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PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why

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Zolo

Member
Oh man, if anyone manages to get DT in to testify under oath, I hope they ask some calibration questions like "Was your crowd size smaller than President Obama's during your inauguration?"

Just to establish early that he's gonna lie.

For what it's worth, I feel that's one of the few things that could be defended as Trump believing it himself.
 

studyguy

Member
https://twitter.com/rogerjstonejr/status/873239908697223168
Roger Stone (@RogerJStoneJr)
"Introduce a little anarchy ,upset the established order and everything becomes chaos"..The Joker


DB5fEEfVwAAjnO8.jpg
 

tbm24

Member
Hearing criticism of Gillibrand saying "Fuck" a week or two after a now sitting(I believe sitting) US congressman physically assaulted a reporter is something else. I love Gillibrand.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Hearing criticism of Gillibrand saying "Fuck" a week or two after a now sitting(I believe sitting) US congressman physically assaulted a reporter is something else. I love Gillibrand.

I love Gillibrand as well but let's not pretend that using a profanity and physically assaulting someone is anywhere near the same thing. Both can be criticized for political reasons, but come on. Nobody in this thread is putting it on the same level of what Gianforte did.
 

kirblar

Member
Good piece by Catherine Rampell (you should be following her on Twitter) about what specifically is f'd up about France's labor market: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...4_story.html?tid=ss_tw&utm_term=.663637f7d0c4

For decades, France has struggled with stagnant labor markets and intractably high unemployment. The jobless rate stands at 9.6 percent, which — believe it or not — is a five-year low.

Also for decades, French politicians have tried to reform the system. Macron’s predecessor, François Hollande, suffered recordlow approval ratings, partly due to the violent strikes and chaos that erupted when he worked to reform labor laws last year.

Rather than shying away from this hot-button issue — which Macron had overseen as Hollande’s economy minister — Macron made it a centerpiece of his presidential campaign. And after this Sunday’s first-round parliamentary elections, which his brand-new political party is projected to win in a landslide, his government will likely claim a public mandate to finally fix the system.

So what exactly is wrong with the job market in France?

The problem isn’t generous health-care benefits or onerous environmental protections or the usual “job-killing” regulations that American politicians so often vilify — and that the French love.

It’s that it’s virtually impossible, or at the very least prohibitively expensive, to fire employees. Which makes hiring employees unattractive, too.

In France, firings and layoffs can generally happen under very limited circumstances, including gross negligence and “economic reasons.” Laid-off employees can then challenge their dismissals in court, where judges are seen as somewhat hostile to employers.

Judges, for example, have wide latitude in deciding what counts as a justifiable “economic reason” for a layoff. They may decide that multinational firms that are losing money in France are not allowed to pare back their French workforce if they are collectively profitable in other countries, according to Jean-Charles Simon, an economist and former manager of the country’s main employer organization, Mouvement des Entreprises de France, or MEDEF.

A layoff in such a case could be deemed unfair. Furthermore, there is no cap on the damages that judges can award for unfair dismissal, meaning employers’ potential risks are essentially limitless. The whole process can take years to resolve, too.

Unsurprisingly, employers turn whenever possible to temporary, short-term contract workers, who enjoy fewer protections. This has led to a two-tier labor market with ironclad job security for some and virtually none for the rest.

In fact, about two-thirds of job contracts signed each year are fixed-term arrangements lasting less than a month, according to Francis Kramarz, director of CREST (the Center for Research in Economics and Statistics) and professor at École Polytechnique and ENSAE. Young workers often find themselves doomed to an endless series of short-term gigs, with no opportunities for upward mobility.

In addition to job protections, other rigid policies have made France a difficult place to run a business, particularly for smaller firms.

Only about 8 percent of French workers belong to unions, but thanks to French labor law, 98 percent of workers are covered by national, industry-wide union-negotiated contracts. These can set generous and inflexible pay scales, overtime rates and severance packages, regardless of firm size, resources or whether any of its employees actually belong to a union.

Arguably this is one reason larger firms have not pushed harder for market reforms. They know how to work the system, have lawyers on staff and can absorb many of the steep costs that smaller firms cannot.
 
The last constituency has announced -- Kensington goes Labour by 20 votes for the first time in the constituency's history.

Kensington is the most affluent constituency in the entire UK, won for the first time by... Jeremy Corbyn's manifesto.

Shit's whack.
 

kirblar

Member
The last constituency has announced -- Kensington goes Labour by 20 votes for the first time in the constituency's history.

Kensington is the most affluent constituency in the entire UK, won for the first time by... Jeremy Corbyn's manifesto.

