brianmcdoogle
Member
It was stylistically designed to be that way and you can't undo that, but he can diminish the effects of it.
Edit: But, seriously, he's praised his model's big fluctuations as a good thing.
PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
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It was stylistically designed to be that way and you can't undo that, but he can diminish the effects of it.
Edit: But, seriously, he's praised his model's big fluctuations as a good thing.
Interesting comparisons of Nate's model with others as the year went on
https://twitter.com/jshkatz/status/793553664724140032
https://twitter.com/jshkatz/status/793553664724140032
Here's a screenshot of that (very real) Tweet:
much cooler sig than trump. gets my vote.
cartoon_soldier
Member
WOOOO CUBS YESSSS. BUT STILL SOX ARE BETTER!
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
I've defended FiveThirtyEight quite a bit in the past, but I've reached my limit with how much his model overreacts to new polls. High skepticism months ago was more believable when there were less polls and uncertain long term variables, but it's just ridiculous now.
FiveThirtyEight is a good idea that's been implemented poorly. Serious changes need to be made otherwise it's going to be irrelevant.
FiveThirtyEight is a good idea that's been implemented poorly. Serious changes need to be made otherwise it's going to be irrelevant.
whyamihere
Banned
So looking over the Senate polls, it's pretty crazy how close almost everything is. Some of these are crap pollsters, but.
New Hampshire
Indiana
Missouri
Nevada
North Carolina
Wisconsin:
ALSO, wow. I hadn't quite realized it had gotten this bad for Toomey:
New Hampshire
Indiana
Missouri
Nevada
North Carolina
Wisconsin:
ALSO, wow. I hadn't quite realized it had gotten this bad for Toomey:
So RCP did an article about how you can't read anything into the early voting patterns. Election Project's Michael McDonald had fun with that.
In between were a couple retweets about the fact that 55% of the EV in Florida are women. I didn't realize it was so high. Wow.
In between were a couple retweets about the fact that 55% of the EV in Florida are women. I didn't realize it was so high. Wow.
I don't think 538 manipulates the numbers for clicks like everyone else. But I would be curious why his model for Florida tends to slant in favor of Trump. Even when Clinton wins a poll by 1 or 2 points, the adjusted figure often comes up as Trump+1 or Trump+2.
whyamihere
Banned
If early voting patterns don't matter, why do campaigns care so much about them?
RCP continues to be trash
I'm willing to bet Warren is paying for it secretly, in addition to his rides to the polls thing
SlickShoesRUCrazy
Member
People are idiots, it is that simple.
Aaron Strife
Banned
So what, does he think Clinton is going to lose? Does he want to go on record with that?there was also this
His model is going to close to a 51-49 difference, he'll concern tweet about everything being too close to call while every other model/analyst has it at 90+%, and then look like a total fucking tool when it's an early night for Clinton. God, what a fucking mess.
Nate is a mess. Nate is a waste. Nate is a big fat mess.
shinra-bansho
Member
It makes sense when you consider nonpartisan response bias leading to systemic polling error.
brianmcdoogle
Member
He'll have an article the next day saying "wow, this race was really close and it was a very unstable election (lol) but we ultimately got it right!" and then people will pretend that it was a close and volatile election and nothing will be learned. See, "no one predicted Trump!" because 538 screwed the pooch in the primary.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I mean it's not even about what combination of states gets her to 270 or whatever, it's just blatantly obvious this is going to be an easy Clinton win even if it's not a particularly huge one. Big leads in WI/MI/NH/PA/CO/VA already seals the deal. If one of those falters then she's doing great in NV/FL/NC. I still think she takes IA/AZ/OH but if she doesn't then who cares? They'll likely be too close to call until well after she's crossed 270. Trying to sit here and play concern troll devil's advocate when he's ostensibly a credible statician is only going to hurt his credibility further after blowing the primary so badly (and also in defiance of all available data and basic perception).
He doesn't think she's gonna lose. He just has let his feud with Wang go a little too far (he makes a snide comment on just about every podcast episode he does lately) and he's deathly afraid of looking dumb, so he's hedging his bets by trying to cover as many bases as possible.
Either way, yeah, a total mess.
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
Is Nate being dumb again?
SlickShoesRUCrazy
Member
I'm reading about Hitler's rise to power. It's amazing how similar trumps campaign strategies are to that of Hitler's.
"For Hitler, the master speech maker, the long awaited opportunity to let loose his talents on the German people had arrived. He would find in this downtrodden people, an audience very willing to listen. In his speeches, Hitler offered the Germans what they needed most, encouragement. He gave them heaps of vague promises while avoiding the details. He used simple catchphrases, repeated over and over."
