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[RustyNails]

Why did the mods lock the Tim Kaine mistress thread so fast? What are they hiding?!

Goddamn re-listening to that audio forgot how UNHINGED BATSHIT Mel Gibson was...damn.

 

[User 463088]

It could be our reality; see Schrodinger's cat.

Also, what does Silver mean by this?

Let me translate;

Visit 538 as much as you can, as often as you can. Thank you.

 

[Retro]

These maps in the latest 538 update scare the hell out of me.

As long as Philadelphia is in Pennsylvania there is no way the state will go red, at least not any time soon.

 

[Basileus777]

It could be our reality; see Schrodinger's cat.

Also, what does Silver mean by this?

I think he means "my god, what if all the polls are wrong."

 

[Zukkoyaki]

It could be our reality; see Schrodinger's cat.

Also, what does Silver mean by this?

He's driving website traffic by throwing out extremely implausible electoral map scenarios.

 

[Toparaman]

LOL at Trump's latest "retweet". (Be sure to read this as well.)

By the way, I think she fucked up a bit on filling in the arrow. Pretty sure you're only supposed to draw a thin line. At least that's what my county's ballot instructions say.

 

[GoldenEye 007]

It could be our reality; see Schrodinger's cat.

Also, what does Silver mean by this?

did someone just watch a rerun of Big Bang Theory

 

[BiggNife]

Nate has been trying to push the argument that the race is right and trump could win since July. Don't read 538's punditry, just look at their models.

 

[Dierce]

My biggest fear is that in a near future, assuming orange turd doesn't win, people will cling to this idea that the world is completely broken and that something drastic must be done.

Words reminiscent to what orange turd has said but out of someone who is actually intelligent and articulate. How do we stop that? It is clear that there is a populist message that can attract both liberals and alt-right conservatives and that message resonates on the same basis.

That message being an anti-globalist crusade. It both applies to liberals who see it as some monster that is draining economic prosperity and for the alt-right who see it as a way to increase tolerance among different cultures and integration due to shared values.

To the alt right being anti-globalist is not an economic matter, it is a racial one. I wish more liberals will come to understand that globalization is needed, even if they view it as an necessary evil, to achieve peace and create a world of collectivism.

 

[tedrotheredro]

NYDN asks for James Comey to resign:

http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/fbi-mad-bomber-james-comey-resign-article-1.2851511

FBI Director James Comey’s democracy-bending decision to inform America, 11 days before its presidential election, that the bureau is digging into a trove of additional emails demands the highest condemnation. And he must resign.

President Obama must order Attorney General Loretta Lynch to take the case out of Comey’s hands and to fully report the facts as they are known.

Without any base of knowledge, Comey let loose combustible information that could improperly and groundlessly decide the election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

Comey has betrayed both the country and the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Trash has been trying to push the argument that the race is right and trump could win since July. Don't read 538's punditry or look at their trash.

ftfy

 

[Chumly]

Nate has fallon victim to the "horse race" cancer. It's very common in national media and Nate just can't help the attention and money it brings him. Will do anything to distort the truth to make things more interesting than they are.

 

[Aaron Strife]

You'll Likely Be Reading One Of These 5 Articles The Day After The Election

1. The Clinton Landslide

In a staggering rejection of GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump, voters last night elected Hillary Clinton as the nation’s first female president, 53 percent to 41 percent — the widest margin in a presidential race since 1984. Clinton swept 30 states totaling 413 electoral votes. In an exclamation point, Clinton carried Arizona, Georgia and even Texas. Repudiating Trump, Utah gave its six electoral votes to conservative independent Evan McMullin.

Clinton’s landslide was fueled by record Democratic support among whites with a college degree, particularly women, as well as heightened turnout from Latino and Asian voters. Clinton won whites with a college degree by 10 percentage points, a huge turnaround from 2012, when Mitt Romney won them by 10 points. Black turnout and support remained steady from 2012, despite fears among Clinton backers that African-American enthusiasm would lag without President Obama on the ballot.

Turnout among Latinos surged from 47 percent to 57 percent, and Clinton won them by a massive 58 points, allowing Clinton to shock Trump in the Lone Star State. After plenty of hype, there was no uptick in turnout or support for Trump among whites without a college degree; he won them by about the same margin as Mitt Romney did. Moreover, support for third-party candidates was just 6 percent, lower than many pre-election polls had predicted.

