I love all the regretted tweets that were hacks. There's a huge criminal cabal making millions off of hacking Twitter accounts to post poll results.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
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Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I guess they're going daily until election day. That's something to keep track of.
At this point you should be happy with any win at all. I have never seen a candidate have to run against Russian intelligence and the FBI at the same time.
Randolph Freelander
Member
Don't forget the utterly incompetent media.
nature boy
Member
Landline only, better than nothing
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
I thought it was just a laughable poll when I first saw it.
Now I look back and see why it was deleted.
What a world
Black Mamba
Member
I think the one effect the e-mails MIGHT have had was bring home some depressed GOPers in red states.
Which is bad for Congress. A really bad time for this to happen. It would be nice if another big thing about Trump came out.
What I've learned about 2016 the most is my understanding at how awful the media has been wasn't even fucking close to the reality of how awful the media is. Specifically TV news media.
Just look at this e-mail story. It's literally a nothing story. It should have been a page 7 story on a newspaper.
"During the ongoing investigation of former Congressman Anthony Wiener, some e-mails have been discovered that may or may not have gone through Hillary Clinton's private e-mail server. The FBI is attempting to obtain a warrant to make sure that none of these e-mails contained classified information."
THAT'S THE WHOLE FUCKING STORY. IT IS NOT A BOMBSHELL. IT IS NOTHING RIGHT NOW.
The media plays into the faux alt-right outrage in order to drum up ratings and equivalence. I fucking HATE what the news media has become.
And to go on further, let's think about what those e-mails must be.
Because, first off, nobody has e-mails stored on a computer than I'm aware of. Maybe I'm wrong here but you access e-mail through a server. I can access it from any computer! Any phone! any tablet!
Here's my best guess as to what's going on.
1. Weiner's computer is still logged into his e-mail accounts...probably through outlook. At least one of these accounts received e-mails from Huma...likely forwarded from the Clinton servers. You know, like Hillary forwards an e-mail to Huma about a NYT article and she forwarded it to Weiner since he was her fucking husband and they both worked in politics!
2. Weiner knows Huma's e-mail and PW and has been logging in to read her shit. He's scum who cheats which means he's insecure so it would be right up his alley. In this case, I'm pretty sure all the e-mails were already accounted for by Huma.
There's going to be nothing in these e-mails if you think about this logically. Anthony Weiner isn't storing classified information on her personal laptop from the Clinton Servers. This is such a fantasy thought...fucking fuck.
Fuck the media. I'm so over them.
Which is bad for Congress. A really bad time for this to happen. It would be nice if another big thing about Trump came out.
What I've learned about 2016 the most is my understanding at how awful the media has been wasn't even fucking close to the reality of how awful the media is. Specifically TV news media.
Just look at this e-mail story. It's literally a nothing story. It should have been a page 7 story on a newspaper.
"During the ongoing investigation of former Congressman Anthony Wiener, some e-mails have been discovered that may or may not have gone through Hillary Clinton's private e-mail server. The FBI is attempting to obtain a warrant to make sure that none of these e-mails contained classified information."
THAT'S THE WHOLE FUCKING STORY. IT IS NOT A BOMBSHELL. IT IS NOTHING RIGHT NOW.
The media plays into the faux alt-right outrage in order to drum up ratings and equivalence. I fucking HATE what the news media has become.
And to go on further, let's think about what those e-mails must be.
Because, first off, nobody has e-mails stored on a computer than I'm aware of. Maybe I'm wrong here but you access e-mail through a server. I can access it from any computer! Any phone! any tablet!
Here's my best guess as to what's going on.
1. Weiner's computer is still logged into his e-mail accounts...probably through outlook. At least one of these accounts received e-mails from Huma...likely forwarded from the Clinton servers. You know, like Hillary forwards an e-mail to Huma about a NYT article and she forwarded it to Weiner since he was her fucking husband and they both worked in politics!
2. Weiner knows Huma's e-mail and PW and has been logging in to read her shit. He's scum who cheats which means he's insecure so it would be right up his alley. In this case, I'm pretty sure all the e-mails were already accounted for by Huma.
