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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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Nazgul_Hunter

Member
Fragamemnon said:
Could get called really early if true. Clinton will have a double-digit lead going into election day with likely 55-60% of the vote already in. Trump simply won't have enough votes in the more favorable parts of the state to make up for it.
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Everyone's drawing their eyes to the D vs. R number and the AA number; but unaffiliated voters are actually UP this year. My assumption is they're mostly disillusioned Rs who might split ticket vote.
 
M

Maxim726X

Member
Zukkoyaki said:
Even GOP Pollsters having Clinton at a steady lead is very, very good for us. Based on what Hardwood has posted today (including opinions from GOP, DEM and Non-Partisans) sounds like a 4-5 point lead is likely.
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Even if it isn't that high- Until we start seeing some serious movement in her firewall states, it's all noise. Doesn't really matter.
 
T

Teggy

Member
CNN has seen their ratings improve during the election, I think they are trying to push as far center right as they can to pull Fox News viewers.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Nazgul_Hunter said:
Everyone's drawing their eyes to the D vs. R number and the AA number; but unaffiliated voters are actually UP this year. My assumption is they're mostly disillusioned Rs who might split ticket vote.
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A lot of data also suggesting they're young and first-time voters which means they're likely to skew dem.
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
Lord Frieza said:
I wonder if the witch hunting on Clinton will some day backfire on the GOP, or if the narrative is set. Like, if her first term isn't a complete disaster, and maybe manages to do something noticeably good for the country, if the public will start becoming sympathetic to the increasingly transparent attacks on her. Maybe too optimistic of me to think about, though.
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Given how successful their strategy of "break government, then run against broken government" has been, I see no reason why they won't try the same thing with Hillary. An "impeach Hillary because she's corrupt/impeachment has proven she's corrupt" is a strategy I could see them buying into very easily. Lord knows the Andrea Mitchells of the media won't hold them accountable.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Zukkoyaki said:
Now these are going to cause unnecessary panic, their polls have been friendlier to Trump than anyone else's including most landline only ones.
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CNN/ORC hasn't been particularly kind to Clinton but they're a major legit pollster. Should be placed in context but it's the first non-garbage polling in a while.
 
B

Barzul

Member
Teggy said:
CNN has seen their ratings improve during the election, I think they are trying to push as far center right as they can to pull Fox News viewers.
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Yeah they even beat Fox in key demos for like a month. Think this is going to be their new normal. Trump is sort of an anomaly though, I don't think we're going to see another candidate that will get away with as much as he has. We'll see though.
 
M

MetalGearZed

Member
CCS said:
I seem to remember seeing some analysis that if gay marriage had only been legalised by individual referenda in every state, then Mississippi would likely end up being the last state to legalise it.
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i believe it. SCOTUS and the executive branch are the only things keeping this state in the 21st century
 
V

Veritigo_X

Member
NeoXChaos said:
interesting.
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Is the GOP pollster this guy?

Zj97U9h.jpg
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Joe Shlabotnik said:
CNN/ORC hasn't been particularly kind to Clinton but they're a major legit pollster. Should be placed in context but it's the first non-garbage polling in a while.
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They're a legit pollster for sure but even Nate Silver has noticed they've have had about a 2-3 point R-lean this year.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Lord Frieza said:
Yeah, probably right, but I do wonder if there's a breaking point for the majority about this stuff if she has a good first term. But yeah, probably too much to hope for.
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I envy your optimism. Obama's output and economic numbers are, arguably, enough to put his face on Rushmore. But look how Conservatives and Deplorables tell us all we're living in Hell.

They're gonna impeach her in '17-18, for whatever reason they need to invent to keep the red meat flowing. The point is to discourage voters, depress the electorate the best they can, and then win on the margins while fighting decades old "policies" to keep any progress stymied.

Short of violent mobs, or magical party realignments they won't change. Get used to the idea of legislative trench warfare until demographics can overtake the Revanchist strategies
 
L

Lord Frieza

Member
Teggy said:
CNN has seen their ratings improve during the election, I think they are trying to push as far center right as they can to pull Fox News viewers.
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Barzul said:
Yeah they even beat Fox in key demos for like a month. Think this is going to be their new normal. Trump is sort of an anomaly though, I don't think we're going to see another candidate that will get away with as much as he has. We'll see though.
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I mean, this isn't all that new honestly. CNN, despite being label the 'liberal' network and all, has always been more moderate and overall conservative. I haven't been following them that closely this election, but it doesn't seem all that different to me now.
 
D

Debirudog

Member
it seems like the only way to achieve high ratings is to throw away all sense of intergrity out the window and just fabricate bullshit. In other words, become more sensationalist like Fox News.
 
