• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

Status
Not open for further replies.
J

Joeytj

Banned
Hillary is hitting it out of the park right now in her speech. She is hitting Trump on the economic front and again saying that Trump blames everyone for all the wrong things he's done, things he does because he "thinks he can get away with it".

What do you guys think about that YouGov analysis (and others) that people are responding to polls based on their mood towards their candidate? But not actually switching their vote? That still leaves Clinton with a win, right?

Oh, and apparently AA turnout is picking up in Florida? So that's good news, I guess.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Hasphat'sAnts said:
Nate. Please stop. You're not making your model look any better with these "CLINTON IS IN PRECARIOUS POSITION" taeks.
Click to expand...

The article is reasonable, I think. If the final result is +2 popular vote, it's very possible she narrowly loses a few close states that cost her the electoral college.
 
M

Miles X

Member
Hasphat'sAnts said:
Nate. Please stop. You're not making your model look any better with these "CLINTON IS IN PRECARIOUS POSITION" taeks.
Click to expand...

It's still dropping, 71% now.

Do you remember at the start of Xbox 360, PS3 gen we had a website called NexGenWars? It counted console "sales" but was automated based on trends.

This is what 358 feels like right now. Going down 0.1% every 2 hours.
 
R

Retromelon

Member
- Some final thoughts as this election draws to a close -
It should bother the most ardent of conservatives that our greatest geopolitical enemy is interfering in our democracy and wants the democrats to lose
It should also bother them how many ties to russia he has and his lackluster support for NATO
Trump has pledged to transform the EPA, sharply curbing its funding and slashing its regulations. This should also be worrying, even if you want the size of government to decrease or you think the EPA is a burden on the backs of business, the job they do is of utmost importance and I don't have the faintest prayer in hell in the judgement of Donald fucking trump to be tactful and intelligent at examining what regulations are vital and what are expendable
Both candidates' records on the NSA are dogshit, albeit Madam Clinton paying marginal lip service to reforming that god damned place
The economy has a ways to go and mister Trump likes to call awareness to the many trillions of dollars in debt the government owes yet wants to lower taxes, which will cause the debt to explode and it is incredibly unlikely in my opinion that the economy will develop at such a rapid pace to offset that
No matter who wins, Syria will continue to be a mess

To conclude, everything is fucked or on the verge of being fucked, pls go vote k thx ;)
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Carpe Carnim said:
The State provides more in-depth data to approved outlets. AIF quoted in that Politico piece you mentioned I guess being one of them, along with the major parties.
Click to expand...

That's my issue. I'm not entirely convinced of this.

Politico (and elsewhere, really- it's not hard to find) refers to AIF as a conservative business group, which they pretty much are. Their twitter feed has a lot about florida business, but virtually no polling anywhere- and when they do conduct a poll, it's usually in partnership with someone else, typically TelOpinion research.

Their polls aren't really bad, just infrequent- but I can't find anyone else anywhere throwing out that 402K and 55% number. it all leads back to AIF and politico. If this were an official figure, it should be a lot more common than it is.

On top of that, fivethirtyeight posted this article yesterday with these figures

florida_zpsng5vhz0k.png


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clintons-coalition-hispanic-support-is-up-black-turnout-is-down/

538 has the early vote between 76 and 87% of the 2012 total in the five largest counties with latino populations.

a similar comparison of the early vote in the five largest AA counties has participation between 58% at the low end and 78% at the high end. This isnt spectacular, but it's a far cry from the 55% number that AIF came up with- unless AA turnout is substantially, drastically down in the counties other than the five largest.

Below the hispanic turnout certainly- but we're looking at a record breaking year there due to recent immigration. It was going to be over 2012 regardless.

I don't doubt it's down vs. 2012, but that 55% number seems WAY too low. AIF even had it below the asian turnout in the state, and asians on average have voted a full 15% points below black voters since the 1990s. If there were something to cause numbers to crater THAT badly we'd be seeing it elsewhere- and so far we aren't. That kind of cratering has been specific to Florida, and only using the numbers put out by AIF.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Hasphat'sAnts said:
Nate. Please stop. You're not making your model look any better with these "CLINTON IS IN PRECARIOUS POSITION" taeks.
Click to expand...

It's bad punditry and part of the problem I've had with 538 this cycle. And no, not just because "it's not things I want to hear."

Y2Kev said:
The article is reasonable, I think. If the final result is +2 popular vote, it's very possible she narrowly loses a few close states that cost her the electoral college.
Click to expand...

At +2, which Obama states would she lose? Iowa and Ohio for sure. Then? We know that Nevada is probablg worse for Trump than public polling suggests. And without that he needs Wisconsin and New Hampshire, which might seem demographically unfriendly until you look at the number of educated white voters.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
whyamihere said:
I also don't buy that Hillary is going to Michigan for downballot. Why go to Detroit then?

The only reason I could see this besides the fact that it's not really competitive is that there is little to no early vote in Michigan. Same with Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, where she could also be going. You only get one chance to do it right in those 3 states versus getting good data every day where you can adjust accordingly.

I think it's reasonable to assume that Michigan isn't actually a swing state but is one where she probably should visit given the fact that they really only have one chance to get it right. That's why she's also going to PA.

Or it's a 2 point race there!
Click to expand...

Every recent Michigan poll is like Hillary by high single-digits.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Nazgul_Hunter said:
If that was really true and precarious, his poll plus model should show that no? Pure trash
Click to expand...

He's also now playing pundit on twitter. Yes, Trump should be in Wisconsin and Michigan! That's what Republicans should be doing at 11:59 of an election cycle! No, Hillary going to Arizona is not a bad use of her time, because that's with the implicit assumption of TRENDZ! and, with all due respect, their data is better than your public polls.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Plinko said:
Every recent Michigan poll is like Hillary by high single-digits.
Click to expand...
Michigan polls are particularly awful though, and Clinton could be seeing something in her own internals that suggest it needs shoring up.

