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[Plinko]

Yes despite the NV firewall let's give him that state just because *snort*

CNN doesn't operate on early voting numbers, though. They're just going by their recent poll that had Trump up by like 7.

 

[Diablos]

CNN doesn't operate on early voting numbers, though. They're just going by their recent poll that had Trump up by like 7.

Well that's dumb. When you have the data you use it

 

[lyrick]

Is it really that close or is CNN chicken little?

Signs point to they got a taste of what leaning to the right does to your ratings. I'm guessing they want to hold onto that Fox News Lite audience.

 

[sazzy]

Is it really that close or is CNN chicken little?

Look at NC on the map.

Look at the banner headline at the bottom of the screen.

You decide

 

[Plinko]

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood 48m48 minutes ago

5 days out, balance of evidence indicates Clinton's popular-vote lead (narrow) and electoral-vote edge (larger) are holding

.

 

[Y2Kev]

.

This guy is just listening to sweet nothings from (((globalists))).

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Ohio showing some life?

@tbonier OH: Cuyahoga and Franklin continue to surge back to '12 levels. Chart shows share of EV/AV relative to '12 final share from 10/20 to 11/2. https://t.co/IL6rKgdBnh

https://twitter.com/DemFromCT/status/794146635240632320

 

[nature boy]

Nick Gourevitch ‏@nickgourevitch 7m7 minutes ago
Would check field dates of any public phone poll as you interpret it. Pretty clear last weekend = Trump-friendly (likely non response bias)

Kev, control your heart!

 

[Y2Kev]

YAAAAS NONRESPONSE BIAS LEADING TO SYSTEMIC POLLING ERROR

ONLY IN THE OPPOSITE WAY NATE THINKS

 

[Y2Kev]

But that does imply clinton never led big

Or never was really losing

 

[shinra-bansho]

What if there is nonresponse bias leading to systemic polling error for both simultaneously? Is it like when you poor boiling water on dry ice?

 

[stanis]

Bookmark this: http://votecastr.us/

if you want to follow voting results/projections throughout the day.

thanks!

 

[nature boy]

Whoa Schale tweeted the Biden.gif about early voting yesterday in FL

MEGA

 

[Abinash117]

Political Polls – ‏@PpollingNumbers
@QuinnipiacPoll, Among Early Voters: North Carolina: Clinton 58 (+22) Trump 36 #Ohio: Clinton 58 (+26) Trump 32 http://bit.ly/2fiAr9v

Don't know if this was posted yesterday, but very big leads among early voters. It reflects FL and some other states in terms of massive lead.

 

[PBY]

Which polls? Most of them have been really good

This NH poll that has her losing

 

[Diablos]

I'm still waiting for the FBI to drop some last minute bullshit on, say, Friday afternoon. I'm almost expecting it at this point.

Consider this. Obama initially spoke rather respectfully of Comey after he sent his stupid letter to the House GOP. But then he did a complete 180 and basically called them out on it. He's also starting to kind of show this when he's on the stump. This is out of character for him. It almost leaves the impression that something made Obama change his tone between his first statement and what he last said in that interview. Could be that he sees something he doesn't like in polling or he knows something we don't.

 

[Tal Shiar Agent]

Oh jeez. PEC's Bayesian number this morning is 100%.

 

[Pyrokai]

So, all these early voting numbers on the number of Dems v Reps, etc.....it doesn't necessarily show WHO they voted for, right? Just their party affiliation? I know the correlation is probably high, but I'm just wondering.

 

[JHoNNy1OoO]

Woah. Murphy on CNN.

 

[teruterubozu]

So, all these early voting numbers on the number of Dems v Reps, etc.....it doesn't necessarily show WHO they voted for, right? Just their party affiliation? I know the correlation is probably high, but I'm just wondering.

Yup, they only know the number of votes, nothing else. The Dem vs. Rep count is all presumed through demographics, voting patterns, etc. So basically how early independent voters are voting is completely unknown.

 

[Plinko]

I'm still waiting for the FBI to drop some last minute bullshit on, say, Friday afternoon. I'm almost expecting it at this point.