Down ballot, Democrats swept all seven Senate races rated as “toss-ups” by the Cook Political Report, earning a 54 to 46 majority and even defeating Marco Rubio in Florida. They came within five seats of retaking the House, throwing Paul Ryan’s future as speaker into doubt. The magnitude of Clinton’s victory forced Republicans to re-evaluate their long-term national viability: Calling Trump a “cancer on conservatism,” GOP leaders vowed to purge Trump from the party — though it’s unclear they can.

 

[newshinycd]

What kind of fallout would there be if Comey was to resign tomorrow?

CraigSoHappy.jpg

 

[Iolo]

Pundits writing fan fiction about what articles could be written is worse than poligaf writing fictional Hillary responses.

 

[The Technomancer]

I'd be happy with a Comey resignation, but I know exactly how its going to play to the GOP base

"WASHINGTON forced Comey to resign because he got too close to the truth"

 

[Boke1879]

I'd be happy with a Comey resignation, but I know exactly how its going to play to the GOP base

"WASHINGTON forced Comey to resign because he got too close to the truth"

The GOP will call for his resignation anyway

 

[Diablos]

Okay so, say either before, during or after the election Comey suggests that Hillary Clinton should be indicted. Assume that in the first two cases she goes on to win

Then what?

No I'm not freaking out, it's just that we are in uncharted territory here and I'm trying to think of all the worst case scenarios...

Can the electors revolt against her? Can Congress do anything? Can the FBI order either one of them to do anything? Would a lawsuit be filed calling her election illegitimate because she is indicted, and that the House should decide, with the case going to the SCOTUS? I can really see the absolute worst of scorched earth partisan hackery coming out of the woodwork on the GOP side if Comey keeps trying to fuck shit up.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Okay so, say either before, during or after the election Comey suggests that Hillary Clinton should be indicted. Assume that in the first two cases she goes on to win

Then what?

No I'm not freaking out, it's just that we are in uncharted territory here and I'm trying to think of all the worst case scenarios...

Can the electors revolt against her? Can Congress do anything? Can the FBI order either one of them to do anything? Would a lawsuit be filed calling her election illegitimate because she is indicted, and that the House should decide, with the case going to the SCOTUS? I can really see the absolute worst of scorched earth partisan hackery coming out of the woodwork on the GOP side if Comey keeps trying to fuck shit up.

I'd worry about what's actually out there right now than what could come next. What's out there now is bad enough.

 

[GoldenEye 007]

If something happens to the president-elect after the election, the VP-elect becomes president.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

My biggest fear is that in a near future, assuming orange turd doesn't win, people will cling to this idea that the world is completely broken and that something drastic must be done.

Words reminiscent to what orange turd has said but out of someone who is actually intelligent and articulate. How do we stop that? It is clear that there is a populist message that can attract both liberals and alt-right conservatives and that message resonates on the same basis.

That message being an anti-globalist crusade. It both applies to liberals who see it as some monster that is draining economic prosperity and for the alt-right who see it as a way to increase tolerance among different cultures and integration due to shared values.

To the alt right being anti-globalist is not an economic matter, it is a racial one. I wish more liberals will come to understand that globalization is needed, even if they view it as an necessary evil, to achieve peace and create a world of collectivism.

The Obama coalition (and now the Hillary Coalition which bolts white women onto the Obama coalition) largely answers that they're fine with how things are going though. And to be perfectly honest, I don't really want to ever hear from a Trump supporter, "Hey, that's a good plan" on anything we attempt. Trump supporters should be like an anti-compass for which direction you want to go.

Nate has fallon victim to the "horse race" cancer. It's very common in national media and Nate just can't help the attention and money it brings him. Will do anything to distort the truth to make things more interesting than they are.

I strongly dislike his explanations for his models, but I don't think he's in it for the money (I'm sure he's well-off enough). I do think that Silver is essentially the exact sort of white undecided voter who considers both Hillary and Trump to be equally bad (if pressed, he'd say Trump is worse of course, but I really doubt that's his actual emotional response to either of them). He's a libertarian who likely hates the two-party system and is equally embarrassed that his chosen party picked Johnson, one of the worst candidates I can remember. Personal biases like that are hard to deal with. I've got a friend who's almost exactly like Silver; he rants about both Hillary and Trump all the time, and if it's an online post, he finishes the rant with #FeelTheJohnson every time.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Okay so, say either before, during or after the election Comey suggests that Hillary Clinton should be indicted. Assume that in the first two cases she goes on to win

Then what?

