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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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N

NeoXChaos

Member
whyamihere said:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/cr...ll-do-better-in-ohio-than-he-does-nationally/

Really good deep dive into the demographics of Ohio this year by the always-great Kyle Kondik.
Click to expand...

I read it. Really nerdy but good stuff.

There are two counties that provide an interesting contrast in this election, though, and neither of them is a bellwether county — that is, both typically vote far from the state and national average, although that may be changing in this election. These are Trumbull and Delaware counties. The former is located in the state’s Mahoning Valley in Northeast Ohio along the Pennsylvania border (it is part of the Youngstown media market), while the latter is just north of Franklin County (Columbus). I provided commentary on both of these counties to PBS NewsHour as part of two reports it produced in Ohio a couple of weeks ago.

In some ways, the counties are exact opposites. Mitt Romney won Delaware by 23 points in 2012, while Barack Obama won Trumbull by the exact same margin. Trumbull County has voted significantly more Democratic than the state ever since 1936, when Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal majority emerged in Ohio’s industrial heartland. Delaware has voted significantly more Republican than the state for about as long as Trumbull — it’s part of a large number of Ohio counties that reacted to the New Deal by becoming dramatically more Republican — and it hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Woodrow Wilson in 1916 (it has the longest streak of voting Republican of any county in the state).

The counties also have very similarly-sized populations and cast roughly the same number of votes (about 100,000 apiece in 2012). They are also both not very diverse – both counties are about 90% white.

But they are heading in opposite directions: Delaware’s population grew 75% from 2000 to 2015 — making it by far the fastest-growing county in Ohio — while Trumbull’s shrunk by about 9.5% in the same time period, making it one of the state’s fastest-declining counties. Delaware also has the state’s highest median income and is by far the state’s most-educated county (a shade over half of the county’s residents over the age of 25 has a bachelor’s degree — no other Ohio county is even over 40%). Trumbull has a below-average median income and its percentage of residents with a bachelor’s degree is just a third of Delaware’s.

Oh, and then there’s this: Delaware County was Donald Trump’s worst county in the Republican primary, while Trumbull was Trump’s second-best. Trumbull is a declining, post-industrial county, part of a region that has been struggling economically since the fall of heavy manufacturing across the Rust Belt in the late 1970s. That’s not to say that the area is devoid of employment — one major employer is General Motors, which builds the Chevrolet Cruze at a massive plant alongside the Ohio Turnpike in Trumbull County’s Lordstown — but the slogan “Make America Great Again,” and Trump’s rough-around-the-edges blue collar appeal, might be a good fit for the area. Or at least a better fit than Mitt Romney, easily caricatured as an out-of-touch plutocrat. Paul Sracic, a professor at Youngstown State University, argues that Trump has the potential to do well with some typical Democratic voters in this area because “his secret weapon with these voters is that they know he is not really a Republican.” It may have sounded tacky, but Clinton’s description of Trump’s economics at the first debate as “trumped-up trickle down” was probably a signal to some of these voters that Trump is not that different than a normal Republican. We’ll see if it works and if she keeps at it in the stretch run of the campaign.
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--

The overall point here is that it’s easy to imagine there being some big swings from 2012 in different parts of Ohio, but it may be that those swings largely cancel themselves out, giving Clinton a path to win the state despite Trump’s seeming advantages.
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A

aspiegamer

Member
Anyone want to join the #BigLeague #BiglyTruth Team? You too can help spread propaganda on twitter during the debates using official talking points sent to you by the Trump campaign direct to your phone!

If CTR ever comes up again, just direct people to this.
 
sazzy

sazzy

Member
Here's a prediction about the town hall debate:

At least 1 person in the audience who asks a question will be one of the people Donald has not paid for their goods/services.

edit-

And they'll ask Donald about his failure to pay them.
 
D

DrForester

Kills Photobucket
We need some better polls in Colorado...

I've seen Trump's "Why isn't she 50 points ahead" commercial a half dozen times tonight. I want him to abandon the state.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
So, is LeBron going to be at the Hilldawg rally tomorrow? Seems like a pretty big coincidence to have Hillary change her scheduled appearance with Bernie in Iowa to go to Akron the day after King James endorses her.
 
R

Revolver

Member
DrForester said:
We need some better polls in Colorado...