A

alternade

Member
Lord Frieza said:
I wonder if the witch hunting on Clinton will some day backfire on the GOP, or if the narrative is set. Like, if her first term isn't a complete disaster, and maybe manages to do something noticeably good for the country, if the public will start becoming sympathetic to the increasingly transparent attacks on her. Maybe too optimistic of me to think about, though.
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As long as she has a vagina and her last name is Clinton, the GOP will never relent in their attacks and the uneducated masses will continue to eat it up. Sad but true.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
The FL time there might as well be a ? since I'm sure there will be screw-ups in South FL like always and people will be voting well after polls were supposed to close.
 
L

Lord Frieza

Member
Carpe Carnim said:
I envy your optimism. Obama's output and economic numbers are, arguably, enough to put his face on Rushmore. But look how Conservatives and Deplorables tell us all we're living in Hell.

They're gonna impeach her in '17-18, for whatever reason they need to invent to keep the red meat flowing. The point is to discourage voters, depress the electorate the best they can, and then win on the margins while fighting decades old "policies" to keep any progress stymied.

Short of violent mobs, or magical party realignments they won't change. Get used to the idea of legislative trench warfare until demographics can overtake the Revanchist strategies
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Yeah, but it's different than Obama. This is something that's been going on and on for years, where as with Obama he was pretty much unknown before his Presidency. Like I said, it probably isn't something that realistic, but I do wonder if just endless persecution with shift the general public's (not the deplorable and ultra conservative, not talking about them) outlook on things, especially as things are becoming so transparent.
 
B

Blader

Member
Debirudog said:
I'm REALLY gonna miss the days of no drama Obama...
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Huh?

Birth certificate, bailout, Obamacare/website, Syria red line, Benghazi... there has been no shortage of drama drummed up the GOP and the media over the last eight years aimed at Obama. A lack of real personal scandals doesn't stop anyone from imagining one.
 
N

nature boy

Member
This must be the poll that the Trump campaign is using to campaign in Michigan (other than how to get to 270):

http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/02/new-poll-clinton-45-trump-44-in-michigan/

New Poll: Clinton 45%, Trump 44% In Michigan

Republican nominee Donald Trump is polling just one percentage point behind Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in Michigan, according to a new poll from Strategic National.

The Michigan statewide poll revealed essentially a dead heat in a state that has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. Clinton received 45 percent support, while Trump received 44 percent. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson received 5 percent support, while Green party nominee Jill Stein received 2 percent. Two percent of the respondents said that they were supporting someone else, and another two percent were still undecided.

The survey, conducted by Strategic National, a Republican leaning consulting firm based in Michigan, contacted 500 likely voters in the State of Michigan on Oct. 29 and the 30. The survey reported that 41 percent of the respondents were affiliated with the Democratic Party, while 36 percent affiliated with the GOP.

The latest news comes as the Trump campaign makes a major push for the Mitten State, going against the longstanding media narrative that the state was unattainable for a Republican Presidential nominee.
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LOL, they forgot to poll Detriot
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Lord Frieza said:
Yeah, but it's different than Obama. This is something that's been going on and on for years, where as with Obama he was pretty much unknown before his Presidency. Like I said, it probably isn't something that realistic, but I do wonder if just endless persecution with shift the general public's (not the deplorable and ultra conservative, not talking about them) outlook on things, especially as things are becoming so transparent.
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The "General Public" tends to not vote, especially in Midterms. So, leveraging sympathy for Clinton into votes is the key. Until I see evidence that a larger chunk of the apathetic voters are willing to punish these electoral-terrorists, I will remain in my cynic-bunker.

The GOP has made me a Democratic voter for life. In fact, after this election I am registering Dem after nearly 20years as an Indy. That's how fucking pissed I am.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
F

Felix Lighter

Member
Ha I don't even know why she would agree to go on the View. Trump isn't going to turn around the women's vote and going into a hostile environment like that ends in hilarious situations like that.
 
N

nature boy

Member
i_am_ben said:
Don't mention Detroit.... that wasn't Hillary-GAFs shining moment in the Primaries....
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Yeah MI polling was completely wrong in the Dem primaries, but no way Detroit lets Trump win Michigan.
Zukkoyaki said:
Harry Enten posted this poll of MI earlier. Also an outlier but supposedly they did well during the primaries http://msutoday.msu.edu/_/pdf/assets/2016/state-of-state-survey.pdf
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Yeah I saw that one, two months (!!!!) on the field though.
 
D

Dany

Banned
Pretty sure I had a dream where Clinton won the election and there was viral video of Trump screaming at the monitors in his room and getting on the phone to yell at someone. But then soon enough everyone in the room left him, secret service, his campaign personal and etc.

Finally the long charade was put to rest.
 
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