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[Chumly]

DA HELL

SEND BAMS TO FL

Aren't democrats up in percentages for registered democrats voting compared to 2012 in Florida? What's the difference then? More white people are voting for Hillary?

 

[Kusagari]

I really wouldn't be surprised at this point if taking the senate comes down to Ross.

 

[Barzul]

Booker is an opportunist charter school supporting loser.

Nah it won't be him.

 

[Wilsongt]

Trey Gowdy's voice makes me physically ill.

 

[PBY]

I think we all subconsciously know 2020 will be bleak for her if she's Pres. Even HW could only ride Saint Reagan's coat tails for 4 years. That's why the Senate and ultimately SCOTUS is so damn important.

She's not going to be a two term pres.

But we can worry about 2020 later.

 

[Slayven]

Do wish Hillary and crew had hammered Donald on the Central Park 5 more

 

[bangbang i'm a timpani]

Do wish Hillary and crew had hammered Donald on the Central Park 5 more

he can just scream super predators though

 

[metalslimer]

She's not going to be a two term pres.

But we can worry about 2020 later.

OH my god go to bed.

 

[maquiladora]

Any polls due soon? Need polls.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I think we all subconsciously know 2020 will be bleak for her if she's Pres. Even HW could only ride Saint Reagan's coat tails for 4 years. That's why the Senate and ultimately SCOTUS is so damn important.

She's not going to be a two term pres.
But we can worry about 2020 later.

Make me a 2020 map where she loses. Especially if NC is now in the fold of lean blue states.

 

[Slayven]

Has there ever been a prez that refused to run for relection? If so how did the party handle that?

he can just scream super predators though

Out of context quote vs full page ad?

 

[Ether_Snake]

Trump would probably move the capital to Florida. Bet if he was asked he'd say he might do it.

 

[royalan]

Spare you what? That it's silly to suggest you had some idea the clinton campaign didn't? Do you think Robbie mook woke up one day in April and was like, "you know, I don't think we care too much about black people," and John podesta, after tweeting his latest conspiracy theory about UFOs, said, "or young people!"?

You gotta play the hand your dealt and hrc was never going to ignite some great interest in young people and she certainly wasn't going to match the turnout in the AA community of obama.

I don't really know what they should do differently. This is the candidate they have.

The same is true for young people. She's tried with the college stuff and some of the joint proposals with sanders but it's just never going to happen. She is a traditional candidate without the pizazz!

I'm not angry at Hillary. Hillary's getting about as much black support as an old white lady coul right now. I'm angry at Barack, because he has spent more time campaigning for the soft Republican vote than the vote of his own community. And now here we are.

 

[Barzul]

Obama was the first black major party nominee and had a get out to vote operation that was unprecedented in its scale. Let's not fool ourselves that Hilary was ever going to get his share of the black vote which was historic. I did however expect her to be a lot closer, she just has so much political baggage (crime bill, super predators, emails) that made her unappealing to millennial black voters and a lot of us galvanized around Bernie. Debates helped her a whole lot to seem more relatable but I don't think it was enough. People just don't care enough for her I guess.

 

[GurgleBot20]

Has there ever been a prez that refused to run for relection? If so how did the party handle that?

LBJ didn't run for reelection and the party handled it poorly, but there was also Vietnam that contributed to that.

 

[nature boy]

Aren't democrats up in percentages for registered democrats voting compared to 2012 in Florida? What's the difference then? More white people are voting for Hillary?

Dunno if it's up (might be up with Latinos), but:

daniel a. smith
‏@electionsmith
Why is early voting so important in FL? In '12, 59% of Ds voted EIP or VBM. A higher share of Rs voted on election day than Ds.
@JoyAnnReid

and

Total Ballots cast: 4,077.521

Total Vote By Mail: 2,054,519 (50.4%)

Total Early Vote: 2,023,002 (49.6%)

Republicans: 1,648,603 (40.4%)

Democrats: 1,632,677 (40.0%)

NPA: 769,241 (19.6%)

Total Margin: GOP +0.39%

http://steveschale.com


Also from Schale:

The electorate continues to get more diverse. Through the Sunday vote, Hispanics are now 13.5% of the votes so far, with Black voters (African American and Caribbean) at 11. White is down to 70, and has trended down from nearly 80% when in-person early voting started. I have no doubt at this point that the electorate in 2016 will end up more diverse than 2012.