I've seen Trump's "Why isn't she 50 points ahead" commercial a half dozen times tonight. I want him to abandon the state.
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I've seen it during football today and tonight's game. I guess he's finally buying national ad time? I think those are the first commercials of his I've seen on TV.
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
"Well, everybody does," Giuliani said. "And I'm a Roman Catholic, and I confess those things to my priest. But I've never ever attacked someone who's been the victim ... of sexual abuse. Not only that, I put people in jail who've been the victim of sexual abuse."
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Uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...
 
H

Holmes

Member
NeoXChaos said:
I read it. Really nerdy but good stuff.



--
Click to expand...
This is pretty much what a lot of people are thinking. In states like Ohio, losses with white non-college educated working class are cancelled out with gains among white college educated voters. In states like PA, CO and VA, there are more gains among college educated whites than non-college educated whites and in a state like IA, it's the reverse.
 
sazzy

sazzy

Member
I just realized why all these deranged theories are coming up all over the place all of a sudden from Roger Stone, Wikileaks, Donald's pepes, etc.

I watched this YouTube clip the other day going on and on about how the Jewish year 5777 is supposed to be some sort of a be-all-end-all deal, when some prophecies are supposed to come true, and, in a nutshell, lead a to a Donald Presidency.

The new Jewish year starts on 3rd October.

I swear, conspiracy theories about the world ending in 2012 made a lot more sense than this.

This is all a result of the 4chan/reddit/alt right media echo chamber. Which is to say, its bullshit.
 
V

Veelk

Banned
I have a question: why is wikileaks the only hacking insitute that is fucking with the US election?

Even if Wikileaks doesn't want to leak Trump's tax returns, why doesn't some other hacker group do it?
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Veelk said:
I have a question: why is wikileaks the only hacking insitute that is fucking with the US election?

Even if Wikileaks doesn't want to leak Trump's tax returns, why doesn't some other hacker group do it?
Click to expand...

Wikileaks aren't hackers, they just publish leaked shit. These days they're basically a Russian propaganda outfit though.
 
V

Veelk

Banned
B-Dubs said:
Wikileaks aren't hackers, they just publish leaked shit. These days they're basically a Russian propaganda outfit though.
Click to expand...

Really? Leaked by a particular person, or just in general?

And it still poses the question, why are there not other groups like them?
 
T

Toxi

Banned
Veelk said:
Really? Leaked by a particular person, or just in general?

And it still poses the question, why are there not other groups like them?
Click to expand...
Because the only people with the resources and motive to steal this info are state-sponsored Russian hackers, and Russia supports Trump.
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
it's interesting obama thinks the GOP went crazy the moment Sarah Palin became a VP candidate. that entire interview is great. i recommend everyone read it. reposting for this page: http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/10/barack-obama-on-5-days-that-shaped-his-presidency.html

this excerpt is particularly nuts:
It’s been documented that Republicans held meetings before your inauguration in which they decided on this strategy. When did you find out that they had had these meetings?


Well, I didn’t find out about those until McConnell made that statement, and then some stories trickled in about some dinners with Gingrich and others, but as I said before, by that time, their strategy was apparent. There are two other elements that I think contributed to the Republican approach: The first was that even where their leadership wanted to cooperate, the tenor of the Republican base had shifted in a way that made it very difficult for them to cooperate without paying a price internally. Probably the best signifier of that — and I remember this vividly — was when Chicago had the bid for the 2016 Olympics. A very effective committee had flown to Copenhagen to make their presentation, and Michelle had gone with them, and I got a call, I think before the thing had ended but on fairly short notice, that everybody thought that if I flew out there we had a good chance of getting it and it might be worth essentially just taking a one-day trip. So we fly out there. Subsequently, I think we’ve learned that IOC’s decisions are similar to FIFA’s decisions: a little bit cooked. We didn’t even make the first cut, despite the fact that, by all the objective metrics, the American bid was the best. On the flight back, we already know that we haven’t got it, and when I land it turns out that there was big cheering by Rush Limbaugh and various Republican factions that America had lost the Olympic bid. It was really strange, but at that point, Limbaugh had been much clearer about wanting to see me fail and had, I think, communicated that very clearly to his listeners. Fox News’ coverage had already started to drift in that direction, and what you realized during the course of the first six, eight, ten months of the administration was that the attitudes, the moods that I think Sarah Palin had captured during the election increasingly were representative of the Republican activist base, its core. It might not have been representative of Republicans across the country, but it meant that John Boehner or Mitch McConnell had to worry about that mood inside their party that felt that, No, we shouldn’t cooperate with Obama, we shouldn’t cooperate with Democrats; that it represents compromise, weakness, and that the broader character of America is at stake, regardless of whatever policy arguments might be made. As a consequence, there were times that I would meet with Mitch McConnell and he would say to me very bluntly, “Look, I’m doing you a favor if I do any deal with you, so it should be entirely on my terms because it hurts me just being seen photographed with you.” During the health-care debate, you know, there was a point in time where, after having had multiple negotiations with [Iowa senator Chuck] Grassley, who was the ranking member alongside my current Chinese ambassador, [Max] Baucus, in exasperation I finally just said to Grassley, “Is there any form of health-care reform that you can support?” and he shrugged and looked a little sheepish and said, “Probably not.”
Click to expand...
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Veelk said:
Really? Leaked by a particular person, or just in general?

