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[Fragamemnon]

Meanwhile Trump gets completely dumpstered by this MSU poll in MI:

http://msutoday.msu.edu/news/2016/clinton-winning-michigan-easily/

Clinton: 47
Trump : 28
Aleppo: 11
Wifi: 4

Note-long polling interval here and I don't think Trump is down 20, but he's not down one either. Still the right call to make a play in the state because NC is very likely gone.

The quarterly survey interviewed 886 adults, 746 of them likely voters, producing a margin of error of 3.3 percent among all respondents and 3.6 percent among likely voters. The survey was conducted Sept. 1-Oct 30 over cell phones and landlines.

 

[Teggy]

Wow, that was really something. The audience basically drowned her out with laughter.

I'm guessing they were laughing in response to Whoopi's response to that comment, camera didn't catch it.

 

[Blader]

Harry Enten posted this poll of MI earlier. Also an outlier but supposedly they did well during the primaries http://msutoday.msu.edu/_/pdf/assets/2016/state-of-state-survey.pdf

20 points?!

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Another reminder with a Wisconsin poll imminent that it's still one poll and that Clinton is still up 6-7 points in the aggregate. Also Marquette gets swingy at times. Keep bedwetting to a minimum regardless of result, please ^_^

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

Note-long polling interval here and I don't think Trump is down 20, but he's not down one either. Still the right call to make a play in the state because NC is very likely gone.

Based on the data we're seeing, I don't think so.

 

[i_am_ben]

Yeah MI polling was completely wrong, but no way Detroit lets Trump win Michigan.


Yeah I saw that one, two months (!!!!) on the field though.

I was more referring to the hilarious hour or so during the Michigan primary when Poligaf was collectively posting "Detroit isn't in yet" page after page.

 

[Teggy]

There are a lot of Trump family members out, so this is a little misleading. Lara, Ivanka and Tiffany are all in separate places. One of the generals as well. Maybe not as big draws.

 

[BoboBrazil]

The media needs to think about what's best for our country for once and actively try to prevent a Trump presidency by going over the negative stories about him over and over instead of this email bullshit.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Based on the data we're seeing, I don't think so.

I don't know. Cohn and The Upshot have been closely monitoring it...

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/11/0...ead.html?_r=0&referer=https://t.co/KIIGJ6Wxqf

 

[Kusagari]

Exit polls had Romney significantly winning Independents in NC.

If Hillary is winning them, let alone by +12, that is horrible for Trump.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

I don't know. Cohn and The Upshot have been closely monitoring it...

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/11/0...ead.html?_r=0&referer=https://t.co/KIIGJ6Wxqf

I'm saying I don't think NC is gone for HRC. The headline for that article;

Early Vote in North Carolina Seems Consistent With a Clinton Lead

 

[IggyChooChoo]

I'm guessing they were laughing in response to Whoopi's response to that comment, camera didn't catch it.

What was said? (At work, can't view video.)

 

[bangbang i'm a timpani]

There are a lot of Trump family members out, so this is a little misleading. Lara, Ivanka and Tiffany are all in separate places. One of the generals as well. Maybe not as big draws.

I would think Ivanka would be a huge draw, easily bigger than Chelsea

 

[gaugebozo]

Harry Enten posted this poll of MI earlier. Also an outlier but supposedly they did well during the primaries http://msutoday.msu.edu/_/pdf/assets/2016/state-of-state-survey.pdf

I'm really surprised the upper peninsula and northern Michigan aren't Trump areas. Western central has a strong Trump preference, but I think that gets wiped out by Grand Rapids.

 

[nature boy]

4 Q state polls today (it's still Q though)

Quinnipiac Poll ‏@QuinnipiacPoll 3m3 minutes ago
Peter Brown & Tim Malloy to discuss #Florida #NorthCarolina #Ohio #Pennsylvania #SwingState poll on 2016 pres race, Wed 3pm #Election2016

I was more referring to the hilarious hour or so during the Michigan primary when Poligaf was collectively posting "Detroit isn't in yet" page after page.

Oh I missed that.

 

[sazzy]

 

[Teggy]

Well these CNN polls are confusing.

 

[RustyNails]

Nevada poll from CNN is a bummer and PA is kinda close. Otherwise looks ok.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Seems a bit of an odd time to be releasing final state polls by some of these firms. What about the coming weekend?

 

[BSsBrolly]

If Hillary wins NC, FL, or OH, it's gonna be an early night. If she loses all three, it comes down to CO and NM/NV. That would be a long, stress inducing night...

 

[Kusagari]

Shitty NV polling strikes again.

 

[Barzul]

Losing Nevada (by 6 lol) but winning PA and FL (by 2 points)

 

[jbug617]

what time is the Marquette poll?

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

OK I know I said don't throw CNN polls in the trash but I don't know what to tell you about NV

 

[Incognito]

lol @ those nevada numbers. with the EV numbers released on a daily basis, how does any reputable firm put out garabge like that?

 

[Teggy]

What was said? (At work, can't view video.)

Question was if Trump has definitely no business ties to Russia, answer was, "well that's what he's told me."

