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[johnsmith]

THROW THAT PENNSYLVANIA POLL IN THE GARBAGE BECAUSE SOME OF IT WAS CONDUCTED BEFORE COMEY SENT THE WORLD PLUNGING INTO 10,000 YEARS OF DARKNESS!!!

But we're already in year 8 of the darkness.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

Did you forget 2009-10? Obama spent months of his valuable supermajority courting Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins for their vote on Obamacare. He wasted all his time.

Didn't really matter in the end, because the ACA was eventually built to the low standards of Conservadems like Stupak

 

[Zukkoyaki]

I mean, the Lucid poll is barely a poll and is more of an experiment and the company admits it right away.

Yup, and like you said, it's a real head scratcher why it carries the weight it does. I get where 538 is coming from in that they don't want to cherry-pick polls, but they are proving this cycle that it's very possible to be too inclusive.

Edit: aaaaand their most recent update dropped Clinton .2% from a South Dakota poll.

 

[ampere]

Yes, it was the "max yourself out button". I know, I have brought shame upon Adam with my puny contributions.

Every dollars helps buy an ad spot

\o/ we got this team!

 

[ampere]

omg. The gender difference in early voting in Georgia is massive. idk what it was in 2012 for comparison though

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/793303238212714496

 

[Fragamemnon]

Edit: aaaaand their most recent update dropped Clinton .2% from a South Dakota poll.

Don't hate the trends!

 

[i_am_ben]

if the Democrats don't get the Senate I'm gonna be upset

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Holy shit the new Metallica song is way too long.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFAcOnhcpGA

I love a long (and I mean like 3x longer than this song at times) song, but jesus, repeating the same parts over and over again is not interesting.

 

[Pancake Mix]

Holy shit the new Metallica song is way too long.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFAcOnhcpGA

I love a long (and I mean like 3x longer than this song at times) song, but jesus, repeating the same parts over and over again is not interesting.

This for MetalGAF?

I love long Metallica songs, reminds me of ...And Justice For All, their best album. Also, 6 1/2 minutes is not long for Metallica at all, that's pretty average and even short for some albums like the one I mentioned.

 

[Iolo]

So an amazing thread got locked by ModBot, who suggested posting it here instead. Since the OP hasn't done so yet, I'm going to:


From http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1304543

This was posted so long ago here that it had already been picked up and discussed to death by a panel of 12 on CNN.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

This for MetalGAF?

I love long Metallica songs, reminds me of ...And Justice For All, their best album. Also, 6 1/2 minutes is not long for Metallica at all, that's pretty average and even short for some albums like the one I mentioned.

But those songs build up to something or have a complex structure.

This is structured more like a metal pop song (with its constant choruses) and then just keeps going for 6.5 minutes.

 

[Gotchaye]

Nate's model is easily manipulated just like RCP's is, in the end. My bigger beef is his insane systemic poll bias, which assumes that events like 1980 could happen in an election as heavily polled as the US presidency given modern data analysis methods.

I think it's pretty defensible to include a fairly large chance of the polls just all being horribly wrong in your model. Yeah, in many ways we're a lot better at polling now, but you can only be so confident in picking likely voters. I agree that you don't get much out of going too far back when training your model, but by the same token we don't have much of a sample from which we can conclude that likely voter models tend to be pretty good.

 

[BoboBrazil]

if the Democrats don't get the Senate I'm gonna be upset

They better get control of the senate :/ That's the only way we will get progress as a country.

 

[Wowfunhappy]

Happened a few pages back.

The OP did, actually. A few pages back.

Oops, fail on my part, sorry. I didn't realize how fast this thread moved!

 

[benjipwns]

Just watched Lincoln again the other day. For context, my wife has never seen me cry, but I was getting visibly emotional during the vote for the 13th Amendment.

