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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour

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Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
12 points is an unprecedented landslide. You are crazy if you think she wins by 12. That's 56 to 44. That is not happening evar. Republicans have a baseline of like 45 because old fucks go vote like it's the highlight of their year.

edit: WAHHHHYYY AGAIN
 
H

HanShotFirst

Member
nature boy said:
Don't care about the margin, it's all about the electoral college.

Win NC and Georgia.

Make them sweat Texas.

Let's see Kansas and Arkansas.
Click to expand...

See, Im confident with the electoral college. the thing Im not confident with is the House of Representatives. Thats gonna need some big coattails from Clinton to take back.
 
I

itschris

Member
Politico Magazine: What Exactly Would It Mean to Have Trump’s Finger on the Nuclear Button?

What would it mean to have Trump’s fingers on the nuclear button? We don't really know, but we do know this: In the atomic age, when decisions must be made very quickly, the presidency has evolved into something akin to a nuclear monarchy. With a single phone call, the commander in chief has virtually unlimited power to rain down nuclear weapons on any adversarial regime and country at any time. You might imagine this awesome executive power would be hamstrung with checks and balances, but by law, custom and congressional deference there may be no responsibility where the president has more absolute control. There is no advice and consent by the Senate. There is no second-guessing by the Supreme Court. Even ordering the use of torture—which Trump infamously once said he would do, insisting the military “won’t refuse. They’re not gonna refuse me”—imposes more legal constraints on a president than ordering a nuclear attack.

If he were president, Donald Trump—who likes to say he doesn't spend a lot of time conferring with others ("My primary consultant is myself," he declared in March)—would be free to launch a civilization-ending nuclear war on his own any time he chose.

...

If he gave the command, his executing commanders would have no legal or procedural grounds to defy it no matter how inappropriate it might seem. As long as the president can establish his or her true identity by his or her personal presence in the Pentagon’s nuclear war room or its alternates (places like Site R at Fort Richie near Camp David), or by phone or other means of communications linking him or her to these war rooms using a special identification card (colloquially known as “the biscuit” containing “the nuclear codes”) in his or her possession (or, alternatively, kept inside the “nuclear briefcase” carried by his or her military aide who shadows the president everywhere he or she works, travels and plays), a presidential nuclear decision is lawful (putting international humanitarian law aside). It must be obeyed as long as it is constitutional—i.e., the president as commander in chief believes he or she is acting to protect and defend the nation against an actual or imminent attack.

But within these broad constraints there is no wiggle room for evasion or defiance of the president’s orders. That’s true even if the national security adviser, the secretary of defense (who along with the president makes up the “national command authority”) and other top appointees and advisers disagree with the president’s decision. It does not matter whether the United States has already come under attack by nuclear or non-nuclear weapons. It does not even matter if the commander in chief simply orders the use of nuclear weapons on an ordinary day for reasons unknown to all but him or her. Under the president’s open-ended mandate to decide when the national interest is threatened, ordering up a nuclear strike is his or her prerogative, and obeying the order is incumbent upon the military servants of civilian authority.
Click to expand...

Much more at the link.
 
H

HanShotFirst

Member
Y2Kev said:
12 points is an unprecedented landslide. You are crazy if you think she wins by 12. That's 56 to 44. That is not happening evar. Republicans have a baseline of like 45 because old fucks go vote like it's the highlight of their year.

edit: WAHHHHYYY AGAIN
Click to expand...

Might as well go big or go home.

I only meant 12 as the high end of the range. I doubt she gets that. probably closer to 10.

Also I think the baseline fro Trump will be lower than 45. Realistically 43 -44%
 
R

RustyNails

Member
HanShotFirst said:
See, Im confident with the electoral college. the thing Im not confident with is the House of Representatives. Thats gonna need some big coattails from Clinton to take back.
Click to expand...
Well, there's gonna be Bill, Obama, Sanders, Warren and Biden also campaigning. It's like The Rock, Hulk, John Cena and Undertaker all teamed up to take down the biggest shit heel in wrestling.
 
N

nature boy

Member
HanShotFirst said:
See, Im confident with the electoral college. the thing Im not confident with is the House of Representatives. Thats gonna need some big coattails from Clinton to take back.
Click to expand...

Yeah 270 is relatively easy but swinging red states is good news for down ballots as well. House is a tough objective in one sweep though.

