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[studyguy]

Election day falls on a Tuesday.

So it's:
Get off work at 4
Gym by 4:30
Election is probably called by the time I get home at like nearly 6.

Whew lads. Thanks East Coast for making the rest of us irrelevant.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

Who could have ever believed that the Des Moines shooter would be a Trump fan?

This is so unexpected...

 

[Diablos]

Now that polling places are open in places where black people live, their vote share is catching up to 2012.

If this isn't proof that the GOP was trying to diminish the AA vote I don't know what is

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Iowa is going for Hillary.

Naw.

 

[CCS]

I hope that's a euphemism. 😀

I'll order a large sausage just for you

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

If this isn't proof that the GOP was trying to diminish the AA vote I don't know what is

But no; the media has to report this as lower enthusiasm for Clinton. CNN in particular basically just reads the headline, doesn't give much in the way of details, then jumps to hyper partisan panels to react.

 

[bachikarn]

I just can't buy that people are really this fickle.

Agreed. That is why I tend to trust Sam Wang and his stable prediction model the most.

 

[sturgboski]

Donald J. Trump
Donald J. Trump‏ @realDonaldTrump

Crooked Hillary Clinton deleted 33,000 e-mails AFTER they were subpoenaed by the United States Congress. Guilty - cannot run. Rigged system!
Nov 2, 2016, 8:47 AM

Yep

Would it be bad for a Harry Reid or someone to tweet him about Trump doing the same while under investigation in defiance of court order?

 

[blackw0lf]

I just can't buy that people are really this fickle.

Response rate. Bunch of freaked out dems on Friday not responding to pollsters I bet.

 

[nature boy]

Latino Decisions
‏@LatinoDecisions
LD statistical model projecting voter turnout by Prof. @justinhgross forecasts 13.1-14.7 million Latino votes cast, up from 11.2M in 2012

 

[Carpe Carnim]

If this isn't proof that the GOP was trying to diminish the AA vote I don't know what is

We have to win the Senate, so Clinton can appoint Justices to review the neutering of the VRA, so that we can somewhat level the playing field for voters of color.

How fucking convoluted. Do better 'Merica

 

[smurfx]

so happy i have wed off next week. gonna spend all night reading poligaf and trolling reddit.

 

[Wolfgunblood Garopa]

I still find myself aghast at the absurdity of Donald Trump. I don't doubt he'll lose, but he needs to lose big for the US to not look like a completely amoral laughingstock of a democracy for years to come. I think of what it would be like if I was a kid now, not knowing much about anything but seeing Donald Trump on TV as a potential leader of the free world. I'd be anxious and confused too.

 

[blackw0lf]

Umm...

Holly Bailey @hollybdc

Trump says Wikileaks will be dumping more details today and that he will talk about it tmrw

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Umm...

I imagine he's either trolling or just referring to the daily podesta dump

 

[Carpe Carnim]

Agreed. That is why I tend to trust Sam Wang and his stable prediction model the most.

Unfortunately his model has both NC & NV at 38% win chance for Dems. Polling has been horrendous this year

 

[Hobbestetrician]

Guh, one of my favorite streamers just did a brief "both sides, can't tell who is worse" soliloquy. I never want to speak to Trumpsters and I want to slap people who say this shit.

 

[metalslimer]

Umm...

The campaign has already admitted they have a contact connected to wikileaks. I'm not unconvinced Assange hasn't already somehow sent all the emails to the campaign already.

North Carolina is a prime example of the effect they wanted to have. If Republicans get the supreme Court voter suppression will become the norm for years

 

[johnsmith]

Getting mixed messages on the AA vote

@jeremybird

More NC EV: Over past 3 days, 110K African Americans have voted in-person. 10% more than equivalent period in '12. #TurnNCBlue

 

[Iolo]

I just can't buy that people are really this fickle.

It's all down to partisan nonresponse bias that the electorate swung by 19 points in one day and then back again. Or as Nate Silver would say, completely based on hard evidence,

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 27m27 minutes ago

Small samples here but it's **plausible** that the FBI story was quite damaging to Clinton at first, then damage lessened as story evolved.

 

[newshinycd]

Getting mixed messages on the AA vote

According to the LA Times poll, they are all 100% for Trump.

FUCKING FUCK

 

[Laevateinn]

I'm going to a concert Tuesday night. I hope shit is decided by the time I get home.

 

[BiggNife]

The next Wikileaks release will probably be just more podesta shit

I'm 99.9% convinced that if they had a smoking gun it would be released by now. It doesn't make sense to wait this long when early voting has been going for a while.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

Getting mixed messages on the AA vote

Welcome to the first post-VRA election in our lifetime. The fuckery has just slowed the climb back to 2012 levels for NC AA Dems. Have faith

 

[rokkerkory]

Can't wait to next Tuesday. Get off work early then election party with my cousins. Beer, wine, good food to celebrate.

 

[Teggy]

Getting mixed messages on the AA vote

They quite literally had no place to vote last week.

 

[Blader]

As much as I defended Nate more often than not during the primaries, his punditry has gotten really asinine lately.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Getting mixed messages on the AA vote

In North Carolina, the state first tried to reduce early voting days from 17 to 10, then when they were ordered by the courts to go back to the previous number, they responded by limiting the number of polling locations open during the first week. Guess which areas got hit the most. Overall early voting numbers were down the first week, as you would expect.

With more polling places now open, many counties have recovered and are now ahead of 2012's pace.

