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But she hasn't?

2 days ago she was at 260 EV on RealClearPolitics. Now she is down to 226 EV. Clinton won almost all Florida polls throughout Sept/Oct, but has lost or is only narrowly winning in the 10 most recent. North Carolina has me nervous as well, though I'm not sure how much faith to put in the Trump+7 and Trump+2 NC polls.

 

[Grexeno]

LOL

lolololololololololololololololololololololol

 

[Boke1879]

They really have no path and they are trying to flip any state now.

But seriously. Let them waste their time there.

 

[Geg]

Does anybody have that gif of all the models trendlines throughout the year? Can't find it.

https://twitter.com/jshkatz/status/793553664724140032

Can't find the non-twitter version

 

[metalslimer]

LOL

Lmao I hope they are getting paid at the time of service because they aren't getting shit. Please spend the rest of the campaign in blue wall states!

 

[balladofwindfishes]

2 days ago she was at 260 EV on RealClearPolitics. Now she is down to 226 EV. Clinton won almost all Florida polls throughout Sept/Oct, but has lost or is only narrowling winning in the 10 most recent. North Carolina has me nervous as well.

RCP is a bad site with a bad track record for being accurate

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Please proceed, jackasses.

Silver will be calling this a brilliant move in a tweet soon.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Do those inherently lean more republican or something? Why do they make things seem so much closer?

First off tracking polls tend to be less accurate because they don't screen out respondents as well. There also is a tendency for them to swing around wildly and it does appear that Trump closed the gap some in the last 2 - 3 weeks. If the national polls are correct and that's stopped the trackers should swing back to Clinton.

 

[Zukkoyaki]

2 days ago she was at 260 EV on RealClearPolitics. Now she is down to 226 EV. Clinton won almost all Florida polls throughout Sept/Oct, but has lost or is only narrowling winning in the 10 most recent. North Carolina has me nervous as well.

RCP is garbage and is getting heavily skewed by landline-only partisan polls

 

[hipsterpants]

LOL

if there is one benefit to this new e-mail fuckery it's that Trump now believes victory is in his grasp

Spoiler

probably because he watches CNN

and he will be legimitately shocked on the 8th

 

[Already Torn]

LOL

They're giving up on Cali already?

 

[HTupolev]

They really have no path and they are trying to flip any state now.

Since winning the "swing" stuff won't achieve the white house, they don't really have an option but to hope the polls are way off and try to drag one or two blue areas red enough to flip in that weird scenario. Or at least I'm assuming that's their line of thought.

 

[Mizerman]

LOL

Money (and time) well spent, Orange Man.

 

[Y2Kev]

Isn't the issue with Virginia that there are too many educated white people? Demographically it would seem to be a mess for trump. Rubio almost beat him there.

 

[Voysa Reezun]

I think 538 is being dumped by ESPN (Disney) regardless after the election, ESPN is cutting back all over the place

I've heard that Bill Simmons was the one to push ESPN to acquire 538, so you're probably right. The site doesn't have the guy who was vouching for it to help them.

Maybe Nate shows up and does a podcast for The Ringer or something. Hey, they've already got Favreau over there.

Isn't the issue with Virginia that there are too many educated white people? Demographically it would seem to be a mess for trump. Rubio almost beat him there.

From what I understand, it's not just the education levels, but that Northern Virginia is populated with government workers who don't like shutdowns or anti-federal-government screeds of the type that GOP candidates favor.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Isn't the issue with Virginia that there are too many educated white people? Demographically it would seem to be a mess for trump. Rubio almost beat him there.

NOVA + Blacks.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Silver will be calling this a brilliant move in a tweet soon.

"But what does the map look like if Trump flips Virginia???"

 

[GutsOfThor]

This is probably a stupid question but fuck it I'll ask it anyway:

What are the odds that many of these democratic ballots being cast in early voting are for trump?

This is just one example but there is a mexican family that lives on my aunt's street and she saw today that they have a big picture of trump with flowers all around him. This shocked my aunt to say the least since they were big supporters of Obama the past two elections and she knows they are Democrats.

 

[Godzilla's Left Toe]

LOL

Throwing shit at the wall must be fun.

