Bam Bam Baklava
Member
This one's going to be big.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
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Not really? I feel like if they had a smoking gun they would want it out before early voting.
By tomorrow or Thursday a good chunk of the country has already voted. Seems kinda silly to wait that long.
I feel like it would have made a lot more sense to release a few weeks ago when Trump was being destroyed by oppo. He could've actually made a full recovery in the polls if something truly damning was released by WL. But the fact that nothing they've released so far has had anything incriminating really makes me thing they're all bark and no bite.
Just it being Hillary has a pretty big effect too, though. Many Republicans hate her with a burning passion and refuse to endorse her even when they say they won't vote for Trump.
Hooligan69
Member
Yep, and sadly ruining any kind of hopium or optimism and glee for our first woman President... just right to the gutter.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
It is, but I'm not sure what's a better title based on the context of the chat. They discuss the implications of national polls tightening.
I am not at all convinced that Trump losing by an even worse landslide would cause a course-correction by the deplorables that put him on the national stage in the first place. The echo chamber they've built for themselves is just too strong.
titiklabingapat
Member
I wonder how sticky the college educated whites are gonna be to Democrats, especially if the GOP keeps doubling down on non-college educated whites.
I really don't see the GOP stopping the stupid. Trump will disappear but his voters won't.
I really don't see the GOP stopping the stupid. Trump will disappear but his voters won't.
nature boy
Member
Interesting
It's just another slack chat article where you have to listen to Claire Malone
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
If people are going to be bring up betting markets, they should at least avoid predictit. It's a pretty small volume market compared to something like betfair.
Hooligan69
Member
Good points as I was mainly playing devil's advocate. I also think if they had anything, it would have been released by now.
Fucking Comey though!!! I can't wait to see him get raked over the coals and canned!
TestOfTide
Banned
The problem is that Trump is literally the worst candidate to ever win the nomination and his campaign is the worst GOP campaign ever. Literally every aspect about him has been deplorable and his campaign has basically no groundgame.
Which means that whatever results we see this November will literally be the absolute best results that are possible for Hillary. If that's only 2012 margins, then Hillary is fucked in 2020 so long as the GOP nominates someone even marginally better than Trump that year.
If Trump were to lose by a double digit landslide, then the deplorables wouldn't openly admit it, but they would know deep down that the vast majority of people hate them.
Look at how people treat 2012 results. Sure you get someone occasionally bring up bullshit claims that Obama only won due to fraud, but the vast majority of people recognize that Obama won fair and square in that election, and NO ONE suggests that Obama only won in 2008 due to fraud.
fyi, early vote in NE-2 was looking really good, it may not be enough but it is much better than 2012.
balladofwindfishes
Member
It depends on what direction the GOP goes. If they tone down the overt racism and go back to dog whistles, the college educated will probably move back (because despite being educated they're deaf to dog whistles).
It's the Hispanics I'm curious about. That could be a nice, core group, for Democrats to cement.
banefirelord
Banned
I'm glad to hear it...I fully expect my prediction will be wrong because I'm the worst prognosticator who ever lived, but I'll keep standing by it until the exit polls roll in.
Chezzymann
Member
If biden was running, do y'all think it could have been a Regan style landslide?
Edit: apparently my phone autocorrects biden to video
Edit: apparently my phone autocorrects biden to video
cartoon_soldier
Member
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
It certainly wouldn't be whatever the hell it is now.
balladofwindfishes
Member
No. He'd be running at what Hillary is running at. He's not really that great at campaigning, he makes a ton of gaffes.
No matter who the candidate was, they'd be running at what Hillary is at. That's what polarization does.
StopMakingSense
Member
Prevent defense is terrible in football, but totally fine t-minus 7 days politics.
Elaugaufein
Member
If you don't get the Senate you'll be wishing you only get 4 years of gridlocked government. The 2018 Senate Race is abysmal for Democrats (24 of the 33 up are Democrats and at least 6 are in pretty solid Red States, whereas there's very few Republicans up in Blue States). If you don't get the Senate this year you're not likely to get it back before 2022. The worst case is that 2018 might give the Republicans a supermajority in the Senate ("fortunately" the House is so gerrymandered that it's unliekly to change much from the current configuration)
And if you don't hold the Senate at some point between now and 2020 Clinton's odds of re-election drop considerably because you'll have 4 years of nothing achieved and various Republican mudslinging and a decent chance the resulting inaction will cause or fail to avert another economic downturn.
(There we go. I think that's enough nightmare fuel. )
The GOP doesn't care how horrible Trump is, though. It's party first for them and supporting Hillary in any way goes against the party. It's all about stopping democrats.
Which is a huge problem for the country, but that's where we are today.
cartoon_soldier
Member
It is fine if this was just the campaign. When the SuperPAC also goes on the air internals must show some bad movement.
Yep, these are some of the same people that still believe Obama was born in Kenya
banefirelord
Banned
Y'all, they have like a bajillion dollars in their ad buy coffers that they won't have jack shit to do with after the 8th. Of course they're shoring up the defenses across the board. There's no kill like overkill.
cartoon_soldier
Member
lyrick
Member
Are you talking about the same guy that very recently made some quip about taking Trump out behind the Gym?
TestOfTide
Banned
That implies that it isn't simply just a problem of extremists being more extreme, but also an issue of more people becoming extremists than we had in 2008.
If that's true, then America is fucked.
But that means that since 2008 it wasn't just moderates leaving the GOP but the percentage of deplorables in the country overall INCREASING, which means that social conservatism is not dying out but actually expanding.
If that ends up true, then I am going to be VERY pissed off at the deplorables I know.
I'm not letting the fucking deplorables become the new normal.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
SurveyUSA has Trump+7 in NC so that's not good.
Yup. It's the last week. Shit is about to get crazy and Trump is spending money. If you got it spend what you can so you're not caught by surprise by some bullshit.
Orrrrrrrrrrr they just have a lot of money they want to burn before the 8th.
I don't think it's worth freaking out over assumptions.
banefirelord
Banned
What was their previous?
StopMakingSense
Member
It's literally Trump's only attempt at a hail mary.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
No, you just can't analyze campaign moves very well.
They've got money to burn and are trying to run up the margins to influence Senate and House races in those states.
RastaMentality
Banned
both sides probably would've gotten numb to the constant gaffes. Trump's would've obviously been worse ten fold.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Clinton +2
Now we have Elon and Survey USA both showing big big movement towards Trump in NC.
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
Clinton +2 3 weeks ago
Yep.
whyamihere
Banned
You're not very good at this and honestly it's getting pretty tiresome.
PeteZaTheHutt
Member
Ami is a stand-up guy. He had my back a few years ago in a gun control thread where we were up against one of GAF's most infamous gun nuts. He has my eternal respect for that.
nature boy
Member
That's quite a swing if I ever saw one.
banefirelord
Banned
Wonder what prompted the 9 point swing?
Elaugaufein
Member
It'd not about causing the deplorables to have a course correction. That wouldn't happen. They exist because they are sick of the course correction, they perceive as having taken place of the past 50-70 years.
From a Democratic perspective its about shutting down contention the polls are rigged.
From a health of democracy perspective it's about getting the other Republicans to ditch the deplorables which would likely result in an division of the Republican party followed by another politicial realignment , since your voting system will force a move back to 2 parties (unless by some bizarre happenstance things go wrong enough to force an attempt to change the voting system to something that doesn't lead to that) but the composition of those two parties may change radically.
Lord Frieza
Member
Trump +7 in NC after Clinton being up +2 three weeks ago? I don't like that. I know earlier it sounded like NC would be closer than original thought, sure doesn't look too great.
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