Walker_Boh
Member
Hey PoliGaf, I know it doesn't mean much but I wanted to say +1 for the queen in Idaho.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
- Thread starter eBay Huckster
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metalslimer
Member
Not to dampen the mood:
Gotta agree with Steve here. Though there's no way to know until the day of what those Republicans are doing.
I've been saying 4 for a long time and I still think that will hold up.
I would be surprised if it's less than 1% again.
Just donated again damn it. The emails have gotten to me...
Box of Kittens
Banned
Whether or not a person voted is public record.
Which is how Cruz got the information for those "Voting Violation" mailers. When I was living in Wisconsin we got similar mailers (I think from a PAC) listing whether we and various others in out neighborhood had voted in recent elections.
Abinash117
Member
Not to dampen the mood:
Gotta agree with Steve here. Though there's no way to know until the day of what those Republicans are doing.
The early vote part is making it pretty high, non early is very close.
User 463088
Banned
See, this is why Democrats are the worst. If there was a poll showing Trump up by 2, they'd be screaming MAGA and all that shit.
Dems have to fucking wave it away because we are never happy.
Dems have to fucking wave it away because we are never happy.
I agree she's not ahead by 8, but, I'm willing to entertain some of their early voting sample
whyamihere
Banned
Again, with so little polling, it's hard to say. We don't have a deluge of polling to tell us where the race in Florida probably is!
Hey PoliGaf, I know it doesn't mean much but I wanted to say +1 for the queen in Idaho.
Not enough. Get to +10 at least like the rest of us
Whether or not a person voted is public record.
But why? Seems it should be private.
nature boy
Member
Mega Cohn throwing shade at the poll
David Rothschild ‏@DavMicRot 41s41 seconds ago
(1) reasonable method, but a hybrid/untested method (2) 28% GOP cross-over is from registered voters, not identified voters, so not crazy
See, this is why Democrats are the worst. If there was a poll showing Trump up by 2, they'd be screaming MAGA and all that shit.
Dems have to fucking wave it away because we are never happy.
I agree she's not ahead by 8, but, I'm willing to entertain some of their early voting sample
Damn libs and their liking of hard evidence.
metalslimer
Member
Mega Cohn throwing shade at the poll
=( well I'm not going to be a hypocrite. The hopium was nice while it lasted
Beer Monkey
Member
So anyone can call up the state and find out if I voted? That's kind of creepy and seems wrong, no?
It's actually really important for transparency. I can make a CSV file of all 108 people who voted in my precinct in 2012. I can contact them and ask them if they actually voted. If there's a precinct that gets zero votes for Hillary, election fraud could be signaled if someone in that precinct disputes it, for example. Note that while the Romney camp liked to claim that precincts that gave him zero votes in Cleveland and Philly meant something is fishy, not one voter for Romney came forward from one of those precincts.
Go check out your county's Board of Election web page, see what data you can pull.
Abinash117
Member
This lines up with other pollsters who polled early voters in some other states. She is up by double digits.
Hasphat'sAnts
Member
Dammit Nate!
I don't even know who's the good Nate and who's the bad Nate anymore!
I don't even know who's the good Nate and who's the bad Nate anymore!
balladofwindfishes
Member
Bush in 2000 got over 300,000 Democrats to vote for him, and is one of the main reasons he won that year.
So it's not unprecedented in Florida for a large block of one party to vote for the other for president.
So it's not unprecedented in Florida for a large block of one party to vote for the other for president.
Bush in 2000 got over 300,000 Democrats to vote for him, and is one of the main reasons he won that year.
So it's not unprecedented in Florida for a large block of one party to vote for the other for president.
I was too young then, but how? How'd he do it lol
Mega Cohn throwing shade at the poll
Is he saying that the 28% is legit?
how did we end up having to choose between Grayson and Murphy for Florida senate this year? sad.
I think because Florida dems are kinda shitty in general.
Felix Lighter
Member
I think there are plenty of Republicans that don't see Trump as a Republican but to go as far as voting for Hillary, that is a big step. If that number is accurate, that has to be terrifying for the GOP beyond this election. Their party has disenfranchised them to the point of voting for a Democratic Presidential candidate in these partisan times. They may not full come back on board.
Now we just need to worry about all those Stein supporters she inspired to vote Trump!
Now we just need to worry about all those Stein supporters she inspired to vote Trump!
TestOfTide
Banned
Bill Weld is a nice guy. I don't know his personal politics, but he seems like a decent human being. He called Hillary a person of "high moral character" and that she is super competent and qualified. He is a decent fellow.
He also is a good man who rightfully ratted out a corrupt Attorney General back in the 80s.
I REALLY want Hillary or Obama to give Weld the FBI director position after Comey inevitably vacates that position.
nature boy
Member
Is he saying that the 28% is legit?
