• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

Status
Not open for further replies.
R

RustyNails

Member
Nazgul_Hunter said:
Boom:

New Marquette Law School Poll finds Clinton leading Trump among likely voters in WI 46% to 40%. #mulawpoll
Click to expand...
94f.png
 
P

pigeon

Banned
whyamihere said:
Man, this really is going to end up very similarly to 2012, isn't it?
Click to expand...

As I said in the chat, I really don't think it will be like 2012.

The early vote numbers should be an indicator of the difference between Clinton's ground game and Trump's ground game. Clinton's lead in many different polls is double digits in early vote, but the polls show closer numbers in people yet to vote. Those people are much less valuable than the people who already voted! They have to actually be converted to ballots on or before Election Day. Clinton has an engine for doing that. Trump explicitly doesn't.

I view the double-digit leads in early voting as a leading indicator of how much Clinton's GOTV is going to help her. In combination with tweets saying that private polling shows Clinton up by 6, I still expect Clinton to take a double-digit win.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
More Podesta shenanigans. Yawn.

A March 2015 email revealed Podesta attended a meeting with Clinton campaign General Counsel, the lobbying firm Dewey Square Partners and Clinton Super PACs. Several emails released by WikiLeaks suggest the Clinton campaign illegally coordinated with Super PACs, prompting Clinton loyalist Neera Tanden to say she thought that what the campaign was doing with Correct the Record was “skirting, if not violating” the law.

Assistant Attorney General Peter Kadzik tipped off Podesta and the Clinton campaign about what was going on at the Department of Justice. Kadzik, a friend of Podesta, will oversee the DOJ probe into Clinton aide Huma Abedin and Anthony Weiner’s emails from Clinton’s private email server. “There is a HJC oversight hearing today where the head of our Civil Division will testify. Likely to get questions on State Department emails. Another filing in the FOIA case went in last night or will go in this am that indicates it will be awhile (2016) before the State Department posts the emails,” Kadzik wrote to Podesta in May 2015. Podesta forwarded the email to several top Clinton staffers. The email suggests the Department of Justice was biased in favor of Hillary Clinton, and Kadzik tip to Podesta was highly unethical.
Click to expand...

The Clinton administration needs to communicate via smoke signals for the next 4 years because you know there will be hacking attempts.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
pigeon said:
As I said in the chat, I really don't think it will be like 2012.

The early vote numbers should be an indicator of the difference between Clinton's ground game and Trump's ground game. Clinton's lead in many different polls is double digits in early vote, but the polls show closer numbers in people yet to vote. Those people are much less valuable than the people who already voted! They have to actually be converted to ballots on or before Election Day. Clinton has an engine for doing that. Trump explicitly doesn't.

I view the double-digit leads in early voting as a leading indicator of how much Clinton's GOTV is going to help her. In combination with tweets saying that private polling shows Clinton up by 6, I still expect Clinton to take a double-digit win.
Click to expand...

I figured that the difference in ground game would create an extra 3-point gap that the polls aren't currently reading. You think it'll be more?
 
B

blackw0lf

Member
Wisconsin was the only must win state I was worried about.

Way more relieved now.

FL/NC/NV/OH/AZ/IA are just icing on the cake.
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
Grym said:
MuLaw
C46%
T40%
Click to expand...

I literally just regained my appetite. RIght on time for lunch. I can't fucking believe one single poll from Wisconsin had me all nervous all morning (I'm on Pacific Time, still morning here).

The firewall is holding. CNN can go screw themselves with their crazy polls.
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Did MULaw poll the Senate race? I need me some Russ back in the Senate, even though he has a bit too much purity-pony for my liking, he's damn respectable.

Edit: 1pt? I still don't buy a massive ticket split wave going on. I will continue to believe he'll win by 5 at least.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
272 firewall holding
Internals looking good
Early vote pointing to likely wins in Nevada and NC
Schale giving us reason to be optimistic about Florida

Looking good! Now Qpac polls to go!
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Polling accuracy has been getting worse and worse the last couple elections thanks to response rates, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a 4-5% point miss in either direction. They were even missing some senate races by 10% points in 2014, and the 2016 primaries was no better.

There's no doubt in my mind that Trump's going to lose a significant number of Romney voters. The unknown is how many new voters he picks up, or how many democrats stay home, but I can't imagine it's that much.

Therefore, I'd guess Hillary +8, though I'm still worried about being wrong and Trump somehow winning through poor democrat turnout, independents being idiots, and republicans all coming home.
 
