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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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Snake

Member
Am I missing something with those poll numbers above? It looks like Clinton's number are up except for one or two?

Looks like they're the latest polls from those outlets, not polls released today. Several are probably weeks old. So that twitter post being quoted is disingenuous.
 
Why would that mean he loses the primaries? Kander would make a stellar VP.

I admit my biggest concern would be the farther left people in the party. He wouldn't be able to be super liberal because of his constituency. VP would be really good though, I just have a hard time imagining it because all the VPs I've had (and after Hillary wins) are grey-haired white dudes about 60 years or older lol. Well, except Gore but I was like 6 when Billl left office.
 
The pre-election week OT for 2012 was one of the best reads today. It really should be required reading before posting, as it paints both a very similar and very contrasting figure.

Oh no. I just realized you can either consider Hillary in the position of Obama at that time... or McCain!
panic
 

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Shit. Trump is going all-in with his hard earned cash, now!

He's probably taking a donation deduction for the 9 million. Then the campaign is sending it to various trump properties.

Those properties are in turn taking a deduction for 'in-kind' deductions for renting space at less than fair market value.

Then they are paying the Trump Organization 70% of that cash back.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
He's probably taking a donation deduction for the 9 million. Then the campaign is sending it to various trump properties.

Those properties are in turn taking a deduction for 'in-kind' deductions for renting space at less than fair market value.

Then they are paying the Trump Organization 70% of that cash back.

Um why are you assuming it is 9 million?

and not 9 thousand
 
Don't know if this was posted

Early votes nearly doubled at this point during 2012. Also early voting increased in nearly every battleground state as well. Democrats seemed to outpaced Republicans in some states like CO and MI.

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/20...y-early-voting-nearly-twice-high-2012-n676391




More than 26 million voters have already cast early ballots a week ahead of Election Day 2016, nearly double the amount of early vote at this point in the 2012 election, according to new analysis by the NBC News Data Analytics Lab.

On October 30, 2012, one week ahead of the Obama vs. Romney match-up, roughly 13.5 million voters had cast early ballots nationwide. Ahead of Election Day, early votes are generally cast via early in-person voting, no excuse in-person absentee voting or mail-in absentee voting.
In Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania, Republican-affiliated voters outpaced Democrat-affiliated voters in 2012 and also do so in 2016, though by smaller margins.

Similarly, in Iowa, North Carolina, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin, Democratic-affiliated voters also voted at higher rates than Republican-affiliated voters in 2012 a week ahead of the Election and are continuing this trend in 2016.


In Colorado, Michigan and Virginia, things look quite different from this year's vantage point than they did in 2012. In 2012, Republican -affiliated voters outpaced Democrats in Colorado and Virginia by 3-point margins and a 13-point margin in Michigan. This year, Democratic-affiliated voters are outpacing Republicans by 3 points in Colorado and Michigan, and by 13 points in Virginia.

In Florida, a state that has received widespread attention this election cycle as it has in previous years, the number of Republican -affiliated voters and Democratic-affiliated voters who have cast ballots are tied as they were in 2012. Obama won Florida over Romney in 2012 by less than a percentage point.
 

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Who's gay?!


What happens to the campaign manager after anyway
Do they get folded in to the cabinet
Start on reelection
Or join other campaigns?

They normally join the team in the whitehouse for a period of time and peal off in time for mid terms.

I know a ton of full time campaign staffers in DC. Most of them make a ton of cash then go on unemployment between elections.
 

Zackat

Member
He's probably taking a donation deduction for the 9 million. Then the campaign is sending it to various trump properties.

Those properties are in turn taking a deduction for 'in-kind' deductions for renting space at less than fair market value.

Then they are paying the Trump Organization 70% of that cash back.

I only saw one comma


xTMdFHP.png
 
Paul Ryan said he voted for Trump. Do you guys think he actually voted for Trump, though? I'm honestly torn. On the one hand, he's weak. On the other hand, he understands Trump's an idiot turd.

So he probably did vote for him.

I do.

All he cares about is cutting taxes to the bone, and President Trump would also cut taxes to the bone.
 

JackDT

Member
Can we all stop and reflect for a moment that somehow Hillary actually ended up as probably most transparent Presidential candidate ever? Not by intention of course. The phrase used to be a joke because she said something like that but had a reputation for being secretive. But now it's true.

