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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Souldriver said:
But... isn't that the point of 538? Throw all the polls on a pile, and out of all the noise and outliers you get a good average result that might actually reflect reality. We love to hate on 538 in here, which I find a bit petty.
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When all you're getting are bad polls (landline only, IVR, etc.) from partisan firms it's going to knock your model out of whack. Especially when they treat them like pretty much everything else. If you look around the various national and state polls on their site, you can see shitty polls getting heavy weight all over the place. That's a great way to generate an outlierish model.
 
L

Lord Frieza

Member
Souldriver said:
But... isn't that the point of 538? Throw all the polls on a pile, and out of all the noise and outliers you get a good average result that might actually reflect reality. We love to hate on 538 in here, which I find a bit petty.
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Well, I mean, not all polls are created equal. And the equation he uses deliberately factors in effects of unlikely events much higher than most aggregates, he wrote about this himself here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...r-model-is-more-bullish-than-others-on-trump/

I understand the criticisms he gets, because his method and model this cycles creates a constantly up and down roller coaster compared to most others traditional models.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Y2Kev said:
Rethuglicans are actually running ahead of 2012 so not great!!!
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No, they're not.

CwIO8iuUIAAcHCm.jpg:large
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
Souldriver said:
But... isn't that the point of 538? Throw all the polls on a pile, and out of all the noise and outliers you get a good average result that might actually reflect reality. We love to hate on 538 in here, which I find a bit petty.
Click to expand...

What you're describing is actually an aggregate, 538 is a proprietary model that takes polls, tweaks them, and then applies that to a mathematical model of their design.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Zukkoyaki said:
When all you're getting are bad polls (landline only, IVR, etc.) from partisan firms it's going to knock your model out of whack. Especially when they treat them like pretty much everything else. If you look around the various national and state polls on their site, you can see shitty polls getting heavy weight all over the place. That's a great way to generate an outlierish model.
Click to expand...

I would blame the overall polling atmosphere we're in. Very few live-caller polls of quality out there these days.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Souldriver said:
But... isn't that the point of 538? Throw all the polls on a pile, and out of all the noise and outliers you get a good average result that might actually reflect reality. We love to hate on 538 in here, which I find a bit petty.
Click to expand...
That just makes it a crap poll aggregator. That overweights shit like the Google Consumer thing. Which means it's better to just go to Huff Po.
 
P

ProfessorMoran

Member
rjinaz said:
My step dad hates Clinton. All he could talk about this morning was the Black lady that helped Hillary cheat. Sigh. If it's not one thing it's another. I guess the good news is he didn't mention the FBI.
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She helped Clinton during her debate against Bernie as well, Bernie was basically cheated by the party machinery.
 
N

newshinycd

Member
I'm just patiently waiting for NYT to drop their article on about the Trump - Russian Bank communication. No way they are going to let Slate steal the spotlight.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
NYCmetsfan said:
He'd be impeached.

Trump's victory would be a Pence victory. The GOP isn't gonna want him leading the party. They have the votes to impeach and remove him (dems would even join in)
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This is like choosing between getting kicked in the face or the groin.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Cesare Borgia said:
Thank god the GOP hasn't shitcanned their primary plans for 2020. If they were smart they'd eliminate half the southern states from Feb/March 2020, replace them with midwest states, and attempt to clear the field for Kasich.
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Kasich is a lost cause, changing the structure of the primary isn't going to make the Republican base outside of Ohio like him. Not unless they change it to a "only suburbs are allowed to vote" primary.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Saint Bernard didn't lose because of any one debate. Birdie lost because he didn't have as much support. He wasn't cheated out of anything. He lost by 3.5 million votes.
And the only reason he even got that close is because dumb millennials kept bankrolling his zombie campaign.

People need to get the fuck over it and move on.

So I never have to hear about Bernie Sanders again, unless he is making new albums.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
I love how Sam Wang's just throws his model code up on a blog post and in text files like it's 2002. No formatting, no GitHub, no R/Python, just a dump of HOT RAW MATLAB all over your face.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Pence as president is horrifying for different reasons. I guess I'd take it because it would lessen the chance of nuclear holocaust but at least maybe I can think Trump would be so unpopular none of his policies would get passed.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
Pence would just rubber stamp whatever Ryan and Mitch pass through congress. Thankfully that wouldn't be much because they can't even pass legislation when they control all the branches (see Bush 2002-2006, absymal!)
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Simone Sanders is probably right:

@SymoneDSanders
I sounded the alarm on this awhile ago. Folks all across the country underestimated the impact of millennials particularly black millennials
FiveThirtyEight @FiveThirtyEight
Clinton's outperforming Obama with Hispanics and underperforming him with black voters: http://53eig.ht/2eqGgBL
Click to expand...
Click to expand...

