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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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Debirudog said:
Then Comey shouldn't have written this letter to begin with.
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Agreed, IF there's nothing new to reveal before the election.
He was WAY over-cautious with respect to Congress and didn't care about its political impact.

ampere said:
Then why is the FBI commenting on the ongoing investigation related to Clinton? And why did they hold a press conference about their findings this summer? Supposed to just talk to the AG's office and not publicize things
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Because it had a relevant effect on the presidential election? A presidential candidate was being investigated by the FBI. His press conference was a mess, I agree.
 
Manmademan said:
1.) is bullshit, flat out. there are always dozens of these people using arcane methods to "predict" a presidential race. Not even worth the time to click on it.

2.) The situation is nothing like brexit. Brexit polling was tied or within the margin of error. Hillary is currently about 7 points ahead in the aggregate and has NEVER polled behind Trump. not once.

3.) It's already been discussed that ABC's tracker is very noisy, and the methodology used to produce the poll was changed in the middle of the week, so comparing the +14 to the 1 point lead this week is nonsense. No other poll is showing anywhere close to this kind of movement. it takes catastrophic news to move legitimate polls this badly- and there was nothing at all this week.
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Source? Real clear politics is showing her at +4.3 right now.
 
GoldenEye 007 said:
And Hillary already did that to boot.
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Exactly. Whenever SHE is asked that's the line she needs to take. Other than that she needs to just campaign.

Listen I'm always the one who's down for playing it professionally, but what Comey did was beyond the pale and has the potential to tilt the election even a little bit.

It always seems when Dems are found in these positions we should just hold our head down, take the beating, tow the line of not being too critical and somehow come out worse for it.

Chaffetz had no fucking problems turning this political, Comey had no issues knowing a vaguely worded letter would be used like this. Fuck it. Fight back. If Reid wants to do this that's on him.

And clearly you can't count on or trust the media to report things accurately since they want to cream themselves over "OCTOBER BOMBSHELL!!!111"
 
Zukkoyaki said:
Apparently the head of Monmouth was on MSNBC and said they're seeing little to no effect from the email stuff.
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The thing is the email stuff never really went away. If it wasn't there all along it would be different. The GOP has used every moment to bring it up.
 
GoldenEye 007 said:
What I don't get is that the Breixit polling showed things pretty close throughout. This race hasn't really been that close outside of right before both conventions.

Pundits in the UK seemed to have chosen to ignore that closeness.
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This is what happens when people don't even take basic statistics class or learn anything about the margin of error.
 
labx said:
I think USA citizens are a little bit confident about Hillary. I wish that she wins buy, the more and more things like these pop in my twitter


A history professor who has accurately predicted three decades of US presidential races is calling a Trump win

British polling experts who didn’t see Brexit coming on why the US should be prepared for a similar upset

It’s a one-point race: Trump closes in on Clinton in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll


Sorry if I'm pooping the party but I come from the Country that voted NO to end a war of +50 years. So, yes I'm worry for the world, the collapse of the dollar, nuclear deterrence, etc.
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With regards to your first link, we had multiple universities claim that they had correctly predicted every presidential election since 19XX predict Bernie would be the President. These are not scientific or rigorous. All serious polling aggregates have her at a 75+% chance of winning on the low end with most being above 90%. Her pathway to 270 lies in States that all have her with a 5+% polling advantage.

With regards to your second link, the US is entirely different than the UK demographically. We are much more diverse and the minorities in the US are overwhelmingly supporting Clinton. Also with regards to Brexit, referendums are notoriously hard to poll because it is hard to predict turnout for one off events. There is alot more science and history involved with US presidential elections.

With regard to you third link, it is a daily tracking poll. These are generally less rigorous than a poll that has a larger sample and is in the field for a few days. Most polling aggregates have the race somewhat closer than last week, but not anywhere near 1 point.

Of course anything could happen and we will keep campaigning through election day, but the bottom line is that this has been a remarkably stable race from the beginning and one in which Hillary has been the overwhelming favorite.
 
Boke1879 said:
Exactly. Whenever SHE is asked that's the line she needs to take. Other than that she needs to just campaign.

Listen I'm always the one who's down for playing it professionally, but what Comey did was beyond the pale and has the potential to tilt the election even a little bit.

It always seems when Dems are found in these positions we should just hold our head down, take the beating, tow the line of not being too critical and somehow come out worse for it.

Chaffetz had no fucking problems turning this political, Comey had no issues knowing a vaguely worded letter would be used like this. Fuck it. Fight back. If Reid wants to do this that's on him.

And clearly you can't count on or trust the media to report things accurately since they want to cream themselves over "OCTOBER BOMBSHELL!!!111"
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Yep this type of stuff to to be taking care of quickly to make sure no one else try this.This is a serious issue,that should not be talking lightly.

I dont want the next elections with reps trying to use the FBI as their plaything.
 
Bowdz said:
With regards to your first link, we had multiple universities claim that they had correctly predicted every presidential election since 19XX predict Bernie would be the President. These are not scientific or rigorous. All serious polling aggregates have her at a 75+% chance of winning on the low end with most being above 90%. Her pathway to 270 lies in States that all have her with a 5+% polling advantage.