There's going to be nothing in these e-mails if you think about this logically. Anthony Weiner isn't storing classified information on her personal laptop from the Clinton Servers. This is such a fantasy thought...fucking fuck.
Fuck the media. I'm so over them.
I like to imagine a hacker that deletes Tweets right as they're posted and slightly changes the contents when he reposts them.
Ha was going to post that. Not too mention their Minor League team called the Cubbies. I saw Johnny Damon play for the Rockford Cubbies and still have the card I got from that game.
Edit: Or maybe it was the Rockford Royals he played for. I think the Cubbies came right after the Royals so I could be wrong about that. I'd have to check the card to be sure.
Godzilla's Left Toe
Member
This gif shows the Democratic win percentagte from August until Nov 1:
That 538 Nov 1 dip
Hmm
Black Mamba
Member
In many ways, I don't get the 538 dip. I'm not seeing any numbers that is really affected their data in the way it actually is.
in the final week, the results should be solidifying. I mean, their averages with the MoE being so low should be increasing Hillary's likelihood of winning. Even if the race is tightening a bit, which Silver argued might be 1-2 points, the odds of her winning should be going up still.
It's what happened 4 years ago even as some polls went to Romney.
PEC is doing what a model is supposed to do, here.
Anyway, I trust Wang and Linzer a lot more than I'd trust Silver...especially at the amount of statistical mistakes he's made this year in his articles.
in the final week, the results should be solidifying. I mean, their averages with the MoE being so low should be increasing Hillary's likelihood of winning. Even if the race is tightening a bit, which Silver argued might be 1-2 points, the odds of her winning should be going up still.
It's what happened 4 years ago even as some polls went to Romney.
PEC is doing what a model is supposed to do, here.
Anyway, I trust Wang and Linzer a lot more than I'd trust Silver...especially at the amount of statistical mistakes he's made this year in his articles.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
CBS knows that if Trump wins, they will be shut down so they published a false story about Podesta encouraging aides to delete all of Hillary's emails even though Podesta was saying that they would have to release the emails.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hillary-clinton-campaign-chairman-urged-aides-to-dump-all-those-emails/
These media outlets are aggressively unintelligent.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/hillary-clinton-campaign-chairman-urged-aides-to-dump-all-those-emails/
These media outlets are aggressively unintelligent.
RustyNails
Member
Lost all respect for Anderson Cooper last night.
Two hours of baseless speculation and why this october surprise is bad for Hillary. Not a single fucking peep about Comey's butting into the politics. Nothing. Emails emails emails, its hillary's fault. Even let Kellyanne spew away her fairyland nonsense for 20 minutes with no pushback.
This is what media was looking for. Their normal journalism dictates that both sides get equal coverage. The lopsided coverage of Trump being a sexual predator and blaming victims is now unfavorable in their standards, so this story was a godsend. As if this nothingburger story in any way shape or form is comparable to Trump being a fucking rapist.
nature boy
Member
crowphoenix
Banned
Add another two votes to Hillary in Maryland.
Veritigo_X
Member
That would be amazing if Missouri had that recreational marijuana initiative on the ballot and it passed too.
it truly is. no joke, but i have friends that send me rasmussen poll numbers asking me if i would like to increase our wagers. i mean... its just too appetizing.
Mizzou Gaming
Member
This Missouri guy approves, Blunt is awful.
BotoxAgent
Member
My whole family is freaking out. I've been trying to stay away from politics, but they keep texting me in fits of panic. Ugh
This gif shows the Democratic win percentagte from August until Nov 1:
That 538 Nov 1 dip
It's like a pitcher losing all confidence after a humiliating defeat (Nate insisting Trump wouldn't win the primary). Now, Trump's up to bat again and Nate's hands are shaking, and the sweat is pouring off his brow.
djplaeskool
Member
Mom's spaghetti
Coriolanus
Banned
Scott Adam's latest argument on why Hills is more dangerous than Don truly is a thing of beauty.
Like, for reals, that's art.