No I'm not freaking out, it's just that we are in uncharted territory here and I'm trying to think of all the worst case scenarios...

Can the electors revolt against her? Can Congress do anything? Can the FBI order either one of them to do anything? Would a lawsuit be filed calling her election illegitimate because she is indicted, and that the House should decide, with the case going to the SCOTUS? I can really see the absolute worst of scorched earth partisan hackery coming out of the woodwork on the GOP side if Comey keeps trying to fuck shit up.

Coney has given the DOJ the easiest out to not do anything with his recommendation

Whose going to take what he says about Clinton seriously now?

 

[Iolo]

No I'm not freaking out, it's just that we are in uncharted territory here and I'm trying to think of all the worst case scenarios...

That's the definition of freaking out.

 

[Diablos]

That's the definition of freaking out.

Trying to think of the possibilities that may lie ahead if things go south isn't necessarily freaking out...

 

[brianmcdoogle]

I strongly dislike his explanations for his models, but I don't think he's in it for the money (I'm sure he's well-off enough). I do think that Silver is essentially the exact sort of white undecided voter who considers both Hillary and Trump to be equally bad (if pressed, he'd say Trump is worse of course, but I really doubt that's his actual emotional response to either of them). He's a libertarian who likely hates the two-party system and is equally embarrassed that his chosen party picked Johnson, one of the worst candidates I can remember. Personal biases like that are hard to deal with. I've got a friend who's almost exactly like Silver; he rants about both Hillary and Trump all the time, and if it's an online post, he finishes the rant with #FeelTheJohnson every time.

Electoral-Vote and others disagree with the bolded.


From the OP of my thread, curtosey of electoral-vote:

There may also be a second major issue with FiveThirtyEight, which we will describe as one of economy. We start this part of the discussion by noting that every one of us who is writing about politics this year benefits from a horse race. "Things are the same as they were yesterday" is not a story. "Clinton extends her lead" and "Trump makes up ground on Clinton" are. Similarly, we also benefit from finding things that are new and different to talk about. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and his rallies tended to get relatively little media coverage; not because of any particular bias against him, but because they were all the same. You can only write, "10,000 young, mostly white people show up to cheer Sanders" so many times. Hillary Clinton, evenhanded and cautious as she is, also tends to give us relatively little to talk about much of the time. With Donald Trump, on the other hand, it's several new and outrageous and previously unheard of things almost every day. Hence his dominance of the headlines.

Point is, all the political sites have a certain bias towards "dog bites man." However, there is reason to believe the bias is unusually strong for Silver and his crew. Many political sites and prognosticators—NBC News, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Bloomberg Politics—are part of organizations for whom political coverage is part of their core mission. Others—Sabato's Crystal Ball, the Harvard Political Review—are part of (and are supported by) universities. Still others—HuffPo, Breitbart, Politico, The Hill—are already stable, self-sustaining businesses. And a few—this site, Sam Wang's Princeton Election Consortium—are side projects of academics who already have day jobs. The point is that while we all like page views and clicks, none of these sites is—as far as we know—facing an immediate existential crisis. Page views could go up or down by 50%, and most or all of the above would keep on trucking.

 

[Ecotic]

My biggest fear in this coming week is a plausible one. Comey comes out Thursday or Friday and has a big dramatic news conference where he attempts to add clarity but ends up saying "I don't know anything yet" and Hillary and Democrats have to endure the entire final 11 day stretch without one favorable news cycle.

 

[NeoXChaos]

My biggest fear in this coming week is a plausible one. Comey comes out Thursday or Friday and has a big dramatic news conference where he attempts to add clarity but ends up saying "I don't know anything yet" and Hillary and Democrats have to endure the entire final 11 day stretch without one favorable news cycle.

oppo hits around that time. No worries.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I'm not freaking out, but what happens if Hillary dies in jail after she's indicted for killing Ben Ghazi? Do they place her corpse on a bible and still swear her in? Does Russia invade and force everyone to eat nothing but borscht?

We're in Uncharted territory here.

 

[ZealousD]

Nate has been trying to push the argument that the race is right and trump could win since July. Don't read 538's punditry, just look at their models.

Nate Silver during the primaries: "There is no way Trump can win."
PoliGAF during the primaries: "Trump can absolutely win this, pay attention to the polls, Nate. Stop hunting for clicks."

