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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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M

Mizerman

Member
MoxManiac said:
So, Trump apparently has a pretrial court date for the rape of the 13 year old girl in december. And the trump university case. And the trump foundation investigation. And of course, not paying taxes.

But Hillary is the criminal!
Click to expand...

Funny, ain't it. And by "funny," I mean "absolutely stupid."
 
C

Chumly

Member
Crimson_Gold said:
Different factions leaking conflicting information if you ask me.
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Maybe it's the rogue trump supporters who want the Clinton foundation investigated? Im sure they are leaking stuff like crazy. I mean it just seems to be incrediblely far fetched to come up with the conclusion that Russia is directing numerous targeted attacks specifically to hurt the democrats but yet it's "not to help trump"??? What??? How is it possible to come to that conclusion.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
The FBI is certainly a mess right now, regardless.
As leaks continue throughout the week, I can't see how Comey keeps his job based on that alone.

His leadership quotient is nearing 0.
Especially with his total silence today.
 
D

Dierce

Member
Chumly said:
Maybe it's the rogue trump supporters who want the Clinton foundation investigated? Im sure they are leaking stuff like crazy. I mean it just seems to be incrediblely far fetched to come up with the conclusion that Russia is directing numerous targeted attacks specifically to hurt the democrats but yet it's "not to help trump"??? What??? How is it possible to come to that conclusion.
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The FBI is more scared of orange turd than it is of Clinton. The authoritarian has no problem with leading a purge that will end the careers of many in federal government. In fact: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...ould-try-to-make-it-easier-to-fire-government
 
T

Trouble

Banned
RustyNails said:
Trump/Christie/Hugh Hewitt sex tape.
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o3Gecp5.gif
 
A

ampere

Member
woah. Obama just sent me an email. THE Obama

Tonight is the campaign’s final end-of-month deadline and Matthew, I am personally asking you to step up.

The campaign only needs 11 people from Atlanta to step up right now, and they especially need her recent supporters like you, who understand how important this is.
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Sure thing Barry we got this!!! Here's some paper
 
M

metalslimer

Member
Suikoguy said:
The FBI is certainly a mess right now, regardless.
As leaks continue throughout the week, I can't see how Comey keeps his job based on that alone.

His leadership quotient is nearing 0.
Especially with his total silence today.
Click to expand...

Yep all these leaks should not be happening from the freaking FBI. It seems like it's everyone for themselves
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Marc Ambinder adding to the mountain of retired journalists writing pre-post-mortems of modern political journalism, in USA Today—the journalistic equivalent of a Dan Brown paint-by-numbers movie tie-in

In the same way, the fact that most journalists dislike Trump and don’t want him to become president does not in any way obviate their obligation to hold a President Hillary Clinton accountable. Nor does it mean that the profession should over-correct and hold Clinton to ridiculous standards. It does mean worrying less about what the audience thinks and worrying more about truth, about facts and about context.
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http://www.usatoday.com/story/opini...h-facts-trump-clinton-marc-ambinder/92847348/
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
Just watched Lincoln again the other day. For context, my wife has never seen me cry, but I was getting visibly emotional during the vote for the 13th Amendment.

Can someone explain to me how the Republicans of that day have flipped to Democrats? I just find it hard to believe that the modern Republican party blocks desegregation, to this day attempts to stop/disenfranchise African Americans to vote, imprison African Americans at a tremendous rate, and attempt to destroy any social safety nets. How is this the party of Lincoln?
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Franklin and Marshall has Hillary+11 and McGinty+12.

http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/913809798323927231-f-m-poll-release-october-2016.pdf

..... Alrighty then.

Also, the GOP in Pennsylvania is actively sabotaging Trump to help Toomey.

But Mrs. Clinton’s troubles still have not altered the overwhelming difficulties faced by Republicans running in states that Mr. Trump is likely to lose. And Republicans in some of these races have quietly started to take steps to win with the help of Mrs. Clinton’s supporters.