Shit's whack.
Saw a rando twitter post claiming that there was a ~20/25% block of Labour voters that weren't pro-Corbyn (as opposed to ~5% for the Tories/May) but it didn't have any links to sources so was not taking it as anything other than a curiosity. Would love to see actual hard numbers/polling.
 

Teggy

Member
Kasowitz seems like the lawyer version of Dr. Bornstein. Which makes sense, it seems like you really have to be a certain kind of person to work with Trump.
 

Paches

Member
Kasowitz seems like the lawyer version of Dr. Bornstein. Which makes sense, it seems like you really have to be a certain kind of person to work with Trump.

When top flight pros won't work with you, you mainly get people a rung below desperate to make a big name for themselves.
 
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He's referring to this story: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/11/us/politics/trump-comey-firing.html

It doesn't mention the memo at all nor does the information necessarily have to originate from the memo. It specifically says "according to two people who have heard his account of the dinner" and "Mr. Comey described details of his refusal to pledge his loyalty to Mr. Trump to several people close to him on the condition that they not discuss it publicly while he was F.B.I. director."

Trump team response:

lalala.gif
 
Final UK election results:


Con: 42.4%
Lab: 40.0%
LD: 7.4%
SNP: 3.0%
UKIP: 1.8%
Green: 1.6%
DUP: 0.9%
SF: 0.7%
PC: 0.5%
SDLP: 0.3%
UUP: 0.3%
Alliance: 0.2%

Left-leaning parties (Lab+SNP+Green+PC+SF+SDLP): 46.1%
Right-leaning parties (Con+UKIP+DUP+UUP): 45.4%
Center parties (LibDem+Alliance): 7.6%

Total votes:

Con: 13,667,213
Lab: 12,874,985
LD: 2,371,772
SNP: 977,569
UKIP: 593,852
Green: 525,371
DUP: 292,316
SF: 238,915
PC: 164,466
SLDP: 95,419
UUP: 83,280
Alliance: 64,553

Swing:

Lab: +9.5%
Con: +5.5%
DUP: +0.3%
SF: +0.2%
SDLP: -
Alliance: -
PC: -0.1%
UUP: -0.1%
LD: -0.5%
SNP: -1.7%
Green: -2.1%
UKIP: -10.8%

Seats:

Con: 318 (-13)
Lab: 262 (+30)
SNP: 35 (-21)
LD: 12 (+4)
DUP: 10 (+2)
SF: 7 (+3)
PC: 4 (+1)
Green: 1 (-)
UKIP: 0 (-1)
SDLP 0 (-3)
UUP 0 (-2)
Ind: 1 (-)
 
Had the scots voted like they have normally voted, we'd be talking prime minister Corbyn right now.

I wonder if they only voted this way because they assumed labour had no hope and the vote was pointless anyway, and maybe would have voted differently if they knew the election was going to be as close as it was
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
NBC Nightly News‏Verified account @NBCNightlyNews 30m30 minutes ago

Question: Were visa waivers discussed?

Pres. Trump: "We didn't discuss it."

Romanian Pres. Iohannis: "Yes ... I mentioned this issue."

I mean, I'd laugh but I honestly think it has to do with a degenerative brain disorder. He has to have something going on.
 

pigeon

Banned
Final UK election results:

To make a point a different way: if you thought Corbyn was unelectable and doomed to failure, this is the time where you reexamine your priors. If you found an explanation that makes this non-recurring or non-significant and means you don't have to update anything, you might consider being suspicious of how convenient that is for you.
 

kirblar

Member
To make a point a different way: if you thought Corbyn was unelectable and doomed to failure, this is the time where you reexamine your priors. If you found an explanation that makes this non-recurring and means you don't have to update anything, you might consider being suspicious of how convenient that is for you.
Perhaps the answer is that will vote for a crazy male populist if they dislike his female opponent even more?

(I'm deliberately being way too reductionist to draw the US parallel where it's a reach in order to tease out that there might be a degree of commonality)
 
Had the scots voted like they have normally voted, we'd be talking prime minister Corbyn right now.

I wonder if they only voted this way because they assumed labour had no hope and the vote was pointless anyway, and maybe would have voted differently if they knew the election was going to be as close as it was

That's part of it. Yes.
 

kirblar

Member
Seems pretty convenient to me!
I think a lot of this boils down to "what motivates people."

I would argue that (unfortunately) what appears to do it best is active negative stimuli. (Hence, why negative campaigning works) Recessions. Botched Wars. Trump's entire term in office so far.