Can someone explain to me how the Republicans of that day have flipped to Democrats? I just find it hard to believe that the modern Republican party blocks desegregation, to this day attempts to stop/disenfranchise African Americans to vote, imprison African Americans at a tremendous rate, and attempt to destroy any social safety nets. How is this the party of Lincoln?

Abraham Lincoln was a racist who thought blacks were inferior to whites, didn't think blacks should necessarily get the right to vote if the states opposed it, wanted them mostly deported rather than further taint the nation, oversaw and promoted war crimes, gained the nomination only because he opposed federal abolition and further expansion of the Slave Power but was not against states upholding slavery where it existed, only broke with his Whig views on the Presidency when it came time to uphold rights for the freedman, had zero plan to deal with the freedman, pursued policies favorable to big business and early corporatist policy and monopolies, began the first federal grants directly to corporations, etc.

As for your question about the Republicans. It's been 150 fucking years. We don't debate the constitutionality of a central bank or grants to build bridges anymore. The Supreme Court doesn't spend most of its time riding circuit and debating one guys (Evans) flour mill patents for two decades. The major campaign issues aren't whether to back the currency with silver to deliberately cause inflation. Nobody even talked about tariffs for almost a hundred years. We've passed all kinds of laws to pretend patronage doesn't exist instead of it being a campaign issue. We have secret ballots. We sadly diminish the fairer sex by making them dirty their hands with voting. (Actual argument against women's suffrage.)

Being surprised that parties ebb and flow in their opposition against one another and reach baffling ideological and platform alignments isn't really something that should be surprising. Especially in a major party dominant system. The major "right" party in Portugal is called the Social Democratic Party.

 

[Pancake Mix]

I'm not American, but I must say that it's hard to compare morality for a man who died over 150 years ago with the standards we have today. People behaved caustically.

You said yourself "it's been 150 fucking years."

 

[Emarv]

Is this the part where we debate Lincoln's virtues and moral failings? I remember college PoliSci courses being horrible when it came to discussing Lincoln.


You know what I'd kill for? A series of recorded conversations from former presidents on Presidents of the past. Hillary's comments on Lincoln during the debate reminded me that I'd love to hear Hillary and Obama really discuss these figures in depth. Think it could be fun. Like those old videos of Olivier and Welles discussing Shakespeare.

 

[DrForester]

What the hell?

 

[RustyNails]

Abraham Lincoln was a racist who thought blacks were inferior to whites, didn't think blacks should necessarily get the right to vote if the states opposed it, wanted them mostly deported rather than further taint the nation, oversaw and promoted war crimes, gained the nomination only because he opposed federal abolition and further expansion of the Slave Power but was not against states upholding slavery where it existed, only broke with his Whig views on the Presidency when it came time to uphold rights for the freedman, had zero plan to deal with the freedman, pursued policies favorable to big business and early corporatist policy and monopolies, began the first federal grants directly to corporations, etc.

As for your question about the Republicans. It's been 150 fucking years. We don't debate the constitutionality of a central bank or grants to build bridges anymore. The Supreme Court doesn't spend most of its time riding circuit and debating one guys (Evans) flour mill patents for two decades. The major campaign issues aren't whether to back the currency with silver to deliberately cause inflation. Nobody even talked about tariffs for almost a hundred years. We've passed all kinds of laws to pretend patronage doesn't exist instead of it being a campaign issue. We have secret ballots. We sadly diminish the fairer sex by making them dirty their hands with voting. (Actual argument against women's suffrage.)

Being surprised that parties ebb and flow in their opposition against one another and reach baffling ideological and platform alignments isn't really something that should be surprising. Especially in a major party dominant system. The major "right" party in Portugal is called the Social Democratic Party.

I thought Lincoln left most of his regressive views on blacks and slavery by his 2nd term. If he was a committed racist, why would he endorse voting rights for blacks?

What the hell?

Read the article.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

What the hell?

Read it.

 

[benjipwns]

I'm not American, but I must say that it's hard to compare morality for a man who died over 150 years ago with the standards we have today. People behaved caustically.

