Trump's numbers only go up when he gets ignored by the media and public.
You have to keep him in the spotlight.
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You have to keep him in the spotlight.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I'm just waiting for him to come out and say the polls are rigged.
theprodigy
Member
You guys REALLY need to stop looking at one single model, when you can look at six models at once.
NYT Upshot is the best aggregate to look at IMO. It shows you all of the other aggregates so you can compare and contrast, and it's not as volatile as 538 is.
Also my understanding is that RCP is way worse than 538. Nate's model has been pretty volatile lately but at least 538 is generally pretty accurate. RCP had Romney at +1.5 going into election day 2012.
(I am probably more forgiving towards 538 than most people here though I will say Nate's punditry has been insufferable this year.)
shinra-bansho
Member
So I missed it a few days ago among all the bedwetting, but Trump only had $16 million cash on hand as at 19-Oct with $2 million debt vs Clinton's $62 million??
It would be funny if his campaign ran out of cash. Another Trump bankruptcy.
It would be funny if his campaign ran out of cash. Another Trump bankruptcy.
Black Mamba
Member
Numbers coming in looking good in Florida, today.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Someone in the Trump campaign is probably doing "internal polling" where they just search the internet for good polls for Trump.
This guy is running a great scam except he won't get paid by Trump because Trump never pays anyone.
This guy is running a great scam except he won't get paid by Trump because Trump never pays anyone.
TestOfTide
Banned
"No I'm serious guys. I bet they REALLY hate Tim Kaine."
BreezyLimbo
Banned
If Clinton somehow manages to win with a Landslide
Do you think then, and only then will the GOP have to reevaluate what the hell they're doing?
Do you think then, and only then will the GOP have to reevaluate what the hell they're doing?
MetalGearZed
Member
you gotta aggregate your aggregates cuz. yodawg.jpg
Velcro Fly
Member
Going back to VA? Didn't they just pull out like two or three weeks ago?
The campaign strategy of throwing a bunch of shit at the wall and hoping it sticks happening again I guess.
The campaign strategy of throwing a bunch of shit at the wall and hoping it sticks happening again I guess.
Fenderputty
Banned
I've actually been so confident in a Hilllary win that I tried to bet my father in law tattoos. He's a Celtics fan and I'm a Lakers fan so he would have had to have a Lakers symbol on his shoulder the size of a post-it. I've offered multiple times too. Keep in mind this is because he wanted to bet me something Trump would win, he's just to chicken shit when it all came down to it.
Anoregon
The flight plan I just filed with the agency list me, my men, Dr. Pavel here. But only one of you!
Their base might not let them.
Absolutelyyyyy
Already Torn
Banned
Yes, I think they'll absolutely evaluate how the Democrats managed to rig the election. And they'll refuse to acknowledge Clinton as the rightful president until they get to the bottom of things.
RustyNails
Member
I mean no shit. He has no money. There's gonna be a fuckton of angry vendors at Trump's door after the election. The pollster is just the first one. He just doesnt have money and whats left he's burning through it by going to places like Michigan and New Mexico. All that $16m will go towards into his own pocket somehow through renting space in Trump Tower or paying his buddies Bannon and friends. Its coming.
They aren't changing shit until they lose Texas.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Not at all. They still win local races and will have the house for the foreseeable future.
Until they start losing more than just the White House, things will never change.
ryutaro's mama
Member
This is the only correct answer given.
metalslimer
Member
Trunp fucking called out Katy Tur at his rally today? What the fuck?
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
We have finally found an area where the GOP is united, Hillary is illegitimate and should be impeached.
https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/793960678449156097
Over... well, she sent emails and that's enough!
https://twitter.com/NickRiccardi/status/793960678449156097
Over... well, she sent emails and that's enough!
shinra-bansho
Member
Also he spent another $14 million on Giles-Parscale in 19 days. Seriously wtf.
newshinycd
Member
This. Their base picked Trump as the nominee. They know they have say in how the GOP runs at the national level now. That base isn't just going to leave now. Especially when Limbaugh, Bannon, Drudge, etc ratchet up the rhetoric about Democrats and Hillary after she is elected.
Manmademan
Member
here's the issue with RCP.
There's a bunch of polls there, but (IIRC) the only ones that actually are included in the average are the greyed out ones.
most of these are demonstrably terrible daily trackers- IBD/TIPP, LA Times/USC, ABC/Washpost, and Fox news for some reason.
This is an AWFUL way of creating a poll average. it's not going to be anywhere near accurate. If you want to look at it as a collection of polls that's fine- but the selection they list is fairly limited in the first place, and the ones they use to create their average are often flat out BAD.
Why is this? well...close races draw clicks. blowouts don't.
