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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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T

TumblingHippo

Member
Ended up getting a job interview on the 9th, so I can't stay up late anymore to watch the results on the 8th. It's a job working in an educational field, so I guess whoever wins determines if I accept it or not :D
 
C

CoffeeJanitor

Member
BrokenFiction said:
Jeff Gauvin ‏@JeffersonObama 3h3 hours ago

#POLLS 11/1 3PM

■REU C+6
■ABC T+1
■SVM C+7
■CNBC C+10
■NOLA C+2
■AP C+14
■PEW C+6
■SU C+9
■DC C+12
■FOX C+5
■QUI C+7
■BLO C+9
■CBS C+9

Get out and vote!
Click to expand...
Mode:9
Mean:7.3
Median:7
SD:3.96
Range:15
Sample:13
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Cybit said:
The assumption is like 70% or so of undecideds this year are actually Republicans mad at their party.
Click to expand...

It kind of makes sense, doesn't it?

The thing is, if you're in a swing state and hate hillary but also really don't like Trump, you're forced to make a choice. And they've been begrudgingly choosing trump since the RNC.

But in places like Alabama or Mississippi, you can afford to hold off your vote. Maybe not vote or vote Johnson because your state is going Trump anyway. And now that the time is near the end, these people are just realizing they're going to vote and vote straight GOP because they always vote straight GOP.

At least, that's my take.


I also believe the response rates matter in polling (different subject here) and I have argued this all year long. I do believe the natural state of the race is 4-7 points. Now, some might point out how I've believed Clinton could win by 10...but I want to note I have always clarified this argument as one where enough Trump voters are sad and don't actually vote on election day as polls show a decisive victory for Clinton. This might not happen, now, thanks to MEDIA but that's about it.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
the ABC Poll being Trump +1 is actually a good result in a vacuum because there has to be some national polling outliers due to math and that being one is a good thing.

But it going from like Clinton +14 or wtvr to down 1 in a single week as a tracking poll makes no sense to me.
 
Z

ZealousD

Makes world leading predictions like "The sun will rise tomorrow"
Black Mamba said:
In many ways, I don't get the 538 dip. I'm not seeing any numbers that is really affected their data in the way it actually is.
Click to expand...

A single SurveyUSA poll said Trump +7 and it moved NC into Trump's camp on the 538 map. Plus some other swing state polls from SurveyMonkey showing the race more competitive.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
StopMakingSense said:
Fuckit, I'm still a double digit truther. 10 POINT WIN YASSSS.
Click to expand...

A 10+ win would mean massive Blue State GOTV efforts and Trump getting like 27%. That's possible, but as far as maximizing EV and Senate outcomes, it don't mean much. It's sad, but true.

California, a weary Nation turns its eyes to you
 
J

jiggle

Member
BrokenFiction said:
Jeff Gauvin ‏@JeffersonObama 3h3 hours ago

#POLLS 11/1 3PM

■REU C+6
■ABC T+1
■SVM C+7
■CNBC C+10
■NOLA C+2
■AP C+14
■PEW C+6
■SU C+9
■DC C+12
■FOX C+5
■QUI C+7
■BLO C+9
■CBS C+9

Get out and vote!
Click to expand...

Fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck
tumblr_mg9yc0rTvh1qjccmko1_500.gif

Picnicking
Someone
hot
hold me
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
Carpe Carnim said:
A 10+ win would mean massive Blue State GOTV efforts and Trump getting like 27%. That's possible, but as far as maximizing EV and Senate outcomes, it don't mean much. It's sad, but true.

California, a weary Nation turns its eyes to you
Click to expand...
i want 50% for the world to see we fully rejected Trumpism.
 
O

OmniOne

Member
SO...

We may have our First Women President, our first First Gentleman and our first POTUS FGOTUS.

What would we name the first openly gay campaign manager who elected the first WPOTUS? Mook doin' work.
 
H

hipsterpants

Member
My favorite part about that Kander/Blunt poll is that Kander actually gained a point on Blunt from the last Monmouth poll they ran like a month ago. In that NYT article on him from a week or so ago they reported that he's actually getting Trump supporters at his rallies and it's causing tension with the Hillary supporters there lol.

Dude would be scary as shit to the GOP if he decided to run for president in 2024 or beyond. So he probably would never get past the Dem primaries.
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
hipsterpants said:
My favorite part about that Kander/Blunt poll is that Kander actually gained a point on Blunt from the last Monmouth poll they ran like a month ago. In that NYT article on him from a week or so ago they reported that he's actually getting Trump supporters at his rallies and it's causing tension with the Hillary supporters there lol.

Dude would be scary as shit to the GOP if he decided to run for president in 2024 or beyond. So he probably would never get past the Dem primaries.
Click to expand...
Why would that mean he loses the primaries? Kander would make a stellar VP.
 
V

Voysa Reezun

Banned
StopMakingSense said:
Fuckit, I'm still a double digit truther. 10 POINT WIN YASSSS.
Click to expand...