I also don’t expect the Black share of vote to match 2012. That was a historic moment. But I do expect the Black share of vote to approach its registration share (13.9%). In my models, which have her winning, I expect it to land at 13%, so anything north of this is positive.

On the flip-side, Hispanics, particularly low propensity Democratic and NPA Hispanics, are turning out. So far, 50% of Hispanic Democrats, and 55% of Hispanic NPAs who have voted are low propensity voters, which I define as voters who either have no voting history, or have voted in just one of the last three elections. And keep in mind, Hispanic registration grew by 121K voters in just the ten weeks after August 1.

Democrats now have a low propensity voter advantage of 65,000.

Moreover, there is something in Dade that I have been wondering about. Right now, 153K Hispanics have voted, many of whom are people who surely fall into Rubio’s turnout universe. But how many will vote for Rubio, but Clinton? In other words, as Rubio is turning out Miami Republicans, for his own campaign, is he also inadvertently helping Clinton. In a lot of polling I’ve seen in South Florida, there are areas where the difference between the Rubio and Clinton margins are as much as 20 points. How many of those are Miami Hispanic Republicans? I suspect it is more than a few.

Another interesting point that a very smart observer mentioned to me yesterday: more traditional Election Day Republicans are voting early than Election Day Democrats. According to the file I use, about 620,000 people who have voted early already are voters who in 2012 voted on Election Day. In other words, in the absurd terms of today’s politics – these are early voters that the parties are “cannibalizing” from their own Election Day turnout.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

IPSOS is still Hillary +6 in the four-way and +5 in the two-way

 

[PBY]

Make me a 2020 map where she loses. Especially if NC is now in the fold of lean blue states.

She's be running -5 against any other R candidate.

But I don't think we need to freak about 2020 right now.

 

[Y2Kev]

Has there ever been a prez that refused to run for relection? If so how did the party handle that?



Out of context quote vs full page ad?

Um LBJ

And the Democratic Party almost exploded. Well, did explode.

 

[Abinash117]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-coalition-hispanic-support-is-up-black-turnout-is-down/

Is an article about the low black turnout; it compares unchanged voting rules in some counties from 2012 and now. Hispanic and Asian turnout is up which is the good news.

It appears that the campaign might know this and it is why they are campaign much harder now.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

She's be running -5 against any other R candidate.

But I don't think we need to freak about 2020 right now.

Make me a map

Make a Republican hit 270

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

She's be running -5 against any other R candidate.

But I don't think we need to freak about 2020 right now.

Can we not do the go back in time thing and extrapolate elections based on hypothetical match ups.

 

[Y2Kev]

Dunno if it's up (might be up with Latinos), but:



and


http://steveschale.com

Yeah so no one knows what to make if NPA voters.

 

[Loudninja]

Shit I am worry about 2030

 

[Random17]

My biggest worry is that the white college educated vote is a temporary bonus to Clinton; it disappears against any reasonable Republican, and by that I mean anyone who isn't Trump or a total idiot like Rubio.

That's the biggest takeaway here; Trump may have slandered the GOP, but if black turnout is down, and with Hispanics still relatively insignificant then a small change in the white vote will flip New Hampshire, Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina. Check out the 538 voter model demographic thing. Millennials are either totally useless or worse; become progressively more 3rd party/ right wing orientated due to never having experienced a GOP president; a reactionary response.

Worrying about 2020 is important. Progress from 2008 to 2020 won't matter the second a Republican walks into office. We have been all in ever since the Tea Party became a thing.