Late last week, Pennsylvania Republicans updated their scripts for volunteer phone callers and canvassers to identify, and ultimately turn out, voters who are supporting Senator Patrick J. Toomey — but who also plan to back Mrs. Clinton.
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http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/us/politics/hillary-clinton-campaign.html
 
K

Kangi

Member
That McGinty number is a crazy outlier but I still approve and feel confident she's going to take this.

Now please make it to the finish line, Bayh and Feingold.
 
H

HTupolev

Member
Grief.exe said:
Just watched Lincoln again the other day. For context, my wife has never seen me cry, but I was getting visibly emotional during the vote for the 13th Amendment.

Can someone explain to me how the Republicans of that day have flipped to Democrats? I just find it hard to believe that the modern Republican party blocks desegregation, to this day attempts to stop/disenfranchise African Americans to vote, imprison African Americans at a tremendous rate, and attempt to destroy any social safety nets. How is this the party of Lincoln?
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southern_strategy
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
(((Harry Enten)))Verified account
‏@ForecasterEnten
F&M poll from Pennsylvania (Oct 26 - Oct 30): Clinton 49, Trump 38. Senate race: McGinty 47, Toomey 35.
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Trump losing white college educated by 40 points.

GOP making a dangerous assumption that with a normal candidate that swing will just bounce back.
 
H

hipsterpants

Member
I just have an incredibly hard time believing that definite blue states this election will go and decide to re-elect whatever wave election GOP loser they chose in 2010 while also voting Clinton.

So excited to vote for Kander in 8 days!
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Fragamemnon said:
Trump losing white college educated by 40 points.

GOP making a dangerous assumption that with a normal candidate that swing will just bounce back.
Click to expand...

Of all the demographics, the College Educated are least likely to swing back.

IggyChooChoo said:
Tonight's Samantha Bee segment on the alt-right was really good. Then she had a great piece on the Russian troll industry. She's doing a great job. Hope she gets picked up for 2017.
Click to expand...

She has gone viral a couple of times, it's probably cheap to produce, I suspect it will be picked up again.
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
Tonight's Samantha Bee segment on the alt-right was really good. Then she had a great piece on the Russian troll industry. She's doing a great job. Hope she gets picked up for 2017.
 
A

Armaros

Member
Suikoguy said:
The FBI is certainly a mess right now, regardless.
As leaks continue throughout the week, I can't see how Comey keeps his job based on that alone.

His leadership quotient is nearing 0.
Especially with his total silence today.
Click to expand...

The fact that the FBI has become as leaky as a sieve is all you need to know about his leadership. Everyone forgot about him, and he had to step back into the pool.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Trump is surging in the.... Times-Picayune/Lucid 2016 Presidential Tracking Poll? And that's a big part of his boost on 538.

Lucid even says that this poll is an experiment and should not be taken seriously.

Online polls remain relatively unproven in their application to political projections though they hold great potential as telephone polls conducted through probability sampling rise in cost and representivity becomes more challenging to achieve. This is Lucid’s first attempt to leverage its platform for such a purpose. Analysts of these results should bear that in mind. Constructive feedback is always welcome and appreciated. For full methodology on any given day
Click to expand...

https://luc.id/2016-presidential-tracker/

But if you look at the 538 updates:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/updates/

Hillary dropped 2.4 points after the Lucid polls were added.
 
T

thcsquad

Member
Aaron Strife said:
NY Times on the state of the race post-Comeygate

Highlights:

  • Clinton’s lead over Trump has contracted modestly, but Clinton is still a safe bet to win
  • The Comey news has caused Mrs. Clinton’s most casual supporters to drift away.
  • Optimism about gaining ground in places like OH and IA are fading
  • The Comey news has potentially hurt Democrats in their bid to gain the Senate
  • NC is essentially Safe D — Democratic and Republican internal polling has Clinton ahead.
  • Trump has no chance to win PA, CO, VA, or NH.
  • Wisconsin Senate is getting closer.
I think 300+ EVs for Hillary is all but guaranteed, we just need to make sure to get the Senate too. Even if it's a 50-50 tie I think that would be enough to get a Supreme Court justice (perhaps I'm being too naive or optimistic but I really don't think the Republicans would block Garland from the minority, they have to know how bad that would look after months of "Well the next president should decide" and there are enough senators like Flake, Graham and Collins in the party to make it happen without nuking it) and immigration reform (Hillary said she has 60 votes for it right now). Maybe some big tax/infrastructure deal with Ryan would make for a pretty productive 100 days I think.
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WI Senate is the worst part. Feingold is amazing and needs his seat back. And Ron Johnson is vile and had no business ever holding that seat. I'll gladly trade Bayh for Feingold
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
........ Why is Nate giving this poll a lot of weight?

