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[Nazgul_Hunter]

I'm sure some do that, but individual polls don't matter. Look at the aggregates. When we do it, we see the reality. And it's not close.

Clinton has this on lock, and Sam Wang's 99% win probability is correct. There's no doubt at all. The only question is if we will get the Senate.

Plus right now, the media itself is cherry picking which polls to talk about because they need an interesting race to close out the season with strong ratings. Jus look at what happened in 2012.

 

[Beer Monkey]

John Sununu is the new Karl Rove. Watch for colossal meltdown if they have him on TV next Tuesday night.

EDIT: "Crooked Hillary Clinton...that's gonna be a great term, for a president, huh?" - Trump, just now.

 

[lyrick]

I'm trying to listen to local talk radio.

How the fuck do people do this every single day? Caller after caller after caller, all parroting the same tired and easy to disprove point of the host, peppered with a SHITLOAD of terribly produced local ads.

Gonna try to make it to the top of the hour but I'll probably be firing up spotify before then

Imagine being the CSPAN host of the Washington Journal. It's those calls all year every year.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

just saw that Nevada poll,. and the fuck, that has to be some bullshit.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

The bet wetter in me is noticing that poligaf finds ways to dismiss any polls that don't fit the Clinton is a lock narrative.

Nevada is a unique situation given early vote and people like Ralston giving updates on it. The other polls I have no issue with, the race is closer than it was a week ago.

 

[Amir0x]

Toomey has the charisma of a brick

Nah it is because me and Diablos hand delivered PA for PoliGAF. Ya'll just don't believe.

 

[BSsBrolly]

Not sure if people really are bedwetting based on these polls or not... personally, I feel fucking great about them. Hillary is ahead in the states she needs and has a competent ground game. She got this. Bring on November 8th, I'm fucking ready. Can't wait for Trump to finally experience loss (and to not worry about him anymore)!


Would love some soul crushing oppo too, just because Trump is a tremendous piece of shit. Just saying..

 

[MetalGearZed]

its sad that this country even needs an oppo to drift away from Trump. Pussygate was only 3 weeks ago. 3 weeks. and we're pretty much where we were before it now.

Hillary email shit has been fuel for an entire year to keep her down.

Why does there need to be a constant CONSTANT reminder that he is piece of shit to put him completely out of chance.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

@RalstonReports

In CNN poll, Trump leads Clinton in Clark County by 1: 46-45. There's more chance that Sheldon Adelson gives $500 million to Priorities USA.

 

[codhand]

Ralston tha gawd

 

[The Lamonster]

its sad that this country even needs an oppo to drift away from Trump. Pussygate was only 3 weeks. 3 weeks. and we're pretty much where we were before it now.

Hillary email shit has been fuel for an entire year to keep her down.

Why does there need to be a constant CONSTANT reminder that he is piece of shit to put him completely out of chance.

This right here is the most frustrating thing about this whole cycle. When Pussygate happened, I let out a big sigh of relief, knowing that the election was finally over and it would end in a landslide.

But look where we are now. Republican voters, man. They have no shame whatsoever. No values.

 

[sazzy]

Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports
In CNN poll, Trump leads Clinton in Clark County by 1: 46-45. There's more chance that Sheldon Adelson gives $500 million to Priorities USA.

lol cnn

 

[kess]

Imagine being the CSPAN host of the Washington Journal. It's those calls all year every year.

I'd be so tempted to add "thank you for that original, incisive commentary" in sarcastic tones after every call

 

[Lord Frieza]

Imagine being the CSPAN host of the Washington Journal. It's those calls all year every year.

The most patient man alive

 

[Fenderputty]

I'm patting myself on the back for avoiding CNN this entire election. Early voting and polls holding have me feeling good. Hopefully we take the senate and and nuke the filibuster for SCOTUS appointees. The bedwetting will then stop, the madness will die down and I can prepare for 8 more years of congressional obstruction and shitty governance while demographics continue to put a stranglehold on the right.

 

[BotoxAgent]

Not looking forward to the OT thread where everyone freaks out on a state with 1% only being counted so far lol

 

[whyamihere]

I guess my issue with polls showing Trump up 6 in Nevada or 7 in NC or Clinton up 8 in FL is that all three of those states have very thorough voter registration numbers. We know who is voting, and parsing through those numbers, you can get a pretty good sense of where things are. They are not where these polls say they are. I get NV, hard to poll, but NC and FL are much easier.

 

[User 463088]

That NV poll is so amazing. In a state that will be 20% Hispanic, they couldn't get a sample with a MoE below 8.5%. this is the take away from polling this year. We need to get better at polling non native English speakers and people of color!