Want to see a Texas GE poll.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I'm inclined to agree with Y2kev. There have been victories on that scale in the past, but American politics is more clearly dichotomous these days; the number of floating voters has dramatically decreased from the Reagan era. I don't think Clinton can do better than an 8% victory. The map will be Obama's 2012 plus North Carolina, Nebraska's 2nd, and maaaybe Georgia if things go really well.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Y2Kev said:
12 points is an unprecedented landslide. You are crazy if you think she wins by 12. That's 56 to 44. That is not happening evar. Republicans have a baseline of like 45 because old fucks go vote like it's the highlight of their year.

edit: WAHHHHYYY AGAIN
Click to expand...
I tend to agree. 2008 broke me of ever becoming too optimistic on margin; that so many would vote for such a horrible ticket after such a shitty 8 years still astonishes me. I'm thinking mid-single digits, around 5%.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Crab said:
I'm inclined to agree with Y2kev. There have been victories on that scale in the past, but American politics is more clearly dichotomous these days; the number of floating voters has dramatically decreased from the Reagan era. I don't think Clinton can do better than an 8% victory. The map will be Obama's 2012 plus North Carolina, Nebraska's 2nd, and maaaybe Georgia if things go really well.
Click to expand...
I think after just 8 years of demographic changes, with the same margin of victory as Obama in 2008, Indiana (and Missouri) are now out of the picture in 2016, but Georgia and a higher margin of victory in North Carolina are entirely possible.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Crab said:
I'm inclined to agree with Y2kev. There have been victories on that scale in the past, but American politics is more clearly dichotomous these days; the number of floating voters has dramatically decreased from the Reagan era. I don't think Clinton can do better than an 8% victory. The map will be Obama's 2012 plus North Carolina, Nebraska's 2nd, and maaaybe Georgia if things go really well.
Click to expand...

You think she can win NC? I feel like I have no read on that state.
 
L

Lucky Forward

Member
Donald Trump warns Obama about campaigning for Hillary Clinton

"We have a president that doesn't know what the hell he's doing, folks," Trump said. "I hear he's going to take a lot of time, during our time, when he's supposed to be looking at trade and the military and all of these things, and he's going to campaign for Crooked Hillary."

"You know what? That's OK. That's OK," Trump said before then issuing a veiled threat to the president. "Because if he does that, we're allowed to say things about him that normally we wouldn't bring up. Remember when Bill started campaigning?"

That was a reference to Trump's willingness to attack Clinton by alleging sexual misconduct on the part of her husband, former President Clinton, in ways that go beyond the usual political back and forth.
Click to expand...

Sounds like Trump's gonna dust off the Obama secret gay muslim atheist rumors.
 
H

Holmes

Member
In 2008, North Carolina was about 7% more Republican than the country as a whole. In 2012, despite Romney's victory there, the state was about 5% more Republican than the country as a whole. It's moving quickly.

(For reference, in 2008, Virginia was about even with the rest of the country, and in 2012, it was 1% more Democratic than the rest of the country.)
 
A

ampere

Member
Trump is going to get record low levels of women voters, which could totally make the landslide possible. Of course there are some nutso women who will vote for him, like one of my grandmothers (she's pretty racist).

itschris said:
Politico Magazine: What Exactly Would It Mean to Have Trump’s Finger on the Nuclear Button?

Much more at the link.
Click to expand...

I think this is a very strong argument to vote against Trump alone, but there are a lot of people who mindlessly counter with "Clinton is a warhawk" sigh.
 
M

mo60

Member
Y2Kev said:
12 points is an unprecedented landslide. You are crazy if you think she wins by 12. That's 56 to 44. That is not happening evar. Republicans have a baseline of like 45 because old fucks go vote like it's the highlight of their year.

edit: WAHHHHYYY AGAIN
Click to expand...

This election can be different than other elections in the past 20 years or so since trump is the republician nominee. She can technically beat him by 12 points especially if a third party candidate mostly takes voters that the republican candidate would get in a usual election away from him.Anyway, I think she wins by around 10%.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
I worry this may be too optimistic but I genuinely feel like people are underestimating Trump's downside. I doubt Hillary will get 58% of the vote, but a 49-36-10 electoral college megasweep seems entirely possible to me.

Honestly, the GE is just getting started, and a historic election is possible because Trump is a historically odious and historically incompetent candidate. He has no surrogates, he has no money, he has no infrastructure, but he does have years of saying stupid shit, which were overlooked by the lazy idiots he ran against in the primary. He can't handle anything without throwing a tantrump, and his tantrumps keep costing him votes. Hillary is +3/4 right now and just getting started on party unity and on exposing his stupid shit. The media is just getting started on him as well.