We've seen like holy crap levels of everything. 30 years of tax returns. The highest levels of private communication in both her 2008 and 2016 campaigns. High levels staffers privately calling reporters a piece of shit, saying they wish they could punch somebody in the face. The DNC's emails. The secret speeches. The State department emails. I mean it's crazy right? Compare this to any other candidate or Trump. We don't even have one year's worth of Trump's tax returns never mind all this private stuff. The stuff we do have is like, things Trump said while hooked up to a television studio microphone.

It's kind of amazing because I genuinely would have imagined some crazy shenanigans would exist if I could read the Clinton 2016 and especially the 2008 campaign communications.
 

Strimei

Member
Well, I got "volunteered" by a family member to do phonebanking for the democrats later this week.

I put quotation marks because I could've declined but it would've looked bad and honestly not like I"m doing anything else anyway, might as well do my part, eh?

Anyone have any advice? I'm not afraid of anyone being angry or hanging up or anything, I mean I worked as a guide in a major international airport, I'm used to abuse, heh.
 

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Florida ground operation will deliver that state if there are decent early voting stats.

Are there any updates on NC?

In on an anniversary vacation. Can confirm Buncombe county breaking hard for hill.

This is not news. But I was here with their Dem party getting housed in 2012 celebrating Obama
 

Zackat

Member
Can we all stop and reflect for a moment that somehow Hillary actually ended up as probably most transparent Presidential candidate ever? Not by intention of course. The phrase used to be a joke because she said something like that but had a reputation for being secretive. But now it's true.

We've seen like holy crap levels of everything. 30 years of tax returns. The highest levels of private communication in both her 2008 and 2016 campaigns. High levels staffers privately calling reporters a piece of shit, saying they wish they could punch somebody in the face. The DNC's emails. The secret speeches. The State department emails. I mean it's crazy right? Compare this to any other candidate or Trump. We don't even have one year's worth of Trump's tax returns never mind all this private stuff. The stuff we do have is like, things Trump said while hooked up to a television studio microphone.

It's kind of amazing because I genuinely would have imagined some crazy shenanigans would exist if I could read the Clinton 2016 and especially the 2008 campaign communications.

I couldn't imagine if the RNC got hacked. The shit that would probably come out of that would be absurd. I am sure they already cleaned house by now though.
 
I do, but where Hillary goes is much more important to me than say Anne Holton or Kaine (no offense). I'm trying to wrap my head around a Michigan trip before a Wisconsin one.

ANNE HOLTON IS COMING HERE TOMORROW, YOU TAKE THAT BACK.

It's true, but as long as they get people out to vote, it matters
 

Kangi

Member
Still not worrying about the White House, but how's the Senate situation looking? Tough to keep up on all those races.

Bayh is in trouble, Feingold might be slightly vulnerable, McGinty's looking good, Kander has a shot. PEC still thinks 50/50+Kaine is highly likely.
 
Still not worrying about the White House, but how's the Senate situation looking? Tough to keep up on all those races.

I still say that the total absence of an R presidential GOTV is going to be a factor. I'm feeling good about Kander, Ayotte, and Grayson if the polling holds (though my god that one is closer than it has to be).
 
I mean wouldn't that mean they just get smarter with it? I'm not sure if i want a smarter Trump-type fascist in office who speaks well (this probably doesn't exist in the current GOP roster).

Im arguing they're already out of time to nominate a stealth-fascist. Every 4 years the electorate is 2% less White, like clockwork, and that trend will increase as the White birthrate continues to stagnate while Hispanic families continue to have higher rates.

The GOP base, as it's constituted currently, will not accept a candidate who doesn't promise deep immigration curbs and ethnic resentment policies.
 

jiggle

Member
Robby Mook the first openly gay campaign manager.
I think he just got hotter
Is that possible?

They normally join the team in the whitehouse for a period of time and peal off in time for mid terms.

I know a ton of full time campaign staffers in DC. Most of them make a ton of cash then go on unemployment between elections.
Do you know mook >.>

Interesting
How did axelrod end up on cnn lol
 
You're not transparent because someone else rifled through the filing cabinets in your office with the opaque glass windows and then shared it with the world. The tax returns where transparent , the campaign emails weren't.

Most words for that situation are actually pretty negative (breached for example).
 