Consider this. Obama initially spoke rather respectfully of Comey after he sent his stupid letter to the House GOP. But then he did a complete 180 and basically called them out on it. He's also starting to kind of show this when he's on the stump. This is out of character for him. It almost leaves the impression that something made Obama change his tone between his first statement and what he last said in that interview. Could be that he sees something he doesn't like in polling or he knows something we don't.

More likely he just sees the partisan BS republicans are trying to pull to influence a general election.

 

[Cerium]

Dems basically flat in NC now. Good considering voter suppression efforts and registration drop. NPA doing extremely well. I think she's got a 2 point lead or so. Needs to finish strong.

Need McCrory and Burr to go down too or I won't be satisfied.

Obama initially spoke rather respectfully of Comey after he sent his stupid letter to the House GOP. But then he did a complete 180 and basically called them out on it. He's also starting to kind of show this when he's on the stump. This is out of character for him. It almost leaves the impression that something made Obama change his tone between his first statement and what he last said in that interview. Could be that he sees something he doesn't like in polling or he knows something we don't.

I noticed this too, but I don't think it's foreshadowing of more FBI sabotage.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I'm still waiting for the FBI to drop some last minute bullshit on, say, Friday afternoon. I'm almost expecting it at this point.

Consider this. Obama initially spoke rather respectfully of Comey after he sent his stupid letter to the House GOP. But then he did a complete 180 and basically called them out on it. He's also starting to kind of show this when he's on the stump. This is out of character for him. It almost leaves the impression that something made Obama change his tone between his first statement and what he last said in that interview. Could be that he sees something he doesn't like in polling or he knows something we don't.

There's something going on here.

 

[Makai]

Sam Wang's model has Hillary at 100%. He put out a correction that she's merely at >99%

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Yea, I fully expect FBI to drop something too.

We already have that supposed indictment coming soon on Clinton Foundation probe.

 

[RustyNails]

Whoa Schale tweeted the Biden.gif about early voting yesterday in FL

MEGA

Which biden gif?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

When we actually have the results, I'll be interested to see who had the smallest standard error on the forecast for each states' popular vote result - 538 or PEC.

 

[Y2Kev]

Yea, I fully expect FBI to drop something too.

We already have that supposed indictment coming soon on Clinton Foundation probe.

the FBI cannot indict. If you think the doj is going to go through with this five days before an election I would be very surprised!

 

[Grym]

So did Wikileaks dump anything yesterday/last night? (Trump said he would talk about it today).

 

[Emarv]

I'm beginning to believe in a scenario where Hillary sweeps almost all the swing states, and we get back every Senate seat EXCEPT for Rubio.

Having to be stuck with his lame ass seems like the perfect final joke of 2016.

 

[Genius at Work]

Don't worry guys, the Senate might be able to keep President Trump in check. According to 538 there's more chance of Democrats winning the senate than Hillary Clinton becoming president.

 

[RustyNails]

Good morning fellow bed wetters. I'm going to Costco later today. How many boxes of Pampers do I need for this weekend?

Costco doesn't carry Pampers. They carry Huggies.

 

[Plinko]

Didn't the DOJ file a complaint against Comey for how he handled the release last week? I would think that would make the DOJ issuing an indictment extremely unlikely at this point in the election cycle.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

the FBI cannot indict. If you think the doj is going to go through with this five days before an election I would be very surprised!

I know, but that is not what the supposed FBI leaks were. So FBI will recommend indictment or whatever.

Some more vagueish statement from Comey.

 

[kadotsu]

the FBI cannot indict. If you think the doj is going to go through with this five days before an election I would be very surprised!

They could hold a press conference and say that they suggest an indictment, which does the same, politically.

 

[TumblingHippo]

It would feel like the most cosmic disaster

Spoiler

fuckery

for a candidate to be ahead 99% of an election to lose it in the final week.

A year ago I knew they'd go for the horse race thing as much as possible but even knowing that it all still fills the air with anxiety, so I'll just relax by worrying about my interview the morning of the 9th.

 

[Emarv]

I swear, guys. If today is just a thread about a possible indictment enabled by a new Wikileaks dump perpetrated by Weiner himself, I'm gonna.....call mom and tell her! Get it together!

