Looking average is probably the better word. Nevada already looks like it may be won. Both parties are voting more this cycle in NC, dems started weak in Ohio but are picking up some steam.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
- Thread starter eBay Huckster
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ITS OVER
Started out ok...getting less ok as time goes on. We will still win. It is the Senate at risk...which is disastrous of course. Cross your fingers gonna be close in the Senate
Crimson_Gold
Member
You traded the presidency for the TLG release. You are to blame for all of this
Started out ok...getting less ok as time goes on. We will still win. It is the Senate at risk...which is disastrous of course. Cross your fingers gonna be close in the Senate
Ugh.....a shame. A week ago I was hoping to sweep it and pick up a bigger chunk of the House, too. What a difference a week makes!
Edit: And like I've been saying for a while, I'm not worried about her losing. I'm worried about the Senate so shit can actually get done (hopefully). I also wanted a massive pounding to this far right Republican Party.
Lord Frieza
Member
So, is there real thought that Clinton could lose NC, or are we mostly just concerned about downticket there? I have to admit, I am a little confused, too.
shadowsdarknes
Member
Just saw a bunch of old white dudes on a street corner holding up signs saying, "Blacks and LGBT for Trump!"
I just shook my head as I walked past them.
I just shook my head as I walked past them.
We haven't see a noticeable change from early voting prior to Comey and after Comey
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
So this really is a thing, huh? I thought the people at rallies were just trolling.
Lord Frieza
Member
But still, early voting is not as good as expected? Was that just misreporting, or was misinformation being spread about good early voting turn-out? That's what confusing me.
shinra-bansho
Member
Hillarexit.
nature boy
Member
Done deal:
IL
WI
Reid machine:
NV
Win 2 of these:
PA
NC
NH
MO
Kaine is VP and has the golden vote.
And I'm assuming Murphy and Strickland are DOA (well Strickland is)
House was never really in play
P.S.: Bedwetting was never a GAF thing. It originally came from David Plouffe (many Dem bedwetters out there) and we used it out of respect to Diablos and retired the _____sing.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
It may be regressing to means independently of Comey and with a lot of confounding factors. That still means Clinton wins in CO and NV, looking better in OH, looking less better in NC.
TestOfTide
Banned
I hate the whole idea of putting state constitution amendments up to referendums. I can understand having non-amendment laws and small stuff up to referendums, but I am 100% certain that putting AMENDMENTS up to referendums is the sort of shit the Founders DIDN'T want and for very good reason.
I don't actually know how to interpret anything, and godcohn has said early voting looks Ok for Clinton in Nc for example, but I seem to be reading repeatedly that the electorate looks less diverse than last time. Apparently black turnout is down in nc a lot and Ohio a lot. Now in nc obviously there was a cutback in hours, but it's super concerning to me and I'd like to see Sunday data in nc. Where is it? Is everyone asleep?
Less better is concerning to me because it looked bad.
Of course as I post this McDonald just updated and said it's good but more white people voted this year vs last. Lol come on.
Lord Frieza
Member
Less better is concerning to me because it looked bad.
Of course as I post this McDonald just updated and said it's good but more white people voted this year vs last. Lol come on.
I don't know if I should be concerned there or not. All depends on what kind of white people we are talking about, I guess.
Randolph Freelander
Member
I was looking at Mecklenburg County's (Charlotte) early voting statistics yesterday. Through the first 7 days of early voting, the counts trailed 2012. Down roughly 13.3%. With the opening of additional sites, the tables have turned. Over the past 4 days, 2016 has caught up to 2012 and is now 3.6% ahead of the pace.
Code:
Day 2012 RSum 2016 RSum Pct
1 15127 15127 13459 13459 89.0%
2 13961 29088 13043 26502 91.1%
3 11310 40398 9584 36086 89.3%
4 5468 45866 5573 41659 90.8%
5 14625 60491 12748 54407 89.9%
6 15314 75805 12698 67105 88.5%
7 15351 91156 11932 79037 86.7%
8 15130 106286 21815 100852 94.9%
9 15319 121605 21485 122337 100.6%
10 13260 134865 15467 137804 102.2%
11 6866 141731 8964 146768 103.6%
12 16979 158710 0.0%
13 16297 175007 0.0%
14 16398 191405 0.0%
15 18204 209609 0.0%
16 20594 230203 0.0%
17 20800 251003 0.0%
RSum = Running Sum2016 Data: http://apps.meckboe.org/Pages/Election/EarlyVoting/2016NovGen.htm
2012 Data: http://charmeck.org/mecklenburg/cou...ng/2012 Early Voting - General Statistics.pdf
With any luck, the rest of the state is similarly regaining lost ground.
TestOfTide
Banned
I seriously doubt that Clinton's campaign will allow for lower turnout than 2012 among ANY demographics.
I bet the numbers just look the way they do because there have to be Trump fans who never bothered to unregister from the Democratic Party even though they should have years ago.
There is absolutely no way that the conservative side is energized this election (except in maybe Ohio) and we know that the Trump campaign has no GOTV.
If I end up wrong when the final results come in then fuck America.
I bet the numbers just look the way they do because there have to be Trump fans who never bothered to unregister from the Democratic Party even though they should have years ago.
There is absolutely no way that the conservative side is energized this election (except in maybe Ohio) and we know that the Trump campaign has no GOTV.