 

[Farmboy]

I would bet money Nate has Clinton less than 60% by election day. 50 50 would be toone obvious. November 8 is the last day anyone will give a shit about 538 for years.

I mean, I get that Nate's model is probably too pessimistic and certainly too reactive. But at the end of the day he's just plugging numbers into it. Let's assume he's not deliberately manipulating things to get a certain result. That's veering into unskewing/conspiracy territory.

 

[Kangi]

LOL

 

[newshinycd]

if there is one benefit to this new e-mail fuckery it's that Trump now believes victory is in his grasp

Spoiler

probably because he watches CNN

and he will be legimitately shocked on the 8th

Trump is gonna be piiissed when he losses. Can't wait.

 

[Poodlestrike]

LOL

These are the internals they're getting after they finished screwing over one of their pollsters to the tune of 3/4 of a million bucks, yeah?

Hmmmmmmmm

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Also, I don't think it was an internal poll at all. I think it was that bullshit Hampton University poll. Kind of like how Conway says their internal polling matches the average of all the PA polls released today, conveniently.

 

[kevin1025]

if there is one benefit to this new e-mail fuckery it's that Trump now believes victory is in his grasp

Spoiler

probably because he watches CNN

and he will be legimitately shocked on the 8th

It also means we'll have more Trump, with his non-concession, demand for recounts, suing everything that breathes, etc.

That Black Mirror White Christmas mute button should exist for Trump.

 

[whyamihere]

OK...the PA GOTV machine has just gone bananas

Cyndi Lauper, Debra Messing, Katie McGinty and Ed Rendell to go on gay bar crawl to get out the vote

Ahahahahaha

 

[Boke1879]

This is probably a stupid question but fuck it I'll ask it anyway:

What are the odds that many of these democratic ballots being cast in early voting are for trump?

This is just one example but there is a mexican family that lives on my aunt's street and she saw today that they have a big picture of trump with flowers all around him. This shocked my aunt to say the least since they were big supporters of Obama the past two elections and she knows they are Democrats.

Negligible at best. You could ask yourself the same for Reps who despise Trump but vote for Clinton.

 

[banefirelord]

Since Virginia doesn't have non-absentee early voting, I guess it makes some amount of sense to make a half-hearted play. No one's literally ballot-locked yet.

Spoiler

*snort* lookit this dummy what is he even doing

 

[Manmademan]

Ahahahahaha

laugh all you want, I'm going

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Trump supporters in Pensacola shout: "Lock her up!" Florida Attorney General Pam Bondi: "Let the FBI do that after their investigation."

A little bit bold for AG Bondi to be calling for a politician to be imprisoned.

https://twitter.com/wpjenna/status/793959855425892352

I mean, she has her history and her boss is Rick Scott.

 

[Black Mamba]

Also, I don't think it was an internal poll at all. I think it was that bullshit Hampton University poll. Kind of like how Conway says their internal polling matches the average of all the PA polls released today, conveniently.

Good point. There's a chance they don't have any internal polling and are using the public polls because Trump won't pay for polling when someone else does it. So in a way, public polls are their internal polls.

lol.

 

[Maxim726X]

Because of the tracking polls.

Man, what happened to Nate's model?

I thought that people were just uncomfortable with his results, but at this point you really have to question his methodology.

Particularly after the BamBam post earlier in the thread. Really doesn't make any sense.

 

[mo60]

This is probably a stupid question but fuck it I'll ask it anyway:

What are the odds that many of these democratic ballots being cast in early voting are for trump?

This is just one example but there is a mexican family that lives on my aunt's street and she saw today that they have a big picture of trump with flowers all around him. This shocked my aunt to say the least since they were big supporters of Obama the past two elections and she knows they are Democrats.

Probably close to 0%. Trump is not going to win much past 5 or 6 percent of democrats nationally.

 

[BadRNG]

LOL

Is their internal pollster Hampton university? They had a +5 T today

 

[RustyNails]

So if orange turd attempts to incite a coup if he loses can the FBI arrest him?

Dierce, can you call him orange amoeba instead? I know its only 5 days left. But seeing that term in all your posts is irritating.