In contrast, this is what huffpost/pollster looks like right now (I didn't include everything in the screenshot):
far more polls taken included period, with none of the arbitrary inclusion or exclusion.
RCP has Clinton up an average of 1.7. Pollster has her at +6.
Which do you think is closer to the actual result?
That's a novel theory, but an intriguing one.
User 463088
Banned
These early voting Florida numbers today.
HNGGGGGGGGGGGG
(Duval is heavy GOP FYI. The fact that they're down to 1.3% is big. Obama will be there tomorrow.
HNGGGGGGGGGGGG
(Duval is heavy GOP FYI. The fact that they're down to 1.3% is big. Obama will be there tomorrow.
I know why LA Times is terrible. Why are the others terrible?
She really gets under his skin. The crowd immediately turned on her and started yelling insults while he did nothing to stop it. #ImWithTur
Manmademan
Member
yeah, I've been saying for months that florida wasn't going to be close at all, and the GOP were going to get blown out.
Polling is flat out wrong there.
Black Mamba
Member
ABC/WaPo tends to have a GOP lean, but it's not necessarily terrible. That said, it's new tracking poll makes no sense as last week it was like C +13. You don't go from that to T +1 in a week.
IDB/TIPP is fine.
Fox News is actually a good pollster.
But his general point, that they only look at a few polls, is correct. Makes no sense.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
My guess is there is a lot of weight in the chance-to-win model attached to the 50% popular vote threshold.
Obama was generally leading Romney by only two or three points but he was at or just above 50% for most of the election season.
Clinton's lead has been much higher overall but she has also hovered in the high 40s in the aggregate.
Brawndo Addict
Banned
Exactly, landslide is relative when you consider the fact that the House doesn't move, not to mention all the state/local races. Business as usual for everything but presidential politics if I'm a republican. And those trends were obvious even before Trump.
As a Viking fan that has Blair Walsh as a kicker The NY Times that saying Mrs. Clintons chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker missing a 36-yard field goal doesn't help my anxiety level at all.
I'm going to have to go through Silver's old 08 and 12 posts and juxtapose them with our new Pundit Nate.
Yeah those are great numbers. Dems might be ahead in a few days if that keeps up.
So there's a big TV here at work, and they are always at either Fox News or CNN. I ignore it as much as I can, which is most of the time as it's by the break area. But every time I wander by I can actually feel my stress levels rise as they are in constant panic/crisis mode. I'm trying to avoid this shit and I do NOT appreciate it. :\
newshinycd
Member
Why is Duval heavy GOP? Is Jacksonville not big enough to overcome the rural parts?
Manmademan
Member
IBD/TIPP has a laughably inaccurate tracker that always gets moved to the median on the last day of polling so they can put out press releases about how accurate they are.
Washington post called them out for this recently
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...-tied-says-he-isnt-worried-about-his-results/
Blumenthal of pollster called them out for this in 2008.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/hitting_a_bullet_with_a_bullet.html
They may be the absolute worst pollster in the business. Their results are clearly manipulated, and they aren't concerned about accuracy at all. It's pretty rare that mainstream media outlets stop what they're doing to say "this poll is complete bullshit" but here we are.
538 took them out behind the woodshed in regards to their non presidential polling as well- calling them flat out "not trustworthy" back in 09.
edit: LOL
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ibdtipp-doctors-poll-is-not-trustworthy/
ABC is in a different boat- their tracker is pretty new- the inaugural poll for that was just last week or so.
since then it's been engaged in wild 13 point swings with no clear reason why, in a week with no actual news. (this was before the FBI/Comey news hit.) No other poll not even trackers budged an inch.
There's something wrong with the methodology, but no one knows exactly what yet. it's too new.
Brawndo Addict
Banned
Ugh I had just gotten this out of my mind with our recent loss, thanks for the reminder 😬
banefirelord
Banned
Goddammit, I just learned I accidentally gave an alt-right asshat $30. What can I do to atone?
metalslimer
Member
I just can't wait for this to be over. Even with all the crap that's coming towards Hilary and even if we don't take the senate I'll at least be able to sleep easily at night. I haven't gotten a peaceful night of sleep in like a week.
FloydtheFathead
Member
Steve.. i need you do well this week so I can get in first for my fantasy league. I'm second now
After tonight....FIVE sleeps until we know the winner!
I had a bad thought...what if it comes down to like one state that takes forever to count. Ugh.
Well at least you have that 17 yard miss that went your way in the playoffs last year. That was one of the worst Viking losses ever after 2009 and 1998.
Give $30 to Jill Stein to balance it out
My on campus pub is hosting an election night special so at least we can drown our sorrows in cheap pitchers.
Finale Fireworker
Member
How did you accidentally do that?
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