Support NeoGAF

[RustyNails]

If Clinton really raised $12MM in three days, then she should be sprinkling it everywhere and people should not be looking into where she's spending it.

This. She already spent where she needed to spend for the last week. This is icing on the cake and she's sprinkling it wherever she wants, which at the moment looks like she's trying to solidify state legislatures in Blue states.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

The florida black turnout thing has been bugging me all day.

How do we have accurate statistics of exactly which ethnicities are turning out to vote in early voting? I can't find where the state of florida tracks that.

Lots of signs that blacks are making up ground and Hispanics are maintaining historic numbers

https://storify.com/DemFromCT/steve-schale-on-where-fl-early-voting-stands-as-of

 

[SexyFish]

The money Trump put in matches this.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00I87BYF2/?tag=neogaf0e-20

TRUMP BUYING AMAZON ITEMS THROUGH CAMPAIGN CONFIRMED

 

[Elaugaufein]

She's winning Florida and by a larger margin than Obama in 2008. Won't be one of the 3 closest states in the end, I think.

I think black turnout will be down, slightly. This is unsurprising as with Obama off the ballot, it will hurt a bit. I don't think this is racially based, fwiw. I think this is a consequence of millennials voting less this election than the prior two. And with our country being more diverse, less millennials voting means less black people voting.

But the slight dip will be overcome by new latino voters, so it's fine.

It almost certainly is racially based to some extent. People are motivated by tribal / in group instincts. Obama produced a significant bump in black voter turn out in 2008 , so you'd expect a drop off (the Democrats would hope that having had Obama elected though, that the drop off is mitigated a bit by their political action having had a positive effect reinforcing faith in the system and willingness to participate).

 

[Black Mamba]

It almost certainly is racially based to some extent. People are motivated by tribal / in group instincts. Obama produced a significant bump in black voter turn out in 2008 , so you'd expect a drop off (the Democrats would hope that having had Obama elected though, that the drop off is mitigated a bit by their political action having had a positive effect reinforcing faith in the system and willingness to participate).

I'm sure they'll be some, on the margins, and more in non-competitive states.

But I think the drop-off in black support is mostly concentrated by millennials.

 

[Manmademan]

Lots of signs that blacks are making up ground and Hispanics are maintaining historic numbers

https://storify.com/DemFromCT/steve-schale-on-where-fl-early-voting-stands-as-of

ok, but how do we determine what percentage of the electorate that has turned out so far is black, hispanic, etc?

The numbers in the politico article were fairly precise.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

The florida black turnout thing has been bugging me all day.

How do we have accurate statistics of exactly which ethnicities are turning out to vote in early voting? I can't find where the state of florida tracks that.

Florida gathers a lot of identifiers about registered voters. Race/ethnicity and party among them. Some states don't.

 

[Protein]

Hillary's campaign needs to purchase the N-Word tape for 5 million dollars. Every stupid, diet racist out there needs this crutch to finally be able to see that he's racist.

 

[Aaron Strife]

This. She already spent where she needed to spend for the last week. This is icing on the cake and she's sprinkling it wherever she wants, which at the moment looks like she's trying to solidify state legislatures in Blue states.

In the case of three of the four states mentioned in that tweet (NM, CO, MI), this would actually involve flipping legislatures. The MI House, NM House and CO Senate are all red and on the ballot this year.

VA was the other state she made a buy in, and there are competitive seats in all of those states - CO-3, CO-6, MI-1, MI-7, MI-8, VA-5, VA-10 are all plausible Democratic pickups. Also NM-2 could be competitive under very favorable circumstances.

 

[RustyNails]

I goddamn hate politico with a passion. Seriously, last week of election and they go with "why trump and hillary like to sleep in their own beds" story.

 

[Manmademan]

Florida gathers a lot of identifiers about registered voters. Race/ethnicity and party among them. Some states don't.

registered voters, yes. But we're talking about early voters. That is, those that actually showed up to vote and returned a ballot.

Politico quoted this figure:

The lowest-performing group: African Americans. They cast about 421,000 early and absentee ballots as of Monday morning, accounting for 55 percent of the total early ballots that black voters cast in 2012, AIF’s analysis shows.

how do we determine that 421,000 black votes were tallied as of monday morning? Where is that data coming from?

 

[Clefargle]

Hillary's campaign needs to purchase the N-Word tape for 5 million dollars. Every stupid, diet racist out there needs this crutch to finally be able to see that he's racist.

I'm holding out hope that they already have it and are just waiting until the moment where he has no time to change the narrative. Hopium is a helluva drug

 

[Carpe Carnim]

Well, I got "volunteered" by a family member to do phonebanking for the democrats later this week.

I put quotation marks because I could've declined but it would've looked bad and honestly not like I"m doing anything else anyway, might as well do my part, eh?

Anyone have any advice? I'm not afraid of anyone being angry or hanging up or anything, I mean I worked as a guide in a major international airport, I'm used to abuse, heh.

