship, and passive acceptance of the surveillance state to "prevent" "terrorism". There is more going on than hating minorities.

Trump doesn't represent a good candidate for any of those causes, and he won.
 

Valhelm

contribute something
that does not concern me. The republican party of today retains its slavish devotion to unfettered capitalism, gun worship, and passive acceptance of the surveillance state to "prevent" "terrorism". There is more going on than hating minorities.

The Democrats aren't much better when it comes to the embracing capital exploitation or limiting the freedoms of citizens.

Trump doesn't represent a good candidate for any of those causes, and he won.

Right. He went straight for the white supremacist bread and circuses.
 
Kris' favorite president is already getting shit done.

MANILA: The Philippine government on Thursday (Jul 14) hailed its war on drugs a "success", as police confirmed killing nearly 200 people in a two-month blitz that has outraged rights groups.

President Rodrigo Duterte's office released a statement calling for authorities to "seize the momentum" of the anti-drug campaign, which has also led to a spate of vigilante killings.

"Anti-drug campaign a success," said the title of the statement, released by presidential spokesman Martin Andanar.

"While the campaign against drugs is far from perfect, a generation of Filipinos have been saved from this scourge of society and destroyer of lives."

His statement was issued as the national police released figures showing that officers had killed at least 192 people they said were involved in drugs from May 10 to July 10.

State sanctioned vigilante massacres, fuck yeah.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/philippines-hails-deadly/2957520.html
 

Chichikov

Member
If she's relying on the VP pick to maintain "excitement" in her campaign through to November, she may as well just pack it up.

I cannot for the life of me figure out this premium people are putting on being personally excited by the running mate. It's supposed to be the post presumptive nominee pre pick news cycle. It's not supposed to be the continuing story. Example of when your running mate becomes the ongoing story Sarah ducking Palin.

Middle America Ohio soccer mom or Florida Hispanic granny isn't going to be excited for any of these picks anyway.
The VP pick is like the Super Bowl media day - It is unimportant, we only pay attention to it because we care about the ultimate prize, and unless really stupid people are involved, it's boring as fuck.
 

Crocodile

Member
So no new thread for those Marist polls? People on GAF just love to diablos.

I've noticed a lot of the "Clinton in disarray!" threads have been started by Trump supporters/Hilary haters.........

Not all of them of course and perhaps that's not surprising but just sayin'
 
Yeah, I am not terribly worried about the GE polls that came out. Anything that included call dates on the day or day after of the FBI announcement I would expect to have a big spike of "not sure" responses coming from otherwise Hillary voters.
 

watershed

Banned
The VP pick is like the Super Bowl media day - It is unimportant, we only pay attention to it because we care about the ultimate prize, and unless really stupid people are involved, it's boring as fuck.
In Hillary's case, I think it's because Hillary herself is not a very well liked candidate so people are hoping she picks someone they can like or get excited about personality-wise.
 
it's a good thing you're close to saying it and not saying it, because that statement would be inflammatory and incorrect

Trump doesn't represent a good candidate for any of those causes, and he won.

pigeon kind of hits my points.

He's not on the GOPs line with trade, pence disagrees, he's not with them on abortion though he'll toe the line, hes not with them on islam, lgbt, etc etc.

What is tying the gop together other than resentment and a desire to keep "americans (whites)" winning

I don't mean everybody is a racist KKK types but I mean white supremacy as in the idea that their voices are privileged over others. the muslim comments are further proof of this.

the gop of trump will tolerate any heterodoxy as long as non-whites are worse off and othered
 
Apparently conservatives are digging deep and revisiti those bullshit PP videos from last year or 2 years ago--whichever it was. Guess they don't want people to get Hillary-bashing fatigue, and need to switch it up. Maybe they'll revisit Benghazi while they're at it.
 

watershed

Banned
Apparently conservatives are digging deep and revisiti those bullshit PP videos from last year or 2 years ago--whichever it was. Guess they don't want people to get Hillary-bashing fatigue, and need to switch it up. Maybe they'll revisit Benghazi while they're at it.

Aren't they dedicating a whole day of the RNC to Benghazi and a greatest hits collection of Clinton controversies?
 

royalan

Member
pigeon kind of hits my points.

He's not on the GOPs line with trade, pence disagrees, he's not with them on abortion though he'll toe the line, hes not with them on islam, lgbt, etc etc.

What is tying the gop together other than resentment and a desire to keep "americans (whites)" winning

I don't mean everybody is a racist but I mean white supremacy as in the idea that their voices are privileged over others

Another word for that is racisssssmmmmm
 

pigeon

Banned
Couple more things from today.

Firstly, about that letter to Sheldon Adelson, Josh Barro asks the smart question of why it's a letter to begin with. Why would you put that in writing? Why would you depend on a letter when you have six days to get the money? The best explanation is that somebody put it in writing in order to leak it -- either someone at the RNC, or Adelson asked for it in writing and leaked it. Possibly in retaliation about the Newt not being VP thing. Again, just another case of Trump's campaign having enormous problems with leaks from people with motivations that don't involve Trump's interests, because nobody likes him. The multiple contradictory leaks about the VP choice are another example.

Secondly, Jacobin has a good article on how Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn are similar and have similar problems specifically because they both lived in the political wilderness for so long and built strategies around surviving in that environment.

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/07/bernie-sanders-jeremy-corbyn-socialist/

An important observation that Sanders has always actually been a pretty pragmatic politician, because he has to be in order to survive neoliberalism and stay in office. Also I think an insightful note that one clear weakness that Sanders ran into, say with BLM, is that he has never actually tried to run a campaign where he'd have to be accountable to a mass movement. The attacks on him have always come from "the establishment."
 
Sanders dropped the ball so hard on race issues you'd think the thing was made out of lead. I suppose you can say his being from the whitest state in he Union kinda killed him there. VT doesn't exactly have a history of racial issues, but the man grew up in NYC and worked in DC for long enough that he should have had a better response to issues involving race than "no no no, it's an economic issue".
 

bomma_man

Member
That reminds me of this Wikipedia page that reads as apologia for MacArthur. Gotta love how Samuel "excess of democracy" Huntington is called out there.

There's a road in my town that was named after MacArthur in the wake of his dismissal.

Trump is a major beliver in the clash of civilization idea, even if he hasn't reached it academically, so perhaps there's less difference between him and the mindset of Republicans in the 50s that anyone would care to admit.

Clash of civilisations seems like the ultimate self fulfilling prophecy. If anyone of consequence believes it, it'll probably happen.
 

Foffy

Banned
Interesting Harvard poll of young people (18-29).

http://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/harvard-iop-spring-2016-poll

Socialism and Capitalism are pretty unpopular, the military is the only institution that young people trust. Fascism on the way (lol).

I can understand the aversion to both Socialism and Capitalism, for one may need a hybrid of both in major ways to deal with looming challenges, but trusting the military? The ones who are most likely to profit from conflict? The same military that may enter a new level of danger if mixed with artificial intelligence, something even the government is concerned about?

That's awfully naive.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
who cares?

the obsession with someone who was always a two bit fantasy writer as been weird.

he had his 15 minutes. no need to drag up random people who have no relevance.

Yeah, unless someone is still paying him for articles and the like, i'm done with Mr. Delusion.
 
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