shadowsdarknes
Member
Joe Biden will be here in Tampa tomorrow.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
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This is genuinely concerning.
Tal Shiar Agent
Member
Republican talking heads get a gold medal in avoiding the question.
metalslimer
Member
Its what they do best.
Manmademan
Member
It's early and I may be reading this incorrectly so someone correct me if I'm off base.
They're basing a drop in AA turnout on a percentage decline in ballots vs 2012. 25% of early ballots in 2012 vs 16% today.
Didn't the Latino early vote in Florida spike 99% compared to 2012?
Wouldn't doubling the amount of Latinos submitting ballots drop the percentage of the AA vote even if the actual number of votes didn't change?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Yes, but the ratio of black to white votes would remain the same if that were the case. It isn't. Not to mention the early-day voting in person is just a straight up white increase. The black vote has definitely declined relative to the white vote, we can say that with confidence. Question is whether the Latin(o/a) vote makes up for it.
Officerrob
Banned
ABC/WashPo tracking poll was trash when it showed Hillary +12, and it's trash now. Tracking polls are a mistake
Maybe I did read somewhere that the AA vote isn't performing relative to how well the Latino and white vote is doing.
The said whoever these black people are who aren't voting if they want to stay home that's on them. If they want to risk the alternative for whatever reason they have no right to bitch if it came to fruition.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Black voting is down in OH, NC too. It is concerning for HRC campaign.
It was expected to be down. That's why I like Cohn's sienna polls. He said nothing he's seen in North Carolina is surprising. And his Florida poll has trump ahead. I'm inclined to believe now based on EV.
This is why I said yesterday I was legitimately curious about PA and MI.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Just doing some quick maths, if on-the-day voting shows the same proportional adjustment as early in-person voting, then Clinton loses Florida. Vote-by-mail and she wins it by basically the same as 2012. So I think Florida probably hangs pretty finely in the balance.
Shouldn't matter, though. I think she wins without Florida. I don't think the Senate is going blue, though.
Shouldn't matter, though. I think she wins without Florida. I don't think the Senate is going blue, though.
metalslimer
Member
Florida and Ohio going to the losing campaign would certainly be interesting. Unless something major happens Ohio seems to be slipping away. I still think she takes Florida though. I don't necessarily believe that an increase in white turnout is automatically that great for trump. I need to see the demographic breakdown.
Yeah, exactly this. Can people really see Trump winning the White Women vote? Even the White non-college educated women vote is debatable, and white college educated men aren't going to be voting for him in droves. And that's a fairly simplistic breakdown... What about white Jewish vote, for instance?
cartoon_soldier
Member
Yes, but Clinton campaign just hasn't made that OTG black community investment. They are spending too much money on Florida TV.
Doc Holliday
SPOILER: Columbus finds America
Sheesh does GAF need David Plouffe himself to come and calm everyone down?
That said an N word tape would be perfect right about now lol
Oh and F you Comey!
That said an N word tape would be perfect right about now lol
Oh and F you Comey!
shinra-bansho
Member
This thread is like the world's worst rollercoaster, lol.
Hoping for NV, PA, WI and NH to deliver.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
What kev says.
Seriously? God dammit..... what revelations did I miss?
Lord Frieza
Member
Super disappointing that it looks like we could lose Florida. I know it's not needed to actually win, but that's a decent chunk of the electorate for the final spread.
metalslimer
Member
Sure but I was just saying it's not necessarily disastrous in terms of the actual percentage.
🙄🙄🙄. God, some of you drive-by FUDers.
Any specific reason why? Upshot has a 59% chance of Dems taking it, and, yes, that's down about 10% on the past week or 2, but still better than it was beginning September. Indeed, September 26th, it was 36% chance of going blue.
No, that's true. And the liberal elite bastions of NC turning out are not bad either.
If you just looked at Sienna and Selzer (who uses a 2004 style electorate) I wonder what you'd see. She probably still wins comfortably but Ohio is off the table by a lot.
If you just looked at Sienna and Selzer (who uses a 2004 style electorate) I wonder what you'd see. She probably still wins comfortably but Ohio is off the table by a lot.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Nothing, youre just reading random prople say stuff because its 8:00 AM EST and that meane that all is lost.
Officerrob
Banned
It's not gone yet, but Bayh is slipping and Ayotte has bounced back
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Now this should be illegal and a Federal intervention should be instant to restor transportation before election day.
excelsiorlef
Member
Lord Frieza
Member
True, everyone is getting ahead of themselves, but those early voting numbers for FL are really disappointing I think. I thought FL was a pretty certain thing really, since Clinton almost always was polling ahead and there's the significant Latino population, but this depressed minority turnout there is a real bummer. Hopefully, it'll pick up this week and election day itself will have a great turnout, but since this seems to be a problem in multiple states, it's not looking optimistic.
I think women, college educated whites and the Hispanic vote will push Clinton well over the top. Hopefully it's enough for the downballot too.
shinra-bansho
Member
So this is how liberty dies... with thunderous bedwetting.
I don't get this though. Is it backwards? Vote by mail is way whiter than in person.
And overall democratic registrants seem to be doing better than 2012 Visavis republicans so why is ethnic breakout so critical when white people could be breaking more evenly? Shouldn't party Id matter more? Though obviously NPA is a guess.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
The big increases in early voting favors Trump.
GoldenEye 007
Member
If blacks aren't motivated by Trump's rhetoric for the last year and a half plus his history, I don't know what to say. Even if Clinton isn't perfect, she's clearly the better option and it isn't close.
To just stay home is an idiotic decision.
To just stay home is an idiotic decision.
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
Because...?
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