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[Zukkoyaki]

It feels like a big portion of Johnson's voters are deciding to fall in line with Trump????

Data all election has shown that Johnson and Stein supporters favor Clinton. We gotten reports from both veteran R and D pollsters saying as much.

 

[RustyNails]

Trump's absolute lack of GOTV infrastructure of any type is going to ensure this election is studied for years by political scientists. I expect him to under perform on election day..by how much, who knows, but it'll be discussed and debate for quite some time.

Chill out. Go watch tv. Go read. Have sex. Do something outside of watching Morning Joe, CNN, hand wring, etc. This is not a close election.

Is oppo still coming???

 

[Dierce]

It feels like a big portion of Johnson's voters are deciding to fall in line with Trump????

That is what I'm noticing as well on polls where Johnson is under 6%.

 

[Emarv]

Where are all these no-name shit pollsters popping up all over the place from. Remington, "auto alliance", etc.

They're skewing everything.

''Tis the season! People are starved for polls so all of the crappy ones are coming out to try and get some last minute attention.

 

[Wallach]

Has he gone off the deep end or is this nuanced satire?

Scott Adams is a genuine nutjob, he has been for a long time.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

I wish the general public would get more attuned to positions like Railroad commissioner/agricultural commissioner, because those people have so much impact on us, and they just seem like a throw away rae on a ballot. Im ashamed of Miller being commissioner in my state.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Where are all these no-name shit pollsters popping up all over the place from. Remington, "auto alliance", etc.

They're skewing everything.

They release polls at a decent pace as well. They're wrecking havoc on 538 and RCP.

 

[Maxim726X]

What happened to the video of Trump dropping the N bomb?

Does it exist? Running out of time to change the narrative here.

 

[TheFatOne]

Chuck Todd is fucking worthless. Let's this dumb fuck DEA guy spew bullshit and go unchecked.

 

[Atlagev]

Trump's absolute lack of GOTV infrastructure of any type is going to ensure this election is studied for years by political scientists. I expect him to under perform on election day..by how much, who knows, but it'll be discussed and debate for quite some time.

Chill out. Go watch tv. Go read. Have sex. Do something outside of watching Morning Joe, CNN, hand wring, etc. This is not a close election.

I mostly just lurk here, but thank you for your continued level-headed and much-needed reality checks. It is one of the things keeping me sane this election.

 

[metalslimer]

I've completely blacked out of TV media as of this weekend and it's been glorious. I recommend everyone else do the same and follow whatever newspaper or online website you like.

 

[Y2Kev]

Remington
Rasmussen
Surveymonkey

We just need WeAskAmerica

 

[Manmademan]

Where are all these no-name shit pollsters popping up all over the place from. Remington, "auto alliance", etc.

They're skewing everything.

The GOP has its own radio and TV news empire to fabricate the news they want. They can afford to blow cash on a handful of pollsters.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

Some reading while you change your sheets:

Why Polling Swings Are Often Mirages

Although we didn’t find much vote switching, we did notice a different type of change: the willingness of Clinton and Trump supporters to participate in our polls varied by a significant amount depending upon what was happening at the time of the poll: When things are going badly for a candidate, their supporters tend to stop participating in polls.

 

[blackw0lf]

Time for a little hopium

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/793569309255692289

‏@steveschale

Through Mon's votes, share of the FL electorate that is black (African American & Hispanic) is now 11.7%, and growing. 1/

African American share was like 8 when in-person early voting started. 2/

FL Hispanics are now closing in on being 14% of the electorate, driven by huge numbers of low propensity Hispanic Dems/NPA 3/

51% of Hispanic Dems are either first time or 1 of 3 voters, and 57% of Hispanic NPAs. There is definitely a Hispanic surge happening. 4/

 

[Black Mamba]

It feels like a big portion of Johnson's voters are deciding to fall in line with Trump????

I think it's more likely Johnson voters are now not going to vote (failing LV screen) and some "undecided" Republicans, especially in red states, are coming home.