I don't think it's that big of a deal though, like whyamihere said MI not having early voting could also be a factor. They only have one chance to get it right.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
whyamihere said:
It's bad punditry and part of the problem I've had with 538 this cycle. And no, not just because "it's not things I want to hear."



At +2, which Obama states would she lose? Iowa and Ohio for sure. Then? We know that Nevada is probablg worse for Trump than public polling suggests. And without that he needs Wisconsin and New Hampshire, which might seem demographically unfriendly until you look at the number of educated white voters.
Click to expand...

The point is just that it's not "secure." It's precarious. I think it's a fair term. Believe me, I want nothing more than to think it's impossible for him to win but if the Wisconsin poll shows like Clinton +2 tomorrow you can definitely bet he can win!
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Plinko said:
Every recent Michigan poll is like Hillary by high single-digits.
Click to expand...

My only caveat is that polling in Michigan is, for some reason, uniformly terrible. I think it's just to deny Trump any sneak comeback and give the state some love since she hasn't been there in a few months, but it's worth watching.

My guess is it could be tighter than the public polls IMO.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Y2Kev said:
The point is just that it's not "secure." It's precarious. I think it's a fair term. Believe me, I want nothing more than to think it's impossible for him to win but if the Wisconsin poll shows like Clinton +2 tomorrow you can definitely bet he can win!
Click to expand...

One poll from Wisconsin would not convince me that Trump can win when no action from the Clinton campaign has signaled they're worried about Wisconsin, compared to other Obama states like Ohio and Florida.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Kamala Harris came to my university today and took a picture with us. Her speech was short but it was pretty good.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Outdoor Miner said:
I unfollowed Nate just now. He's basically a click bait troll at this point.
Click to expand...

I regret ever defending him this cycle. Their model(s) and MO isn't what it once was.

Context-free early voting update, we've hit 60% of 2012's early vote with a week to go. ~4m were recorded today, from yesterday and probably a bit of weekend catch up, to a total of 27.7m. I'm not sure how that squares to 2012 at the same point in time, but it seems tracking to blow past it with a couple days to spare.
 
D

Dierce

Member
Is there any hope that in a century conservatives will cease to be a dominant political force? If that is the case I was born in the wrong era.
 
C

Chezzymann

Member
BrokenFiction said:
Jeff Gauvin ‏@JeffersonObama 3h3 hours ago

#POLLS 11/1 3PM

■REU C+6
■ABC T+1
■SVM C+7
■CNBC C+10
■NOLA C+2
■AP C+14
■PEW C+6
■SU C+9
■DC C+12
■FOX C+5
■QUI C+7
■BLO C+9
■CBS C+9

Get out and vote!
Click to expand...


Seems like its missing ones like YouGov/Economist with Clinton +3, politico with clinton +3, UPI with clinton +1, IDB with clinton +1. Unless those are daily tracking polls
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
GhaleonEB said:
I regret ever defending him this cycle. Their model(s) and MO isn't what it once was.

Context-free early voting update, we've hit 60% of 2012's early vote with a week to go. ~4m were recorded today, from yesterday and probably a bit of weekend catch up, to a total of 27.7m. I'm not sure how that squares to 2012 at the same point in time, but it seems tracking to blow past it with a couple days to spare.
Click to expand...
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...y-early-voting-nearly-twice-high-2012-n676391

Week out from election day

2012: 13.5 million
2016: 26.2 million

Wouldn't be surprised if we hit 50 million.
 
C

Cerium

Member
Oblivion said:
This was interesting:



http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/pew-clinton-trump-supporters-respect-230585

I'm legit shocked that more Trump supporters are willing to respect Hillary voters than the reverse. What''s up with that?
Click to expand...

Well, they are deplorable.

Tall4Life said:
https://www.facebook.com/drjillstein/posts/1342946029078917

I don't know why there wasn't a thread, posted yesterday.
Click to expand...

Makai said:
Amazing. one sec.
Click to expand...

Iolo said:
She finally got Putin's final orders.
Click to expand...
Doc-Rivers-In-Disbelief-GIF.gif
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
The last two weeks of Jill Stein's campaign has been her complaining about John Oliver covering her after the prior 6 months of her campaign was her complaining about the media not covering her.

https: //www.facebook.com/drjillstein/videos/1340906079282912/

I know you're all sick of hearing about Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, and that you probably don't want to hear me going after John Oliver again.
But I would like you to watch this video from TYT Network's, The Jimmy Dore Show. We need to begin having honest conversations about the oppressive tactics corporate comedians continue to do towards already-marginalized groups of people.
This country was built on oppressing The Other (Blacks and indigenous people) and I'm not going to stand for more of this while we deal with major crises in this country that could determine whether we'll even survive as a species.
Read my statement about how deceptive comedy continues to silence anyone who speaks out against it: jill2016.com/oliveremail
Click to expand...

Jill, John Oliver saying you don't understand QE and that you appease 9/11 Truthers is not the fucking Trail of Tears. Do you know how to feel shame?
 
C

Chumly

Member
T

TumblingHippo

Member
I'd imagine if Trump wins, early voting is going to be culled way more than it already has.

Heck if Hillary wins they're going to try and cut it more.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher
338 339 340 341 342
17K
2M
UselessNapkin replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
395 396 397 398 399
20K
2M
RDreamer replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
396 397 398 399 400
20K
2M
ShironRedshift replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why
393 394 395 396 397
20K
2M
Zaraki_Kenpachi replied
  • Locked
Poligaf 2017 |OT| It Almost Isn't Fair
9
4K
Bonen no Max'd replied
Top Bottom