Complacency is a hell of a drug, and its not till people are getting shanked that they pay attention.
 

tbm24

Member
I love Gillibrand as well but let's not pretend that using a profanity and physically assaulting someone is anywhere near the same thing. Both can be criticized for political reasons, but come on. Nobody in this thread is putting it on the same level of what Gianforte did.
I was referring to the media I'm listening to rather that this thread. Just felt the need to air that out. I rejecte the idea that US representatives are not allowed to say fuck, especially with all the bullshit they are allowed to get away with that directly threatens my ability to walk outside and not be villianized. More or less the origin of my greivance seeing the question of whether it's appropriate for her to use language like that (same applies to Tom Perez) when we spent the past election cycle with American citizens being shit on openly by the now president.
 

Paches

Member
Out of curiosity, what can democrats due if Trump did lie under oath? Sessions did and didnt get charged.

Have to do well in the midterms to make almost any of this count for anything. I'm just not sure how big of a deal dems should make of it during campaign season as a main point, like "vote for me to impeach Trump".
 
Out of curiosity, what can democrats due if Trump did lie under oath? Sessions did and didnt get charged.

I wonder what would happen if he lied under oath, avoided impeachment and lost the 2020 election to a dem. What would happen now that he would be a private citizen, assuming that the new president would not pardon him?
 
I wonder what would happen if he lied under oath, avoided impeachment and lost the 2020 election to a dem. What would happen now that he would be a private citizen, assuming that the new president would not pardon him?

Simple. He could be indicted just like any other private citizen.
 
Have to do well in the midterms to make almost any of this count for anything. I'm just not sure how big of a deal dems should make of it during campaign season as a main point, like "vote for me to impeach Trump".

Does it require both house and senate to convict someone of perjury?
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
DB5lpQ_XUAAzH8g.jpg:small


I love Nancy Pelosi, but I have to admit--I think the name is so tainted now (similar to what happened to Hillary Clinton) that it might be a good idea to get some new blood in there that the republicans haven't been trashing for decades.
 
Does it require both house and senate to convict someone of perjury?

No, you need a simple majority in the House to deliver articles of impeachment (basically the political equivalent of indicting) but a supermajority (67) to convict in the Senate. Presidents have been impeached but never convicted.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Also, I noticed that democrats are referring to the AHCA as "Wealthcare." Maybe I'm overthinking this, but that seems way too easy for republicans to turn around as, "We're saving you money!"
 
McSally won her seat by a healthy margin in November (57-43), but she represents an R+3 district likely to be one of the first casualties of a blue wave. Combine those numbers with Arizona's continued blueward swing, and she should be worried.
 

Tamanon

Banned
Also, I noticed that democrats are referring to the AHCA as "Wealthcare." Maybe I'm overthinking this, but that seems way too easy for republicans to turn around as, "We're saving you money!"

Nah, they really wouldn't want to embrace it like that.

I guess Favreau finally did it, he got Wealthcare started as a joke.
 
McSally won her seat by a healthy margin in November (57-43), but she represents an R+3 district likely to be one of the first casualties of a blue wave. Combine those numbers with Arizona's continued blueward swing, and she should be worried.

Also, her district voted for Hillary last year by 5 points.
 

Hindl

Member
Also, I noticed that democrats are referring to the AHCA as "Wealthcare." Maybe I'm overthinking this, but that seems way too easy for republicans to turn around as, "We're saving you money!"
I wish they could tie it better to the Republicans/Trump. Obamacare effectively tied the ACA to Obama. Problem with Trumpcare is that Trump barely knows what's in the bill and it's the congressional republicans causing this fuckery. If it blows up they can just wipe their hands of all things Trump, including this. Republicare would be more effective but that's a pretty lame name
 
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I love Nancy Pelosi, but I have to admit--I think the name is so tainted now (similar to what happened to Hillary Clinton) that it might be a good idea to get some new blood in there that the republicans haven't been trashing for decades.

Hmmm I knew her name sounded familiar. Haha, "it's being taken out on me!" Like she hasn't done anything horrible in the last few months.
Rep. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., reportedly shouted, "Let's get this f--king thing done!" in the meeting, which the news site likened to a "pep rally."
 

Gruco

Banned
Yeah, if you voted AHCA, you don't get a "woe is me" moment

Abandon Trump and fight the ACHA, lose the Trumpists. Cover for him and sell out Americans? Resistance is coming for you. The fact that these people are screwed either way and still choosing to be morally bankrupt is all anyone needs to know.

If you think they're squirming now just wait until they start losing seats.
 
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