If I end up wrong when the final results come in then fuck America.
It's based heavily on their own numbers, which had Clinton ahead about 6 points, but the Upshot is monitoring NC early voting. A lot of great info here:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html
They address that in their tracking. As of yesterday morning, they believe the white crowd that's voting early isn't going Trump is large numbers.
Edit: Worded it wrong
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html
They address that in their tracking. As of yesterday morning, they believe the white crowd that's voting early isn't going Trump is large numbers.
Edit: Worded it wrong
Fragamemnon
Member
break out the pamperz:
6000 more than the same Sunday in 2012, but less African-American and less Dem.
That being said, percentages may be deceiving becuase unaffiliated numbers were through the roof:
The big unknown in NC early voting is just what the split is for the unaffiliateds.
6000 more than the same Sunday in 2012, but less African-American and less Dem.
That being said, percentages may be deceiving becuase unaffiliated numbers were through the roof:
The big unknown in NC early voting is just what the split is for the unaffiliateds.
User 463088
Banned
The issue is, there are a lot more unaffiliated voters this year in NC than in 2012. Yesterday was a good day for us. White turnout was also higher than in 2012. However, unaffiliated voter turnout was a lot higher than in 2012. Based on what we know, that's probably good for us, because the largest increases in unaffiliated voters came from young people. On the whole, Dems were up 1.2k from 2012, so there is no evidence that the Comey shit show made a difference.
Also, in Nevada, the firewall is now at 47,000 votes. Ralston says that we'll hit 60,000 at least. Anything above 50k is essentially impossible for Donald to overcome. So we're doing quite well there.
Florida, again, is going to come down to what all these unaffiliated voters are doing. We''re running very well Dem/Rep. However, in 2012, Unaffiliated voters made up about 100,000 of the early vote. This year, it's above 700,000. While we don't know how they're voting, we do know they're a lot younger than the electorate as a whole, a 1/3rd of them are Hispanic, and something like 1/5 is African American.
GOP currently has a 9k vote lead. Outstanding absentee ballots favor Dems by a margin of 71k votes. We won the I-4 Corridor again this weekend (EVEN POLK COUNTY!) So, the huge number of NPA is the real question mark here.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Badly need age breakdown for unaffiliated
balladofwindfishes
Member
Unaffiliated is probably mostly young people. Which are basically just Dem voters who are too edgy to align with a party.
I believe GOP generally takes the early vote lead on Florida, but that margin is indicative of a Florida lost. Generally they are ahead by 30-40k at this point, not less than 10k.
They're nothing but Jill Stein write-ins, FUCK
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
I've long been curious how there's still so many still torn between Hillary and Trump. The two candidates are so diametrically opposite to one another to the point of no real overlap in policies or position. It's like these undecided have split personality disorder or something.
Fragamemnon
Member
I could say that it depends. But it's more likely you'll be changing your Depends after seeing this chart:
(current as of 10/30)
Ziltoidia 9
Member
I was guessing some anti trump line will be started today, to combat the emails. Has it started?
User 463088
Banned
Also, when it comes to new registrations:
We should have a 3-4% lead by the end of early voting. However, there are a hell of a lot more NPA voters than this time last cycle. The in person early voting is making the electorate a lot more white than just the absentee voting. THat's what we want to see.
Also, we are maintaining a slightly lead in Duval. If Trump has a huge surge of white people, he needs to be doing a lot better there than he is.
I'm really confused by all the early vote handwringing because I could swear just 24 hours ago you guys were talking about how Hillary is leading early voting in NV and NC, and that FL Dems have closed the gap with FL GOP from 5ish percent to 1.7 something (and that's with Dems still winning FL last time around).
Nothing will come out until probably Thursday or Friday. The email shit isn't swinging anything really and if there is something to drop it's best to do it closer to the weekend so you can dominate the day it goes live and the weekend going into election day.
whyamihere
Banned
Man, the lack of high quality polling is really taking its toll this election. It's putting a lot of onus on one or two polling firms and a lot of shitty firms are getting more exposure.
Fragamemnon
Member
Hillary is leading early voting in NC. The issue is if she's able to get far enough ahead to win on election day, and getting enough Dem growth to help drag Ross across the finish line.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
NV is looking like a lock. You can feel pretty good about coloring that in blue while trying to figure out panic scenarios on 270towin.
whyamihere
Banned
Different people are doing different handwringing?
Fragamemnon
Member
I feel that the Upshot/Siena polls were great right up through that Florida poll a few days ago.
bigger issue is that there are so many hack R-lean pollsters out there messing with averages. Fewer D-leaning garbage polls than I remember from previous cycles.
nature boy
Member
.
Ziltoidia 9
Member
Amazingly, of the polls out today, Rasmussen has the biggest Clinton advantage.
newshinycd
Member
Don't read into it too much. PoliGaf likes to pretend to read tea leaves. Then we accidentally piss on them, the pot, and all the cups and complain that the tea is ruined. All knowing that it was just the little tikes set not the actual tea set sitting over at the adults table.
We're practically reading tea leaves right now. The conclusions we draw are influenced by our current mood.
edit: ^ hey tea leaves was my line
balladofwindfishes
Member
UFO-gate is going to cost Hillary the election!!
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