You said yourself "it's been 150 fucking years."

Is this the part where we debate Lincoln's virtues and moral failings?

He asked how it was the Party of Lincoln. The GOP and its fellow travelers still regularly endorse corporatism, cronyism, political corruption, war crimes and deporting any undesirables (ideally darkies for the latter two because progress).

I thought Lincoln left most of his regressive views on blacks and slavery by his 2nd term. If he was a committed racist, why would he endorse voting rights for blacks?

His Reconstruction plan didn't include black suffrage, and he only came to support it for those who served or met some kind of educational benchmark. (Which ironically is how some states blocked the vote.)

Lincoln was never a Radical Republican and had already begun to oppose their post-war plans, he wanted to reunite the Union and his Reconstruction plan included keeping whites in power in the South to make that reunification easier. Grant wasn't a Radical either. They had far outsized power in the Senate because of the war.

 

[Hazmat]

What the hell?

Click the story.

 

[Officerrob]

NY Times on the state of the race post-Comeygate

Highlights:

• Clinton’s lead over Trump has contracted modestly, but Clinton is still a safe bet to win
• The Comey news has caused Mrs. Clinton’s most casual supporters to drift away.
• Optimism about gaining ground in places like OH and IA are fading
• The Comey news has potentially hurt Democrats in their bid to gain the Senate
• NC is essentially Safe D — Democratic and Republican internal polling has Clinton ahead.
  [*]Trump has no chance to win PA, CO, VA, or NH.
• Wisconsin Senate is getting closer.

I think 300+ EVs for Hillary is all but guaranteed, we just need to make sure to get the Senate too. Even if it's a 50-50 tie I think that would be enough to get a Supreme Court justice (perhaps I'm being too naive or optimistic but I really don't think the Republicans would block Garland from the minority, they have to know how bad that would look after months of "Well the next president should decide" and there are enough senators like Flake, Graham and Collins in the party to make it happen without nuking it) and immigration reform (Hillary said she has 60 votes for it right now). Maybe some big tax/infrastructure deal with Ryan would make for a pretty productive 100 days I think.

This means the race is over

 

[border]

Looking forward to election night. A local movie theatre will be showing results on their big screen with a hopefully sizable crowd in attendance to cheer or cry at the final tally.

At what point in the evening can I be relatively sure of a Clinton win? It looks like Florida is going to be a nail-biter, so assuming that stays up in the air until late in the night, what other states should I look to as a tipping point? If North Carolina tilts to Clinton early (it looks as though it might), can I breathe easy?

 

[watershed]

I thought Lincoln left most of his regressive views on blacks and slavery by his 2nd term. If he was a committed racist, why would he endorse voting rights for blacks?

Lincoln is complicated. Even his racism, and he was definitely racist, changed over time and he always believed that black Americans could do just as well as white Americans if they grew up with the same advantages. But his political views on slavery, emancipation, and civils rights definitely changed over time.

 

[Emarv]

Looking forward to election night. A local movie theatre will be showing results on their big screen with a hopefully sizable crowd in attendance to cheer or cry at the final tally.

At what point in the evening can I be relatively sure of a Clinton win? It looks like Florida is going to be a nail-biter, so assuming that stays up in the air until late in the night, what other states should I look to as a tipping point? If North Carolina tilts to Clinton early (it looks as though it might), can I breathe easy?

Essentially yeah. Once we see clear leads in NC, NH and PA, the race is over. Everything is just icing on top. The networks will still wait to call it until after the West Coast closes.

 

[kess]

Looking forward to election night. A local movie theatre will be showing results on their big screen with a hopefully sizable crowd in attendance to cheer or cry at the final tally.

This is either going to be the greatest thing ever, or a disaster of unparalleled proportions

 

[Holmes]

At what point in the evening can I be relatively sure of a Clinton win? It looks like Florida is going to be a nail-biter, so assuming that stays up in the air until late in the night, what other states should I look to as a tipping point? If North Carolina tilts to Clinton early (it looks as though it might), can I breathe easy?