 

[Diablos]

the FBI cannot indict. If you think the doj is going to go through with this five days before an election I would be very surprised!

I think (I hope) everyone here knows the DoJ won't act on it. Has more to do with, yes, optics and the impression it would leave on voters heading into Election Day when you have the FBI recommending indictment

 

[shinra-bansho]

Maybe the FBI will indict her for forging Obama's birth certificate using the blood of Vince Foster.

 

[TestOfTide]

I keep saying and I will say it one more time:

Fire Comey and then give the position to Bill Weld. Weld can probably clean the DoJ up considering the last time he worked for it he rightfully ratted out a corrupt AG.

 

[Pixieking]

Yea, I fully expect FBI to drop something too.

We already have that supposed indictment coming soon on Clinton Foundation probe.

I would wait for proper sourcing or a proper paper/news association independently reporting this before worrying, since it's both "Fox News" and "two anonymous sources with close ties". I personally think this is just alt-righters within the FBI bullshitting. For instance:

5. FBI sources say with 99% accuracy that Hillary Clinton's server has been hacked by at least five foreign intelligence agencies, and that information had been taken from it.

(From: Bret Baier: FBI Sources Believe Clinton Foundation Case Moving Towards "Likely an Indictment" )

Seems a bit unlikely, and very much just stirring-up shit.

 

[Slayven]

I had a panic attack thinking that all those people are showing up to not vote for hillary. That the numbers are right and wrong at the same time

I would wait for proper sourcing or a proper paper/news association independently reporting this before putting any credence into this, since it's both "Fox News" and "two anonymous sources with close ties". I personally think this is just alt-righters within the FBI bullshitting. For instance:



(From: Bret Baier: FBI Sources Believe Clinton Foundation Case Moving Towards "Likely an Indictment" )

Seems a bit unlikely, and very much just stirring-up shit.

Didn't they say the clintion server had not been breached? Comey during his press conference

 

[Diablos]

I keep saying and I will say it one more time:

Fire Comey and then give the position to Bill Weld. Weld can probably clean the DoJ up considering the last time he worked for it he rightfully ratted out a corrupt AG.

Fire Comey and give it to a Democrat. Sorry. Can't take any more risks.

 

[Emarv]

Reminder today, early voting is giving us a super clear picture this year in many states.


(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
Something like 60%+ of NV has already voted. Numbers are consistent with a Clinton win, unless there's something funky is up.

 

[nature boy]

Which biden gif?

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/794005768110559232

 

[Pixieking]

I had a panic attack thinking that all those people are showing up to not vote for hillary. That the numbers are right and wrong at the same time



Didn't they say the clintion server had not been breached? Comey during his press conference

Yes. Which is why it's almost-certain to be bullshitting. Why leak to Fox News otherwise? WaPo/NYT/CNN are all more respected, and more likely to turn-heads. But of course they'd also source and vet news properly, too.

 

[TestOfTide]

Fire Comey and give it to a Democrat. Sorry. Can't take any more risks.

We are talking about a guy who has been unofficially stumping for Hillary.

This isn't like appointing some neoconservative. This is appointing a dude who calls the emails crap a "witch hunt".

And if he's FBI Director, we don't have to worry about him running for Warren's senate seat.

 

[Hydrophobic]

Didn't they say the clintion server had not been breached? Comey during his press conference

This is freaking me out a bit, but I don't know what they would have discovered now that they didn't discover before that would indicate the server was hacked. That's how I'm keeping myself calm about it.

 

[Pyrokai]

Yup, they only know the number of votes, nothing else. The Dem vs. Rep count is all presumed through demographics, voting patterns, etc. So basically how early independent voters are voting is completely unknown.

Okay, cool. Thanks!

 

[Paches]

Reminder today, early voting is giving us a super clear picture this year in many states.


(((Harry Enten)))
@ForecasterEnten
Something like 60%+ of NV has already voted. Numbers are consistent with a Clinton win, unless there's something funky is up.

Yet on their site Nevada is essentially a toss up. Lol.