Nate Silver during the general: "There is a one-in-five chance that Trump could win. The polls and my model say so."
PoliGAF during the primaries: "Trump loses 100% of the time. Stop hunting for clicks."

PoliGAF likes to shit on Nate Silver for his articles right now, but really the model and how he presents it is really why you should go there. I don't really know whether his calculation for Hillary's chances to win is really accurate but I don't see how it's any worse than Nate Cohn, which PoliGAF loves. Maybe GAF just likes seeing the higher number on the Upshot. Both models are ultimately based on polls in which at least two-thirds of them seem to have questionable methodology or poor sampling.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Trying to think of the possibilities that may lie ahead if things go south isn't necessarily freaking out...

It is when you start freaking out about them!

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Comey resigning would just extend this and make Clinton look worse. The freak out over this, from Reid's laughable letter to some other hand wringing I've seen on Twitter, really reminds us that democrats are still losers even after winning a few national elections. And it also shows that Hillary would be DOA right now against a decent republican nominee.

Relax, nothing changed on the ground.

 

[Bowdz]

Regardless of what happens this week, Hillary just needs to keep her head down and campaign. We'll have the Obamas out, Warren and Bernie out, rock the vote concerts, and a constant GOTV push along side her. All we can do is execute and make sure our people vote.

Being optimistic in a shitty situation, we might get an assist with the mythical oppo that could help take some heat off of Clinton. I don't think the Comey story is going away until the election, but having some bombs go off in Trump's direction should help even out the coverage.

Regardless, this is going to be a fucking crazy week.

 

[whyamihere]

Fun article about why Trump has struggled so much in Alaska:

https://www.adn.com/politics/2016/1...nt-never-really-took-off-in-red-state-alaska/

As noted previously, it doesn't actually take a huge swing in voters to move Alaska since so few people there vote.

 

[kess]

I dunno, Comey's handled this so badly so far, I wonder if a few people are questioning his editorializing of the emails in the first place given his, um, extremely careless conduct this week.

 

[HK-47]

Why are people losing their damn minds over this?

 

[shem935]

Why are people losing their damn minds over this?

Only thing happening in a relatively boring stretch of the campaign

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Man, Hillary and her crew are EVERYWHERE this week. They have like 6-12 scheduled events every day this week:
https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/

 

[marrec]

Only thing happening in a relatively boring stretch of the campaign

If this were a scary movie this would be the part where everyone thought the bad guy was dead but he sits up ready to murder s'more

 

[Stinkles]

Pundits writing fan fiction about what articles could be written is worse than poligaf writing fictional Hillary responses.

The once was a fellow named Comey
Whose spittle flecked base was all Foamy
They frothed at the mouth
From P.A. to the south
Till Chaffetz blurted out "he's my homey!"

 

[BlastProcessing]

Comey resigning would just extend this and make Clinton look worse. The freak out over this, from Reid's laughable letter to some other hand wringing I've seen on Twitter, really reminds us that democrats are still losers even after winning a few national elections. And it also shows that Hillary would be DOA right now against a decent republican nominee.

Relax, nothing changed on the ground.

I agree with everything except for the bolded. A decent Republican nominee would require a decent Republican electorate.

 

[metalslimer]

I agree with everything except for the bolded. A decent Republican nominee would require a decent Republican electorate.

It also assumes Clinton would have run the exact same campaign. Fundamentally I think having these campaigns be about the issues favors Democrats as republican policy isn't more popular. You wouldn't have seen the backlash to free trade from Republicans. Social issues would have come up a lot more as well.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

Electoral-Vote and others disagree with the bolded.


From the OP of my thread, curtosey of electoral-vote:

I wasn't clear. Obviously he wants traffic, but as this article even states, this is true of all media. I don't think Silver is any more or less affected by this. I do think he's more affected by being a contrarian (which is basically a synonym for libertarian).

Comey resigning would just extend this and make Clinton look worse. The freak out over this, from Reid's laughable letter to some other hand wringing I've seen on Twitter, really reminds us that democrats are still losers even after winning a few national elections. And it also shows that Hillary would be DOA right now against a decent republican nominee.

Relax, nothing changed on the ground.

I don't know that I agree with most of this. Comey resigning pretty clearly extends this, but it would mostly be about egg on his face (which is already the current narrative anyway). As for the "freak out" over this, I wouldn't lump Reid's letter into that. His letter was great; I'm frankly tired of liberals rolling over every time the Right hits us. It's depressing to be on the side that just decides to feint whenever a stiff breeze goes by.

