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[Y2Kev]

I had two very weird dreams. The first was that I was able to pay about $4,000 for someone to tell me the final electoral vote count. I figured I'd be able to back into the winner from there.

The other dream was that I was in a marathon on Naboo where Star Wars Episode 2's love scenes take place and it was a Trump palace. I ran it in 50 minutes but I don't know how long or how far it was. I wonder if this is a sign.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Internet polling is probably going to have to become a bigger deal in the future to compensate for landlines dying and lower response rates from mobile users. Which means pollsters will have to jiggery-pokery with their methodologies to produce accurate results.

 

[HanShotFirst]

is it still reasonable to say Hillary Clinton wins with a 7- 12 point lead?

 

[jtb]

if this is the death of public polling, good riddance, I say.

 

[metalslimer]

Queens white outfit is on point tonight

 

[Cerium]

I had two very weird dreams. The first was that I was able to pay about $4,000 for someone to tell me the final electoral vote count. I figured I'd be able to back into the winner from there.

The other dream was that I was in a marathon on Naboo where Star Wars Episode 2's love scenes take place and it was a Trump palace. I ran it in 50 minutes but I don't know how long or how far it was. I wonder if this is a sign.

Emperor Trump confirmed.

 

[nature boy]

Internet polling is probably going to have to become a bigger deal in the future to compensate for landlines dying and lower response rates from mobile users. Which means pollsters will have to jiggery-pokery with their methodologies to produce accurate results.

Yes the WSJ piece goes a bit into that.

Like presenting a survey if you can't load a site. Still very tricky to get a proper sample.

But they gotta do something

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

is it still reasonable to say Hillary Clinton wins with a 7- 12 point lead?

Not reasonable at all. Anything between Obama 2012 and Obama 2008 would be best case scenario.

 

[kevin1025]

The other dream was that I was in a marathon on Naboo where Star Wars Episode 2's love scenes take place and it was a Trump palace. I ran it in 50 minutes but I don't know how long or how far it was. I wonder if this is a sign.

If Trump wins we're getting Attack of the Clone Trumps!

And Bernie Sanders will Yoda fight Mike Pence as he tries to escape back to Darth Trumpious.

 

[RastaMentality]

Gov appoints and there's a special election in 2017.

The seat is up anyway in 2018 so the winner of the 2017 race will have to run again a year later anyway.

Speculation that McAuliffe will appoint a black politician to help gin up turnout among the black community for 2017 when state legislature and governor/lt. governor/attorney general races are also up.

is there a shortlist yet?

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

I had two very weird dreams. The first was that I was able to pay about $4,000 for someone to tell me the final electoral vote count. I figured I'd be able to back into the winner from there.

The other dream was that I was in a marathon on Naboo where Star Wars Episode 2's love scenes take place and it was a Trump palace. I ran it in 50 minutes but I don't know how long or how far it was. I wonder if this is a sign.

Sand gets everywhere? I don't know. Maybe it does. I'll tell you what though. I hate it. It will be gone, believe me. Extreme sand vetting.

 

[Grief.exe]

is it still reasonable to say Hillary Clinton wins with a 7- 12 point lead?

4-7 has been the median this entire race, would love to be surprised.

 

[metalslimer]

Not reasonable at all. Anything between Obama 2012 and Obama 2008 would be best case scenario.

Eh there's a chance she pulls out a 8 point win

 

[Joeytj]

Internet polling is probably going to have to become a bigger deal in the future to compensate for landlines dying and lower response rates from mobile users. Which means pollsters will have to jiggery-pokery with their methodologies to produce accurate results.

How about just measuring Facebook likes? Lol

I'm guessing that calling smartphones is a safer bet than overall online.

The problem with calling cell phones, as I understand it, is that it's expensive for pollster to call cell phones, especially compared to voting online or landlines.

But I can't see how you can make accurate polling from online surveys without breaching certain privacy laws, in order to get the precise demographics and survey people within the U.S. who are eligible to vote.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Donald, this has already been happening!

Trump: If HRC elected, it would create "constitutional crisis" and "the work of government would grind to an unbelievable, unglorious halt."

https://twitter.com/sarahmccammon/status/793595079126638592

It took us ten months to fund anti-Zika stuff. Ten fucking months. Bill Clinton was under investigation for losing money on a land deal for the entirety of his presidency.

 

[Aaron Strife]

is there a shortlist yet?

Bobby Scott appears to be the most likely candidate.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...822154-6bb6-11e6-ba32-5a4bf5aad4fa_story.html

 

[Y2Kev]

So, Marquette's last two polls for reference tomorrow. Does anyone know the time?

Clinton + 3 in September
Clinton + 7 in October

I remember they were actually T+1 for the first day and then the bottom fell out after Pussygate. I'm gonna predict this will be Trump Adjusted Leader + 3.

edit: It's 12:15PM CT.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Has anyone read this article from NYP re: Abedein and the recent drama?

http://nypost.com/2016/10/31/huma-abedins-april-warning-from-the-fbi/

Thoughts?