"Hitler offered something to everyone: work to the unemployed; prosperity to failed business people; profits to industry; expansion to the Army; social harmony and an end of class distinctions to idealistic young students; and restoration of German glory to those in despair. He promised to bring order amid chaos; a feeling of unity to all and the chance to belong. He would make Germany strong again; end payment of war reparations to the Allies; tear up the treaty of Versailles; stamp out corruption; keep down Marxism; and deal harshly with the Jews."
"For Hitler, the master speech maker, the long awaited opportunity to let loose his talents on the German people had arrived. He would find in this downtrodden people, an audience very willing to listen. In his speeches, Hitler offered the Germans what they needed most, encouragement. He gave them heaps of vague promises while avoiding the details. He used simple catchphrases, repeated over and over."
"Hitler offered something to everyone: work to the unemployed; prosperity to failed business people; profits to industry; expansion to the Army; social harmony and an end of class distinctions to idealistic young students; and restoration of German glory to those in despair. He promised to bring order amid chaos; a feeling of unity to all and the chance to belong. He would make Germany strong again; end payment of war reparations to the Allies; tear up the treaty of Versailles; stamp out corruption; keep down Marxism; and deal harshly with the Jews."
Be careful. Two more quotes and we summon BeetleKev!
Basically Nate has been pushing the notion lately that "Well, what if all polls are off and she's actually not winning!" for various stastically dubious and wholly unnecessary/misleading reasons.
Nate Copper really doesn't deserve his crediblity so much when he fucked up time and time again. Going all stupid just because you fucked up on your predictions doesn't mean you can spout garbage like CUBS -> TRUMP WIN. Wish people would just stop looking at the 538 poll. That includes my economic professor.
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
It'a shocking that he does that now.
shinra-bansho
Member
Calling him Nate is confusing as that is godcohn's name. You should refer to him by his title. Trash. Or in full TrashNate Pantone 448C.
What is the equivalent for uncoated paper?
SolidSnakeUS
Member
So looking over the Senate polls, it's pretty crazy how close almost everything is. Some of these are crap pollsters, but.
ALSO, wow. I hadn't quite realized it had gotten this bad for Toomey:
As someone from PA voting for McGinty, this is some fucking amazing news. Can't wait for him to crash and burn (Toomey)
.Also, I'm still annoyed as fuck that voting day is not either a national holiday or pushed back to a fucking Saturday.
What if he doesn't deserve a title, though? He's just Nate. Some dude who used to play online poker and now runs a site that still spends too much time using gamblers as his peers rather than other statisticians.
I actually don't hate Nate. He's being a goober this year and slowly embracing his heel turn. It's kind of funny to watch. Hopefully Harry betrays him and goes for the title solo or something.
I probably shouldn't mix political fan fiction with wrestling, should I? Might awaken some PoliGAF posts nobody really needs to see.
I actually don't hate Nate. He's being a goober this year and slowly embracing his heel turn. It's kind of funny to watch. Hopefully Harry betrays him and goes for the title solo or something.
I probably shouldn't mix political fan fiction with wrestling, should I? Might awaken some PoliGAF posts nobody really needs to see.
But it took me six months to come up with that joke. :/
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Tracker update.
Is this were they up the daily polled for the last few days to get accurate results then claim they were always correct?
Wait did you know this was the "worlds ugliest color" or was that number random? lolll
http://www.housebeautiful.com/room-decorating/colors/news/a6294/ugliest-color-in-the-world/
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
TRENDZ going to Hillary now.
Tracker update.
There must be a mistake, because the last data point corresponds to 48% but is labeled 47%.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I think it's a pretty crappy graph in general.
By the way, the update on the site doesn't go live until the morning but if you just change the date in the image URL the night before you will get a sneak peek. You can try it with November 1st and October 31 and see those updates.
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
Literally the only thing comeygate has done has made trump into a focused campaigner for 5 days.
Looking at early voting Republicans dont seem all that fire up.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Here's the IBD tracker update.
Hold y'all's horses guys
Clinton indictment incoming!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...ctment_likely_in_clinton_foundation_case.html
Does this shitshow ever end?
Clinton indictment incoming!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/vi...ctment_likely_in_clinton_foundation_case.html
Does this shitshow ever end?
shinra-bansho
Member
It's probably just nonpartisan response bias leading to systemic polling error.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I'm sure Fox and Baier are absolutely loving you propagating their poorly sourced bullshit.
titiklabingapat
Member
When are they doing the Trump Foundation one? Hillary should really purge the FBI after she wins. What they are doing is a shit show.
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