 

[Rockin' Ranger]

What if Nate's model ends up being considerably off in its prediction? Will ESPN shitcan him? Now that Mona Chalabi doesn't write for his site, it's basically worthless. Maybe Harry Enten can be free!

ESPN cares about clicks, not accuracy.

 

[border]

RCP is a bad site with a bad track record for being accurate

RCP is garbage and is getting heavily skewed by landline-only partisan polls

I already switched from 538 to RCP. It seems like no matter what poll aggregator I go to there's someone telling me that it is biased and skewed and should not be at all trusted.

That said, I usually just go to these sites to look at the collection of polls, not to really consider their picture of the overall election. It often seems weirdly arbitrary the way they weight things. 538 was giving Trump points in polls he lost earlier in the year.....RCP thought Georgia is a "toss up".....etc,etc.

 

[newshinycd]

I mean, I get that Nate's model is probably too pessimistic and certainly too reactive. But at the end of the day he's just plugging numbers into it. Let's assume he's not deliberately manipulating things to get a certain result. That's veering into unskewing/conspiracy territory.

I wouldn't even call it a model anymore. PEC is a model. 538 is a poll aggregator.

 

[Good Job Bob]

Anyone else feel like Hillary's speeches are much too aggressive recently? Her recent speeches are pretty much 100% her attacking Trump, I thought she had a better balance prior to the FBI stuff.

 

[Tobor]

I just watched CNN for a half an hour and no one has mentioned emails once.

Think we might be over the hump!

 

[whyamihere]

LOL

My favorite tradition is Republicans making last minute quixotic pushes into solid blue states in the last week of an election.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

LOL

When I read this, I imagined KellyAnne waving Mike Pence and Trump over to a hard copy of the internals she is holding.

"Mr. Trump, I thought for sure that Virginia was out of play but I double checked my numbers and you...are...not...gonna believe this!"

She hands him the paper and Trump inspects it with a raised eyebrow.

"Pence, fire up the plane..." with a grin.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Dierce, can you call him orange amoeba instead? I know its only 5 days left. But seeing that term in all your posts is irritating.

Ha, thought I was the only one.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Also, I don't think it was an internal poll at all. I think it was that bullshit Hampton University poll. Kind of like how Conway says their internal polling matches the average of all the PA polls released today, conveniently.

It's like when a teacher starts feeding answers to a student who obviously hasn't read/studied whatever it is they're talking about.

"So polling today has Hillary up 4 in Pennsylvania-"
"Uh, yeah of course! That's what I got too."

(Insert beautiful and talented comment here)

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Reminder that Rick Scott stole a fuckton of money from Medicare.

http://www.politifact.com/florida/s...cott-rick-scott-oversaw-largest-medicare-fra/

 

[GutsOfThor]

Negligible at best. You could ask yourself the same for Reps who despise Trump but vote for Clinton.

Good point.

Probably close to 0%. Trump is not going to win much past 5 or 6 percent of democrats nationall.

I kind of figured he would win some Dems but it's just shocking to me that Mexican family could support him after everything that has been said and done.

 

[whyamihere]

Also, I don't think it was an internal poll at all. I think it was that bullshit Hampton University poll. Kind of like how Conway says their internal polling matches the average of all the PA polls released today, conveniently.

I actually thought the same thing!

 

[RustyNails]

Silver will be calling this a brilliant move in a tweet soon.

Nate's tweets have been total open ended punditry nonsense. It will be something like "Trump is losing in all VA polls but could see opening because trendz/comey"

Total garbage. Man is lost.

 

[samn]

I already switched from 538 to RCP. It seems like no matter what poll aggregator I go to there's someone telling me that it is biased and skewed and should not be at all trusted.

That said, I usually just go to these sites to look at the collection of polls, not to really consider their picture of the overall election. It often seems weirdly arbitrary the way they weight things. 538 was giving Trump points in polls he lost earlier in the year.....RCP thought Georgia is a "toss up".....etc,etc.

Obviously the gold standard in polling analysis is the community thread on NeoGAF. forget all these 'experts'

 

[nature boy]

LOL

"internal poll" is probably that dumbass VA poll that puts him up +3

Please proceed