 

[KMS]

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 27m27 minutes ago

Small samples here but it's **plausible** that the FBI story was quite damaging to Clinton at first, then damage lessened as story evolved.

Nate officially trying to out Morning Joe, Morning Joe. He has to know it's just response rate but pundits gonna pundit. Getting some of that good punditry cash.

edit- or is he trying to out concern troll, Mika?

 

[Glass Shark]

Really refreshing to hear Louis C.K.'s take on Hillary on Conan. It's exactly how I've felt since she won the nomination. I like her a lot and it's not some "lesser of two evils" thing. I voted for her proudly and unequivocally and I can't wait for her to be president.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFOkBnYGfIM

 

[Iolo]

Imagine if that MULAW poll had been shifted by one day and the Trump-positive 19 point swing had been on the third day, instead of sandwiched in the middle. Nate Silver would be so smug

 

[newshinycd]

It's all down to partisan nonresponse bias that the electorate swung by 19 points in one day and then back again. Or as Nate Silver would say, completely based on hard evidence,

PunishedNate might be correct.

Dems freakout on Friday when FBI sent the letter to congress. And it wasn't until sometime Saturday/early Sunday that we figure out that the FBI hadn't even requested a warrant to get the emails off Weiner's laptop.

 

[Wilsongt]

Guh, one of my favorite streamers just did a brief "both sides, can't tell who is worse" soliloquy. I never want to speak to Trumpsters and I want to slap people who say this shit.

Had a streamer I like do that, too. Had to turn off the stream for a bit.

 

[Fragamemnon]

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 27m27 minutes ago

Small samples here but it's **plausible** that the FBI story was quite damaging to Clinton at first, then damage lessened as story evolved.

trends! emails! trends! emails! emails! emails!

 

[Diablos]

I just can't buy that people are really this fickle.

You see what happened there? She bounced back. But Trump is up by, what, 3 from 36-37%? That's more people willing to vote potentially. Tipping the scales for a vital Senate race.

 

[Maxim726X]

.
MULawPoll ‏@MULawPoll 11m11 minutes ago
Among early voters, 64% for Clinton, 25% for Trump. In Senate race, 58% for Feingold, 29% for Johnson

Daaamn How does this compare to last year?

As much as I defended Nate more often than not during the primaries, his punditry has gotten really asinine lately.

He really has been shit all season. If he's too far off the EV counts, he'll lose a lot of credibility.

 

[Iolo]

PunishedNate might be correct.

Dems freakout on Friday when FBI sent the letter to congress. And it wasn't until sometime Saturday/early Sunday that we figure out that the FBI hadn't even requested a warrant to get the emails off Weiner's laptop.

No, partisan nonresponse bias was his old theory. His new theory is that the 19 point one-day swing could have been real.

 

[User 463088]

This is why I have been bitching about Nate!

 

[thepotatoman]

Latino vote on the rise, polling starts to suck.....coincidence?

Definitely part of it, and the biggest reason for 2012's misses, but I think the biggest miss by pollsters in 2014 was underestimating how much white millennials shifted towards republicans.

They're probably fine weighing the data when those hard to reach demographics do what is expected, but they can't pick up any major shift in those groups very well.

 

[Man God]

Trump is winning all 50 states and every territory.

 

[Bonen no Max'd]

Can I ask where the talk of Wisconsin flipping in the future is coming from? The only times it's come close to flipping since 1984 were 2000 and 2004 and it was more Democratic than the nation as a whole in 2012 and doesn't seem to be trending away at all. I know it's more white than the nation as a whole, but Obama won 48% of white voters there in 2012 and it's one of the last places with rural Democratic voters.

 

[newshinycd]

Plus we all know that Dems aren't responding to polls on Fridays. Duh. We are all out partying away our free welfare monies and trading our free EBT cards so we can do drugs to each other.

No, partisan nonresponse bias was his old theory. His new theory is that the 19 point one-day swing could have been real.

Flip flopper!

 

[Emarv]

I thought the issues with the AA vote were more about black millenials than AAs overall? Or am I conflating two separate issues?

 

[Zukkoyaki]

I thought the issues with the AA vote were more about black millenials than AAs overall? Or am I conflating two separate issues?

Bit of both but most discussion was conjecture

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

As much as I defended Nate more often than not during the primaries, his punditry has gotten really asinine lately.

I unfollowed that dude on twitter, don't need that shit popping up all the time.

 

[Joeytj]

trends! emails! trends! emails! emails! emails!

Ugh, Nate. What happened to you?

Spoiler

I mean, I know, but still, you were supposed to be the chosen one.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Can I ask where the talk of Wisconsin flipping in the future is coming from? The only times it's come close to flipping since 1984 were 2000 and 2004 and it was more Democratic than the nation as a whole in 2012 and doesn't seem to be trending away at all. I know it's more white than the nation as a whole, but Obama won 48% of white voters there in 2012 and it's one of the last places with rural Democratic voters.

Midwestern state with a lot of white voters and doesn't have a major metropolis to anchor urban progressives like Minneapolis. Plus Scott Walker has done everything possible to destroy liberal institutions there.

 

[johnsmith]

Amir0x got himself banned again.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

Really refreshing to hear Louis C.K.'s take on Hillary on Conan. It's exactly how I've felt since she won the nomination. I like her a lot and it's not some "lesser of two evils" thing. I voted for her proudly and unequivocally and I can't wait for her to be president.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFOkBnYGfIM

wth is up with that background moire

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

Amir0x got himself banned again.

I'm honestly surprised it took this long. (#freeAmir0x)