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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
- Thread starter eBay Huckster
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whyamihere
Banned
So, CNN is going to have a Nevada-shaped egg on its face.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
He had a decent lead in their last one. Very interesting swing there.
Comey getting the job done for his team.
Lord Frieza
Member
Trump in Nevada by +6 points? Lol
RustyNails
Member
Remember, Ralston said Trump will need to rally his base by 90%+ AND win 20% of Independent vote in order to overcome deficit in Nevada. Thats impossible x 2. And it's only going to get worse because we still have a few days of early voting.
cartoon_soldier
Member
https://mgtvwhtm.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/toplines-statewideabc272-oct16.pdf
Clinton +4 to +2 in PA.
Clinton +4 to +2 in PA.
No. Fuck him. The senate can still be won.
Sometimes I think PoliGAF is resembling Trump supporters too much when it trashes polls it doesn't like.
Not that I'm defending the polls here, as it looks like at least half of them are wrong this year when you look at the differences between them and see all the differences outside the margin of error... but without very clear criticisms of methodology and sampling I find it hard to dismiss any particular poll.
I can dismiss the LA Times Poll because they are implementing very extreme weighting on groups with statistically insignificant samples (looking at you, the two young black guys in their sample), but other polls? Can't really say.
Not that I'm defending the polls here, as it looks like at least half of them are wrong this year when you look at the differences between them and see all the differences outside the margin of error... but without very clear criticisms of methodology and sampling I find it hard to dismiss any particular poll.
I can dismiss the LA Times Poll because they are implementing very extreme weighting on groups with statistically insignificant samples (looking at you, the two young black guys in their sample), but other polls? Can't really say.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Oppo droppo is the only thing keeping me going at this point TBH.
Hasphat'sAnts
Member
To be fair, didn't the Republicans have a really good day in NV yesterday?
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
If there's anything, it's coming Thursday or Friday.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
These are terrible polls, Murphy is nowhere close to Rubio and CCM is definitely going to win.
StormBrute
Member
YAAAAASSSSSSSS SCRUBLORD
I so badly want Murphy to win. Not just that Rubio gets beat, but that he's beaten by a chump like Murphy. If it was Kander easily knocking him down, it wouldn't be the same.
Lord Frieza
Member
They've revived him as Robocop. Let's do this Murph.
Not enough to make a dent in the dem advantage. It's resembling 2012 very closely when Obama won by 7.
RustyNails
Member
Murphy crawled out of a 10 point deficit. Gotv will put him over the top if he's a point or two away.
whyamihere
Banned
I do think, looking at the aggregate, this is tentatively true. Though again, we don't have a ton of polling:
I'm fairly confident we'll win all of NV, CO, PA, IL, and WI. We just need one more.
I'm fairly confident we'll win all of NV, CO, PA, IL, and WI. We just need one more.
That's not so bad. +4 was on the low end previously. Gotta get out the vote in PA because there's no ev
Lord Frieza
Member
Hmmm
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Toomey hasn't lead a poll in Pennsylvania in weeks, he's going to lose to McGinty despite McGinty not really being a good politician at all so that's something at least?
Probably gonna end up being MO with Kander. Hope he can actually pull it off.
The Lamonster
Member
If it's coming, it's coming tomorrow. Friday is too late.
nature boy
Member
I think he's closer (3-5 points) but still behind
whyamihere
Banned
No, Dems banked another 2k vote in their lead.
Save that super meter!
whyamihere
Banned
If McGinty is gonna knock out an incumbent of a swing state, maybe we all underestimated her.
To be fair the LA Times poll has only two black men in it's sample, one of which is voting for Trump no matter what, and extrapolating that out to represent the whole African-american community.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
McGinty is an absolutely horrible public speaker, but maybe she does everything else well. Hard to judge the other stuff.
lyrick
Member
The analytical part of me wants to simply trust the polls. There's data there use it.
My issue is some of these polls really don't sit right with my preconceived notions of the existing electorates in these states.
How do I get past the "feels" and correctly utilize the data presented?
My issue is some of these polls really don't sit right with my preconceived notions of the existing electorates in these states.
How do I get past the "feels" and correctly utilize the data presented?
Hnnngh! That's some good hopium for the morning
I th8kk Kander has it. He is not running as a super liberal and his gun stunt, combined with blunts lobbyist family i think have him over tbe edge. I know ill be voting for him.
Frank the Great
Banned
I have a hard time imagining what kind of anti Trump oppo would even matter at this point. It would have to be truly huge. Otherwise the media will just brush it aside and continue to talk about the email non-news.
And something that huge, I'd imagine would have dropped or leaked earlier. I think this is it.
And something that huge, I'd imagine would have dropped or leaked earlier. I think this is it.
lyrick
Member
It's the final effort put into actually getting voters to the polls.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Get_out_the_vote
Get out the vote. Efforts on the ground to motivate people to vote on a person by person basis. Knocking on doors, phone banks, organized early voting rallies, etc.
User 463088
Banned
Get out the vote. It's the ground game of getting your people to the polls.
Thanks, my brain always took me to GOV (ernment) or something ha.
Greatly nOnparTIson Voter response. This leads to systemic polling error.
lyrick
Member
I'm working through that too.
It's simply too easy to dismiss findings that are not in your favor.
I'm sure some do that, but individual polls don't matter. Look at the aggregates. When we do it, we see the reality. And it's not close.
Clinton has this on lock, and Sam Wang's 99% win probability is correct. There's no doubt at all. The only question is if we will get the Senate.
Toomey has the charisma of a brick
Frank the Great
Banned
It's that thing the Remain campaign fucked up.
I just want the oppo for my own satisfaction at this point, really
I'm trying to listen to local talk radio.
How the fuck do people do this every single day? Caller after caller after caller, all parroting the same tired and easy to disprove point of the host, peppered with a SHITLOAD of terribly produced local ads.
Gonna try to make it to the top of the hour but I'll probably be firing up spotify before then
How the fuck do people do this every single day? Caller after caller after caller, all parroting the same tired and easy to disprove point of the host, peppered with a SHITLOAD of terribly produced local ads.
Gonna try to make it to the top of the hour but I'll probably be firing up spotify before then
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