M

Maledict

Member
IggyChooChoo said:
GOP reform is a lot farther off than I thought it was. The deplorable base wants what it wants, and the party elites have zero leverage over it. It totally owns them. Short of losing the House, TX and GA, nothing will change their minds. And if they win in 2020, that'll put it off even longer. The only reform in the GOP we're likely to see anytime soon are some alterations to the ways GOP primaries are conducted. Their strategy is working well for the medium term. And their goals are assymmetric compared to ours: they only need one two-year period of control of the Presidency, House and Senate to reverse the New Deal and Great Society and destroy the social safety net. And while their demographics are in decline, our coalition is much less devoted to preserving and restoring the safety net than theirs is to destroying it. Given the way veto powers are set up in the constitution, I have little faith that we'd ever be able to get, say, Medicaid back after it gets repealed. It is easier to be the barbarians than the Romans, because the barbarians only need to win once.
Click to expand...

Yep, this is one thing I think people don't realize. With the way the elections now work, and the gerrymandering, you're basically never going to have a republican president and democratic congress. It can't happen - you don't get a republican president who doesn't also carry the house. So they can block democratic stuff, like the Supreme Court, forever because it doesn't oust them anything with their base and eventually they will win and get to do whatever they want.

Between gerrymandering and a lack of interest the electorate doesn't punish congress for being so astonishingly bad, and the base itself loves them the more they obstruct. It really feels like despite the national advantages democrats have with demographics and the blue firewall, the assymetric warfare the Republican Party now practices puts the country permanently at risk of a catastrophic result.
 
H

Hopfrog

Member
WI could still flip, especially if Walker continues to do such a great job reminding the voters that 4 more years of Clinton would mean a continuation of Obama's agenda. All the polls show that Obama is less popular than ever.

Do I really need to say it? /s
 
S

Slacker

Member
Right Side Broadcasting live on youtube asking what people like about Trump and dislike about Clinton. To a man they all say the like Trump because he's honest and sincere. Hillary not so much because SHE LIES.

They're also worried they won't have enough real voters to overcome the fraud. God help us.
 
S

Slayven

Member
thepotatoman said:
Polling accuracy has been getting worse and worse the last couple elections thanks to response rates, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a 4-5% point miss in either direction. They were even missing some senate races by 10% points in 2014.

There's no doubt in my mind that Trump's going to lose a significant number of Romney voters. The unknown is how many new voters he picks up, or how many democrats stay home, but I can't imagine it's that much.

Therefore, I'd guess Hillary +8, though I'm still worried about being wrong and Trump somehow winning through poor democrat turnout, independents being idiots, and republicans all coming home.
Click to expand...

Latino vote on the rise, polling starts to suck.....coincidence?
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
So from that VF interview someone posted, Megyn Kelly wants to go to network TV to become the next Katie Couric type:
"Kelly has long mused publicly about how she would love to host a long-form interview show that would be part Oprah, part Charlie Rose, and perhaps part Barbara Walters. "
Click to expand...

but no one is taking the bait partly because her Trump interview was a fucking mess:
But so far, the purported auction for Kelly’s services has not come to fruition. One CNN insider explained, “of course we would love to have her,” before noting that poaching Kelly, given the likely cost of her contract, “is not something we are seriously considering.” Instead, this person elaborated, CNN is investing more in documentary-style programming after the election. “I don’t believe anyone is pursuing her other than Fox at this point,” said one ABC insider. A source close to CBS said that they are not making an offer, either. (The person close to Kelly noted that discussions with rival executives were ongoing.)

In fact, Kelly’s attempt to spread her wings and show that she is more than just a nightly cable-news host may work against her. An executive close to ABC told me that Kelly’s performance during her heavily promoted prime-time interview with Trump was particularly damaging to her perceived ability to “translate” to a morning show, where anchors are typically paid more handsomely than their prime-time counterparts. For Kelly, the Trump interview was intended to patch up her feud with the candidate and show her softer side. But the event was a critical and ratings disappointment. After that, “it was never a sort of concerted effort to think about what [Kelly] could look like [at ABC],” the executive told me.
Click to expand...
https://www.google.com/amp/www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/10/exclusive-megyn-kelly-fox-news-offer/amp
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Bernie should go and do some talks with Feingold and get that man back in the senate.

Educate them about the McCain Feingold law and what it did and who the man is.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT6| Made this thread during Harvey because the ratings would be higher
338 339 340 341 342
17K
2M
UselessNapkin replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
395 396 397 398 399
20K
2M
RDreamer replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT4| The leaks are coming from inside the white house
396 397 398 399 400
20K
2M
ShironRedshift replied
  • Locked
PoliGAF 2017 |OT3| 13 Treasons Why
393 394 395 396 397
20K
2M
Zaraki_Kenpachi replied
  • Locked
Poligaf 2017 |OT| It Almost Isn't Fair
9
4K
Bonen no Max'd replied
Top Bottom