The Times-Picayune/Lucid 2016 Presidential Tracking poll data released daily is among a national sample of at least 400 adults each day who report both being registered to vote and likely to vote this November. Respondents are selected from among the over one million survey-takers who pass through Lucid’s technology on a daily basis. Results are post-stratified using simple survey weights to reflect national demographics and are displayed as a rolling three-day average.

All respondents on the Lucid platform have volunteered to participate in a survey and were not chosen for participation in the Presidential tracker through random selection. No sampling error can therefore be calculated.
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It's the 7th highest weighted poll on 538 as of now.....


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

https://luc.id/2016-presidential-tracker/
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
.
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Jesus Christ WHAT

Interesting seeing how certain races move. PA Senate seems like it's pretty solid for us while NH seems to still be a tossup (maybe a slight Hassan lean) but they were both roughly in the same spot a few weeks ago.

thcsquad said:
WI Senate is the worst part. Feingold is amazing and needs his seat back. And Ron Johnson is vile and had no business ever holding that seat. I'll gladly trade Bayh for Feingold
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Well, I guess it isn't something that should be taken for granted either. The fact that Wisconsin booted him out in 2010 to begin with is deplorable.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
Zukkoyaki said:
Because of the plethora of garbage landline only, partisan polls they include without a second thought and very little decent polling to offset them.
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Nate's model is easily manipulated just like RCP's is, in the end. My bigger beef is his insane systemic poll bias, which assumes that events like 1980 could happen in an election as heavily polled as the US presidency given modern data analysis methods.
 
M

MoxManiac

Member
Susan collins is a republican senator but is very moderate and reasonable, i don't think she would necessarily obstruct?

It's something, i guess?
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
thcsquad said:
WI Senate is the worst part. Feingold is amazing and needs his seat back. And Ron Johnson is vile and had no business ever holding that seat. I'll gladly trade Bayh for Feingold
Click to expand...

I'm interested to find out whether the Koch's buying of plains/Midwest states' governments will outlive the men, themselves, or whether other money-men step-in to perpetuate the scam.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
........ Why is Nate giving this poll a lot of weight?



It's the 7th highest weighted poll on 538 as of now.....


http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

https://luc.id/2016-presidential-tracker/
Click to expand...
The highest weighted poll is also the Google Consumer Survey which has both at or below 40% and who also has polls showing Clinton winning Missouri and Kansas.

They also weigh LA Times higher than the SurveyMonkey poll from today.

Basically, nobody knows what the fuck they're doing and haven't the entire election.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Zukkoyaki said:
The highest weighted poll is also the Google Consumer Survey which has both at or below 40% and who also has polls showing Clinton winning Missouri and Kansas.

They also weigh LA Times higher than the SurveyMonkey poll from today.

Basically, nobody knows what the fuck they're doing and haven't the entire election.
Click to expand...

I mean, the Lucid poll is barely a poll and is more of an experiment and the company admits it right away.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
MoxManiac said:
Susan collins is a republican senator but is very moderate and reasonable, i don't think she would necessarily obstruct?

It's something, i guess?
Click to expand...

Did you forget 2009-10? Obama spent months of his valuable supermajority courting Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins for their vote on Obamacare. He wasted all his time.
 
H

hipsterpants

Member
my theory is that people feel like Friday's events should have some definitive effect on polls (see Trump's newfound delusion) despite evidence to the contrary
 
H

Holmes

Member
THROW THAT PENNSYLVANIA POLL IN THE GARBAGE BECAUSE SOME OF IT WAS CONDUCTED BEFORE COMEY SENT THE WORLD PLUNGING INTO 10,000 YEARS OF DARKNESS!!!
 
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