I mean, I think that's quite possibly going to happen. I've got her winning by somewhere between eight and eleven points. She's going to outperform her polls, and Trump is probably going to slightly underperform his polls just based on GOTV.

I also think that ultimately, OH and maybe wacky-ass NH are the only places where any significant ticket-splitting is going to happen, which is also why I'm pretty sure that the Senate is likely D and headed toward safe D in the end.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
Black Mamba said:
Because, first off, nobody has e-mails stored on a computer than I'm aware of. Maybe I'm wrong here but you access e-mail through a server. I can access it from any computer! Any phone! any tablet!
Click to expand...

It's more complicated than that when you're using an email client. Email as originally designed (SMTP) is uploaded to a server by a sender and downloaded to a recipient by a client (and usually cleared off the server in the process, since it was designed for mutli-user systems with hilariously limited space by todays standards), this is still very common for eg ISP based email accounts. Email as its used today ( the "webmail" / gmail approach) can be done in two fashions, either downloaded by a client like it was old email (but usually not clearing the server) in which case it's stored on the computer or "synched" from the web when you look at in the client, when this happens all that's "stored" on the computer for most messages is the meta data in the header (sender, receiver, title , does it have a read receipt / attachment / priority marking basically). but of course when the email is looked at the contents is downloaded to the computer (so you can read it) generally that information will also be cached on the computer so it doesn't have to be redownloaded / you can look at it offline but it may be deleted from the cache if it goes unused for a period of time.

If you're using webmail via a web broswer you'll anything you looked at recently in your browser cache unless you cleared it.
 
P

Protein

Banned
Anyone have that 'presidential daily tracker (i think it was a daily tracker) past predictions' image? I saw it a few posts earlier in this thread but can't find it.
 
B

Brawndo Addict

Banned
RustyNails said:
Bloody Baron quest was the highlight. If you liked it, get Hearts of Stone DLC. Its a very unnerving, haunting story.

But thats not to say the rest of the game was a disappointment. The Ladies of the Woods subplot was creepy af. Characters were well rounded. Even the Witcher quests, like Tower Outta Nowhere and that quest about that guy in Skellige that kept mutilating himself, those were almost as good as Baron quest. It kind flatlined the last 1/4th of the game as the main enemies turn out to be generic evil dudes. The Crones were much better antagonists.
Click to expand...

Witcher 3 was so disappointing to me. It's by far my least favorite entry in the franchise and I don't think it justified its existence very well. The main plot is garbage and the signature feature of the franchise (gray choices with meaningful consequences) is basically non-existent. Nothing in the Witcher 3 even remotely compares to the daring Story/Chapter Divergence in Witcher 2.

Wait a minute, where am I? Oh yeah, uh...the Senate races sure are looking like toss-ups am i right...
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
RastaMentality said:
i want 50% for the world to see we fully rejected Trumpism.
Click to expand...

The form of ethno-Nationalism that pervades Trumpism isn't going anywhere. I'd argue it's better out in the open where GOP policy can be tarred with it. I mean, Trump's voters didn't appear outta nowhere, this year; they've always been there, leveraged, with dog-whistles and *wink, wink, nod, nod*

Now that two Obama terms and a Clinton administration is a reality, the "saner" Conservatives have to decide whether they're gonna go-along to get-along, or fight back. The boil had been lanced, the question now is whether the GOP drains it, or rubs ebola-adulterated glass in it.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Loudninja said:
You do realize she and others will most like do many events each day until election right?

This was just today
2upabk.png
Click to expand...

I do, but where Hillary goes is much more important to me than say Anne Holton or Kaine (no offense). I'm trying to wrap my head around a Michigan trip before a Wisconsin one.
 
J

jiggle

Member
OmniOne said:
SO...

We may have our First Women President, our first First Gentleman and our first POTUS FGOTUS.

What would we name the first openly gay campaign manager who elected the first WPOTUS? Mook doin' work.
Click to expand...
Who's gay?!


What happens to the campaign manager after anyway
Do they get folded in to the cabinet
Start on reelection
Or join other campaigns?
 
E

Emarv

Member
Paul Ryan said he voted for Trump. Do you guys think he actually voted for Trump, though? I'm honestly torn. On the one hand, he's weak. On the other hand, he understands Trump's an idiot turd.

So he probably did vote for him.
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
Carpe Carnim said:
The form of ethno-Nationalism that pervades Trumpism isn't going anywhere. I'd argue it's better out in the open where GOP policy can be tarred with it. I mean, Trump's voters didn't appear outta nowhere, this year; they've always been there, leveraged, with dog-whistles and *wink, wink, nod, nod*

Now that two Obama terms and a Clinton administration is a reality, the "saner" Conservatives have to decide whether they're gonna go-along to get-along, or fight back. The boil had been lanced, the question now is whether the GOP drains it, or rubs ebola-adulterated glass in it.
Click to expand...
I mean wouldn't that mean they just get smarter with it? I'm not sure if i want a smarter Trump-type fascist in office who speaks well (this probably doesn't exist in the current GOP roster).
 
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