 

[Slayven]

Make me a map

Make a Republican hit 270

I love that this is Poligaf's version of "come at me bro"

 

[Ether_Snake]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-coalition-hispanic-support-is-up-black-turnout-is-down/

Is an article about the low black turnout; it compares unchanged voting rules in some counties from 2012 and now. Hispanic and Asian turnout is up which is the good news.

It appears that the campaign might know this and it is why they are campaign much harder now.

I think Hillary's camp didn't focus on getting AA support enough because they thought in the current context it would scare away white voters which they desperately need. I blame Obama for not doing more on that end, but that's not surprising.

 

[sphagnum]

Has there ever been a prez that refused to run for relection? If so how did the party handle that?

Off the top of my head, LBJ dropped out early due to McCarthy and RFK's support. RFK then got shot and the Dems split because of Wallace. Nixon won.

 

[codhand]

She's be running -5 against any other R candidate.

But I don't think we need to freak about 2020 right now.

your concern trolling has been bar none this cycle

 

[metalslimer]

She's be running -5 against any other R candidate.

But I don't think we need to freak about 2020 right now.

You already are. Donate or do some GOTV efforts if you are this worried.

This election more than any other has convinced me Dems will be perpetual losers forever

 

[Loudninja]

I think Hillary's camp didn't focus on getting AA support enough because they thought in the current context it would scare away white voters which they desperately need. I blame Obama for not doing more on that end, but that's not surprising.

What?

 

[johnny956]

I'm not angry at Hillary. Hillary's getting about as much black support as an old white lady coul right now. I'm angry at Barack, because he has spent more time campaigning for the soft Republican vote than the vote of his own community. And now here we are.

Yea she's getting the best vote she can get but the democrats are doing nothing in the way of appealing to black voters besides saying Trump will be worse. It's already bad for them right now so fear can only do so much. She needed to actually go into detail how it's going to get better. It's too late at this point to sway the black turnout signifantly. Gotv might move the percentage a bit but not close to 2012 levels. Damage is done and they can just hope substantial turnout for hispanics is enough to offset it

 

[PBY]

your concern trolling has been bar none this cycle

I'm really not.


I'm just really pessimistic about this country. My parents are Cuban and they just voted for Trump, feel Iike maybe I'm too close to some of this.

 

[Amir0x]

God the last week of PoliGAF before an election is always the worst. A buncha headless chickens lol

 

[Slayven]

Off the top of my head, LBJ dropped out early due to McCarthy and RFK's support. RFK then got shot and the Dems split because of Wallace. Nixon won.

Very interesting. Maybe a new up and comer will appear in 4 years and Hillary will step out the way

 

[shinra-bansho]

Headless chickens. Piss everywhere. Trash Silver. Quite the gruesome scene.

Maybe she'll keel over during term one. Problem solved.

 

[Loudninja]

God the last week of PoliGAF before an election is always the worst. A buncha headless chickens lol

God I had horrible flashbacks.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I love that this is Poligaf's version of "come at me bro"

I can't make a map for the GOP where they win without handing them NH for whatever reason. But if the Democrats hold NC, then NH doesn't matter.

or

Both are still Dem wins in 2020. There are too many large, relatively safe Democrat states. The GOP would have to make major ground and run an all star campaign to even have a chance, and they just don't have the candidates to do that anymore.

 

[Hasphat'sAnts]

Aren't democrats up in percentages for registered democrats voting compared to 2012 in Florida? What's the difference then? More white people are voting for Hillary?

Haven't checked the numbers but that's the most logical conclusion.

Mittens won the white vote by historical margins whereas Cheeto Jesus is not.

 

[Random17]

I can't make a map for the GOP where they win without handing them NH for whatever reason. But if the Democrats hold NC, then NH doesn't matter.



or



Both are still Dem wins in 2020.

The problem with these maps is that they have no imagination. Who here in 2012 would have predicted a 6 point swing in Iowa to the GOP? The beginnings of a long term swing in Ohio? North Carolina suddenly becoming safer Dem than Florida?

