Lord Frieza
Member
Based on what?
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Based on what?
metalslimer
Member
OK now this is bullshit.
thestopsign
Member
Someone said they would suspend their strike election day.
I heard that is not quite guaranteed
There's that and there's also the fact that no strike has lasted longer than a week. Meaning it would be a record length strike in Philly if it is still occurring during the 8th of November.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I was saying we'll probably see a 2004-looking electorate (turnout wise rather than demographically) ages ago and y'all were saying that there was no way and she'd definitely retain the Obama coalition. I think we're see pretty clear, tangible indicators that isn't the case.
But... why worry? Even with 2004-style turnouts per demographic, she still wins because the actual demographic balance itself has changed. Even if black American voters turn up like they did for Kerry, that's more votes than Kerry got because there are more black Americans. And when you look at how that plays out, I just don't see how Trump gets past 266. Even if Clinton does lose Florida... well, looks like it'll be at worse a cautionary tale for future Democratic primary voters not to pick shitty candidates. Trumpverse ain't happening.
Now panic about the Senate.
What the hell ?
Starting to be legitimately worried. Don't fuck this up America
I hope the lead built up in early voting will be enough to fend off that orange turd.
Yeah, I've been sounding the alarm on this for months. Millennials are checked out, but black millennials are in particular. At a time when young black people are pissed at even Barack Obama for pussyfooting around the issue of police brutality, the overwhelming vibe is "fuck them both."
Black outreach among Dems was great in the primaries... Then fell completely off in the general. Where have the Obama's been?
Luckily the numbers aren't close here in PA. Because Dems are going to feel the drop off in Philly.
I'm not going to pretend I'm an expert but Adam was in here yesterday pointing out how those Florida NPAs skew heavily younger and latino which favors dems.
I think many blacks feel like Colin Kaepernick;
http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...donald-trump-hillary-clinton-debate/91181232/
Essentially they're both the same or some shit...
Lord Frieza
Member
OH being basically out of play, FL potentially being very close, and AZ not actually flipping are bummers. Not 'bed-wetting' since I know a Hillary victory chance is still high at the end of the day even without those states (anyone who has seen my posting this cycle knows I'm the anti-bed wetter), but I was really hoping for as big a win as possible, and that's 58 electorate points right there.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
Because it's mostly angry white people in big numbers. Been saying Trump has high chances of winning because no matter what people say about demographics there is a lot more white people, and the last minute "ah why not" voters will come out in greater number still on November 8th.
People talk about ground game but this election is different, for all the energy/money Hillary's camp has to spend to drag people out to vote, angry and "change" people don't need to be reached at all they just go.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
You have to compare them to what they were last time - I'm looking at the changes. Vote by mail is very white now, but it was last time, and it is slightly less white now - so if that same shift (slightly less white voters overall) repeated in on-the-day voting, Clinton would win. Early voting, though, is more white than it was last time, and so the reverse.
Race might not be critical, and as I said, this is back of envelope stuff, but it gives a reasonable amount of credibility to the argument that this is 2004, not 2008 or 2012. It's just a better 2004 in a world where Florida doesn't suck as much.
Lord Frieza
Member
Where are you getting that all the whites coming out are Trump supporters and angry? You realize not all whites support Trump, right?
gutter_trash
Banned
Lawn signs and crowd sizes at rallies only show the loud minority appearing to be larger.
The true silent majority are now women and visible minorities.
Just relax. It's better when crab is here and people are doing math vs three posts of I told you so (count em).
Finale Fireworker
Member
[*extremely white campaign aide voice*]
How can we motivate black voters with only seven days left? Perhaps some sort of "educational rap" or "Madea Goes to the Polls"?
(the group murmurs indecisively)
There must be somebody here who has been paying attention to what black people care about!
(the group all makes the nervous emoji face 😬
How can we motivate black voters with only seven days left? Perhaps some sort of "educational rap" or "Madea Goes to the Polls"?
(the group murmurs indecisively)
There must be somebody here who has been paying attention to what black people care about!
(the group all makes the nervous emoji face 😬
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Yeah, Nevada, and I'm being generous there.
A Trump wins requires basically a complete left-field haymaker out of nowhere - flipping Michigan or something.
Yeah that seems unrealistic based on early voting.
shinra-bansho
Member
Angry shy enthused silent Trump supporters. Data and effective operations redundant.
She should get Mary J Blige to sing to her again.
She should get Mary J Blige to sing to her again.
It's explicitly not true.
I don't you why people keep saying that. It's also not true. Our last strike in 2009 was six days, but we've had plenty of longer ones. I think the average length historically is 20 days or something.
All that said, I think there will be significant pressure to get a deal done quickly this time, for a bunch of reasons.
Lord Frieza
Member
Are you just talking about Florida, or are you saying the whole electorate could look like 2004, because that's super disappointing to say the least.
