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PoliGAF 2016 |OT14| Attention NV shoppers, democracy is on sale in aisle 4!
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metalslimer
Member
I would bet money Nate has Clinton less than 60% by election day. 50 50 would be toone obvious. November 8 is the last day anyone will give a shit about 538 for years.
Also how many more polls do we need to show that this race is stagnant and has been locked in and the GOTV effort will determine whether it is a 5 or 8-9 point win
Also how many more polls do we need to show that this race is stagnant and has been locked in and the GOTV effort will determine whether it is a 5 or 8-9 point win
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Why does Twitter not ban Nazis?
This guy is a Nazi.
You should ban Nazis.
Instead, this guy has hundreds of retweets.
https://twitter.com/hateful_heretic/status/792700730754740224
This guy is a Nazi.
You should ban Nazis.
Instead, this guy has hundreds of retweets.
https://twitter.com/hateful_heretic/status/792700730754740224
If Nate is off, isn't everyone else off too ?
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Ayotte has given some really poor answers in this debate, but I don't think it will matter.
Hassan is not a great candidate.
Hassan is not a great candidate.
I expect trump's chances on nate's model to eventually decrease in the next few days or so. I don't think he's only going to be losing by like 4 points at this point.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
No. Wang and Cohn have models that are predicting the race differently than Silver.
A Link to the Past
Banned
Hassan is leading though right?
Nate's model has been a significant outlier for most of the election
Basileus777
Member
I don't understand why Trump's odd aren't dropping simply because there's less time for the polls to change. The election is in a few days, there should be less uncertainty every moment the race isn't fundamentally changing.
Officerrob
Banned
I think 538 is being dumped by ESPN (Disney) regardless after the election, ESPN is cutting back all over the place
What changed this election from last internally?
MetalGearZed
Member
Punished Nate is just out for revengence
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
It's a total toss up. I think Hassan is up 1% in Wang's model.
Basileus777
Member
Hassan is fine, she's just running against a fairly popular incumbent.
Because they're fucking idiots.
Just look at Vine. They have no idea what they're doing. They would rather keep the racists and misogynists than protect Twitter's relevance (which is basically the only valuable thing they have).
Hasphat'sAnts
Member
Dana Bash from CNN was here in the field office tonight.
It's okay we didn't give the Lame Stream Media any fodder
It's okay we didn't give the Lame Stream Media any fodder
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
She wanted to halt Syrian refugees from entering the country despite having no powers to do so. I think she was the only Democratic governor who did.
Yup. This is the only guy on the Trump team who you can tell has larger aspirations past next week.
Basileus777
Member
I don't think that has anything to do with the closeness of her Senate race. You said candidate, not Governor.
Maybe. I can see it being spun into ABC News instead of ESPN after the cycle; their sports analytics stuff always seemed to be a generation or two behind what everyone else was doing. Pretty irrelevant.
Yep. his main goal is to legitimize his viewpoints. He doesn't care if Trump wins or loses although a Trump presidency would most likely accelerate his goals. He knows the GOP is in a tough spot and he can do more to inject his movement into the mainstream.
Yeah this is my only comment. I get trends and partisan no response bias leading to systemic polling error but if you get clinton +2 +1 +3 in three polls five days from Election Day then that's pretty certain and consistent. Yes you can have systemic polling error caused by partisan nonresponse but that risk exists on literally every public survey. Every model should be extremely uncertain then.
Chezzymann
Member
In the last week the only national non daily tracking polls are
Reuters: Clinton+6
Economist: Clinton +3
NBC News: Clinton +7
FOX News: Clinton + 5
Why are people saying this race is super close again?
Reuters: Clinton+6
Economist: Clinton +3
NBC News: Clinton +7
FOX News: Clinton + 5
Why are people saying this race is super close again?
CoffeeJanitor
Member
Everyone freak out pls
That's cute, he thinks he'll still have an in to the GOP after he botched this campaign so thoroughly.
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eh, if anything, I think Brietbart will come out of this campaign a hell of a lot stronger than the GOP establishment. the party is all Brietbart now.
Because if they said it wasn't, people wouldn't watch their stuff?
Ratings.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Well she'a not a great Democrat than, if that sounds better to you.
It's getting pretty ridiculous now.
Does anybody have that gif of all the models trendlines throughout the year? Can't find it.
Because of the tracking polls.
Chezzymann
Member
Do those inherently lean more republican or something? Why do they make things seem so much closer?
I voted for the first time today in Florida. Democrat ticket all the way, and NO to all constitutional amendments except medical marijuana. I have been feeling really uneasy about the election since the FBI/Comey stuff resurfaced and Clinton started sliding in the polls. I was hoping getting my ballot in might ease my mind. It hasn't thus far, but I'm glad I got things done and out of the way.
No Trump supporters lurking around the polling site, less than a 15 minute wait.....which is pretty good considering it was around 5:30 and plenty of people were probably checking in after leaving work.
No Trump supporters lurking around the polling site, less than a 15 minute wait.....which is pretty good considering it was around 5:30 and plenty of people were probably checking in after leaving work.
ESPN. All his incentives changed. (I think this question's coming up daily now.)
Basileus777
Member
The site's man goal of applying statistical analysis and data analytics to areas outside of politics has largely been a failure. And the site's current writing staff isn't anything special, this isn't even a Grantland situation where there is a bunch of talent.
I was more confused why you changed the subject than anything.
metalslimer
Member
But she hasn't?
Yeah to be honest I was really excited for their sports analysis but man I was shocked with how terrible it ended up being outside of the occasional article.
Also am I the only one that finds Kander really cute?
shinra-bansho
Member
Does the garbage bin on your curb make your dinner rancid?
is adam's terrible taste rubbing off on ohio or has ohio's terrible taste rub off on adam?
he doesn't care about that. He's no doubt made his conspiracy theories and viewpoints even more normal. Clearly the GOP base is ok with a man like Trump and more than willing to vote for him.
Now just imagine a better candidate. Someone other than Trump spewing Alt right bullshit but just dressed nicely?
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
This is deep.
Black Mamba
Member
LOL
StopMakingSense
Member
Please proceed, jackasses.
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