 

[RustyNails]

Jon Ralston
‏@RalstonReports
In CNN poll, Trump leads Clinton in Clark County by 1: 46-45. There's more chance that Sheldon Adelson gives $500 million to Priorities USA.

lol cnn

ded

Eat shit CNN

 

[Debirudog]

i mean CNN pulled this bullshit where Bernie seemed to have won a state (I forgot which one) in a primary...Only to have Clinton win it singlehandedly. Given they like to twist things for their own benefit, I kind suspect them to be fishy enough in their sampling.

 

[B-Dubs]

Imagine being the CSPAN host of the Washington Journal. It's those calls all year every year.

Straight up, I could never do that job without breaking. That man is a robot and a saint and a buddah. He's miracle ingredient Z-247. He's a real, slam-bang, honest-to-goodness, three-fisted humdinger. He's a bona fide supraman!

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

i mean CNN pulled this bullshit where Bernie seemed to have won a state (I forgot which one) in a primary...Only to have Clinton win it singlehandedly. Given they like to twist things for their own benefit, I kind suspect them to be fishy enough in their sampling.

I don't think it's intentional, I think they are just especially crap at polling NV.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

i mean CNN pulled this bullshit where Bernie seemed to have won a state (I forgot which one) in a primary...Only to have Clinton win it singlehandedly. Given they like to twist things for their own benefit, I kind suspect them to be fishy enough in their sampling.

They have a lot of cover this year too because the narrative of "when a candidate is on the news, they go down."

 

[Iolo]

Dave Weigel ‏@daveweigel 7m7 minutes ago

Democrats keeping plastic on the bedsheets until Marquette and Quinnipiac polls drop today. If those still show HRC winning, storm passed.

The metaphor is spreading.

 

[B-Dubs]

The metaphor is spreading.

They all read GAF.

 

[nature boy]

The metaphor is spreading.

It's not a PoliGAF or NeoGAF thing

 

[whyamihere]

I was really hoping it would be the Democrats in Cuyahoga who were up and Republicans who were down. This could be not great:

@midawson: Cuyahoga County returned ballots with seven days to go 2016 vs. 2012
Total -5% Democrats -26% Republicans +13% Unaffiliated +29%

EDIT: Just a reminder that party ID in Ohio is based on your 2016 primary vote. Which. You know.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 3m3 minutes ago
Kyle Kondik Retweeted Michael D. Dawson
Mike finds grim tidings for Dems in Cuyahoga County, although keep in mind that Rs have something of a phantom party ID edge in Ohio

Michael D. Dawson
‏@midawson
Cuyahoga County returned ballots with seven days to go 2016 vs. 2012
Total -5% Democrats -26% Republicans +13% Unaffiliated +29%

Noah Rothman ‏@NoahCRothman 2m2 minutes ago
@kkondik might that have been juiced by a competitive primary which the popular governor had to win?

.

 

[StormBrute]

I do think, looking at the aggregate, this is tentatively true. Though again, we don't have a ton of polling:



I'm fairly confident we'll win all of NV, CO, PA, IL, and WI. We just need one more.

Hoping HRC can drag Ross and Murphy over the finish line, but ticket splitting might do Murphy in. Bayh's trashiness is taking him down hard, but he might be able to still pull it out.

Hassan will probably win. Kander is the real interesting one, since he has little to rely on except himself. That's the race I'm most closely watching.

 

[Tall4Life]

I was really hoping it would be the Democrats in Cuyahoga who were up and Republicans who were down. This could be not great:

Are these polls indicative of early voting per day or overall? If its the former then its not terribly important imo

 

[whyamihere]

Hoping HRC can drag Ross and Murphy over the finish line, but ticket splitting might do Murphy in. Bayh's trashiness is taking him down hard, but he might be able to still pull it out.

Hassan will probably win. Kander is the real interesting one, since he has little to rely on except himself. That's the race I'm most closely watching.

My guess as of now is that it'd be Hassan. Kander and Ross are gravy, though they're both fantastic in their own way. Bayh pulling it out would be great, but I'm losing hope.

 

[Plinko]

.

Guys, give up on Ohio. It isn't happening.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

This right here is the most frustrating thing about this whole cycle. When Pussygate happened, I let out a big sigh of relief, knowing that the election was finally over and it would end in a landslide.

But look where we are now. Republican voters, man. They have no shame whatsoever. No values.

Yeah, an astonishing amount of deplorables out there, but w'ere up against them AND Russian intelligence and still winning the presidency. It bodes poorly for their side no matter what. (perhaps up against a contingent in the FBI as well. *takes off tin foil hat*)

 

[Frank the Great]

I do think, looking at the aggregate, this is tentatively true. Though again, we don't have a ton of polling:



I'm fairly confident we'll win all of NV, CO, PA, IL, and WI. We just need one more.

I think Hassan will get us there. Ross/Kander would be icing on the cake. Murphy a dream.

