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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
- Thread starter eBay Huckster
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Doesn't NM have a lot of hispanic voters? So Bannon and trump's campaign are wasting there time to go after that state.
Edit: Over 40% of the state's voters are Hispanic.Trump is going to get slaughtered in the state so good luck at trying to win that state trump.
maquiladora
Member
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EatinOlives
Member
Fivethirtyeight continues to show a tightening of their forecast despite the fact that no polls have reflected anything from the FBI shitshow. I'm still baffled as to why their forecast almost always gravitates toward a tight election when nothing happens. It doesn't make any sense to me.
A very good friend of mine lives in New Mexico, and is hispanic, so I asked her how things were there.
Her parents, very non-political sorts, are absolutely enraged at Trump, and the same is true throughout most her family. Of course, this is a small sample size, but yeah, what little I've heard, haha good luck there.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
This is maybe a little late, but the bolded simply isn't true. Yes, Hillary is polling ahead and will win (and the Senate will probably go blue as well). But those are future holdings; right now, how can anyone look at this country and argue that the Dems are doing well? Most state legislatures are red, governor's mansions are red, the House is gone, the Senate is currently red, and the SC is deadlocked.
Sure, we'll hopefully fix this, but we damn sure aren't going to if we play a prevent defense in an infinite game of football while we're down 3 scores. To say it another way, if I could choose which position we were in over the last few years, I'd switch with the GOP in a fucking heartbeat. Dems are too focused on the White House, and it's because it's the position that requires the least effort on offense. Demographics and the EC do most of the work for the Dems, but you've actually got to fight if you want the rest of it.
Well, their model is designed to be reactive, but polls have actually tightened (at least national polls) since last week. She's about where Obama was in 2012...a little higher even. He was around 75% to win a week out. If polls stay where they are a day before the election, you'd expect 90% for her to win.
People need to stop going to 538 if it bugs them! Nate has some really bad articles out today though.
Abinash117
Member
Isn't the voting machines not connected to the internet?
The amount of effort that is being put forth to help Hillary lose, is there is any precedent to this? It didnt looked this bad in 2012.
They shouldn't be, at least. Not sure about other machines in other states but the ones in my state aren't.
Though I think the concern is more causing confusion for people looking up where polling places are and the like.
He's saying people won't know how to get to their polling place. Polling places are usually pretty local though, but I don't know what it's like out in the country. Would be worse for Rs I think?
My mom called me up a little while ago. She was genuinely worried about the election because one of her friends called her up and was worried because "a poll showed Hillary only up 1 point on Trump."
Thanks, bedwetters, for making me have to explain polling aggregates and the specific details of ABC's tracking poll to my mother.
Thanks, bedwetters, for making me have to explain polling aggregates and the specific details of ABC's tracking poll to my mother.
Saw my first Trump in my neighborhood. Ugh.
I mean, I'm not far distant from rural Washington, so it's not like I didn't know Trump has a significant support base in the area, but still. Ugh.
Now that I think about it, I see a bunch of signs for legislative and state level elections, but prior to this the only presidential one I can recall was for Johnson.
I mean, I'm not far distant from rural Washington, so it's not like I didn't know Trump has a significant support base in the area, but still. Ugh.
Now that I think about it, I see a bunch of signs for legislative and state level elections, but prior to this the only presidential one I can recall was for Johnson.
EatinOlives
Member
I know but I can't stop ;_;
I still maintain they're the most reliable statisticians in the business (which is why I keep coming back to them) but they occasionally do things that just make me scratch my head.
which is why reid is going after him. he can accuse comey of being partisan and purposely withholding evidence against trump and comey can't really come out and dispute him.
Weren't the polls significantly closer in 2012 though? Why would there be the same percentage to win then?
Finale Fireworker
Member
I always just assumed everyone voted at the nearest Junior High School.
I'm from Puyallup and it's very Republican area
Their model has done multiple things this cycle that have made the entire polling/data industry scratch their heads, not just observers like us.
Just tell them to get out and vote.
Also my polling place is located right on my voter registration card. It is the same elsewhere?
Abinash117
Member
Especially for a one without a organization for ground campaigning. Campaigns usually tell the voting places, right? I think it should be mostly fine. Worse comes to worse that voting would be extended.
