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[Realyst]

So...now that the World Series is over, oppo should drop today. Right?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Isn't it normal for polls to tighten a bit right before electiob anyways?

It happens about half the time. The other half, they widen. Depends which way undecided voters break.

Shifts are normal, certainly, as people are forced to make up their minds, it's just the direction that is relatively unpredictable. That's what is causing 538's model to be so uncertain. There are an awful lot of undecided voters very late in the race.

 

[lyrick]

Isn't it normal for polls to tighten a bit right before electiob anyways?

I seemingly remember this but need data to back up my memory.

 

[A Link to the Past]

Starting with 1909, the World Series has predicted the Presidential election wins. It can't be coincidence that a Cubs win and a female President occurred in the same year

 

[Blader]

Starting with 1909, the World Series has predicted the Presidential election wins. It can't be coincidence that a Cubs win and a female President occurred in the same year

I was about to ask how the Cubs winning predicts a Hillary win, but then I remembered she was born in Chicago.

 

[Hyoukokun]

Lurker dropping in to note that it appears my folks (long-time staunch republicans) bit the bullet and voted Hillary in Maine. They weren't happy about their choices, but preferred to vote against the possibility of a Trump presidency.

I'm voting for her in MA myself without reservations. Need to do my homework on the local candidates before I go in, though I know where I stand on most of the proposals that are on the ballot.

 

[TumblingHippo]

There are two NH polls coming today. The one this morning shows Trump +1. I'm assuming the other is a Hillary lead. The Trump +1 had a 4.5% MoE fwiw.

If I were to go by how cable news reports it, margin of error ONLY means it can swing in the favor of the trailing opponent.

 

[A Link to the Past]

I was about to ask how the Cubs winning predicts a Hillary win, but then I remembered she was born in Chicago.

Cubs don't get win the World Series = man wins

Cubs win the World Series = woman wins

It's basic math

I guess technically Jill Stein could win in this formula

 

[teruterubozu]

Starting with 1909, the World Series has predicted the Presidential election wins. It can't be coincidence that a Cubs win and a female President occurred in the same year

But it could also mean Ohio is flipping red.

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

Is it possible that in general people being polled are much more sensitive to news headlines and that's why we are seeing a disconnect between polls and early voting?

 

[Phased]

Does Nate own 538 or could all the reasonable people kick him off the team?

Like it's not even subtle anymore, Nate it at peak "HORSE RACE" bullshit. I don't know if it's because he doesn't want to admit to wanting Trump to win or if he just has PTSD from making a fool of himself during the primaries, but someone needs to intervene and tell him that he needs to accept the fact that Trump won the primaries and Hillary will win this Tuesday.

I think Nate is tied to 538 for better or worse at this point regardless of who owns it.

It's weird cause I seem to remember him saying it's in everyone's best interest that it appears like a horse race, and then he proceeds to paint it like a horse race despite evidence pointing to it not being close.

It's like he laid out the trap pundits tend to fall into, saying "man that's really dumb" then proceeded to immediately walk into it.

 

[teruterubozu]

Is it possible that in general people being polled are much more sensitive to news headlines and that's why we are seeing a disconnect between polls and early voting?

The problem is both stats are unreliable, especially early voting.

 

[Boke1879]

I was about to ask how the Cubs winning predicts a Hillary win, but then I remembered she was born in Chicago.

Not to mention she predicted the win her damn self

 

[Blader]

edit: wait, never mind.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

The problem is both stats are unreliable, especially early voting.

Early voting isn't necessarily unreliable. We know how many of a specific party voted, so it's not hard to figure out the general idea of how things are moving based on that.

 

[Barzul]

National @morningconsult/politico Poll:

Phone:
Clinton 52 (+5)
Trump 47

Online:
Clinton 51 (+3)
Trump 48

A common mantra of Donald Trump’s surrogates during the general election has been that many polls are underestimating the Republican nominee’s appeal, because there are a number of shy voters who back Trump but won’t admit it publicly. And those voters, the theory goes, will help swing the election his way on Nov. 8.

To test the theory, we partnered with POLITICO to follow up on our December study examining why Republican voters were more likely to back Trump in online polls than phone surveys. Here’s what we found: Those shy Trump voters do exist — but there aren’t enough of them to spring a surprise victory for him on Election Day.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

Not to mention she predicted the win her damn self

They call her Mrs. World Series

 

[Plinko]

Sam SteinVerified account
‏@samsteinhp
Reuters/Ipsos state polls

Mich: HRC 40, DJT 36
Ohio: HRC 43, DJT 39
PA: HRC 45, DJT 39

I am not anywhere near comfortable with Michigan being within 4. Not after what happened in the primaries.

Ohio would be amazing, though, and end it early.

 

[Y2Kev]

Shy trumpy

 

[teruterubozu]

Early voting isn't necessarily unreliable. We know how many of a specific party voted, so it's not hard to figure out the general idea of how things are moving based on that.

