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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
- Thread starter eBay Huckster
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Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Dramatic swings just don't happen this late.
Especially when not backed by other polls claiming similar changes.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Only two polls done for WRAL. Today and the Clinton+2 one.
The issue is it was backed up by another poll today:
Elon North Carolina poll (change):
Clinton 44 (-1)
Trump 44 (+5)
Johnson 4 (-5)
whyamihere
Banned
It's impossible to have an actual 9 point swing in North Carolina given the makeup of the electorate and what we know from years of studying that state's voting patterns. You're all embarrassing yourselves.
BrokenFiction
Member
I really question wild swings like that.
Chezzymann
Member
OK so doomsday scenario: Republicans gain control of all three branches of government. Whats the worst trump could do? Could he actually start banning Muslims and demanding payment from countries in return for our protection? Could he basically do everything he said he wanted to do outside of Mexico paying for the wall for obvious reasons
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Nate Cohn has repeatedly said that SurveyUSA has done a terrible job polling North Carolina this year.
cartoon_soldier
Member
No. But Paul Ryan gets to pass his agenda through all three branches without any resistance.
Fragamemnon
Member
that NC poll doesn't make any sense unless everything we know about urban and inner core suburban white voters from previous polling is no longer valid, in which case we're in for a long night
Elaugaufein
Member
People seem to forget that even good polling usually has a ~3% MoE and that pollsters tend to have Bias (usually to do with their methodologies) , which means that if you get polls form different sources you may get "swings" even if nothing is happening.
lyrick
Member
HItler took what, 33 days to seize unlimited power after election?
Ziltoidia 9
Member
I put depends on in case this happened.
whyamihere
Banned
No, it wasn't. Again. This is North Carolina. This is not New Hampshire. There are not wild swings in weeks.
Also, you're forgetting (for reasons I do not understand) that SUSA has also shown Trump +4 at the start of August if you want to give the full history of their polling there!
In theory with total control you could impeach Supreme Court justices/expand the court to stack it however you want.
Also any of your political opponents are "terrorists" that you can throw in Gitmo because we're at war.
Lord Frieza
Member
So it's not a great poll then, basically. That's a relief, because that's a huge swing.
Clinton +2 10/16 SurveyUSA/Time Warner
Clinton +2 10/3 SurveyUSA/WRAL
Trump +4 8/2 Civitas/SurveyUSA*
Elon has had Trump winning before and is a pretty terrible pollster. SurveyUSA here feels like an outlier given what we've seen of early voting and other major NC polls in the past two weeks (including all of those landline only polls that have Clinton ahead).
banefirelord
Banned
Stacking the SC with radical conservatives and doing absolutely nothing for the environment guarantees a short term living hell for minorities and long term human extinction.
And no, I'm not being sarcastic or hyperbolic.
cartoon_soldier
Member
That poll wasn't for WRAL. This poll is for WRAL so I was just giving history of that.
Elaugaufein
Member
It'd probably take a bit more than that to replace the Supreme Court with a majority of conservative justices who are prepared to totally ignore the Constitution.
Hasphat'sAnts
Member
He absolutely could deliver the majority of his campaign promises in some shape or form.
Whether he will is a different story entirely.
Who would be Germany's Europe in this scenario? To save us from ourselves.
maquiladora
Member
That NC poll is highly suspect.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Elaugaufein
Member
Sorry dood. You're still the planets only hyperpower. The only way anyone is saving you from yourselves is in the nuking you so the infection doesn't spread sense.
whyamihere
Banned
Nothing because there is never going to be a 9 point swing for any candidate in North Carolina because that's not how North Carolina's electorate works!!!
banefirelord
Banned
We're in a post-nuke world. Short of subterfuge and assassination, there would not be an effective way for the rest of the world to curtail a Trump gone mad without a serious threat of Armageddon.
User 463088
Banned
I mean this with all possible love, some of y'all need Jesus. Lord. There was not a 7 point swing in NC in two fucking weeks. To pretend otherwise illustrates a lack of understanding of the electorate, demographics and what were seeing on the ground. Seriously. Take a break from this. Lord.
Of courser there's not going to be some magical swing this late and with early voting going on.
Lord Frieza
Member
I don't think anyone should be overly concerned about Trump winning. It's not a total impossibility, but the odds are so far out there that it's not going to happen. I will admit there's going to be a real bitter-sweetness, for me and some others I see, if her victory isn't pretty huge. I don't expect a true landslide, it's just not possible in the current landscape coupled with a candidate like Clinton, but something that's significant enough to point and say, 'Yeah, Trump got fucked.' It won't shut up the 'deplorables,' but it's a good message from the majority of the country that we aren't into all that.
If the Senate doesn't go blue, then I'll probably still be depressed despite being happy for a Hillary victory. We need to just flush Congress at this point, and the fact that the Senate is still so close is such a joke.
If the Senate doesn't go blue, then I'll probably still be depressed despite being happy for a Hillary victory. We need to just flush Congress at this point, and the fact that the Senate is still so close is such a joke.
CreepingFear
Member
This election and my Cubbies are making me an alcoholic.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
the real fear is giving Paul Ryan a blank check, putting 3 Scalias back on the SCOTUS bench, and letting Trump destroy all our alliances and threatening our supreme hegemony.
banefirelord
Banned
No there wasn't. There was a NINE POINT swing! :O
(Yeah, it's probably not remotely likely)
Just look at what Bush did. Those were all moderate republicans in power. Orange turd is far from being a moderate.
Not only is his rhetoric dangerous, he is extremely stupid and will be easily persuaded by Bannon to go on witch hunts and make the country a living hell for anyone that doesn't bend over to them.
Not only is his rhetoric dangerous, he is extremely stupid and will be easily persuaded by Bannon to go on witch hunts and make the country a living hell for anyone that doesn't bend over to them.
Tal Shiar Agent
Banned
If Clinton wins and the Democrats take control of Congress I really hope they ram through Puerto Rico statehood before the midterms. I'd love it if the Equal Rights Amendment could be sent through again as well as the People's Rights/Saving American Democracy Amendment.
Hopefully we'd get a SCOTUS decision outlawing voter ID laws too.
Hopefully we'd get a SCOTUS decision outlawing voter ID laws too.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Can you tell MS to do some hacking or something?
Little do we know that retroactive momentum will swing them by nine points.
Ziltoidia 9
Member
I see three scenarios.
1. Over sampling to benefit repubs.
2. They didn't count people who already voted.
3. Shitty poll.
1. Over sampling to benefit repubs.
2. They didn't count people who already voted.
3. Shitty poll.
Yeah I've always wondered why Puerto Rico isn't considered a state yet.
Tal Shiar Agent
Banned
Because it'll give two permanent blue senators.
Can we just take a moment to remember how good PPP's twitter guy/gal has been this election? Seriously, that social media dude/dudette has always been fun and kept it real.
Chezzymann
Member
Isn't it divided on what it wants to do? Like a third want statehood, a third want independence, and a third are fine with hlw it is now?
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