Whatever script you're given, think about a personal anecdote as to why you're voting Clinton. Waffling voters don't care about statistics, or policy promises, but if you show them you care because of a personal reason, they're more likely to connect and leave the call with a positive feeling about your candidate.

That's what worked for me door knocking.

 

[mentallyinept]

Man. What a great quote. What a great president.

 

[TestOfTide]

I said it in one of the OT threads, but the thing I absolutely love most about Hillary is that she REALLY worked her way up that political fucking ladder, making sure to grab every rung along the way. Antiestablishment deplorables hate when politicians do that, but that's the way a competent government works.

You don't go from Fry Cook on day 1 to CEO of McDonalds on day 2. You work up the fucking ladder because it guarantees that you learn all you need to learn before you reach the top.

Might explain that Michigan trip.

Dems are making a serious play like every Congressional seat that's even borderline competitive.

Bingo. Clinton campaign isn't going into likely blue states because of the POTUS race. They are going in there to drag across the finish line every seat with even small chances of democrats winning.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

registered voters, yes. But we're talking about early voters. That is, those that actually showed up to vote and returned a ballot.

Politico quoted this figure:



how do we determine that 421,000 black votes were tallied as of monday morning? Where is that data coming from?

Because the State and entities with access to the voter file, which Florida provides, know that a voter with X ethnicity, registered to Y party voted, or didn't vote by Z method

 

[Manmademan]

Because the State and entities with access to the voter file, which Florida provides, know that a voter with X ethnicity, registered to Y party voted, or didn't vote by Z method

So its available on request via the voter file, but not public information per se? And florida provides that within 24 hours?

 

[thestopsign]

I think I am going to mostly try to avoid reading small things about the election in this thread until Tuesday. I don't think my heart can really take all the whiplash going around.

I'll check for major stories and maybe a few polls when they come in, but other than that I might just try to immerse myself in a TV show or game.

 

[Y2Kev]

(((Harry Enten))) ‏@ForecasterEnten 23m23 minutes ago
From month before election to 9 days before it, we had 80 live interview polls in 2012 in 10 states closest to national vote. In 2016? 36.

This is the issue to me. We are kinda flying blind.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

So its available on request via the voter file, but not public information per se? And florida provides that within 24 hours?

Its updated daily through the Secretary of State's web-portal.


https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports

 

[whyamihere]

This is the issue to me. We are kinda flying blind.

It's going to get worse in subsequent elections.

 

[Manmademan]

Its updated daily through the Secretary of State's web-portal.


https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports

I'm sorry, but I'm not seeing the ethnicity data here, only raw totals and party affiliation, and lack thereof.

 

[Iolo]

This is the issue to me. We are kinda flying blind.

I bet HRC is not flying blind though.

 

[Coriolanus]

This is the issue to me. We are kinda flying blind.

Polls for the poll god.

Is a weird development. Would you happen to know the reason?

 

[Amir0x]

This is the issue to me. We are kinda flying blind.

I wonder if it is as simple as there are far less legitimately close states this election, and the ones that are close - Ohio and Iowa and Florida excepted - are actually Republican states traditionally that Hillary doesnt even need to win in order to gain the presidency. And shit she dont even need Ohio or Florida this time.

So obviously less need for polls in this theory with smaller amount of relatively important close states. Whatcha think?

 

[Plinko]

LOL at that "Auto Alliance" PA poll.

If the dems lose PA (they won't), it's over. Trump will be president.

I mean, a poll was released yesterday with Hillary by 11 in PA.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Polls for the poll god.

Is a weird development. Would you happen to know the reason?

Cost most likely. Big investment, less and less likely to get the money back (everybody going to 538, stealing your work, clicks and ad revenue)

Unless you've got a client willing to pay for it.

They'll be a lot of private polling. PPP said they were doing like 80 polls this week or something but all private

 

[Aaron Strife]

Polls for the poll god.

Is a weird development. Would you happen to know the reason?

Pollsters got spooked after blowing 2012, also some up-and-coming pollsters like PPP are doing far more private work.

The best pollsters are the ones the campaigns hire, so PPP running like 80-90 polls in the final week that you don't see is probably really good for their bottom line but terrible for the public's understanding of where the race is.

 

[Y2Kev]

Polls for the poll god.

Is a weird development. Would you happen to know the reason?

I think it's cost. Response rates are at like 1% now, so you have to poll more people via more methods. The largest "payor" in the past was print media, and well...

Trackers on their own are kinda crap.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

I'm sorry, but I'm not seeing the ethnicity data here, only raw totals and party affiliation, and lack thereof.

Pretty sure ethnicity data is only provided to approved entities, until after the election when it's compiled by the state and sent out.

That's why certain outlets like Election Smith are used, because they get real-time info rather than the toplines available publically.

 

[Y2Kev]

I bet HRC is not flying blind though.

You mean the woman going to Michigan on Friday?

Did Obama ever go there?

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I think it's cost. Response rates are at like 1% now, so you have to poll more people via more methods. The largest "payor" in the past was print media, and well...

Trackers on their own are kinda crap.