 

[RustyNails]

I've completely blacked out of TV media as of this weekend and it's been glorious. I recommend everyone else do the same and follow whatever newspaper or online website you like.

My plan was to play FFXV last week of election to take the edge off but fucking squeenix ruined everything.

I'm back to replaying Witcher 3. At least Black Mirror on Netflix is fun.

 

[Iolo]

Some reading while you change your sheets:

Why Polling Swings Are Often Mirages

So non-response bias.
Which increases the probability of Systemic Polling Error™.
Which inflames my spleen severely.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Did we get new Google surveys?

 

[Emarv]

When does Joe's Poll Shack drop their latest poll?




Brb, going to go start Joe's Poll Shack Inc!

 

[Carpe Carnim]

My plan was to play FFXV last week of election to take the edge off but fucking squeenix ruined everything.

I'm back to replaying Witcher 3. At least Black Mirror on Netflix is fun.

The truly difficult question this week will be Start Bravely Second, or Link To The Past.

Popcorn and beer supplies are stocked. Let's do this!

 

[Iolo]

Time for a little hopium
@steveschale

Through Mon's votes, share of the FL electorate that is black (African American & Hispanic) is now 11.7%, and growing. 1/

African American share was like 8 when in-person early voting started. 2/

He mentioned earlier that he had HRC winning with AA share at 13% and anything north of that would be a good sign. Hopefully that increase continues.

The truly difficult question this week will be Start Bravely Second, or Link To The Past.

Popcorn and beer supplies are stocked. Let's do this!

A Link to the Past replay might be fun. I was thinking about it the other day.

 

[Tendo]

Why am I starting to bedwet. Gonna be a long week.

 

[Barzul]

Did we get new Google surveys?

#National Google Consumer Surveys (10/25-31):

Clinton 38% (+3)
Trump 35%
Johnson 6%

 

[blackw0lf]

He mentioned earlier that he had HRC winning with AA share at 13% and anything north of that would be a good sign. Hopefully that increase continues.

And didn't he have that with also a lower share of the Hispanic vote than is now projected based on early voting?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

FFXV sounds like they finally made the game OK, but made it like Witcher 3 without the story-heavy side-quests which is... I mean, I played The Witcher 3 and it's OK, but I might pass.

Especially since there's no children's card games in FFXV

That was the best part of The Witcher 3 other than the Baron quest line.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

Why am I starting to bedwet. Gonna be a long week.

Incontinence can be a side effect of certain medications. You might want to see a doctor.

My investments in adult diapers is going to pay off mightily this year

 

[Paches]

#National Google Consumer Surveys (10/25-31):

Clinton 38% (+3)
Trump 35%
Johnson 6%

20% undecided with a week to go!

 

[Diablos]

Some reading while you change your sheets:

Why Polling Swings Are Often Mirages

Does that mean they're just not in the mood to answer but will probably still vote?

 

[shinra-bansho]

Add another two votes to Hillary in Maryland.

You're supposed to vote three times. Didn't you get the memo?

 

[Black Mamba]

#National Google Consumer Surveys (10/25-31):

Clinton 38% (+3)
Trump 35%
Johnson 6%

Honestly, GCS looks like a joke poll these days. No one above 40% in the final week. This type of polling is obviously wrong.

Does that mean they're just not in the mood to answer but will probably still vote?

Yes

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

You're supposed to vote three times. Didn't you get the memo?

Ten times if you're black.

 

[Iolo]

https://twitter.com/redsteeze/status/793144569466589184

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

My plan was to play FFXV last week of election to take the edge off but fucking squeenix ruined everything.

I'm back to replaying Witcher 3. At least Black Mirror on Netflix is fun.

World of Final Fantasy is good!

 

[nature boy]

I'm sticking by that RAND poll

 

[Zukkoyaki]

I'm sticking by that RAND poll

I don't know much about that one. Good reputation?

