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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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CCS

Banned
Oh shit, Trump's centipede strategy has paid off

gBkNG.png
 
Just seeing all that red makes me nervous.

It is the wildfire of the Hair Mouse. When the dirt of the Earth has become ash, the fire will spill into the ocean and boil away the sea. There is nothing it will not consume. The last of the clouds will be licked into steam by the towering flares of the Hair Mouse's dark destiny incarnate.

Brush your teeth, little one, for it will be all that's left of you in the end.
 
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 32m32 minutes ago Washington, DC
Upshot/Siena polling of North Carolina early voters who *didn't* vote in 2012 (n=133): Clinton 57, Trump 34

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 17m17 minutes ago Washington, DC
NC early voters who didn't vote in 2012:
White: C 43, T 45 (v. 35-55 among e.v. who vtd in 12)
Nonwhite: C 97 T 2 (v. 90-6 among vt in 12)

Those are really bad numbers for Trump.

I don't have NC specific numbers, but according to Pew in 2012, whites between 18-29 went 51-44 for Romney overall in the country.

I'm assuming a lot of these new voters are those that just turned voting age or maybe skipped last election cuz reasons.

Granted, this is just the early vote returns, but if Trump is close to a 50/50 split among white new voters, he's fucked.
 
Have they really just been tossing it out there without context?

CNN is just asking questions, man.

Politico posted a (poorly sourced) article citing numbers from AIF, a conservative business group claiming AA turnout was drastically low in Florida.

a bunch of media outlets took the bait on that one and just ran with it- combined with low turnout out of NC, but we knew that one was going to be low because NC systematically targeted black neighborhoods and eliminated early voting locations to ensure it would be that way.
 
Those are really bad numbers for Trump.

I don't have NC specific numbers, but according to Pew in 2012, whites between 18-29 went 51-44 for Romney overall in the country.

I'm assuming a lot of these new voters are those that just turned voting age or maybe skipped last election cuz reasons.

Granted, this is just the early vote returns, but if Trump is close to a 50/50 split among white new voters, he's fucked.

Is there any context on the magnitude?
 

HylianTom

Banned
Man I'm glad Virginia has gone so blue. I would be freaking out without it.
I still think Virginia and Colorado solidifying their status as pretty solid Blue states is one of the most consequential stories of this election, and I remain amazed at the lack of coverage that this has gotten.
 
I still think Virginia and Colorado solidifying their status as pretty solid Blue states is one of the most consequential stories of this election, and I remain amazed at the lack of coverage that this has gotten.

This has been a pretty big deal, I agree. It's one of the big stories of its kind for me, with the other being the lightening of red states like Georgia, Arizona, and Texas.
 
I still think Virginia and Colorado solidifying their status as pretty solid Blue states is one of the most consequential stories of this election, and I remain amazed at the lack of coverage that this has gotten.

honestly if they were blue in 2012, they weren't going red anytime in the forseeable future.

Romney is about as qualified and reasonable a candidate as you're likely to get out of the GOP for a long time. Take that one as you will.
 
Those are really bad numbers for Trump.

I don't have NC specific numbers, but according to Pew in 2012, whites between 18-29 went 51-44 for Romney overall in the country.

I'm assuming a lot of these new voters are those that just turned voting age or maybe skipped last election cuz reasons.

Granted, this is just the early vote returns, but if Trump is close to a 50/50 split among white new voters, he's fucked.

Is there any context on the magnitude?

So, we can use 2012 NC exit polls for an example.
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NC/president/

70% of the electorate was white. Romney won them 68/31.
 
Is this election over yet? I am ready to praise Queen Hillary.

This is how we get the House back. Hillary will install herself as Queen Clinton I after the inauguration. She then dissolves the House and Senate. Then the DNC and the Clinton Foundation vote on new members of Congress.
 
Ok I just saw that CNN Nevada poll wtf

eh...I'm pretty much at the point where polls don't matter.

Early voting numbers coming in have absolutely, definitively proven that no one's assumption about where turnout would be (which is half of polling right there) are remotely accurate.
 

Tall4Life

Member
This is how we get the House back. Hillary will install herself as Queen Clinton I after the inauguration. She then dissolves the House and Senate. Then the DNC and the Clinton Foundation vote on new members of Congress.

finally our (((globalist))) goals will be accomplished and (((NeoGAF))) will help dominate the (((world))).
 
Most likely after the election. Fuck!

I dont think it matters, really.

the story has been out there for a while, and while this is the worst of the "donald trump sexually assaults women" news stories, it's not the first one.

trump's numbers are very close to the absolute bottom of where I consider the foaming at the mouth hardcore partisans are.
 
Well, the CNN poll of Nevada is just bad! This isn't unskewing. It's just not realistic. They didn't sample enough Hispanic voters. They, somehow, decided that Trump was going to win Clark County--a county we haven't won since 1988. A county where we have a 50k vote firewall at the moment. It's just terrible polling.

And, real talk, we need to fix this! Because, it's not going to get better.
 
You actually can look at turnout numbers for NV, NC, and FL to see if AA turnout is "low". It's not, it's just pre-2008 turnout levels and around where it would be if black registration as a % of the electorate had grown to since then.

We also know how these states are voting!
 
You actually can look at turnout numbers for NV, NC, and FL to see if AA turnout is "low". It's not, it's just pre-2008 turnout levels and around where it would be if black registration as a % of the electorate had grown to since then.

We also know how these states are voting!

Obama is sounding the alarm though.
 
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