Absolutely. But once Pennsylvania and New Hampshire are called (which should be before North Carolina), you'll be good. And if Virginia is called early too, it's all good. It usually counts slowly and the Republican areas first, so it always looks like Republicans have a lead until NoVA really starts coming in.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Samantha Bee brings up Trump's prior war against telepromters.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7LFkN7QGp2c

 

[benjipwns]

Essentially yeah. Once we see clear leads in NC, NH and PA, the race is over. Everything is just icing on top. The networks will still wait to call it until after the West Coast closes.

I'd wait until Karl Rove allows it.

 

[metalslimer]

I'm not going to lie I would get some sweet schadenfreude watching a theatre full of hardcore Trump supporters watch him lose. I already have my alcohol for either way things go.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

Looking forward to election night. A local movie theatre will be showing results on their big screen with a hopefully sizable crowd in attendance to cheer or cry at the final tally.

At what point in the evening can I be relatively sure of a Clinton win? It looks like Florida is going to be a nail-biter, so assuming that stays up in the air until late in the night, what other states should I look to as a tipping point? If North Carolina tilts to Clinton early (it looks as though it might), can I breathe easy?

Depending on your area...that could be a disaster lol.

 

[Iolo]

Essentially yeah. Once we see clear leads in NC, NH and PA, the race is over. Everything is just icing on top. The networks will still wait to call it until after the West Coast closes.

Exactly the states I was thinking. Essentially once we verify there is no systemic polling error™ (assuming no polling surprises in the next week), then we are ok. In 2008 once Obama won PA it was over for me.

I'm sure we will discuss various paths and call times over the next week ad nauseum.

 

[Emarv]

I'd wait until Karl Rove allows it.

Karl Rove is already pre-gaming for election night.

Seriously though, Fox News is gonna be fascinating on election night. Every major election anchor will have to walk the finest of lines between telling the truth about Trump's blowout but not going too far to offend their audience.

 

[RastaMentality]

Depending on your area...that could be a disaster lol.

it'd make for a great viral twitter video though.

 

[border]

This is either going to be the greatest thing ever, or a disaster of unparalleled proportions

Depending on your area...that could be a disaster lol.

I live in Florida. The same theatre aired all three debates for public viewing, and the audience was overwhelmingly Democrat. It's in a pretty liberal neighborhood known for being LGBT-oriented. So nobody is going to start fights, but if Clinton loses I suspect there will be lots of silence and hyperventilaiting.

We haven't had this since 2008, when a different local theatre aired election results. It was so cool watching Obama get voted in with a big, excited crowd in the room. I hope things go as well next Tuesday.

 

[kess]

So... it's finally November!!

I have a nagging feeling this is going to be a big news day. No way this FBI weirdness ends here.

 

[wumster3000]

Lincoln is complicated. Even his racism, and he was definitely racist, changed over time and he always believed that black Americans could do just as well as white Americans if they grew up with the same advantages. But his political views on slavery, emancipation, and civils rights definitely changed over time.

I guess because he didn't give two shits about the slaves. His main reason for sending General Sherman to rip the South apart was to preserve the Union. He didn't care if it freed slaves. He wanted to send slaves to Central America. He didn't think blacks should have the same rights as whites. The guy was not what history made him out to be.

 

[AntraxSuicide]

Karl Rove is already pre-gaming for election night.

Seriously though, Fox News is gonna be fascinating on election night. Every major election anchor will have to walk the finest of lines between telling the truth about Trump's blowout but not going too far to offend their audience.

I don't think Rove will be the right kind of salty here. He'll be throwing shade at the GOP for nominating an idiot without handling him. Rove seems like the type who finds the Trump campaign embarrassing, not for their offensive rhetoric, but for their poor strategy.