With regards to your second link, the US is entirely different than the UK demographically. We are much more diverse and the minorities in the US are overwhelmingly supporting Clinton. Also with regards to Brexit, referendums are notoriously hard to poll because it is hard to predict turnout for one off events. There is alot more science and history involved with US presidential elections.

With regard to you third link, it is a daily tracking poll. These are generally less rigorous than a poll that has a larger sample and is in the field for a few days. Most polling aggregates have the race somewhat closer than last week, but not anywhere near 1 point.

Of course anything could happen and we will keep campaigning through election day, but the bottom line is that this has been a remarkably stable race from the beginning and one in which Hillary has been the overwhelming favorite.
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Now, this is a response, thank you so much. I really hope that Hillary wins!
 
I still cant fucking believe what that asshole Comey did. Obama should fire and shame him publicly after the election regardless of the result. He deserves it.
 
MThanded said:
The thing is the email stuff never really went away. If it wasn't there all along it would be different. The GOP has used every moment to bring it up.
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That is what I been saying. Wikileaks shot themselves in the foot releasing shit everyday.

labx said:
I think USA citizens are a little bit confident about Hillary. I wish that she wins buy, the more and more things like these pop in my twitter


A history professor who has accurately predicted three decades of US presidential races is calling a Trump win

British polling experts who didn’t see Brexit coming on why the US should be prepared for a similar upset

It’s a one-point race: Trump closes in on Clinton in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll


Sorry if I'm pooping the party but I come from the Country that voted NO to end a war of +50 years. So, yes I'm worry for the world, the collapse of the dollar, nuclear deterrence, etc.
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Brexit left me disappointed with Britian's large black and latino populations. Not to mention how the elctroal college shaked out.
 
If Trump does get Floria, it will likely be so close that the state will be called after the election is essentially over
 
MThanded said:
The thing is the email stuff never really went away. If it wasn't there all along it would be different. The GOP has used every moment to bring it up.
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I was trying to tell my brother (someone who is very anti-Hillary) that. He thinks this is something that'll bring things to the wire.

I kept trying to remind him that people like him or I, or the rest of us here, pay attention to it, but the general public hears the words Hillary, email, investigation, etc and it just becomes white noise after a while. At worst they'll go "again? I thought that was done with."

Anyway, I would love to be a fly on the wall around Comey right now to hear the chewing out he must be getting.
 
I don't think I can handle another week of this (election day itself is just a lot of tweets from Jon Ralston about turnout). I haven't had an appetite all weekend. Last night for dinner I had some bread.
 
Just hearing Obama say he is accepting Comey's resignation for 'extreme carelessness' in exercising his job would be sweet justice. Fucking partisan hack.
 
Honestly, this is why the DoJ has a policy about not commenting on ongoing investigations and not doing anything to interfere with elections. Comey, intentionally or not, inserted himself into the single largest political fight we have and made himself a political player in the game. The Democrats are well within their rights to not only make political hay of his letter but to go after him in a political manner and TBH, I'd much rather have a fight on the terrain of Dems v. Reps versus Hillary v. the law/FBI.
 
Gutek said:
We'll see. I don't believe this is gonna be smooth sailing for the Dems.
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Presidency is all but assured for Hillary. There is nothing right now that has changed that.

Early voting in FL has dem and GOP neck and neck. In previous years the GOP usually outpaces dems by a large margin. Hillary in the polls still lead in FL. Florida will be close be I say it goes to Hillary. Simply because she has a ground game and the Hispanic population turning out more than they did in 2012
 
Geg said:
If Trump does get Floria, it will likely be so close that the state will be called after the election is essentially over
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Yup. Florida wasn't called for several days after election day in 2012 and that didn't stop it from being a pretty early call for Obama (11:12pm EST).

People need to stop losing their goddamn minds.
 
metalslimer said:
I think Trump might win Florida if he had any semblance of a GOTV effort
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What you talking about? 2 of Trump's best taking folks to vote
8950680787_d3d6605d47_b.jpg

824bb495-d39c-40b4-9b77-0f7080375e6a-Liverpool20truck20fire20cu.JPG
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DontBeThatGuy said:
Watch Hillary still over-perform in comparison to the polls.
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Which is what I'm betting on.

Here what I'm thinking happens. Friday, Comey sent his letter to the Oversight committee. Saturday everyone is freaking out. Trumpers claim victory anytime they get bread crumbs. Independents already have made up their mind about the email thing. Now we find out that Comey was being a shit for brains partisan.
Then on Monday, normal Americans begin hearing about Comey shitting the bed and figure he is politicizing the issue instead of acting like an adult and a competent FBI director.
Trump continues to make an ass of himself, and continues to not grow his base or learn how to run a ground game.
Aleppo Johnson/Jill MagicWifiCrystals supporters stay home instead of voting so they can huff glue.


What does Comey drink? Whisky or scotch? I bet he is a schnapps guy. I bet he is fucking wasted right now. lmao
 
Hillary has Florida, dems run usually well behind until actual election day and that's not the case now. The amount of new voters since 2012, and the fact her GOTV people registered over 70,000 new voters in the extra week that had this month means to me that she will win by a larger margin them either time Obama did.
 
reid making this a partisan issue will fire up the dem base. instead of bedwetting as always dems can do better by being mad/fired up.
 
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