 

[RustyNails]

The new MULaw poll will kill poligaf. Just a prediction.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

The new MULaw poll will kill poligaf. Just a prediction.

What time is it coming out?

 

[Zukkoyaki]

The new MULaw poll will kill poligaf. Just a prediction.

That's why I've posted multiple times that we can't take it as gospel. Clinton is up 6-7 in WI aggregate regardless of what MULaw shows. We've also seen it swing pretty wildly this cycle and in 2012.

 

[johnsmith]

Amazing

 

[kess]

Nah it is because me and Diablos hand delivered PA for PoliGAF. Ya'll just don't believe.

Ha

Toomey came out of my district. His base was and is diet racist suburbanites who want to fuck over schools and social programs. Even though there's no shortage of like-minded people in PA, I don't think he can count on it in 2016.

 

[Tall4Life]

Amazing

This was the oppo I needed

 

[Iolo]

who is tim buckley

 

[whyamihere]

Guys, give up on Ohio. It isn't happening.

Actually, Kasich in the primary is somewhat responsible for this:

@PhilVanT: @Adorably_Nerdy @kkondik believe it or not, Lorain County (heavy D county) now has more registered R than D cuz of the primary this year.

Might be better just to watch the polls than party ID in Ohio.

 

[nature boy]

The new MULaw poll will kill poligaf. Just a prediction.

Uh why, she'll be ahead

 

[Felix Lighter]

PA is a perfect example of Democrats not showing up on midterm elections. That's when you get Corbetts and Toomeys.

 

[tedrotheredro]

Trump just called out Katy Tur on stage "Massive support, there's something happening, you're not reporting it, Katy. There's something happening, Katy".

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Who is posting the election night OT and when? I can whip up something if nobody else has it covered.

 

[Finale Fireworker]

Amazing

I haven't seen a good, new, Loss Comic in so long.

This is wonderful.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

https://mobile.twitter.com/PeterHamby/status/793853660405137408

CNN's Nevada poll didn't poll enough Hispanics to provide a Trump vs. Hillary breakdown....

 

[johnsmith]

who is tim buckley

Ctrl+Alt+Del comic guy

loss.jpg

 

[Hooligan69]

I just need to rant here.

My parents are fucking idiots. I mean, I love them and they love me, but goddammit, they're stupid.

They get most/all of their information from fox, and they are misinformed as fuck. But when I try to explain to them that they do not have their facts straight, they just pull a "you're such a know-it-all and no one can tell you different". No matter how I explain it to them, even though they do not refute anything, they just roll their eyes at "everything you think you know about this election is wrong"....which, sure, is an extreme statement, but it's true. There is no subject regarding this election in which they haven't displayed stunning misinformation. Whenever I try to demand statistics or sources, they either go "Well, on the news..." or worse, bring up some anecdote. To them, a personal story of a single mexican skipping paying taxes or committing a crime they personally know is more convincing to them that it's a national problem than the statistics showing it's not.

It's hard to pin down the exact source of this mentality. A lot of it is that they do not look outside their personal bubble. Like, the fact that they are paying a lot for Obamacare and don't benefit from it too much is reason why it should be removed for the entire country. A lot of their questions are framed as "Well, what is Hillary Clinton going to do for you?" As in, me personally. They don't seem to think that gays maintaining their rights would be something I'd care about since I'm not gay. And it's hard not to see this as shitty selfish behavior because...it kind of is.

It's just frustrating because they eagerly want a debate and hate how heated it gets, but you cannot debate ignorance of this magnitude. It's like building a sandcastle on the shoreline, no matter the argument you mount on why they're wrong, it's just washed away and you have to start on a new one.

That sucks! I've found when in a situation surrounded by immovable derps, instead of trying to convince them otherwise, just start asking questions. Ask them for more details and why they think that. If they give you answers, ask for more details and if they believe that to be true and why.

Every single time I've been in that situation, the other person can't ever explain why, nor give me facts to back up why they think what they do. They just get defensive and keep referring to what they've heard on Fox or AM radio or whatever. It may not solve anything, but at least maybe you'll get them thinking, instead of instigating a he said she said war of words. I'm sure they'll get mad, but it may give you an in, instead of them automatically shutting down because they think you're trying to convince or change their mind.

Them: "Miitants are streaming in from our southern border!"
You: "oh yeah, like how many? Where did you see that?"
Them: "on the news/Fox... or a friend said so"
You: "Last I read, there has been a net loss in immigration since 2009 because of our economy. Many Mexicans were going back to Mexico. The actual numbers don't match your story. Do you have a source?"

That's pretty clumsy, but the inquisitive approach, even if it doesn't solve anything, just might give you some lols and if they have any intellectual ambition at all, it just might get them to question what they hear... though probably not if they're in the Fox bubble.