@SymoneDSanders
HRC will still most likely win, but that she won't win with the entire base is an issue. Gotta do serious relationship bldg post Nov. 8
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A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Fragamemnon said:
Pence would just rubber stamp whatever Ryan and Mitch pass through congress. Thankfully that wouldn't be much because they can't even pass legislation when they control all the branches (see Bush 2002-2006, absymal!)
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We'd get Obamacare repeal, Planned Parenthood defunded, maybe some tax cuts. I think they'd be at a loss as to what to actually do beyond that though.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
metalslimer said:
Pence as president is horrifying for different reasons. I guess I'd take it because it would lessen the chance of nuclear holocaust but at least maybe I can think Trump would be so unpopular none of his policies would get passed.
Click to expand...

You'd get Pence policy either way. You really think Pence isn't on the same page with the GOP as a whole? Trump wouldn't concern himself with the machinations and arcane aspects of legislating. He'd only bother to bang the Bully Pulpit to push something that benefits him, or his benefactors, he'd outsource the rest to Pence et al. Trump would spend all day thinking about decorating the First Family residence and planning opulent State Dinners,which would probably be held in his hotels.

When Burr talks about Trump being in-line with GOP priorities, he means Pence is.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
The fact that people still won't admit Bernie lost because he didn't appeal to many minorities is infuriating. The party obviously wanted Hilary Clinton, but Bernie didn't build the coalition necessary to win.

Not only that but he got significant input into the party platform and is probably a bigger figure than any primary loser we've had recently.
 
D

Dubbedinenglish

Banned
THE OPPO SENSES ARE TINGLING

http://www.motherjones.com/politics...ging-russian-operation-cultivate-donald-trump

Siren.gif~c200
Siren.gif~c200
Siren.gif~c200


In June, the former Western intelligence officer—who spent almost two decades on Russian intelligence matters and who now works with a US firm that gathers information on Russia for corporate clients—was assigned the task of researching Trump's dealings in Russia and elsewhere, according to the former spy and his associates in this American firm. This was for an opposition research project originally financed by a Republican client critical of the celebrity mogul. (Before the former spy was retained, the project's financing switched to a client allied with Democrats.) "It started off as a fairly general inquiry," says the former spook, who asks not to be identified. But when he dug into Trump, he notes, he came across troubling information indicating connections between Trump and the Russian government. According to his sources, he says, "there was an established exchange of information between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin of mutual benefit."
Click to expand...
 
A

Amir0x

Banned
Boke1879 said:
He lost by 3 millions votes.
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But dont you see Donna gave her a question about lead poisoning in a Michigan primary debate, no way Bernie (and everyone else on Earth) could have predicted that! Well, Bernie probably couldnt because he atrociously prepared for everything. But still!


Look Donna should be fired, but Bernie supporters continue to embarass themselves. Just stahp.
 
T

TumblingHippo

Member
Wait, so I don't get it (and forgive me for not being familiar with the Huma story...) but Huma was a victim in all this, right? From her scummy husband? Why are people treating it like Huma needs to come clean for anything or is being punished for not campaigning with Hillary right now?

Again, this might be a misunderstanding on my part.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Bill Mitchell ‏@mitchellvii 16m16 minutes ago
I'm telling you, Doug Schoen didn't disavow Hillary on FoxNews without a stamp of approval from on high.

The Dems are done with her.

Bill Mitchell ‏@mitchellvii 18m18 minutes ago
At this point, Democrat leadership may no longer want Hillary to win because her impeachment would decimate their brand. Wait for 2020.

Bill Mitchell ‏@mitchellvii 2h2 hours ago
Why Democrats may throw Hillary under the bus. Democrats may calculate a Trump POTUS is better for their party than an impeached Hillary.

Bill Mitchell ‏@mitchellvii 2h2 hours ago
Dems may decide, if Trump is POTUS for 4 years, they can run as the opposition party, but if Hillary wins and is impeached, they're screwed.

Bill Mitchell ‏@mitchellvii 2h2 hours ago
Of course, once again the Democrats are wrong and Trump will be a wonderful POTUS, but this is how they may think.
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This is superior level of Y2Kev trolling


Basileus777 said:
Something happens on October 31st.
Click to expand...

Didn't think Wang was a Halloween guy
 
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