I am relax
Adam posted this :
Pence-Youngwood, PA
Shiiitttt Ne-yo?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I don't mean the electorate looks like 2004 as in it is x% white, y% black, z% Latinx. I mean that: white people will have x% turnout like they did in 2004, and black people will have y% turnout like they did in 2004 (Latinx might do better than 2004, at least, which is a big relief). That still means the electorate will be e.g. more black than 2004 because there are relatively more black people and less white people so even though turnout is the same, composition is different. But I don't think turnout rates will look like 2008 or 2012, which is what a lot of people have been taking as their base consideration - I think there will be noticeably less black voters than either 2008 or 2012.
Bummer.
This isn't fucking "I told you so". This is angering. Because I've been on the ground here in Philly, particularly trying to shore up the black millennial vote. So spare me. And it's been perplexing that so little attention has been paid to this since the primaries.
There's something going on in the black community. There's a movement happening, but behind it is how demoralized black people feel right now and how increasingly black people feel like the system doesn't give a fuck about us, so fuck who wins.
And somehow Barack thought he could give a single speech on his legacy and that's it? Fucking depressing.
Hillary is still winning, but it won't be with the help of the black vote, and that's sad to me.
There's something going on in the black community. There's a movement happening, but behind it is how demoralized black people feel right now and how increasingly black people feel like the system doesn't give a fuck about us, so fuck who wins.
And somehow Barack thought he could give a single speech on his legacy and that's it? Fucking depressing.
Hillary is still winning, but it won't be with the help of the black vote, and that's sad to me.
Lord Frieza
Member
Disappointing
Hillary losses Ohio, Iowa, gains North Carolina from 2012. Senate 51-49. Popular margin will be 5 points, modest house gain but nothing special.
You guys need to chill.
Edit: I think Trump's message about "why haven't things been improving in the last thirty years" might actually be resonating with some folks. Going to be a real chance of a change for the sake of change campaigning in 2020 I think. I doubt Hillary gets a second term.
You guys need to chill.
Edit: I think Trump's message about "why haven't things been improving in the last thirty years" might actually be resonating with some folks. Going to be a real chance of a change for the sake of change campaigning in 2020 I think. I doubt Hillary gets a second term.
excelsiorlef
Member
tedrotheredro
Member
Yep big day.
Man it so depressing. God help us, can only hope they (democrats) learn the next 5 years to stop playing safe and start being real
cartoon_soldier
Member
Something anti-Trump has to happen for an easier election day for Hillary I think.
Media is still focused on the emails now. And whenever that has happened, Hillary has had enthusiasm issues.
Media is still focused on the emails now. And whenever that has happened, Hillary has had enthusiasm issues.
Nah he's an idiot. I tell this to black millennials all the time that saying these two are cut from the same clothe thinking is a BS fallacy. You'd see the clear and marked difference if you bothered to educate yourself. You'll have to live in a country where one of these two are president for 4 years, which would you rather live in. Donald could literally cause a nuclear war. On the cool, sometimes I wish I could look into an alternate reality with him as president and see how he nukes the Republican Party. Will congress stop him from exerting his executive power? I'm skeptical
metalslimer
Member
Well I'll say as a black person this will be the most disappointed I've ever been in my community if they fail to show up in this election and it will also show me that any movement going on is doomed to fail because people can't see any bigger picture.
Oh and a couple of Obama speeches wouldn't have changed these people's minds. The amount of campaigning he has been doing is unprecedented.
Oh and a couple of Obama speeches wouldn't have changed these people's minds. The amount of campaigning he has been doing is unprecedented.
Spare you what? That it's silly to suggest you had some idea the clinton campaign didn't? Do you think Robbie mook woke up one day in April and was like, "you know, I don't think we care too much about black people," and John podesta, after tweeting his latest conspiracy theory about UFOs, said, "or young people!"?
You gotta play the hand your dealt and hrc was never going to ignite some great interest in young people and she certainly wasn't going to match the turnout in the AA community of obama.
I don't really know what they should do differently. This is the candidate they have.
The same is true for young people. She's tried with the college stuff and some of the joint proposals with sanders but it's just never going to happen. She is a traditional candidate without the pizazz!
Booker is an opportunist charter school supporting loser.
shinra-bansho
Member
I thought people were taking the actual voting electorate as the base consideration for why the demographics were favourable. Which would take into consideration both the share of eligible voters and turnout. My recollection, which may be wrong, isn't of prognosticating specifics on turnout.
Non-hispanic white vote share was about 80%, 76% and 74% in the last three presidential years. What are expectations for this cycle?
Non-hispanic white vote share was about 80%, 76% and 74% in the last three presidential years. What are expectations for this cycle?
balladofwindfishes
Member
Seriously. You all won't even make it to next week at this rate.
I think we all subconsciously know 2020 will be bleak for her if she's Pres. Even HW could only ride Saint Reagan's coat tails for 4 years. That's why the Senate and ultimately SCOTUS is so damn important.
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