These are serious security breaches, yet neither Clinton nor Abedin has been prosecuted for her gross negligence. Maybe that will change now. Maybe if Weiner cooperates with investigators against his wife (to save his own neck), Abedin in turn might be compelled to cooperate with them against her boss.

Hmmm

 

[whyamihere]

I also don't buy that Hillary is going to Michigan for downballot. Why go to Detroit then?

The only reason I could see this besides the fact that it's not really competitive is that there is little to no early vote in Michigan. Same with Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, where she could also be going. You only get one chance to do it right in those 3 states versus getting good data every day where you can adjust accordingly.

I think it's reasonable to assume that Michigan isn't actually a swing state but is one where she probably should visit given the fact that they really only have one chance to get it right. That's why she's also going to PA.

Or it's a 2 point race there!

 

[Voysa Reezun]

is it still reasonable to say Hillary Clinton wins with a 7- 12 point lead?

Yep.

EDIT: Twelve points is on the high end, but I find it hard to see how she doesn't win by eight or more points.

 

[sturgboski]

Donald, this has already been happening!



https://twitter.com/sarahmccammon/status/793595079126638592

It took us ten months to fund anti-Zika stuff. Ten fucking months. Bill Clinton was under investigation for losing money on a land deal for the entirety of his presidency.

Yeah he is pretty correct here. With a Trump presidency, Senate and House, a lot of terrible shit can get passed quickly over the next 4 years. However, a democrat president with republican Congress, welcome to 4 years of abject refusal to even come to the table because the GOP is a fucking embarrassment.

 

[BotoxAgent]

Has anyone read this article from NYP re: Abedein and the recent drama?

http://nypost.com/2016/10/31/huma-abedins-april-warning-from-the-fbi/

Thoughts?

Ny post is trash

 

[TI82]

An anti-Hillary person brought up Bosnia to me, saying how Hillary is the reason that Bill didn't follow up on his attacks to end the genocide and sourced this article:
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/fighting_words/2008/03/the_tall_tale_of_tuzla.html

Does anyone know the truth or what the whole story is?

 

[Ether_Snake]

ACA premiums is going to be such a huge drive for people to vote for Trump, the news couldn't come at a worst time, and I really think it's going to make a big difference in his favor.

 

[Debirudog]

ACA premiums is going to be such a huge drive for people to vote for Trump, the news couldn't come at a worst time, and I really think it's going to make a big difference in his favor.

Where's the evidence.

 

[Diablos]

Gov appoints and there's a special election in 2017.

The seat is up anyway in 2018 so the winner of the 2017 race will have to run again a year later anyway.

Speculation that McAuliffe will appoint a black politician to help gin up turnout among the black community for 2017 when state legislature and governor/lt. governor/attorney general races are also up.

McAuliffe can't run for a second consecutive term due to state law, right?

Yeah... hopefully we can get at least 51 Senators...

 

[Boke1879]

ACA premiums is going to be such a huge drive for people to vote for Trump, the news couldn't come at a worst time, and I really think it's going to make a big difference in his favor.

It hasn't

 

[Amir0x]

ACA premiums is going to be such a huge drive for people to vote for Trump, the news couldn't come at a worst time, and I really think it's going to make a big difference in his favor.

Maaaaybe it could have been if, ya know, Donald Trump or his campaign was competent enough to capitalize on it. Or this FBI email news hasnt drowned out all bullshit.

 

[pigeon]

ACA premiums is going to be such a huge drive for people to vote for Trump, the news couldn't come at a worst time, and I really think it's going to make a big difference in his favor.

Why?

Literally, why would you expect this when it doesn't affect the vast majority of Americans at all?

 

[shinra-bansho]

Who's gay?

Everyone eventually. If Big Gay gets its way.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

Hm, good thinking. And as it happens, I actually had the opportunity as a little kid to meet both Bill and Hillary (this was waaaay back, when Bill was first running for President), and I remember meeting both of them fondly, enough so that it left me absolutely charmed by the both of them. So I can use that in some way.

(I even made Bill laugh!)

That's a great memory! People will respond to you if you frame it that way.

I liked using the fact that my sister, who had pre-existing medical issues was basically uninsurable prior to Obamacare. I talked about how her life would be markedly less livable, and the burden on me and my parents would be much greater if she wasn't offered a low-cost insurance option especially because my Governor and Legislature refused Federal funds to expand Medicare for nearly a million people in FL.

Lotsa people responded that they could empathize with the feeling of helplessness and the weight of responsibility to care for sick or disabled family members. And wouldn't you want someone who feels it's necessary to fix healthcare system woes as POTUS, rather than a buffoon who wants to send everyone back to a market full of predatory insurance vultures who write their own rules, to benefit only them and their shareholders?

 

[shinra-bansho]

If Clinton really raised $12MM in three days, then she should be sprinkling it everywhere and people should not be looking into where she's spending it.

