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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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Fragamemnon

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
UFO-gate is going to cost Hillary the election!!
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hillary lied , xcom died

Y2Kev said:
I'm just trying to reconcile how public polling always has Hillaremail leading among those who early vote while the party data looks sort of mediocre. I guess it could be NPA/unaffiliated.
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If true, it reinforces the "new silent majority" line that Ezra Klein and some others were rolling out over the last few weeks.
 
S

SpeedySwaf

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
Wasn't Romney up in the RCP average on election day?
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wumster3000 said:
I think it was a tie going in.
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According to RCP, the average was Obama +0.7, and the final ended up being Obama +3.9. Similarly, he had a 0.1 advantage at this time.

I hate that her lead at RCP dropped to less than 3, but at the same time that's in part being driven by polls that have always been leaning Trump. The Huff Post average is more-or-less the same. That said, it's relatively early, so we still need more polls to see if there were any significant effects, and even then we won't know if those effects are permanent or would otherwise be temp drops.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Blader said:
I'm really confused by all the early vote handwringing because I could swear just 24 hours ago you guys were talking about how Hillary is leading early voting in NV and NC, and that FL Dems have closed the gap with FL GOP from 5ish percent to 1.7 something (and that's with Dems still winning FL last time around).
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I really wish people would cut out the snark and pretend bedwetting, because 1) It's rarely funny and 2) people actually are trying to have adult conversations about what's going on. (This isn't directed at you, btw).

NV looks perfect for us. Exactly where we need to be.

NC looks good for us. We have no reason to think we're not doing well there, especially based on on this weekend's numbers. Polling shows us that Hillary is leading the early vote their comfortably. NYT tracker is interesting. NC was always going to be fairly close, but there is ample evidence to suggest she is leading and probably by a decent enough margin to carry the state.

FL also looks fine. Typically, the GOP has a 5% lead in ABSENTEE ballots. (Vote by mail). This year, they had a 1.7% lead. With in person voting, that lead is now down to less than 7k votes or 0.23%. Remember, this is only based on party registration. There are huge numbers of no party affiliated people this cycle. (A lot more than usual).

Look at Miami-Dade county. The partisan split was 43 (Dem) 29 (GOP) and 28 (NPA). Now, on paper, that gives us a 14 point edge. That looks pretty good! However ,we know that the vast majority of those NPA people are voting Democratic. Hillary is probably getting at least 2/3 of them. That won't show up in the early voting statistics because we ONLY know Party ID.

Where we need to win, and have increased turnout, is along the I-4 corridor. And we are! We've won there every single day since in person early voting started. We're winning Polk County which is like the Kentucky of central Florida.

I'm not saying we're guaranteed to win, but I see nothing to indicate we're losing.
 
D

Dierce

Member
SpeedySwaf said:
According to RCP, the average was Obama +0.7, and the final ended up being Obama +3.9. Similarly, he had a 0.1 advantage at this time.

I hate that her lead at RCP dropped to less than 3, but at the same time that's in part being driven by polls that have always been leaning Trump. The Huff Post average is more-or-less the same. That said, it's relatively early, so we still need more polls to see if there were any significant effects, and even then we won't know if those effects are permanent or would otherwise be temp drops.
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Even if the email nonsense has no effect on Clinton's number it is helping give orange turd a free pass on all the bullshit he keeps saying. Goddamn fucking Comey asshole. I hope he is pressured to resign shortly after the election.
 
A

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Joe Shlabotnik said:
NV is looking like a lock. You can feel pretty good about coloring that in blue while trying to figure out panic scenarios on 270towin.
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I think there are already enough states to push her over 270 before coloring Nevada blue. It's not a state she's ever polled that great in and got zero bounce from the convention (like Iowa).
 
W

witness

Member
Blader said:
I'm really confused by all the early vote handwringing because I could swear just 24 hours ago you guys were talking about how Hillary is leading early voting in NV and NC, and that FL Dems have closed the gap with FL GOP from 5ish percent to 1.7 something (and that's with Dems still winning FL last time around).
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This is all still true, people are going through the PoliGAF cycle right now and we are currently in rubber sheets mode. Most younger voters go NPA in Florida, I was for the last 11 myself but I always voted Dem my entire life. I have no worries about how NPA's are voting here.
 
G

Grexeno

Member
A Human Becoming said:
I think there are already enough states to push her over 270 before coloring Nevada blue. It's not a state she's ever polled that great in and got zero bounce from the convention (like Iowa).
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Nevada polling is typically unable to accurately count Hispanic voters. Hillary is a lock there.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
All of this focus on NC and FL (For obvious reasons) but Clinton still has over 270 votes almost completely baked in from PA, VA, MI, WI, NH and CO (272-273 votes). We can probably throw Nevada in that group as well.

Upshot and Predictwise have all of those at 90% or higher going Clinton.

Though it would be hella nice to cut Trump's legs out from under him by winning NC.
 
V

Vyrance

Member
I'm one of those unaffiliateds in Florida. I always vote Democrat, and mailed my vote in this year. Just never wanted to be tied to a party. I'd expect a lot of unaffiliateds to side with Hillary especially younger people and with all the new Puerto Ricans in the state this cycle
 
R

Revolver

Member
Steve Cohen was on CNN demanding Comey's resignation and said this could cost her the election. Ugh, this week is going to feel like it's lasting forever.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Boke1879 said:
Mook just posted this.
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Souls to the Polls stay winning. This is going to get even better by next Sunday

Soul of the mind, key to life's ether
Soul of the lost, withdrawn from its vessel
May strength be granted so the world might be mended...
So the world might be mended...
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Fragamemnon said:
I feel that the Upshot/Siena polls were great right up through that Florida poll a few days ago.

bigger issue is that there are so many hack R-lean pollsters out there messing with averages. Fewer D-leaning garbage polls than I remember from previous cycles.
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Those aren't really balanced out with polling done by local newspapers or a flurry of CBS/NBC/ABC state polls that come out every 2 days. It's bizarre and introduces a degree of uncertainty and also bedwetting potential.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Y2Kev said:
I'm just trying to reconcile how public polling always has Hillaremail leading among those who early vote while the party data looks sort of mediocre. I guess it could be NPA/unaffiliated.
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Well, if you look at NC, our registration edge is down (Dixiecrats dying/young people registering NP), yet we've led every poll of who did you vote for? in NC early voting. Those people have to come from somewhere, and they're coming from NP (a lot of them are young, liberal, and diverse). Also, she'll probably do slightly better with registered Democrats than Obama did.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
This week will be an all out blitz and Florida and NC are getting a lot of attention from Clinton and her surrogates. We're fine people.
 
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Zukkoyaki

Member
Lots of folks on Twitter talking about the lack of quality polling (nice to see even the 538 guys roll their eyes at the Remingtons and such). I feel like we're going to get maybe one more round of good polls from the usual suspects.
 
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Ziltoidia 9

Member
One thing I think the dems could have done better would be connecting Pence to social issue crap he believes. A way to undercut Trumps "outside of Washington" mantra is to show that he would have a bunch of establishment, social conservatives in his whitehouse.
 
F

Frank the Great

Banned
If Hillary has Nevada on lock, the only chance Trump has is to run the board on the remaining swing states and flip Wisconsin or PA. That could force a tie or a win for Trump based on ME-2.

I don't think he has ever lead a Wisconsin or PA poll. I think we are good fam.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
YouGov finds no evidence that the Comey shenanigans are having an effect says the head of Huffington Pollster. Their tracker is actually up from yesterday!
 
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