It could happen. It's a special election and who knows who the candidate will be. If it's a 50/50 senate, the GOP, Koch Bros et al will pour their sweat and blood into the race as well knowing the Senate majority is determined by who has the seat. It will be nuts.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
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D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
ukpolitics right now guys
i cant
send help
i cant
send help
A Link to the Past
Banned
Ah, okay. I do hope then that we get five seats.
A Serious Man
Member
Cubs and Brexit eating a news cycle is good for us I think.
Isn't Brexit dead now? That's great news
newshinycd
Member
Good morning fellow bed wetters. I'm going to Costco later today. How many boxes of Pampers do I need for this weekend?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Not dead, per se, more heavily maimed. Good (if somewhat expected) result and has the added bonus that it might take up a US news cycle? as it is reasonably important global news; and that's probably good for Clinton.
I like the UK, but it will probably put on the ticker right below video of the cubs winning. No offense. Just bad timing
Freedom Caucus rep on CNN says they had no real talk about replacing leadership in the House in their top secret meeting. Also says NC is mad about the latest email stuff. This is coming from Rep Meadows who probably went to every ultra conservative part of the state. Oh and he said the judge ruling on voter discrimination was basically bs and that voting is a "privilege". No, fool. Driving is a privilege. Voting is a RIGHT. You just WISH it was a privilege.
Fuck the Freedom Caucus.
Fuck the Freedom Caucus.
After all, Trump is Mr. Brexit. Just call him that, he says. And Brexit is on the verge of dying. It's poetry.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Why would the news cover important foreign political matters when there are EMAILS to talk about
ha! if by news cycle you mean 30 seconds and in between local #gunfails
I've said it before. She is very good at her job. She constantly defends bullshit she herself doesn't believe.
Aaron Strife
Banned
If Ryan can't get the votes he needs from the GOP caucus alone, he and the Democrats should broker a coalition-esque deal to either put a moderate R/D in power or keep Ryan but with strings attached. Guaranteed floor votes on certain bills (anything that would make it out of the Senate for example, such as immigration reform), no warrantless investigations etc.
Why? It would seem like y'all got a second chance at life. You should be happy!
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Obviously Cubs will do better because sports is more important than possibly the most important geopolitical development of the post Cold War era, as is clear to any reasonable person, but Cubs and the ruling together is pretty reasonable cover. Every little helps!
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Great news! Wifi is not getting 4! But also this time in 2012 obama and Romney are tied. I think h+5 is the final result. Locking in vote now, Regis.
Florida math
At latest update 4.9m of the 12.9m voters have voted early, a further 1m mail in ballots yet to be returned.
By party ID of those who've voted - R's have a 12k party ID lead.
On my math Dems lead overall 49.3% to 47.9% assuming 86% D voters and 55% independents/other vote Queen.
Lead of around 70k. 2012 early vote was a deficit of about 100K iirc
At latest update 4.9m of the 12.9m voters have voted early, a further 1m mail in ballots yet to be returned.
By party ID of those who've voted - R's have a 12k party ID lead.
On my math Dems lead overall 49.3% to 47.9% assuming 86% D voters and 55% independents/other vote Queen.
Lead of around 70k. 2012 early vote was a deficit of about 100K iirc
Ryan is too scared of those GOP that think talking talking to a democrat is treason
Yeah anything to run out the clock. But then again I stopped watching cable news except for Rachel Maddow. Shit is stressful
Conducted Friday to Tuesday. It's decent if you think her numbers were suppressed due to Comey's letter. I think she'll rebound a couple of points by election day and national polls due for release Monday will show it.
sazzy
Member
I'm betting on H+7.
shinra-bansho
Member
White men, why you suck? And not in a good way.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Why the fuck aren't Dems returning their ballots.
Aaron Strife
Banned
If Ryan wouldn't do it and still got voted out, I think there are some GOPers who might still go along with if. Iirc Charlie Dent and Peter King said back in 2015 they'd be open to a bipartisan speaker.
I mean shit do you remember the utter chaos that broke out in the GOP caucus between McCarthy and Ryan? Congressmen hiding in closets and crying and shit. The freedom caucus mutinying in spite of Ryan giving them basically everything they want might be the straw that breaks the camel's back.
I mean shit do you remember the utter chaos that broke out in the GOP caucus between McCarthy and Ryan? Congressmen hiding in closets and crying and shit. The freedom caucus mutinying in spite of Ryan giving them basically everything they want might be the straw that breaks the camel's back.
i'm going with this as well.
clinton - 50
trump - 43
johnson - 5
stein - 1
other - 1
essentially - if there are at least 130m votes, i don't see how hillary gets considerably fewer than obama did in 2012.
i also think i'm being fairly generous to trump and to a lesser extent, johnson.
No and I have no idea how a stein voter makes it through an LV screen unless they are a diehard crazy person who has voted third party for fifty years.
Agree with this. PoliGAF aggregator never misses.
I'll go you one better (in the polling equivalent of Liar's Dice), and say Hillary +8. I've got a good feeling about on-the-day voting... I think the blanket attack ads her campaign and PACs are putting down against Trump will work in her favour on-the-day.
nature boy
Member
Color me skeptical, but it sounds like a formality than anything else
"Oh yes Madame, please destroy the country, no problem. Cheerio"
P.S.: PHANTOM SWINGS (re CBS/NYT poll)
newshinycd
Member
Lol no.
Johnson got 0.99% and Stein got 0.39% back in 2012.
I would put money down that neither get above 1% this time either.
nature boy
Member
Well this is probably the last CBS/NYTimes poll ever, so enjoy it
Ehhh not with you on this one. As embarrassing as Johnson's been, he'll get over 1%.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
go home cnn you're drunk
Wait a second--that's the exact map I posted in here last night. CNN is stealing my ideas!
I need to see a quality NH poll before I start freaking out, though. That one from overnight wasn't great.
T
Transhuman
Unconfirmed Member
Is it really that close or is CNN chicken little?
That was his "worst case" map for Clinton
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