 

[NYCmetsfan]

another negative beyh piece

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...chedule-shows_us_5818eae8e4b0f96eba965f9f?vnc

I seriously don't get his popularity in IN.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

My concern isn't the initial announcement and being able to absorb that, It's more of an issue of 6 more days of negative coverage wearing Clinton's numbers down. Hopefully nothing worthy of new attention comes out and people tune out by Friday and decide on their vote. Like Nicole Wallace was saying, there may only be about 72 hours of the news cycles left in terms of actually changing votes.

 

[BrokenFiction]

Jeff Gauvin ‏@JeffersonObama 3h3 hours ago

#POLLS 11/1 3PM

■REU C+6
■ABC T+1
■SVM C+7
■CNBC C+10
■NOLA C+2
■AP C+14
■PEW C+6
■SU C+9
■DC C+12
■FOX C+5
■QUI C+7
■BLO C+9
■CBS C+9

Get out and vote!

 

[Y2Kev]

I have no idea what any of those things are.

 

[Cybit]

I think it's more likely Johnson voters are now not going to vote (failing LV screen) and some "undecided" Republicans, especially in red states, are coming home.

The assumption is like 70% or so of undecideds this year are actually Republicans mad at their party.

 

[Hasphat'sAnts]

Steve Schale is so inspirational

:')

 

[RustyNails]

FFXV sounds like they finally made the game OK, but made it like Witcher 3 without the story-heavy side-quests which is... I mean, I played The Witcher 3 and it's OK, but I might pass.

Especially since there's no children's card games in FFXV

That was the best part of The Witcher 3 other than the Baron quest line.

Bloody Baron quest was the highlight. If you liked it, get Hearts of Stone DLC. Its a very unnerving, haunting story.

But thats not to say the rest of the game was a disappointment. The Ladies of the Woods subplot was creepy af. Characters were well rounded. Even the Witcher quests, like Tower Outta Nowhere and that quest about that guy in Skellige that kept mutilating himself, those were almost as good as Baron quest. It kind flatlined the last 1/4th of the game as the main enemies turn out to be generic evil dudes. The Crones were much better antagonists.

 

[Blader]

While I trust Sam Wang's model the most I do think it can be too bullish at times. According to the NYT, he has Hillary with a 91% chance of winning Maine District 2 when multiple polls have shown Trump ahead there.

Hillary was leading ME-2 in the most recent poll there, no?

 

[nature boy]

I don't know much about that one. Good reputation?

Accurate in 2012 and RAND Corporation does a ton of research, so hopefully they're right

 

[RustyNails]

World of Final Fantasy is good!

MAYBE

But I'm only getting FF XV. I have been waiting for it for 10 years.

 

[Aaron Strife]

It's like a pitcher losing all confidence after a humiliating defeat (Nate insisting Trump wouldn't win the primary). Now, Trump's up to bat again and Nate's hands are shaking, and the sweat is pouring off his brow.

The funny thing is Nate's model did predict a Trump win.

Like bro, you should take that as redemption! Your gut told you "No way, that can't be right" and it was still validated.

Of course, when Nate's gut was saying "No way, that can't be right," Nate's mouth (or his fingers via Twitter, rather) was saying (paraphrased) "You're all fucking idiots if you don't think Rubio will win" so he has more crow to eat I guess.

 

[Zackat]

https://twitter.com/redsteeze/status/793144569466589184

haha god that is just so good

 

[Carpe Carnim]

So, funny thing about the Auto Alliance poll that Cunty McCuntface from Texas tweeted: that same pollster showing a +6 for Clinton in OH

#Ohio:
Clinton 47% (+6)
Trump 41%
Johnson 4%

#Nevada:
Clinton 44% (+4)
Trump 40%
Johnson 8

@auto_alliance/@ESAGovAffairs 10/27-31

When did crap-tier pollsters proliferate in this country?

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

Does that mean they're just not in the mood to answer but will probably still vote?

That's my read, yeah