Seriously, Trump is going to get bloodied every day for the next 5 months and has no way of fighting back that don't make him look even worse in the process. Just wait for the next two weeks of polls. They'll be amazing. But even they won't be Hilldawg's ceiling.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Gruco said:
I worry this may be too optimistic but I genuinely feel like people are underestimating Trump's downside. I doubt Hillary will get 58% of the vote, but a 49-36-10 electoral college megasweep seems entirely possible to me.

Honestly, the GE is just getting started, and a historic election is possible because Trump is a historically odious and historically incompetent candidate. He has no surrogates, he has no money, he has no infrastructure, but he does have years of saying stupid shit, which were overlooked by the lazy idiots he ran against in the primary. He can't handle anything without throwing a tantrump, and his tantrumps keep costing him votes. Hillary is +3/4 right now and just getting started on party unity and on exposing his stupid shit. The media is just getting started on him as well.

Seriously, Trump is going to get bloodied every day for the next 5 months and has no way of fighting back that don't make him look even worse in the process. Just wait for the next two weeks of polls. They'll be amazing. But even they won't be Hilldawg's ceiling.
Click to expand...
AND we haven't even covered the debates yet.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
I don't think Trump's floor is 45%. That applies to a candidate that has 100% of his party's support.

Trump has maybe 80% of his party so math says his floor is 80% of 45%.

Election will be 60-36 Hillary.

-Tyler
 
M

mo60

Member
pigeon said:
I don't think Trump's floor is 45%. That applies to a candidate that has 100% of his party's support.

Trump has maybe 80% of his party so math says his floor is 80% of 45%.

Election will be 60-36 Hillary.

-Tyler
Click to expand...

She won't win by 24 points. That means she gets like 420+ EV's at least which is very unlikely.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
pigeon said:
I don't think Trump's floor is 45%. That applies to a candidate that has 100% of his party's support.

Trump has maybe 80% of his party so math says his floor is 80% of 45%.

Election will be 60-36 Hillary.

-Tyler
Click to expand...
TRUMP HAS THE TWITTER! what are his likes?
 
G

gaugebozo

Member
Kristoffer said:
Trump said Romney choked like a dog in 2012. Hasn't every racist and fascist leader ever used that kind of diction?

Also, I want to add that Romney is a Mexican. He can't be a Republican because he has a conflict of interest.
Click to expand...
Wouldn't it be hilarious if Trump lost by like triple Romney's spread? What kind of choking is that?
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
If you're a liberal organization in Utah right now, try to get a meeting with Mia Love. She is so shook right now that she will agree to a meeting with anyone as an attempt to get any allies. She just had a multiple hour talk about climate change with my organization.

I mean, I'm pretty sure Mia Love is going to lose and lose fairly badly in November, but in case she doesn't, you can get a good connection with her right now.
 
I

itschris

Member
Remember that Student Organizer from Sanders' campaign that Clinton hired? The Sandernistas found her Facebook page:

aRUzXL0.png
Click to expand...

Now, I'm not alone in noticing that they tend to go after women much more harshly than men, right?
 
U

User 463088

Banned
QUEEN IS SPEAKING

Hillary Clinton ‏@HillaryClinton 2h2 hours ago

When Trump goes off his staff's script he insults anyone who challenges him. Judge for his heritage, senator for hers. Rs should disavow. -H
 
T

Trancos

Member
Bernie's campaign organising a silent protest against Warren in one of her campaign's events in MA.
Why in hell would you dot that? I mean that's fine for the last guys in S4P but this is coming from Bernie's campaign official page. The truce is broken?

EDIT: yeah, got confused with the page being hosted in the official campaign site. Sorry. This is a volunteer event. Move on.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Trancos said:
Bernie's campaign organising a silent protest against Warren in one of her campaign's events in MA.
Why in hell would you dot that? I mean that's fine for the last guys in S4P but this is coming from Bernie's campaign official page. The truce is broken?
Click to expand...

I don't think this is an official Bernie campaign event. Isn't this just people using his website to organize?
 
T

Teggy

Member
Trancos said:
Bernie's campaign organising a silent protest against Warren in one of her campaign's events in MA.
Why in hell would you dot that? I mean that's fine for the last guys in S4P but this is coming from Bernie's campaign official page. The truce is broken?
Click to expand...

It looks like anyone can create an event on that site, so I don't think that is officially sanctioned (it just gives some guys name as the host). That said, they should be approving those events and if they let this go through fuck them.

Edit: looks like there is a link at the bottom to flag the event as inappropriate.
 
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