That's how mine is here in Missouri
Mine is as well I assume but early voting was someplace else that I had to look up.
As Trash Nate has said many times, closer but more stable. He insists polls have been very volatile. Maybe more accurately he insists that there's a higher number of undecideds/third party votes in the results this year.
Like...if you get 10 polls and Hillary is:
+1
+1
+1
+2
+1
+1
0
-1
+1
+1
And she's at 48%, you'd feel comfortable saying there's a really good chance the result is +1.
But if the result is:
+1
+5
+3
-2
-1
+2
-4
+6
-2
-2
and she's at 44%, there's a lot of potential variation.
I think the truth is somewhere in the middle probably. Polls are relatively consistent in the states that matter with volatility at the national level that is not really reflected in state polling.
Nate's poll of Florida today though threw me off.
Don't be ridiculous. I vote at an elementary school.
balladofwindfishes
Member
My polling location is at some church
Mine's at the community center down the street, though I worked a referendum vote last year that used the church around the corner from it. What was strange for that one was I commented on how we were in the church this time and the other poll workers all looked at me like I grew another head or something, told me how "voting's always held here."
Yet every other time I've voted outside that referendum, its at the community center. Very strange.
same here. it's always nice and empty so i'm in and out really fast. lots of old people though. they were surprised when i showed up to vote for my local city election since i'm assuming only old folks show up for those.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Last two elections were church and library for me. Apparently in my neighborhood now its at like a beachhouse owned by the city, but I voted early so it doesn't matter
Some dude brought a confederate flag to the Anthrocon parade last year. Cray is everywhere, Trump merely amalgamated it.
Spiritreaver
Member
My polling place is a nursing home, lol.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Creepy abandoned school for mine, though they tore it down a couple of years ago. Not sure where they moved to.
Here are the most reliable statisticians in the business: http://election.princeton.edu/
None of the 538 punditry. Just math
If Trump is in MI/WI/NM, then he's not in PA/FL/NC, which is good for us. Wonder what his internals say about FL.
People shouldn't idolize people who tell them what they want. Wang ended up with major egg on his face in 2014.
People shouldn't idolize people who tell them what they want. Wang ended up with major egg on his face in 2014.
GoldenEye 007
Member
In Law & Order spirit, my early vote location was at a courthouse.
Basileus777
Member
I'd rather Trump be in states with no competitive Senate races like MI/WI/NM.
Since he doesn't have anyone else except for Pence to campaign for him, he HAS to at least attempt some blue states. It's legit impossible for him to win without flipping one of those.
And yes, it means less time for him in the states he 100% MUST win.
Wafflecakes
Member
All this talk just made me realize that I have no idea where my polling station is...
I get that, I'm fine. But two things: his internals either say FL/NC/NV are hopeless or they say he's pretty far ahead. Otherwise you wouldn't waste the final week outside of states you need and actually have a shot in.
Am I off?
Basileus777
Member
In a rational campaign that might follow. I'm not sure that applies to Trump and Bannon.
Not off, it's just that he needs those AND he needs one more. Hence why he's visiting some blue states. There legitimately isn't a path without one.
Also let's not forget this dude has recently campaigned in places like New Jersey and Maine. There isn't really a method to their madness.
nature boy
Member
As I said he doesn't have a choice, rallies in the last week won't make a difference
Mine too. It's depressing.
JesseEwiak
Member
Eh, Puyallup is swingy. Pierce County went 54-43 for Obama in 2012, 59-40 for Cantwell, 51-48 for McKenna, and was basically 50-50 on gay marriage.
As someone in Seattle, Puyallup has seemed blue collar swingish, which means that Trump might possibly the county as a whole narrowly
It's really going to help that this week is going to be killer at work. I'm slammed and will be busy all day until the weekend. Still. :eek
nature boy
Member
Or he needs more states to cross 270 so it doesn't really matter the internals (like he actually knows the internals)
It would be nice if people didnt have to qualify that they dont want useless, overdone sarcasm.
whyamihere
Banned
Another day of Dems having a win in Washoe (Reno). Again, it is very bad for the GOP if they can't seriously eat into that margin a bit.
Wafflecakes
Member
Is there a good place that has all the early voting stuff compiled together?
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