You know that dumb Sorkin clip (from an HBO show I think?) that's got a ton of playback as the "Greatest/Most Accurate 3 Minutes on TV?" The clip itself is bullshit, but the reason it's so popular is because most of the country believes (and is mostly correct) that liberals "lose so goddamn always" because they're pansies. Being a conservative is, to the general public, understandable and acceptable (not really alt-right, but still right wing). Being a liberal is something people say sheepishly, not confidently. And why would anyone be confident about being a liberal? It's not like you've got anyone to rally around as a champion since all of our top officials capitulate at every turn, which undermines the whole position. Obama is probably the best for this, but damn, the guy needed to get a spine for years. I know DGAF Obama is fun now, but he should've been DGAF Obama for years now.

As for the Hillary thing, I don't really see it. As I mentioned earlier tonight, Dems focus too much on the Presidency when the EC and demographic changes are carrying us most of the way there. A moderate Republican (unicorn basically) would probably take Iowa/Ohio/NC from her (and wouldn't lose AZ/AK/GA either), but that still loses you the White House.

Still won't stop our side from wasting another term in the White House wondering who we'll run next time as the GOP sweeps every office beneath it!

 

[JetBlackPanda]

Why are people losing their damn minds over this?

It's dominating the news cycle close to the finish and it's negative for Hillary (even though it's unfair)

 

[NeoXChaos]

Well to be fair the presidency is all we have left stopping R's from controlling all 3 branches of government & 30 states. Considering we suck at everything else.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

Well to be fair the presidency is all we have left stopping R's from controlling all 3 branches of government & 30 states. Considering we suck at everything else.

Right, but I think the latter problem is fixable if we weren't so focused on maintaining the former solution. We need to stop taking every worthwhile Dem in the country and saying "They should run for President!" Let them be good senators/reps/governors/etc... and expand our influence.

 

[TestOfTide]

Fun article about why Trump has struggled so much in Alaska:

https://www.adn.com/politics/2016/1...nt-never-really-took-off-in-red-state-alaska/

As noted previously, it doesn't actually take a huge swing in voters to move Alaska since so few people there vote.

It probably helps that Alaska tends to be a more Libertarian Red type of state. Everyone knows that Trump's biggest pushes have been for social conservative policies and he has in no way shown any serious commitment to actual "small government" mentality.

Plus I bet that Alaskans tend to get the most worried about Putin considering how geographically close they are to Russia. We all mocked Sarah Palin in 2008 for her paranoia of Putin (and we even mocked Romney for saying that Russia is our biggest adversary), yet now that paranoia seems have been a good idea, even if with Palin is seems to have been for dumb reasons.

 

[Grief.exe]

It's dominating the news cycle close to the finish and it's negative for Hillary (even though it's unfair)

Every time this is in the news it hurts Hillary, legitimate or not it will impact the race negatively. She will not lose, but the down ballot Dems will be impacted, which is pivotal.

Right, but I think the latter problem is fixable if we weren't so focused on maintaining the former solution. We need to stop taking every worthwhile Dem in the country and saying "They should run for President!" Let them be good senators/reps/governors/etc... and expand our influence.

Especially with Obama campaigning in off years.

Just need to keep the republic limping in for another 8 years. Then enough of the 65+ demographic will have kicked the bucket, and we have the next generation coming online, who will be even more educated and diverse than millennials.

 

[RastaMentality]

Well to be fair the presidency is all we have left stopping R's from controlling all 3 branches of government & 30 states. Considering we suck at everything else.

yup. Crazy that the Trump campaign hasn't been playing it up that they'll have unilateral control of the government if they win!

 

[B-Dubs]

It probably helps that Alaska tends to be a more Libertarian Red type of state. Everyone knows that Trump's biggest pushes have been for social conservative policies and he has in no way shown any serious commitment to actual "small government" mentality.

Plus I bet that Alaskans tend to get the most worried about Putin considering how geographically close they are to Russia. We all mocked Sarah Palin in 2008 for her paranoia of Putin (and we even mocked Romney for saying that Russia is our biggest adversary), yet now that paranoia seems have been a good idea, even if with Palin is seems to have been for dumb reasons.

I remember reading how it's basically the gender gap that's winning Alaska for the GOP. As the gap shifts to 50/50 the state gets closer and closer to flipping.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Please tell me that Hillary winning will also turn the house and eventually the Senate...