I thought we saw a massive rise in registering though??
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/how-many-registered-voters-are-in-america-2016-229993
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I thought we saw a massive rise in registering though??
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/how-many-registered-voters-are-in-america-2016-229993
whyamihere
Banned
Speaking of Wisconsin, I'm going to say something now before the actual MULaw poll comes out tomorrow and I'm not accused of making excuses or something: One of the really bad things about having so few public polls is that it amplifies every single poll. Take the MULaw poll. Supposedly great pollster (I hate the term "gold standard"). But what happens if they get the sample wrong? Wisconsin is a white state, so it's potentially harder than, say, Florida or North Carolina to correct for a potentially non-reflective sample.
But let's say that the poll comes back tomorrow and it's Clinton +1 or even Trump +1. We don't have 7 other pollsters that also polled Wisconsin to let us know if this is on the mark or if it's an outlier or maybe that we should've been paying more attention to Wisconsin all along. This is probably the only poll of Wisconsin we're going to get before Election Day. That's kind of a problem.
But let's say that the poll comes back tomorrow and it's Clinton +1 or even Trump +1. We don't have 7 other pollsters that also polled Wisconsin to let us know if this is on the mark or if it's an outlier or maybe that we should've been paying more attention to Wisconsin all along. This is probably the only poll of Wisconsin we're going to get before Election Day. That's kind of a problem.
Red states will without a doubt be pushing for even stronger voter ID laws, probably even a drug test before you vote too.
A Link to the Past
Banned
So have the emails been affecting things that much?
Hasphat'sAnts
Member
I agree that if the poll shows Wisconsin +2 then we're no longer in good shape, but considering that the last MU poll had her up 7 when the national polls had her pegged at around a 6 point lead, a Wisconsin +2 indicates a more fundamental shift than what his scenario's implying here. It would mean that the race has turned into a dead heat in the national polls rather than what he suggests, which is a +2 point lead nationally.
Lord Frieza
Member
A lot of the more vocal Trump supporters are raving assholes. Most Clinton supporters, even vocal ones, act like a human being. It's honestly not hard for me to understand.
Carpe Carnim
Member
There's only about 150mil registered voters in the US.
Ah ok, I guess that link is wrong? Perhaps they mean total eligible to register to vote?
Does look like we're gonna have a huge jump over 2012 total votes though.
User 463088
Banned
.1) Should I be worried about ::ne specific poll with no other evidence to support its trends :::?
No.
2) But what if.....
No.
3) Okay, but what if....
No.
4) But Nate....
Nate is an idiot.
5) Are you sure?
Yes.
6) Should I worry about....
No. You should vote, and then phone bank, or volunteer, or drive someone to the polls. Oh, and also get off CNN and Twitter and play with children in nature.
All is lost.
GregLombardi
Member
My friend is bedwetting via group text and saying florida and north carolina have flipped to trump and colorado down to single digit support.
Can someone please tell me something to tell him to quiet his insanities?
Can someone please tell me something to tell him to quiet his insanities?
Manmademan
Member
Nailed it. The politico article goes on to say when you just look at college educated clinton voters, that 58% number goes up to 66%.
Generally college makes you less tolerant of racist bigots, because you're exposed to more diversity.
A Link to the Past
Banned
Darn
Hasphat'sAnts
Member
Good thing that the campaigns themselves spend massive amounts of money to do their own internal polling. Well, one of them at least.
If they're not yet worried about Wisconsin, we shouldn't be.
Like Whyamihere said though, it's probably going to be the only good WI poll until the election and considering how noisy polling is by nature, we may not be able to infer too much from it regardless. One thing we do know is that Trump has never lead in a WI poll all cycle including landline only polls from partisan pollsters. I think we're fine there but it's good to see the Clinton campaign buying ads and sending everyone everywhere to shore up even the "safe" states.
Tell your friend to phonebank or canvass.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1305415
Endorsed was too strong of a word. I think this kinda makes sense since Democratic victory is bad for Greens.
Endorsed was too strong of a word. I think this kinda makes sense since Democratic victory is bad for Greens.
nature boy
Member
Bedwetting epidemic going around
JetBlackPanda
Member
+2 for the Queen in Utah today guys!
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
"First Hitler, then us!" would make more sense if your party had literally anything going for it in terms of political success.
Hobbestetrician
Member
I saw Obama speak on my campus (Go Green!) about a week or so before the '08 election.You mean the woman going to Michigan on Friday?
Did Obama ever go there?
He would win Michigan a week later by 16 points.
It has been rather crazy in here the past 24-48 hours
Aaron Strife
Banned
No, there are over 200 million registered voters in the U.S., but it's highly unlikely that many will vote or even close to that many.
There are a little under 250 million eligible voters in total.
Someone projected 149 million which seems a little too high. I'd say 140 million at most.
There are a little under 250 million eligible voters in total.
Someone projected 149 million which seems a little too high. I'd say 140 million at most.
There were 146m registered voters in 2012 and 127m voted?? Is that correct?
Carpe Carnim
Member
Yeah, total ELIGIBLE (18+, non-felon, alive) is like 220mil. In 2012 we had only 126mil actually vote. That's a disgrace, and we should do something to increase it.
User 463088
Banned
Also, just to jump off this, they've been noisy as hell too, MULaw--from oldest to newest:
+9
+4
+15
+3
+2
+4
Here are their 2012 numbers, again, oldest to newest
+6
+8
+5
+3
+14
+11
+1
+8
whyamihere
Banned
I'm not worried about Wisconsin. I'm annoyed that I personally have less data than I used to. And it's also why, probably, watching campaign movements will be more important than in the past.
Seems like the majority (85+) of registered voters vote, why have we seen such a huge influx of registered voters and why is that not going to translate into as big a jump in actual votes?
I'd think at least 160m if 200m+ are registered?
Of course, that goes both ways. If mulaw comes back with Clinton +8, we don't know if it's an outlier either!
whyamihere
Banned
And I know I just shitted on Nate, but there's also some value to his model adding in some degree of uncertainty, especially since we have such few polls.
That's why I'm posting it now to keep me honest!
That's why I'm posting it now to keep me honest!
How do we know that his model is faulty this year considering it actually hasn't been tested yet?
Which one was it?
Randolph Freelander
Member
That's a dumb guide, you didn't specify which Nate.
Nazgul_Hunter
Member
Our kids are watching with mocking the disabled reporter.
User 463088
Banned
Going to be a new Florida poll breaking on Lawerence at 10:00 on MSNBC. From the tweets, seems like it'll be good for Hillary.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
AM or PM? EST or Central?
10 pm EST. He's on MSNBC.
Carpe Carnim
Member
What's good in context? +3-4? Also, do we know the pollster and methodology? Do you have the Powerball numbers?
Who is 'she"?
metalslimer
Member
Stop watching CNN!
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