Rove knows how to manage a moron and get him to win the White House. He looks down on the current campaign that can't do what he did.

 

[User 463088]

For those worried about the hidden Trump vote, here's an interesting article.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2016/10/31/hidden-white-working-class-voters/

tl;dr

Basically, even if we increase non-college white turnout by 22 points from 2012, Hillary still manages a win 293-245. (She even loses PA and WI in this scenario, but still wins the election.)

 

[border]

I'd wait until Karl Rove allows it.

Hasn't Rove pretty much already said it's in the bag for Clinton?

 

[Debirudog]

What the hell?

The content is what matters in this case and not the headline.

 

[benjipwns]

So... it's finally November!!

I have a nagging feeling this is going to be a big news day.

Of course it is, Jaguar Johnson is being interviewed on Fox Business' Kennedy.

Then Evan (who has two mommies and doesn't have a girlfriend) on Wednesday and Jill on Thursday.

 

[Suikoguy]

I don't think Rove will be the right kind of salty here. He'll be throwing shade at the GOP for nominating an idiot without handling him. Rove seems like the type who finds the Trump campaign embarrassing, not for their offensive rhetoric, but for their poor strategy.

Rove knows how to manage a moron and get him to win the White House. He looks down on the current campaign that can't do what he did.

Don't know how you can manage a severe narcissist...
Bush was very malleable, which is what made that possible, and also made him one of the worst presidents due to his VP and other factors.

 

[Amir0x]

God i am so happy my job just cancelled a business trip scheduled for election day. Now i get to hang out on GAF and drink tears

Would have felt weird being around for this whole ride yet having to miss all the discussion after i voted

 

[border]

Essentially yeah. Once we see clear leads in NC, NH and PA, the race is over. Everything is just icing on top. The networks will still wait to call it until after the West Coast closes.

Why are the results from New Hampshire important at all? Isn't that state pretty much solid blue?

Will the networks really wait for the West Coast to declare a winner? I don't recall it taking that long in previous years.

 

[Basileus777]

I don't think Rove will be the right kind of salty here. He'll be throwing shade at the GOP for nominating an idiot without handling him. Rove seems like the type who finds the Trump campaign embarrassing, not for their offensive rhetoric, but for their poor strategy.

Rove knows how to manage a moron and get him to win the White House. He looks down on the current campaign that can't do what he did.

Rove has already publicly conceded that Trump is going to lose.

 

[Emarv]

I don't think Rove will be the right kind of salty here. He'll be throwing shade at the GOP for nominating an idiot without handling him. Rove seems like the type who finds the Trump campaign embarrassing, not for their offensive rhetoric, but for their poor strategy.

Rove knows how to manage a moron and get him to win the White House. He looks down on the current campaign that can't do what he did.

Sorry, that's what I was trying to get at. Rove's basically on record that Trump is an idiot who can't focus on anything and had no strategy. Literally every "major" Fox player understands trump is trash. I'd even include Bill and F&F. Hannity in my mind seems like the only true believer, outside of some B-tier anchors/pundits.

Rove, Megyn, Wallace, Shep, Baier, etc. Everyone you'd normally see on election night know exactly how this will go and why it will. I was joking Rove's drinking because he knows it's gonna be a disaster for his party and gonna be a long night of losses.

 

[BoboBrazil]

For those worried about the hidden Trump vote, here's an interesting article.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2016/10/31/hidden-white-working-class-voters/

tl;dr

Basically, even if we increase non-college white turnout by 22 points from 2012, Hillary still manages a win 293-245. (She even loses PA and WI in this scenario, but still wins the election.)

It's not enough that she wins. Dems also need to control the Senate.

 

[kess]

Of course it is, Jaguar Johnson is being interviewed on Fox Business' Kennedy.

Then Evan (who has two mommies and doesn't have a girlfriend) on Wednesday and Jill on Thursday.

If I watched Gary Johnson interviews I'd be justifiably cynical too