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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!

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shiba5

Member
Manmademan said:
I dont think it matters, really.

the story has been out there for a while, and while this is the worst of the "donald trump sexually assaults women" news stories, it's not the first one.

trump's numbers are very close to the absolute bottom of where I consider the foaming at the mouth hardcore partisans are.
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This story isn't one of the fabled oppos either - per Rick Wilson who is still teasing them. If there really is something that terrible I'm having a hard time believing it wouldn't have leaked already.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Manmademan said:
I dont think it matters, really.

the story has been out there for a while, and while this is the worst of the "donald trump sexually assaults women" news stories, it's not the first one.

trump's numbers are very close to the absolute bottom of where I consider the foaming at the mouth hardcore partisans are.
Click to expand...

Like I said. This person needs to do what's best for themselves. We know why people really wanted her to go public with this, but at the end of the day the story isn't new and they are going to court.

Probably best for her to tell her story when the election has calmed down. I mean Trump has this case and the fraud case he has to go to court for. His troubles after November 8th are only beginning.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
whyamihere said:
You actually can look at turnout numbers for NV, NC, and FL to see if AA turnout is "low". It's not, it's just pre-2008 turnout levels and around where it would be if black registration as a % of the electorate had grown to since then.

We also know how these states are voting!
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AA turnout in florida is 30% higher than it was in 2012 right now. it's not at pre-2008 levels at all.

NC is a different story, but we had active voter suppression and eliminated early voting locations in black neighborhoods to deal with. It's recovering since those places were restored.
 
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Black Mamba

Member
adam387 said:
So, we can use 2012 NC exit polls for an example.
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NC/president/

70% of the electorate was white. Romney won them 68/31.
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White isn't enough. I am looking specifically for millennial whites...and more specifically the younger ones.

One thing to note is Romney won indies by 15 in 2012. Trump is up 10 among white indies in 2016 in the Upshot early vote count. She's winning indies by 2 overall. Again, bad for Trump.
 
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Manmademan

Member
metalslimer said:
Right because you still want a better buffer. Especially in the senate races
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Right. the campaign knows it's won the presidency. anyone who's been paying attention for more than 5 seconds knows this.

The turnout push is all about flipping house and senate seats, and you need to push unlikely voters HARD to get the popular vote margins to where they need to be to flip as many as possible.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Black Mamba said:
White isn't enough. I am looking specifically for millennial whites...and more specifically the younger ones.

One thing to note is Romney won indies by 15 in 2012. Trump is up 10 among white indies in 2016 in the Upshot early vote count. She's winning indies by 2 overall. Again, bad for Trump.
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Ya, I know. The exits are probably the best we got, though. There's nothing in NC that looks good for Donald.
 
R

Revolver

Member
Where was Katy Tur on the Nightly News? Did they just leave her at the rally?

giphy.gif
 
C

Carpe Carnim

Member
Teggy said:
NBC moved NC to toss up? Hasn't it been looking stronger for Clinton?
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Why are you concerned with where media companies—who have a monetary stake in perceptions of a close race—move colors on a board?

Pro Tip: Your media lies to you. Every day. So do maps, and military recruiters. That's life in 21st Century 'Murica until we bleed them dry and build something new.
 
T

Teggy

Member
Carpe Carnim said:
Why are you concerned with where media companies—who have a monetary stake in perceptions of a close race—move colors on a board?

Pro Tip: Your media lies to you. Every day. So do maps, and military recruiters. That's life in 21st Century 'Murica until we bleed them dry and build something new.
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Because what if I missed a poll I could be wetting the bed about?
 
C

Chezzymann

Member
Carpe Carnim said:
Why are you concerned with where media companies—who have a monetary stake in perceptions of a close race—move colors on a board?

Pro Tip: Your media lies to you. Every day. So do maps, and military recruiters. That's life in 21st Century 'Murica until we bleed them dry and build something new.
Click to expand...
This kind of sounds like the same sentiment trump supporters had a couple weeks ago
 
B

Blader

Member
Early voted tonight. I realized it was the first time I've ever voted for president in-person; both of my Obama ballots were absentee.

Anyway, for what it's worth, +2 for Hillary/Kaine in MA.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
I need to dig up the 2012 thread cause I'm sure this horserace angle was the same then. IIRC, wasn't it 49/48 Romney on election day on RCP?

We always tell ourselves we won't fall for it and then, 4 years later, we all do.
 
S

sphagnum

Banned
Carpe Carnim said:
Why are you concerned with where media companies—who have a monetary stake in perceptions of a close race—move colors on a board?

Pro Tip: Your media lies to you. Every day. So do maps, and military recruiters. That's life in 21st Century 'Murica until we bleed them dry and build something new.
Click to expand...

That will always be the case under capitalism.
 
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