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I'll take Ralston's word over these NV polls any fucking day.

 

[nature boy]

CNN dumbfound by Nevahduh

 

[Wilsongt]

The media needs to think about what's best for our country for once and actively try to prevent a Trump presidency by going over the negative stories about him over and over instead of this email bullshit.

Why? Media isn't supposed to be biased. Wouldn't want to be attacked and critized for reporting on faux scandals when there are emails about weiners to discuss.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Those are fine, but she's not down 6 in Nevada, lol.

 

[Y2Kev]

The NV polling makes zero sense given the EV. So weird. How do these guys repeatedly get such variance in this state?

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Those polls are nothing but fodder for 538. Early voting has Nevada looking solid blue and we know PA isn't that close.

 

[RustyNails]

lol @ those nevada numbers. with the EV numbers released on a daily basis, how does any reputable firm put out garabge like that?

Quick, everyone to John King's magic wall where he flips everything to red and shows the path for Trump!

what time is the Marquette poll?

50 mins. Also Monmouth too.

 

[Y2Kev]

I don't think she should be in Arizona. Limited time. Should be in PA and NH and WI.

 

[Revolver]

There are a lot of Trump family members out, so this is a little misleading. Lara, Ivanka and Tiffany are all in separate places. One of the generals as well. Maybe not as big draws.

Where's Melania? Isn't Trump supposed to throw her out there?

 

[Plinko]

I'll take Florida in exchange for NV.

 

[Wiz]

Was reading an NPR article about how many paths the Democrats have to the senate - http://www.npr.org/2016/11/01/50024...a-democratic-senate-looks-increasingly-likely

Was thinking, how would you guys rank the 10 battlegrounds from most likely pickups by Dems to least?

They have it as : IL > WI > PA > MO > IN > NH > NC > NV > FL > AZ

(I bolded the minimum needed for Senate majority if Clinton is president.)

I would put NH and NC above IN. I don't feel too good about that race. Rest seems reasonable.

 

[Teggy]

Where's Melania? Isn't Trump supposed to throw her out there?

Supposed to be a speech tomorrow I think. Haven't seen anything more about it.

 

[Grief.exe]

Well these CNN polls are confusing.

Nevada poll from CNN is a bummer and PA is kinda close. Otherwise looks ok.

Shitty NV polling strikes again.

Losing Nevada (by 6 lol) but winning PA and FL (by 2 points)

Nevada is historically difficult to poll.

Harry Reid was laughing a couple months ago when a journalist was citing his Democratic replacement losing in the polls.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Also did they push leaners hard for once? That's actually a normal number of undecideds.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

So I went back and checked, this is actually an improvement from CNN's previous PA poll

 

[Roland_Gunner]

The NV polling makes zero sense given the EV. So weird. How do these guys repeatedly get such variance in this state?

Its notoriously difficult to reach first generation Hispanics for polls. So when they vote in numbers it throws things off.

 

[Debirudog]

Comey gave CNN them some meat and now they're hungry for moar.

 

[StormBrute]

Does CNN give data on their polling demographics? Latino and Hispanic numbers specifically. It just seems odd that Nevada is so different from EV signs, and I'm wondering if that would affect Arizona numbers as well.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

So I went back and checked, this is actually an improvement from CNN's previous PA poll

You won't hear them saying that.

 

[Barzul]

A bit concerning about Senate races though. We need 6 seats...not sure if we get them now.

 

[Tall4Life]

I neeeeeeeeeed that shot of hopium. Oh lord droppo the oppo

 

[Hasphat'sAnts]

Does CNN give data on their polling demographics? Latino and Hispanic numbers specifically. It just seems odd that Nevada is so different from EV signs, and I'm wondering if that would affect Arizona numbers as well.

They do. But it's easy to get lost in the cross tabs

 

[TS-08]

I'll take Florida in exchange for NV.

Honestly my biggest takeaway from these polls is that he can't even get a lead in Florida in CNN's poll, which clearly favors him.

 

[nature boy]

CNN Senate:

All four of these states also have senate seats up for grabs this year, three of the four are incredibly close contests. In Florida, Marco Rubio's once wide lead over Patrick Murphy has evaporated, and the race is now a 1-point contest, 49% back Rubio, 48% Murphy. The Nevada race to replace the Senate's top Democrat Harry Reid has swung back toward Republican Joe Heck, but here too the race is within margin of error, with Heck at 49% to Catherine Cortez Masto's 47%. The margin widens slightly in Pennsylvania, where Republican incumbent Pat Toomey lags behind challenger Katie McGinty by 5 points. In Arizona, John McCain holds a wide lead over challenger Ann Kirkpatrick, topping her 52% to 39%.
The CNN/ORC polls were conducted by telephone Oct. 27-Nov. 1. Results reflect interviews with 867 registered voters and 769 likely voters in Arizona, 884 registered voters and 773 likely voters in Florida, 860 registered voters and 790 likely voters in Nevada and 917 registered voters and 799 likely voters in Pennsylvania. Results among likely voters have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points in each state.

MURPHY IS ALIVEEEEEEE