It's more complicated than that when you're using an email client. Email as originally designed (SMTP) is uploaded to a server by a sender and downloaded to a recipient by a client (and usually cleared off the server in the process, since it was designed for mutli-user systems with hilariously limited space by todays standards), this is still very common for eg ISP based email accounts. Email as its used today ( the "webmail" / gmail approach) can be done in two fashions, either downloaded by a client like it was old email (but usually not clearing the server) in which case it's stored on the computer or "synched" from the web when you look at in the client, when this happens all that's "stored" on the computer for most messages is the meta data in the header (sender, receiver, title , does it have a read receipt / attachment / priority marking basically). but of course when the email is looked at the contents is downloaded to the computer (so you can read it) generally that information will also be cached on the computer so it doesn't have to be redownloaded / you can look at it offline but it may be deleted from the cache if it goes unused for a period of time.

If you're using webmail via a web broswer you'll anything you looked at recently in your browser cache unless you cleared it.

Thanks for this response (as while I'm fairly tech and computer savvy, I'm by no means an expert).

Yeah, I figured there's always cache and metadata stored. But the way the media describes it it sounds like he just physically downloaded e-mails and stored them on his pc as if he d/led and excel file.

Trump talks as if these are the "missing e-mails" and no one in the media pushes back against this type of narrative. As if e-mails are these hidden documents you store on a laptop.

Now, I don't know what type of e-mail Weiner used...so maybe it was webmail or not.

Thanks for the added info. I appreciate it.
 

dramatis

Member
Anyone have any advice? I'm not afraid of anyone being angry or hanging up or anything, I mean I worked as a guide in a major international airport, I'm used to abuse, heh.
You'll be fine, they give you a script and everything, and if you know how to be polite regardless of who is on the line, then you're set.
 

Oriel

Member
Not worried about the Pres race, Hillary has that locked up. But I really do fear the GOP will retain the Senate.
 
Florida ground operation will deliver that state if there are decent early voting stats.

Are there any updates on NC?

All I know is that the Dems are behind when it comes to black turnout, but they are catching up thanks to more voting places opening up . Obama will go to North Carolina sometime this week.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/democrats-north-carolina-early-voting-230573

My logic says that if Obama and his campaign was down in early votes in FL and still won it, but Hillary's is tied than she could win. Assuming things are going fine and nothing drastically alters the numbers.
 

Zukkoyaki

Member
I think of the ad-buys and trip to Detroit as precautionary. The Clinton campaign doesn't strike me as one to take anything for granted!
 

starmud

Member
I think of the ad-buys and trip to Detroit as precautionary. The Clinton campaign doesn't strike me as one to take anything for granted!

It seems like a pretty small response to trump blowing money in these states, why let trump have the lone air time during the closing week.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
If Clinton really raised $12MM in three days, then she should be sprinkling it everywhere and people should not be looking into where she's spending it.
 
All I know is that the Dems are behind when it comes to black turnout, but they are catching up thanks to more voting places opening up . Obama will go to North Carolina sometime this week.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/democrats-north-carolina-early-voting-230573

My logic says that if Obama and his campaign was down in early votes in FL and still won it, but Hillary's is tied than she could win. Assuming things are going fine and nothing drastically alters the numbers.

She's winning Florida and by a larger margin than Obama in 2008. Won't be one of the 3 closest states in the end, I think.

I think black turnout will be down, slightly. This is unsurprising as with Obama off the ballot, it will hurt a bit. I don't think this is racially based, fwiw. I think this is a consequence of millennials voting less this election than the prior two. And with our country being more diverse, less millennials voting means less black people voting.

But the slight dip will be overcome by new latino voters, so it's fine.
 
All I know is that the Dems are behind when it comes to black turnout, but they are catching up thanks to more voting places opening up . Obama will go to North Carolina sometime this week.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/democrats-north-carolina-early-voting-230573

My logic says that if Obama and his campaign was down in early votes in FL and still won it, but Hillary's is tied than she could win. Assuming things are going fine and nothing drastically alters the numbers.

The florida black turnout thing has been bugging me all day.

How do we have accurate statistics of exactly which ethnicities are turning out to vote in early voting? I can't find where the state of florida tracks that.
 

Strimei

Member
You'll be fine, they give you a script and everything, and if you know how to be polite regardless of who is on the line, then you're set.

No worries there, then. Not a day went past without several people yelling at me and acting as if their lost luggage or missed flight was my fault (and often in other languages, too). I can handle that, I can handle this eaisly. Thanks!
 
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