And it still poses the question, why are there not other groups like them?
Click to expand...

Let me put it this way (to answer your second question): if you knew the multinational company you were working at was breaking the law, putting millions in danger and had documents proving it, who would you go to? The NYTimes or wikileaks? Organizations like wikileaks aren't widespread because they generally aren't needed, most major newspapers are willing to, and have done, the same job over the years and done it far better than wikileaks has or will ever do.
 
W

watershed

Banned
P

Paskil

Member
brGV7XC.png
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.
 
P

Phased

Member
watershed said:
So sad. Obama could have been even more successful if the Republican party didn't decide to become even more terrible over night.
Click to expand...

He rightfully calls out that they are paying for this attitude in Presidential Elections though. With the way the countries demographics are going it may not even be possible for them to win a National popular vote any more (We'll have to see after this election)

On the one hand you feel bad for them because even the level headed Republicans (if they exist) can't really do anything because they're stuck between a rock and an extremist. On the other hand you realize they did this entirely to themselves by courting these sorts of people and actively pushing minorities out of the party.

I think a million people have said this by now, but they need to do some serious soul searching after this election. I'm not sure how they pivot and start courting minority votes without pissing off their base though.
 
P

Pixieking

Banned
Phased said:
He rightfully calls out that they are paying for this attitude in Presidential Elections though. With the way the countries demographics are going it may not even be possible for them to win a National popular vote any more (We'll have to see after this election)

On the one hand you feel bad for them because even the level headed Republicans (if they exist) can't really do anything because they're stuck between a rock and an extremist. On the other hand you realize they did this entirely to themselves by courting these sorts of people and actively pushing minorities out of the party.

I think a million people have said this by now, but they need to do some serious soul searching after this election. I'm not sure how they pivot and start courting minority votes without pissing off their base though.
Click to expand...

It's impossible to do without a drastic rethink of who they want to appeal to, I think. They had the chance to pivot after the 2012 election, with the research paper that suggested actually being less obstructive, less woman-hating, and less White-Power. That got tossed aside when Trump definitively won the Republican Primary, actively courting the misogynists and neo-Nazi types.

Now, after Trump loses, they can either become the Party of Trump (and say good-bye to being in power for a long-time), or they actively force the extremist side out (perhaps by calling out the Tea-Party end of the party to become a legitimate third-party). The Republican party becomes an actual moderate/centre-right party, losing the extremist stance (and thus, their vote). But, even if they do that, they still have to rethink vast swathes of their policies - their anti-abortion stance, for instance, will always lose them a large majority, and they won't be able to win the African American/Hispanic/Asian demographics quickly enough to counter those lost votes. Because so many Republicans have actually toed-the-line behind Trump, even if they don't become the Party of Trump, the perception will be that they secretly are, and they'll have to do a lot to counter it.

I'm not sure if Hillary could win 2020, but the Democrats are almost-certain to, because as it stands the Republicans will be either clueless racists and woman-haters, or will be made to look like that by the Dems campaign.

More on topic...

Top Trump adviser Giuliani: "Don’t you think a man who has this kind of economic genius is a lot better for the United States than a woman?"
Click to expand...

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/782769393419685888

Someone just... Urghhhh. Words fail me.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Just so we're clear, nobody of importance has actually announced anything yet. Roger Stone, a notorious bullshitter, tweeted something about the same day that Trump's story broke and you all took the bait.

Luckily, in this case the media is somehow wiser than people on the internet and won't divert time away from the tax story until something else of value is actually released.
 
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