Sure, but it's still guesswork based on voting patterns and demographics. For example, how an independent votes in early voting is completely unknown.

 

[A Serious Man]

If we learned one thing from Comey-gate, it's that the DoJ is totally against announcing anything before the election. They warned Comey against sending a vague letter, you really think they're going to announce an indictment?

 

[AniHawk]

Not to mention she predicted the win her damn self

hillary rigged both the election and the world series?

 

[nature boy]

Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 1h1 hour ago
My wife, Melania, will be speaking in Pennsylvania this afternoon. So exciting, big crowds! I will be watching from North Carolina.

Vonderful, darling

Bill MitchellVerified account
‏@mitchellvii
All of the "weird little indicators" point Trump:
1) Stock Market: Trump
2) Cubs Win: Trump
3) Yard Signs: Trump
4) Halloween Masks: Trump

 

[Barzul]

Not enough "shy" Trumpers to swing an election, but we already knew that.

 

[BSsBrolly]

I'm full of optimism this morning, 5 days and this will finally be over. Can't wait to hear the Trump whining. His meltdown should be epic.

 

[tedrotheredro]

Hmmmmm. From the Daily Beast article detailing the partisan witch hunt in the FBI and from the NY office's ex-director:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...op-fbi-fanboy.html?via=desktop&source=twitter

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Sure, but it's still guesswork based on voting patterns and demographics. For example, how an independent votes in early voting is completely unknown.

We can make educated guesses as to who they are voting for based on demographics of independents. We have a very good idea that Hillary is doing very well in early voting.

 

[newshinycd]

I'm full of optimism this morning, 5 days and this will finally be over. Can't wait to hear the Trump whining. His meltdown should be epic.

I don't have enough bottles saved up to gather all the Republican tears.

 

[Carpe Carnim]

Sure, but it's still guesswork based on voting patterns and demographics. For example, how an independent votes in early voting is completely unknown.

It's pretty informed guessing. For instance, if we know the age, location and ethnicity of a NPA voter in a particular community, we can make detailed assumptions about the general skew of their political preference.

I'm thinking of young Boricua in Polk County FL as an example.

Of course, this requires data, and some states provide more than others, so some races provide more certainty than if you were trying to make braod-brush assessments of how all Indys in the Country will break-down.

 

[User 463088]

I feel like that Morning Consult thing is kind of stupid, in that there are a lot of reasons why you may get a slightly different margin in a phone vs online poll that has little to do with a shy Trump effect. Like, in the primaries, Bernie almost always did better in online polling than he did in phone surveys. It wasn't because there were shy Bernie supporters, it was that these polls were better at reaching his demographics than Hillary's. So, I guess I find that poll interesting but not significant....although I like her over 50 in both!

 

[Tal Shiar Agent]

Not enough "shy" Trumpers to swing an election, but we already knew that.

Isn't the unfavorability rating so high for both that there is an equal or greater likelihood of Shy Hillary voters?


Anecdotal, but my neighbor (an old Cold Warrior) put up a Trump sign early on but recently told me he was going to vote Hillary after more evidence of a Trump-Russia connection came out but won't take down his sign out of fear for his reputation (weirdly).

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Isn't the unfavorability rating so high for both that there is an equal or greater likelihood of Shy Hillary voters?

Her unfavorability rating has increased. It's not really anything out of the ordinary anymore as far as I remember.

 

[Slayven]

I feel like that Morning Consult thing is kind of stupid, in that there are a lot of reasons why you may get a slightly different margin in a phone vs online poll that has little to do with a shy Trump effect. Like, in the primaries, Bernie almost always did better in online polling than he did in phone surveys. It wasn't because there were shy Bernie supporters, it was that these polls were better at reaching his demographics than Hillary's. So, I guess I find that poll interesting but not significant....although I like her over 50 in both!

It's my uneducated guess is that phone people would be more likely to vote because they are probably older.

 

[Plinko]

Hmmmmm. From the Daily Beast article detailing the partisan witch hunt in the FBI and from the NY office's ex-director:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...op-fbi-fanboy.html?via=desktop&source=twitter

Not surprised at all. It is clear the GOP used the FBI to try and swing an election.

I wish this was getting more play. It is a colossal story.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

I feel like that Morning Consult thing is kind of stupid, in that there are a lot of reasons why you may get a slightly different margin in a phone vs online poll that has little to do with a shy Trump effect. Like, in the primaries, Bernie almost always did better in online polling than he did in phone surveys. It wasn't because there were shy Bernie supporters, it was that these polls were better at reaching his demographics than Hillary's. So, I guess I find that poll interesting but not significant....although I like her over 50 in both!