She sprinkles, we tinkle.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Richard Burr's anti-Ross ads are amazing.

"Deborah Ross wanted a U.S. flag to come down while supporting the right to burn U.S. flags! She hates America!"

The criticism this week of Ross stems from the letter the Granite Falls, N.C., man wrote to the ACLU in 2001, asking the organization to take up his case as a free speech issue. The property developer was pursuing legal action against him, saying the flag pole and other structures on his land violated restrictive covenants in the land deed.

“I have made it clear that I will not submit to the removal of my flag and pole. ... I am however only one person standing alone at this time and I need help,” McClure wrote in 2001.

An ACLU attorney wrote McClure back, declining to take on the case. The Free Beacon posted copies of correspondence online, showing ACLU attorneys cited the group’s limited resources and its opinion that proving a violation of his free speech would be difficult in a lawsuit.

........ Richard Burr is the saddest politician.

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article93795637.html

 

[Aaron Strife]

I also don't buy that Hillary is going to Michigan for downballot. Why go to Detroit then?

The only reason I could see this besides the fact that it's not really competitive is that there is little to no early vote in Michigan. Same with Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, where she could also be going. You only get one chance to do it right in those 3 states versus getting good data every day where you can adjust accordingly.

I think it's reasonable to assume that Michigan isn't actually a swing state but is one where she probably should visit given the fact that they really only have one chance to get it right. That's why she's also going to PA.

Or it's a 2 point race there!

So what you're saying is

McAuliffe can't run for a second consecutive term due to state law, right?

Yeah... hopefully we can get at least 51 Senators...

Nope, governors in Virginia get one term.

 

[Fragamemnon]

Media buys sometime happen because there's money and literally no other place to put it, for what it is worth. Don't overthink things.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Media buys sometime happen because there's money and literally no other place to put it, for what it is worth. Don't overthink things.

Also just not being complacent.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

Media buys sometime happen because there's money and literally no other place to put it, for what it is worth. Don't overthink things.

She had a lot of cash on hand, and raised a lot since the Comey fuckery so yeah, I buy that.

 

[Y2Kev]

Media buys sometime happen because there's money and literally no other place to put it, for what it is worth. Don't overthink things.

Yeah, I agree.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Wow, I noticed that the absence of news causes major *******ing in this thread.

The mind wanders...

 

[nature boy]

New buzzword: phantom swings

 

[StopMakingSense]

ACA premiums is going to be such a huge drive for people to vote for Trump, the news couldn't come at a worst time, and I really think it's going to make a big difference in his favor.

you mean the 10 day old news?

 

[BuggyDClown]

Theres no reason to be worried right PoliGAF???

I should just stay away from 538, right??

Where are those other videos and bombshells the WSJ and Nesweek supposidly and or others still had??

We need another pussy grab moment.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Trump is napalming TBS with ads. Every commercial break. I assume its national although I would be absolutely delighted if this is a NY buy, hahaha.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Dear god. Trump rally in Michigan. Amid chants of 'lock her up' - kid on dad's shoulders says 'execute her!' Mum and dad erupt with praise.

Pros: Child did not say "kill that bitch!"

https://twitter.com/WalkerSkyNews/status/793171357819437057

Theres no reason to be worried right PoliGAF???

I should just stay away from 538, right??

Where are those other videos and bombshells the WSJ and Nesweek supposidly and or others still had??

We need another pussy grab moment.

#BanCesareifnooppo

And Rick Wilson and Liz Mair too obviously.

 

[Debirudog]

Hillary prepares everything but there's so much people posting "DON'T JINX IT" in the Fireworks thread. She's just super prepared for everything.

 

[Loudninja]

Pros: Child did not say "kill that bitch!"

https://twitter.com/WalkerSkyNews/status/793171357819437057



#BanCesareifnooppo

And Rick Wilson and Liz Mair too obviously.

Yes teach your children things like this. :/

 

[Dierce]

Pros: Child did not say "kill that bitch!"

https://twitter.com/WalkerSkyNews/status/793171357819437057



#BanCesareifnooppo

And Rick Wilson and Liz Mair too obviously.

And these racist dipshits have the audacity to call others savages. Bunch bastards poisoning the minds of innocent children.

 

[Spider from Mars]

is it still reasonable to say Hillary Clinton wins with a 7- 12 point lead?

I would be shocked if it wasn't in the 4-6 range.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Theres no reason to be worried right PoliGAF???

I should just stay away from 538, right??

Where are those other videos and bombshells the WSJ and Nesweek supposidly and or others still had??

We need another pussy grab moment.

Honestly, I would stay away from 538 at this point. The variation within the percentages will just stress you out, and it's really not even that important at the end of the day. There's not much to worry about as far as the Presidential election. The Senate is still up in the air, but the odds are still in our favor.

 

[whyamihere]

I mean if she doesn't win she can just use the fireworks to blow up Trump Tower.