Yup the first big poll was reader digest

 

[Finale Fireworker]

I think it's cost. Response rates are at like 1% now, so you have to poll more people via more methods. The largest "payor" in the past was print media, and well...

Trackers on their own are kinda crap.

So, it is likely that all the problems we currently have with polling are only going to be exacerbated in 2020 and on.

How do we accommodate for this issue? How will it impact elections if we simply cannot accurately poll during the campaign?

 

[whyamihere]

You mean the woman going to Michigan on Friday?

Did Obama ever go there?

Obama went to Wisconsin in the last week of 12

 

[nature boy]

I think it's cost. Response rates are at like 1% now, so you have to poll more people via more methods. The largest "payor" in the past was print media, and well...

Trackers on their own are kinda crap.

Whoa don't get ahead. It's around 9%

Either way, pollsters need a new way to find out what the folks think,

 

[thebloo]

Glad people are calmer now. Hillary will take it, Dems take Senate even w/o Kaine.

Trust the campaign, trust the ground game.

Spoiler

I'm really sad that "Ground game is in our hats" didn't become a thing.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

So, it is likely that all the problems we currently have with polling are only going to be exacerbated in 2020 and on.

How do we accommodate for this issue? How will it impact elections if we simply cannot accurately poll during the campaign?

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/762497721831874561

@mitchellvii
Imagine polls don't exist. Show me evidence Hillary is winning?

 

[Manmademan]

Pretty sure ethnicity data is only provided to approved entities, until after the election when it's compiled by the state and sent out.

That's why certain outlets like Election Smith are used, because they get real-time info rather than the toplines available publically.

Which is what I thought.

So where is that 402,000 ballot, and 55% total coming from, if the state hasn't sent that data out yet?

 

[Y2Kev]

Whoa don't get ahead. It's around 9%

Either way, pollsters need a new way to find out what the folks think,

I read this recently: https://www.wired.com/2016/06/civis-election-polling-clinton-sanders-trump/

 

[Diablos]

If Kaine is VP does the Gov appoint his replacement or is there a special election?

 

[dramatis]

No worries there, then. Not a day went past without several people yelling at me and acting as if their lost luggage or missed flight was my fault (and often in other languages, too). I can handle that, I can handle this eaisly. Thanks!

I was asked by a guy once if I was a US citizen

So if you're triggered by things like that, lol

 

[Y2Kev]

So, it is likely that all the problems we currently have with polling are only going to be exacerbated in 2020 and on.

How do we accommodate for this issue? How will it impact elections if we simply cannot accurately poll during the campaign?

Well Clinton will probably spend tens of millions on pollsters this cycle that can stay in the field so I imagine the campaigns can afford to fix some of this.

If Clinton doesn't have multiple polls going in every state of hers to get to 270 right now I'd be kinda surprised.

 

[Iolo]

You mean the woman going to Michigan on Friday?

Did Obama ever go there?

I assume she's going there for a reason. Whether she sees some softening of her support, she wants to guard against another upset, she wants to gotv, or she wants to attack downballot, is what we can't see.

Let's assume it's none of the above and she wants Michigan cherries and Podesta doesn't have the heart to tell her they're out of season. Especially over email

 

[whyamihere]

If Kaine is VP does the Gov appoint his replacement or is there a special election?

Both. Appointment then special election in fall 2017.

 

[Dubbedinenglish]

Go Kander
Go Queen Harris
Go Duckworth
Go Russsssss
Go Barksdale and your stupid hat, it's so stupid.



Ugh Murphy

 

[nature boy]

I read this recently: https://www.wired.com/2016/06/civis-election-polling-clinton-sanders-trump/

Got mine from the WSJ: https://t.co/9aGgtoFfII (should bypass the paywall)

%1 means 50000 to 100000 calls in a typical poll. That's insane.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

Which is what I thought.

So where is that 402,000 ballot, and 55% total coming from, if the state hasn't sent that data out yet?

The State provides more in-depth data to approved outlets. AIF quoted in that Politico piece you mentioned I guess being one of them, along with the major parties.

 

[Aaron Strife]

If Kaine is VP does the Gov appoint his replacement or is there a special election?

Gov appoints and there's a special election in 2017.

The seat is up anyway in 2018 so the winner of the 2017 race will have to run again a year later anyway.

Speculation that McAuliffe will appoint a black politician to help gin up turnout among the black community for 2017 when state legislature and governor/lt. governor/attorney general races are also up.

 

[Dan]

Dropping my CA ballot in the mail. Finally cemented my thoughts on all 31 decisions I had to make. Feels good.

 

[Strimei]

Whatever script you're given, think about a personal anecdote as to why you're voting Clinton. Waffling voters don't care about statistics, or policy promises, but if you show them you care because of a personal reason, they're more likely to connect and leave the call with a positive feeling about your candidate.

That's what worked for me door knocking.

Hm, good thinking. And as it happens, I actually had the opportunity as a little kid to meet both Bill and Hillary (this was waaaay back, when Bill was first running for President), and I remember meeting both of them fondly, enough so that it left me absolutely charmed by the both of them. So I can use that in some way.

(I even made Bill laugh!)