I can absolutely see parts of the rural North becoming interestingly more GOP friendly, especially if rurality/ white small towns continue to decay.

A lot of Clinton's advantages with educated whites disappear with a nonidiotic GOP candidate. That's game set and match in the Rust belt and Northern states, imo in 2020.

 

[Protein]

Hello darkness my old friend.

 

[Slayven]

I can't make a map for the GOP where they win without handing them NH for whatever reason. But if the Democrats hold NC, then NH doesn't matter.



or



Both are still Dem wins in 2020. There are too many large, relatively safe Democrat states. The GOP would have to make major ground and run an all star campaign to even have a chance, and they just don't have the candidates to do that anymore.

If there was a tool that allowed you to do individual counties, you guys would go insane

 

[Amir0x]

God I had horrible flashbacks.

In 2008 it was even kind of insufferable despite how large Obamas lead was. But 2012... holy shit. The number of times that final RCP poll average was quoted. And look at the final result! Wasnt close!

Look right now we know we got the presidency. We tryin to get to 50 or 51 in the Senate. That i think legitimately deserves our bedwetting.

Headless chickens. Piss everywhere. Trash Silver. Quite the gruesome scene.

Maybe she'll keel over during term one. Problem solved.

If we were painting a picture of PoliGAF in its final week, it would be the third panel of a Hieronymous Bosch painting.

 

[Kusagari]

I think any win in 2020 for the GOP would have to be predicated on something like WI flipping.

 

[Y2Kev]

Steve schale is a little comforting. He says the electorate will be more diverse than 2012 due to increased Latino participation. White EV composition is down to 70% down 10 points from the start. And Hispanic turnout is up and growing. He expects blacks to be 13% which is not what obama had but we don't need it.

 

[Hopfrog]

Aren't there numbers somewhere showing that Clinton's favorability actually goes up when she is in office instead of campaigning? And nobody knows how the next four years are going to go so talking about Hillary losing in 2020 or stepping aside is really premature.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Make me a map

Make a Republican hit 270

Someone posted an article above you that basically answered your question. There's a huge chunk of the electorate voting Clinton and then voting Rubio - that is, not-Trump Latinx Republicans. The black vote is likely going to decline from 2012 onwards and the Latinx vote rise, but treating the Latinx vote like the black vote is a big mistake when it has a big history of involvement with the Republican party and has been pretty close as recently as 8 years back (and Republicans don't need to win it anyway, they just need to do well). If the Republicans can get a non "build the wall" candidate through the primaries and start to recover some of their historic Latinx vote, and the black vote continues to decline, then Clinton could very easily lose 2020.

It really depends on whatever the fuck happens structurally in the Republican party between now and the next election.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Steve schale is a little comforting. He says the electorate will be more diverse than 2012 due to increased Latino participation. White EV composition is down to 70% down 10 points from the start. And Hispanic turnout is up and growing. He expects blacks to be 13% which is not what obama had but we don't need it.

The counteract to lower AA turnout for HRC is:

Hispanics in FL.
College Educated Whites in NC.

There is no counteract in Ohio though

 

[nature boy]

Fuckin' Rassss is drunk:

One week before Election Day, the race for the presidency is all tied up.

The latest Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey finds Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump each with 44% support among Likely U.S. Voters. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson has five percent (5%) of the vote, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein earns two percent (2%). Another two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Yesterday, it was Clinton 45%, Trump 42%, but the two were with 45% apiece on Friday. Two out of the three nights in the latest survey follow FBI Director James Comey’s announcement on Friday that his agency is reopening the investigation of Clinton’s handling of classified information after the discovery of tens of thousands of previously unseen private e-mails.

 

[Slayven]

Steve schale is a little comforting. He says the electorate will be more diverse than 2012 due to increased Latino participation. White EV composition is down to 70% down 10 points from the start. And Hispanic turnout is up and growing. He expects blacks to be 13% which is not what obama had but we don't need it.

I just want it to be over, not having to go work on a plantation January 1st would be a bonus