Like, for reals, that's art.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
While I trust Sam Wang's model the most I do think it can be too bullish at times. According to the NYT, he has Hillary with a 91% chance of winning Maine District 2 when multiple polls have shown Trump ahead there.
I'd trust a drunk Hillary over a sober Donald any day.
Mizzou Gaming
Member
I think they are seriously overrating Clinton buying ads in Colorado and other relatively solid blue states because HRC has a big cash advantage including the just announced $12million since FBI announcement.
Godzilla's Left Toe
Member
Coriolanus
Banned
It ain't just that. Look at shit like the risk score he gives each candidate over balooning the deficit. Or all the other stuff. It's like a beautiful kaleidoscope of madness.
Abinash117
Member
I think this is relatively true. Right now Trump has bad relations with GOP officials which can potentially hurt voting efforts, cut funding of the victory fund, extremely disliked, low funds, no ground game, losing every demographic besides none college educated whites, GOP doing worse than Dems in some early voting states, etc. But Hillary will have about 320 ish EV or roughly the same as Obama in 2012? I'm skeptical of that a lot.
Saying it is because of hyper polarization is not a good argument because it was the same issue for a black man in 2012 . Either there are bad pollings going on, Hillary is a worst candidate than Trump and her campaign is bad, or there is a silent majority that is real and is voting for Trump. I don't think there's evidence in some of those factors like the last two; I still think that she will have a landslide and since that it has been reported that Comey's shenanigans had little effect I don't see how anything has changed since after the third debate. I don't get why people are still crying and flipping out.
Has he gone off the deep end or is this nuanced satire?
Trump gonna win bruh get ready hope you didn't vote for Clinton or else you'll be arrested for aiding a criminal
Landline-only R partisan pollster. Funny enough they had Clinton up in Ohio and Florida
Cesare Borgia
Banned
Trump's absolute lack of GOTV infrastructure of any type is going to ensure this election is studied for years by political scientists. I expect him to under perform on election day..by how much, who knows, but it'll be discussed and debate for quite some time.
Chill out. Go watch tv. Go read. Have sex. Do something outside of watching Morning Joe, CNN, hand wring, etc. This is not a close election.
Chill out. Go watch tv. Go read. Have sex. Do something outside of watching Morning Joe, CNN, hand wring, etc. This is not a close election.
"I was hacked!"Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller, a Republican statewide office holder, called Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee for president, a c--t in a tweet Tuesday afternoon. His office said the tweet was a result of a hack.
lol, sure thing pal.
Beer Monkey
Member
DID I SAY HACK? I MEANT RETWEET.
whew ok.
BigJonsson
Member
That guy needs to learn from Trump and own his hate
cartoon_soldier
Member
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Low quality poll which has an equally unlikely result in Ohio right now. Not very reliable.
And_Gignac
Member
It feels like a big portion of Johnson's voters are deciding to fall in line with Trump????
FloydtheFathead
Member
Watch the Lions play?
metalslimer
Member
DID I SAY HACK? I MEANT RETWEET.
Lol you can see in the saved version it wasn't a retweet. This idiot.
RustyNails
Member
Where are all these no-name shit pollsters popping up all over the place from. Remington, "auto alliance", etc.
They're skewing everything.
Seconded. Completely.
DID I SAY HACK? I MEANT RETWEET.
That's not how retweets work lol
Carpe Carnim
Member
Josh Marshall and Kurt Eichenwald are both very interested in today's FBI document drops. They're calling them extremely unusual. They've both questioned why the FBI would be dropping WJC Foundation and Marc Rich documents, while putting out a dossier on Trump's father where he's referred to as a "philanthropist".
Hyperbolic, yes, but very...odd,to say the least. Is this more proof of a civil war in the FBI, or are Comey loyalists fearing they'll be kicked to the curb when/if he goes down, and figure they have nothing to lose by tipping the scales the best they can.
https://twitter.com/kurteichenwald/status/793560141375438849
Hyperbolic, yes, but very...odd,to say the least. Is this more proof of a civil war in the FBI, or are Comey loyalists fearing they'll be kicked to the curb when/if he goes down, and figure they have nothing to lose by tipping the scales the best they can.
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