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 4m4 minutes ago Washington, DC
Clinton's not winning 28% of registered Republican early voters in Florida. Just saying.
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 2m2 minutes ago Washington, DC
Across the five Upshot/Siena polls of NC/FL/PA, Trump led 79 to 9 percent among registered Republicans. Margin was 80-8 percent in Florida.
Shao Kahn on the Lawn
Member
Not to dampen the mood:
Gotta agree with Steve here. Though there's no way to know until the day of what those Republicans are doing.
Word. If we reject an outlier poll showing Trump up +1 nationally, we shouldn't get our panties wet over an outlier showing HRC up +8 in Florida. This isn't over until that Cheeto-covered shit is shamed into seclusion on November 9th.
Poodlestrike
Banned
With that share of Republicans how is she only up 8?
I'm guessing either RV/LV shenanigans or... and I feel a little dirty saying this in a serious context... shy Clinton voters. It's one thing to pull the lever in the box, it's another to say you're going to pull the lever where your family & whatnot can hear.
ed: or, in a more likely outcome, the poll is faulty.
Thanks, Nate Cohn. Thanks for stomping on my dreams.
GoldenEye 007
Member
I was too young then, but how? How'd he do it lol
lots of people felt like they could have a beer with bush
User 463088
Banned
Ya, no. There's been no hard evidence in this thread for days, but people keep setting their hair on fire.Damn libs and their liking of hard evidence.
Manmademan
Member
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 4m4 minutes ago Washington, DC
Clinton's not winning 28% of registered Republican early voters in Florida. Just saying.
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 2m2 minutes ago Washington, DC
Across the five Upshot/Siena polls of NC/FL/PA, Trump led 79 to 9 percent among registered Republicans. Margin was 80-8 percent in Florida.
yeah, But Upshot also had that completely ridiculous Trump +4 result in FL so...
lots of people felt like they could have a beer with bush
I guess it really just comes to that for a lot of people.
Carpe Carnim
Member
I was too young then, but how? How'd he do it lol
Let me tell you a tale of something called "Butterfly Ballots" and hanging/pregnant chads
Manmademan
Member
I guess it really just comes to that for a lot of people.
of course it is.
Clinton is vastly more qualified for the office in every way one could possibly articulate- but there is still no shortage of people who will not vote for her because they "just don't trust her."
most people are voting for class president, not leader of the free world.
JesseEwiak
Member
I was too young then, but how? How'd he do it lol
Lots of "Democrats" who hadn't voted for a Democrat for POTUS since Carter.
Jessie Opoien ‏@jessieopie 2h2 hours ago Wisconsin, USA
.@RonJohnsonWI tells @BeloitDailyNews he believes @HillaryClinton should be impeached if elected president http://m.beloitdailynews.com/mobile...cle_e6451d9c-a03c-11e6-b059-e3910e7e9427.html
.
Hasphat'sAnts
Member
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 4m4 minutes ago Washington, DC
Clinton's not winning 28% of registered Republican early voters in Florida. Just saying.
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 2m2 minutes ago Washington, DC
Across the five Upshot/Siena polls of NC/FL/PA, Trump led 79 to 9 percent among registered Republicans. Margin was 80-8 percent in Florida.
This is assuming that folks who vote early break down consistently compared to the general electorate.
Again, 28% seems far fetched, but not so far fetched that Hill is significantly outperforming that 80-8 split Nate's referencing.
User 463088
Banned
Ugh. Don't even.Let me tell you a tale of something called "Butterfly Ballots" and hanging/pregnant chads
So, just wanting to throw this out there:
If you're unwilling to take this FL+8 at face value, maybe don't take a NC +7 at face value either!?
excelsiorlef
Member
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1305415
Endorsed was too strong of a word. I think this kinda makes sense since Democratic victory is bad for Greens.
Don't fucking defend that shit.
It's goddamn nonsense.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I mean... This is absolutely the Republican position.
When the GOP controls the House and Senate in 2019, she will be impeached for... something.
I was too young then, but how? How'd he do it lol
Bush in 2000 ran as a moderate. Gore ran away from Clinton, who was still popular despite the sex scandals. People were naive and complacent. Shit happens.
ThLunarian
Member
+1 for Hillary, Cooper, and Ross in NC today (+2 including fiancée)
Fragamemnon
Member
yeah, But Upshot also had that completely ridiculous Trump +4 result in FL so...
The partisan split he mentioned is pretty standard and in keeping with historical norms. Trump was wavering in some polling this cycle but I can't imagine it would be by much (though it wouldn't have to).
Erica Werner
‏@ericawerner
Joe Heck, who un-endorsed Trump to boos, now says he is qualified and will be a "good commander in chief".
http://news3lv.com/news/local/full-interview-one-on-one-with-joe-heck-talking-trump-and-a-lot-more
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