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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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U

User 463088

Banned
So, this isn't just "Did you vote yes/no." They're actually matching the data we have about who voted, and then contacting directly. This is like an exit poll, but it's matching 1:1 with voters based on demographics.

She's getting 28% of GOP voters.
Trump is only getting 6% of Dems.
The 28% are going back to Rubio down ballot.

I guarantee you, these are Republican women and Cubans.
 
B

Breads

Banned
SexyFish said:
She's winning 28% of registered Republicans in early voting in Florida.

H
O
L
Y


FUCK
Click to expand...

Convinced a pretty significant portion of my family/ friends (hispanic/ conservative) how bad a person Trump was for poc and got several of them to vote for HRC.

So yeah I can definitely see how this happened.
 
C

Cerium

Member
adam387 said:
So, this isn't just "Did you vote yes/no." They're actually matching the data we have about who voted, and then contacting directly. This is like an exit poll, but it's matching 1:1 with voters based on demographics.

She's getting 28% of GOP voters.
Trump is only getting 6% of Dems.
The 28% are going back to Rubio down ballot.

I guarantee you, these are Republican women and Cubans.
Click to expand...

Again I find it puzzling how that adds up to only an 8 point lead.
 
B

BigAl1992

Member
brianmcdoogle said:
I sort of have semi insider information from sort of higher up Republicans in a supposed swing state. What's the protocol on me posting stuff like that, or PMing someone to do it for me so it doesn't trace a directly back to me? It is nothing major, but it suggests a senate race and a state Democrats were hoping to win are now out of reach thanks to the Comey stuff. Nothing really crucial because it was never in Clinton's path to 270, but it would have been a nice feather in the cap. Anyone has any questions on it, I can PM, but I'd rather do it privately.
Click to expand...

Quote it as a hidden e-mail link, so it's not out in the open i believe is what's done in the gaming forum for major news or talk to a mod if you're twitchy about it. Otherwise PM people instead if they're interested under the condition they tell no one about it (case in point - I'm not living in America, so all I have to do is keep my mouth shut on here, but I'd still find it fascinating myself to know).
 
T

TumblingHippo

Member
Whether Hillary or Trump
barf
wins, there's going to be a huge discussion on why the polls were so wacky.

I'm talking about why they swung so much. I know there's been discussion about it in this thread but I wonder how much the pollsters will try and analyze every detail.
 
B

Beer Monkey

Member
Nafai1123 said:
8 points in FL? Color me skeptical.
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Their methodology seems pretty good at first glance.

The survey reached 311 respondents who voted early in the 2016 general election, either absentee, by mail, or in-person, according to data from the Florida Secretary of State that was matched back to the TargetSmart voter file. These early vote data were weighted to reflect population parameters on TargetSmart Partisanship Score, TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score, age, gender, party registration and media market of the overall population of early voters in Florida who had participated as of October 31.

The survey reached 407 respondents who had NOT voted early in the 2016 general election, either absentee, by mail, or in-person, according to data from the Florida Secretary of State that was matched back to the TargetSmart voter file. These non-early vote data were weighted using a two-step process to yield a likely voter model. First, the non-early vote sample was weighted to reflect population parameters on TargetSmart Partisanship Score, TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score, age, gender, party registration and media market of the overall population of all registered voters in Florida who had NOT participated as of October 31. Then, to derive a likely voter model, a second round of weighting was employed on the non-early vote sample only, in which weights were assigned to each respondent in proportion to their TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout score, with higher weights being assigned to respondents with a higher likelihood to vote, and lower weights being assigned to respondents with a lower likelihood to vote.
Click to expand...

Will be interesting to see how the next FL polls come in.

Grexeno said:
He can't and he never could: the ticket-splitting was always going to be his doom. He needed like a 7 point Hillary win in Florida and lol anyone winning Florida by 7.
Click to expand...

I agree that fighting Rubio and Portman would be like flushing money down the toilet.
 
T

Teggy

Member
I mean, this would be great but why isn't it coming out in other polls? Spanish speakers, maybe? And I assume this is a phenomenon limited to Florida?
 
H

Hasphat'sAnts

Member
Teggy said:
I mean, this would be great but why isn't it coming out in other polls? Spanish speakers, maybe? And I assume this is a phenomenon limited to Florida?
Click to expand...

Spanish speakers is a known effect for states like FL and NV, so it would be pretty negligent for polls to not account for it at this point.

Zackat said:
I guess the reaching out to moderate republicans was a good idea after all.
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Eh, debatable. Giving moderate Republicans an out was not particularly helpful for these senate races. That's why you saw her reversing course in the last month or so.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
BigJonsson said:
I'm shocked that the Mosul offensive has barely been on CNN/MSNBC, it's a pretty big deal
Click to expand...

"Defeat ISIS" just means "get the Muslims away from me because brown people scare me."

No one cares about the reality of ISIS's operations, the people that care about "terrorism" just care about the fact that there are Muslims in the United States and they don't like Muslims.
 
T

TheFatOne

Member
adam387 said:
So, this isn't just "Did you vote yes/no." They're actually matching the data we have about who voted, and then contacting directly. This is like an exit poll, but it's matching 1:1 with voters based on demographics.

She's getting 28% of GOP voters.
Trump is only getting 6% of Dems.
The 28% are going back to Rubio down ballot.

I guarantee you, these are Republican women and Cubans.
Click to expand...

My first thought were Cubans moving towards Dems. Now the interesting thing if this is true is this just a one off for Cubans in Florida or is this the tipping point for Cubans in Florida. I remember reading way back when that young Cuban voters are leaning Dems, but I wonder if some of the older Cubans are moving towards Dems this election as well.
 
Z

Zackat

Member
Sianos said:
one of them is me

the struggles of having a super "conservative" family
Click to expand...

58993220.jpg
 
I

Iolo

Member
Nah, Murphy is toast. However, we had anecdotal evidence that Rubio was trying to turn out Clinton voters who would ticket split, if I recall correctly.
 
B

BigJonsson

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
"Defeat ISIS" just means "get the Muslims away from me because brown people scare me."

No one cares about the reality of ISIS's operations, the people that care about "terrorism" just care about the fact that there are Muslims in the United States and they don't like Muslims.
Click to expand...


The election takes all the air
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Not to dampen the mood:

@steveschale
Yo America, there is no universe where HRC is +8 in FL. Sorry to disappoint.

I think she is narrowly up, but Dems still have to GOTV.
Click to expand...

Gotta agree with Steve here. Though there's no way to know until the day of what those Republicans are doing.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Miles X said:
Has any presidential candidate in any state captured that much of the opposition before??
Click to expand...

I wouldn't be surprised if the record was in 1964. Pretty much everyone in the Deep South was a Democrat, yet it was by far Goldwater's strongest region. He won over 87% of the vote in Mississippi.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
I don't think she's ahead by 8 in Florida. However, their methodology does seem pretty sound. I think she is up big in the early vote, though. I think she's ahead among NPA.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
Schale throwing cold water on this, and for good reason. Sample size is really small and once you start cutting out subsamples the MOE goes through the roof.

good poll, but don't think Hillary is going to win GOP early vote like that.
 
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