Yeah, there's literally nothing to draw from that poll except Hillary +3 - 5.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Hmmmmm. From the Daily Beast article detailing the partisan witch hunt in the FBI and from the NY office's ex-director:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...op-fbi-fanboy.html?via=desktop&source=twitter

It's not new for FBI news to spread around DC before they make an announcement. I expect the WH, Paul Ryan, and some others knew about this in advance.

 

[BotoxAgent]

I am hoping this plays out like the California primary. It looked like Bernie was closing in some polls but Hillary pretty much dominated anyway.

 

[djplaeskool]

Vonderful, darling

I need to take a spare twitter account and follow a bunch of conservative pundits and talking heads, just to get the meltdown in a chaotic stream of consciousness.

 

[jmdajr]

Hmmmmm. From the Daily Beast article detailing the partisan witch hunt in the FBI and from the NY office's ex-director:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...op-fbi-fanboy.html?via=desktop&source=twitter

I read that wrong for a second. I thought even more shit was dropping.

 

[funkystudent]

My guess is the FBI have nothing but they will continue / not technically stop the investigation for as long as Hillary is in power as a way to give the Republicans some moral high ground to stonewall her SCOTUS pick

"We wont allow a president who is under investigation from the FBI to appoint a new judge"

 

[jmdajr]

My guess is the FBI have nothing but they will continue / not technically stop the investigation for as long as Hillary is in power as a way to give the Republicans some moral high ground to stonewall her SCOTUS pick

"We wont allow a president who is under investigation from the FBI to appoint a new judge"

Does is it matter if Dems have Senate majority?

 

[Carpe Carnim]

Not surprised at all. It is clear the GOP used the FBI to try and swing an election.

I wish this was getting more play. It is a colossal story.

If it's accurate, and the head of the FBI went along with a group of partisan agents to tip the election to Trump, they've made a simple calculation: How likely is Clinton to aggressively push for Comey's resignation, and then proceed to pursue these partisan agents when she knows they have the motivation to go on FOX the same day and start blabbing and then write tell-alls under a Conservative imprint?

 

[Blader]

Does is it matter if Dems have Senate majority?

Until Schumer nukes the 60 vote threshold, then it would matter.

 

[Poodlestrike]

It's not new for FBI news to spread around DC before they make an announcement. I expect the WH, Paul Ryan, and some others knew about this in advance.

Cesare, you're supposed to be "in the know." Is oppo gonna droppo or what?

 

[Skiptastic]

So does the Cleveland loss mean Ohio is going to vote Trump just so they can burn it all to the ground?

Or does it mean Trump will pull out of Ohio, because he doesn't like losers?

 

[Laevateinn]

Nothing would make me happier than a talking filibuster and no filibustering appointments.

 

[User 463088]

Yeah, there's literally nothing to draw from that poll except Hillary +3 - 5.

Even the individual questions don't really follow a pattern. People who did the survey online said they were less likely to put out a yard sign, buy a hat, attend a rally, or post nice things online about Trump, When you look at those questions for Hillary, it looks more like a shy Hillary voter than a shy Trump voter. Which, you know, considering some of Trump's supporters are scary hackers doing the cyber, kind of makes sense!

 

[Beer Monkey]

+1 for Hillary and a straight (D) ticket in Cincinnati, OH. Paid $5 to park next door to the BOE since all the free spaces were taken. Will download the latest CSV file in two days to make sure my ballot has been accepted and that the GOTV effort knows I'm done.

So does the Cleveland loss mean Ohio is going to vote Trump just so they can burn it all to the ground?

Or does it mean Trump will pull out of Ohio, because he doesn't like losers?

I captured this data the other day for Hamilton County (Cincinnati), which went for Obama by 3% in 2012.

Party 2012 Ret   2016 Ret  Pct Chg
NON    27,231     29,516      8%
REP    20,701     24,788     20%
DEM    19,512     21,428     10%
GRE        60         57     -5%
LIB        23         20    -13%

 

[SlimySnake]

Hmmmmm. From the Daily Beast article detailing the partisan witch hunt in the FBI and from the NY office's ex-director:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...op-fbi-fanboy.html?via=desktop&source=twitter

If we learned one thing from Comey-gate, it's that the DoJ is totally against announcing anything before the election. They warned Comey against sending a vague letter, you really think they're going to announce an indictment?

yeah, it seems to me that there are some very pissed off republicans in the FBI who want to lock her up. thankfully the DoJ head is a democrat and they will never let any indictments happen. Comey will get replaced in the next few weeks with a dem as well so it wont even get out of the FBI.

 

[Laevateinn]

So does the Cleveland loss mean Ohio is going to vote Trump just so they can burn it all to the ground?

Or does it mean Trump will pull out of Ohio, because he doesn't like losers?

National league win means Clinton has the Presidency. As for Ohio, baseball fans are slightly more Republican than Democratic so depressed fans not voting means a few points towards Clinton there.